1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and stop - profit, and left - side ambush for Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices slump sharply [2]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the current situation is weak but may improve in the peak season [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average. The price range is narrowing, and it is advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. A neutral approach is recommended, and partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 position is suggested [10]. - For PVC, the overall situation is supply - strong and demand - weak with high valuations. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, and the fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - In the case of styrene, the market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and port inventories are decreasing. The price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. But inventory pressure and seasonal factors exist. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost may dominate the market. It is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. - For PX, the load is high, and downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance. However, due to new PTA installations, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. There is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term. It is recommended to follow crude oil to go long on dips [18][19]. - For PTA, supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving, and it is recommended to follow PX to go long on dips when the peak - season demand improves [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply load is decreasing, and downstream load is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing, but the industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.14, or 0.22%, to $63.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.33, or 0.50%, to $66.46; INE main crude oil futures fell 3.70 yuan, or 0.76%, to 482.6 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase. Gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 90.14 million barrels, a 1.97% decrease. Diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 104.59 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. Total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 2.77 million barrels to 194.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production capacity is increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 18, the 01 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 1754 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production has started to increase, and although enterprise profits are low, they are expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and consolidated [8]. - **Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [9]. - **Analysis of Long and Short Views**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber - forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production - cut amplitude may be lower than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 43 yuan to 5054 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 254 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 134 (+9) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, the overall operating rate of PVC is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 tons (- 1), and social inventory is 81.2 tons (+3.5). The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level of the year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, high production, and weak downstream demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [12]. - **Analysis**: The market macro - sentiment is good, and there is still cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Port inventories are decreasing significantly. The short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price may follow the cost to oscillate upward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is cost support. Inventory pressure from traders is high, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. In August, there is a large production - capacity release plan. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [16]. - **Analysis**: Shandong refinery profits have stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is a planned production - capacity release of 45 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost may dominate the market, and it is expected to follow crude oil to oscillate stronger [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6760 yuan, PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 833 dollars, the basis was 88 yuan (- 27), and the 11 - 1 spread was 36 yuan (+30) [18]. - **Fundamentals**: China's PX load is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and Asia's load is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons year - on - year. Inventories decreased in June. PXN is 255 dollars (+2), and naphtha crack spread is 88 dollars (+7). PX is expected to continue inventory reduction, and there is support for valuation, but the upside is limited in the short term [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 30 yuan to 4746 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 12 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan (- 10) [20]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices have stopped or restarted. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal loads are increasing. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 8 was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons. The spot processing fee fell 19 yuan to 178 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 335 yuan. Supply may continue to increase inventory, and the processing fee has limited room. Demand is slightly improving [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 23 yuan to 4346 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4441 yuan, the basis was 92 yuan (+4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 46 yuan (- 3) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply load is 66.4%, down 2%. Some devices have restarted or reduced load. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Import arrival forecast is 14.1 tons, and port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost of ethylene is flat, and the price of coal has risen. The industry is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the valuation is relatively high, with downward pressure on short - term valuation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of finished steel products rebounded briefly and then declined. The spot market was relatively strong, and the basis widened significantly. The consumption of listed steel products decreased month - on - month, while the total output increased slightly. - In terms of varieties, both the production and sales of rebar decreased, with consumption declining faster than production, and the total inventory continued to rise. Both the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the total inventory increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, the structure of stronger hot - rolled coils and weaker rebar is maintained. For rebar, the valuation is in the repair stage, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the support at 3200. Operate with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - **Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of August 14, the total output of five major steel products increased by 2420 tons. The apparent demand was 831,020 tons, a decrease of 14,720 tons month - on - month. As of August 15, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3134.5 yuan, with a profit of about 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 225.5 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3368 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3240 yuan [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 15, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6100 tons. The supply of scrap steel increased, but the inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% [7]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to July, the cumulative output of pig iron was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI was 49.3%. The newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises decreased year - on - year. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.07%, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][23]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the completed floor area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year [30]. **Main Varieties' Basis and Spread** - **Spread Strategy**: This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to be strong [41]. **Supply Analysis** - **Long - Process Supply**: As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, and the daily output of hot metal was 2407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [44]. - **Short - Process Supply**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. As of August 15, the iron - scrap price difference was - 37.7 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 yuan [47]. **Demand - Related Indicators** - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a decrease of 730 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 190,250 tons, a decrease of 290 tons, and the short - process output was 30,200 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: The trading volume of building materials in different regions showed different trends [63]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating rate of national cement mills was 41.91%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2 percentage points, turning from a decline to an increase [71]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The 30 - city real - estate sales data showed certain trends [73]. **Inventory Situation** - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 172,260 tons, an increase of 4060 tons, the social inventory was 414,930 tons, an increase of 26,450 tons, and the total inventory was 587,190 tons, an increase of 30,510 tons [76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 315,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons. The apparent demand was 314,750 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8540 tons. The factory inventory increased by 2100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1210 tons, and the total inventory increased by 840 tons [79]. **Export Situation** - As of August 15, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, an increase of 5 US dollars, and the export profit was - 4.5 US dollars, an increase of 6.4 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.0699 million tons, an increase of 425,500 tons [90].

Report Overview - Report title: "Asphalt Report" [2] - Research team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report date: August 18, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of various BU contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) decreased from July 17 to August 15. For example, the BU主力合约 dropped from 3628 to 3461, a decrease of 167 points [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Both trading volume and open interest declined. Volume decreased from 255,138 on July 17 to 214,163 on August 15, and open interest dropped from 474,048 to 436,319 [4]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased from 42,950 on July 17 to 31,640 on August 15 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed varying trends. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market decreased from 3570 to 3520, while the low - end price in the North China market increased from 3660 to 3680 [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between regions and contracts also changed. For example, the Shandong - East China spread varied from - 100 to - 80, and the 06 - 09 spread changed from - 244 to - 179 [4]. Margins and Spreads - **Margins**: The asphalt Brent spread and asphalt Marrow profit showed significant fluctuations. The asphalt Marrow profit decreased from - 15 to - 53 from August 7 to August 15 [4]. - **Profits**: The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries fluctuated between 452 and 532, while the import profit (South Korea - East China) decreased from - 154 to - 239 [4]. Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Refined Products**: Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between 65.6 and 68.5, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in the Shandong market also changed slightly [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from August 11 to August 15, 2025, shows a trend of change, with values of - 115.4, - 113.4, - 108.4, - 106.4, and - 103.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and spread are provided from August 11 to August 15, 2025 [6] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 11 to August 15, 2025, show different trends of change [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented [9] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [9] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [19] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [26] - **London Market**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on August 15, 2025, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given [37] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Beans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 12, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 4,067 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,073 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,015 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,034 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day. The trading volume was 141,159 lots, and the open interest was 185,359 lots, with a daily increase of 30,232 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,087 | -11 | -0.27% | 62,101 | 47,467 | -24,040 | 0.81% | | A2511 | 4,034 | -29 | -0.71% | 141,159 | 185,359 | 30,232 | 1.43% | | A2601 | 4,031 | -24 | -0.59% | 38,907 | 63,644 | 10,304 | 1.09% | | A2603 | 4,031 | -1 | -0.47% | 5,184 | 25,892 | 377 | 0.94% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's basis of Bean No.1 was -14 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 today were 12,865 lots, a decrease of 258 lots from the previous trading day [5]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4,054 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has continued to rise steadily. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8283 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. Currently, the inventory accumulation of port soybeans has slowed down [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed an overall upward trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4,839.38 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 4,024.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3,867.78 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a steady - to - rising trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].