Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (Au) rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 8931.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3346.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to 37.14 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.35%, and the US dollar index was 96.99 [2]. - Au(T+D) closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, down 0.55% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8885.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.49%. London gold closed at 3331.90 dollars/ounce, down 0.01%, and London silver closed at 36.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.01%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.66 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to 14868.74 tons [5]. Group 2: Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the US added 147,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, the government employment sub - item in non - farm payrolls was as high as 73,000, much higher than the previous value of 7,000. The previously announced ADP employment population decreased by 33,000, lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Excluding the government employment sub - item, only the education and health services (adding 51,000) and construction (adding 15,000) sectors showed resilience, indicating a weakening labor market [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Interest Expense - On July 3, 2025, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act" proposed by Trump. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the act would increase the US fiscal deficit by 2.77 trillion dollars in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, leading to greater debt issuance pressure in the second half of the year. As of May, the cumulative issuance of US Treasury bonds this year was only 281.3 billion dollars, a 56.1% year - on - year decrease. The US Treasury cash account balance was only 372.2 billion dollars, far below the recommended 850 billion dollars, creating a financing demand of nearly 500 billion dollars [3]. - The current average interest rate of US Treasury bonds is 3.294%, and the cumulative interest expense this year has reached 776 billion dollars. Net interest expense is the third - largest fiscal expenditure item after social security and medical insurance. If the US Treasury issues more bonds in a high - interest - rate environment, interest expenses will be difficult to control, increasing the deficit and squeezing other fiscal expenditure items, which is the reason for Trump's dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The game between Powell and the Trump administration on monetary policy will give way to the sustainable development of US finance. Further monetary easing by the Fed in the second half of the year is certain. The Fed is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at the July meeting but show a more dovish stance, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [4]. - In the context of the expected easing of Fed monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. Gold will perform relatively weakly due to the gradual realization of the expectation of loose US fiscal policy. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold futures contract is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver futures contract is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 5: Market Data Tables - A table shows the closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and year - on - year changes of various precious metals, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, stock market indices, etc [5]. - Another table presents the key data of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, etc., as well as their daily changes, daily price increases or decreases, and historical quantiles in the past year [8]. - There is also a table about the internal and external price differences of gold and silver on July 4, 2025, including the prices of COMEX and domestic futures, exchange rates, and price differences [50].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **U.S. Labor Market**: In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised up to 144,000, primarily driven by state and local governments, as well as healthcare and social assistance projects. The leisure and hospitality sectors saw growth, while business services and manufacturing experienced job losses [1][2]. - **China's PMI Data**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was at 49, indicating contraction, while the services PMI was at 50, and the construction PMI was at 52, showing mixed performance across sectors. Manufacturing and construction showed signs of recovery, but services declined [1][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Employment Data**: The recent non-farm data exceeded market expectations with 147,000 new jobs added, compared to an expectation of 106,000. The unemployment rate (U3) fell to 4.1%, and U6 to 7.7%. Labor force participation dropped to 62.3%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2][5]. - **Monetary Policy Divergence**: Federal Reserve officials are divided on future monetary policy, with some advocating for preemptive rate cuts to avoid labor market cooling, while others emphasize caution due to the current economic stability [5][17]. - **Impact of Tax Legislation**: The recent tax bill passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the federal deficit significantly, with a projected increase of $4.1 trillion in the deficit and interest payments. The short-term impact on economic growth is expected to be limited, with long-term growth potentially falling below current expectations [3][12][15]. Additional Important Content - **Manufacturing Sector Challenges**: The manufacturing sector faces challenges such as low price indices, which compress future profit margins, and a growing proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand. The midstream equipment manufacturing sector is performing better than downstream consumer goods [8][11]. - **Service and Construction Sector Performance**: The service sector saw a slight decline in June, particularly in contact services, while the construction sector showed a month-on-month increase but remains at historically low levels due to insufficient real estate investment demand [9][10]. - **Long-term Economic Projections**: The tax bill is projected to have a limited short-term effect on economic growth, with estimates suggesting a peak increase of 0 to 0.06 percentage points by 2026, followed by a gradual decline [15][16]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant developments in both the U.S. and Chinese economies, with a focus on labor market trends, monetary policy divergence, and the implications of recent tax legislation. The manufacturing sector in China is showing signs of recovery, but challenges remain, particularly in pricing and demand. The U.S. economy is navigating a complex landscape influenced by fiscal policy changes and labor market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, highlighting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market and the need for diversified asset allocation in a weak dollar scenario [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies for Chinese Markets - A-shares and H-shares are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with potential upward space due to improved fundamentals and profit expectations [12][11]. - The technology sector, particularly in 5G, robotics, and AI applications, is anticipated to yield excess returns, supported by increased capital inflow from southbound funds [12][11]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as defensive assets while also investing in technology and consumer sectors [13][14]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The RMB is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][18]. - The current account surplus is expected to maintain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for RMB stability [15][18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Predictions - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with an emphasis on social welfare, green transition, and new productivity [17]. - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with potential for one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio cut within the year [18][19]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Policies - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility and long-term economic challenges [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [22][23]. Group 5: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - A declining dollar index may relieve global debt burdens and shift capital flows towards non-dollar assets, increasing demand for gold, euros, and RMB [25][26]. - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments as attractive options [26][27].

Group 1: Core Insights - The June non-farm payroll report revealed a significant increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.3% [1][3] - The job growth was primarily driven by a surge in government employment, particularly in education-related positions, which accounted for nearly half of the new jobs, indicating a structural imbalance in employment growth [3][9] - The report raised concerns about the sustainability of job growth, as private sector job additions were only 74,000, reflecting a moderate economic vitality [3][10] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, the financial markets experienced a rapid shift, with the dollar index rising by 0.6%, marking the largest single-day increase in three months, while gold prices fell sharply [5][6] - The expectations for a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve plummeted, with the probability of maintaining rates rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, indicating a fundamental shift in market pricing logic [4][5] Group 3: Political and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The release of the non-farm data sparked a heated debate in the U.S. political and financial spheres, highlighting the tension between political influence and the independence of monetary policy [7][8] - President Trump claimed credit for the job growth, labeling it the "Trump effect," despite the fact that a significant portion of the job increase came from government sectors, undermining the narrative of private sector prosperity [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Concerns - The report highlighted three major concerns: the sustainability of job growth, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, and the potential for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [9][10] - Analysts expressed differing views on the Fed's future actions, with some suggesting that the likelihood of rate cuts has diminished, while others warned that economic indicators could still prompt a policy shift later in the year [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 and a revised previous value of 144,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%[5] - The private sector employment growth was below expectations, while government employment saw a significant increase of 66,000 jobs, primarily in state education positions[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - The month-over-month wage growth for the private sector decreased to 0.2%, below expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 3.7%[6] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector fell to 0.1%, while the service sector also saw a decline in wage growth, indicating a cooling of core service inflation pressures[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its current policy stance, with a high probability of no rate change in July[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment data release[6] - The upcoming expiration of the "equivalent tariffs" pause and its economic impact will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[6] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[29]

·银河期货：预计贵金属整体仍将维持偏强走势 ·五矿期货：美联储货币政策预期转松背景下重点关注白银做多机会 ·道富投资管理：未来几个季度金价波动将趋缓但仍可继续看涨 ·国投期货：短期贵金属延续震荡关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响 ·国投期货表示，隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百 分点至4.1%，就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震 荡，关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 ·五矿期货表示，"大而美法案"获众议院表决最终通过，美国宽财政政策即将落地实施，而这必定需要 联储宽松的货币政策以配合。在昨夜非农数据超预期的情况下，白银价格仍具备韧性。超预期的非农就 业人数令市场降低了对于后续美联储降息幅度的预期，CME利率观测器显示，当前市场定价联储下半 年分别在9月以及10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。下半年联储的进一步宽松是具备确定性 的，宽财政需要与宽货币紧密配合。联储将会在七月份议息会议中维持利率不变，但表态将会边际转鸽 派。并在九月份议息会议中进行25个基点的降息操作。在美联储货币政策预期转 ...