30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦 其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受中新经纬采访时表示，若仅从其客观政策观点出发，而 不引入政治因素推断，沃什在未来一年内大概率支持降息，且相较其他更强硬的鹰派，其认可的降息幅 度可能相对较大。 "从他的政策见解来看，他对当前经济环境的判断，更倾向于通过宽松货币政策来平衡通胀与就业。"胡 捷指出，在未来一年的利率路径上，沃什主张降息的态度较为清晰。 从具体运行机制来看，美联储主席只是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）19名委员之一，而该委员会中拥 有投票权的委员为12人。只有一票投票权的主席，虽在沟通和协调中具备一定影响力，但并不意味着其 个人偏好可以直接决定货币政策方向。 胡捷指出，FOMC的决策仍将围绕通胀率与失业率两大核心目标展开，政策制定最终需要回归经济数据 和既定目标框架，而非个人立场。在具体政策空间上，他认为，结合当前通胀与就业数据，市场对未来 一年降息幅度的预期大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之间。"相对谨慎的观点认为可能在50个基点左 右，但综合判断，我认为降息 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 1. 1月30日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.35%，标普期货跌 0.34%，纳指期货跌0.44%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐涨。欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.04%，英国富 时100指数涨0.5%，法国CAC40指数涨0.8%，德国DAX30指数涨0.96%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 0.64%，报65.0美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.69%，报69.11美元/桶。纽交所黄金跌3.69%，报5157.2美元/盎 司。 市场消息 1、特朗普正式提名沃什执掌美联储，CME数据显示美联储到6月累计降息25个基点概率 达48.3%，货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次且每次25个基点。 2、芝加哥期权交易所波动 率指数接近盘中低点，报17.80点。 3、印尼金融监管机构负责人辞职，为印尼股市抛售承担责任。 4、 印度外汇储备增至创纪录的7094.1亿美元（截至1月23日）。 5、以色列将于周日重新开放加沙与埃及之 间的拉法口岸。 6、伊朗外交部长表示伊朗的导弹问题绝不会成为谈判议题，已为战争或外交两种情况 做好准备，希望就有尊严的谈判达成框架协议 ...

1. 1月30日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.35%，标普期货跌 0.34%，纳指期货跌0.44%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐涨。欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.04%，英国富 时100指数涨0.5%，法国CAC40指数涨0.8%，德国DAX30指数涨0.96%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 0.64%，报65.0美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.69%，报69.11美元/桶。纽交所 黄金跌3.69%，报5157.2美元/盎 司。 市场消息 1、特朗普正式提名沃什执掌美联储，CME数据显示美联储到6月累计降息25个基点概率 达48.3%，货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次且每次25个基点。 2、芝加哥期权交易所波动 率指数接近盘中低点，报17.80点。 3、印尼金融监管机构负责人辞职，为印尼股市抛售承担责任。 4、 印度外汇储备增至创纪录的7094.1亿美元（截至1月23日）。 5、以色列将于周日重新开放加沙与埃及之 间的拉法口岸。 6、伊朗外交部长表示伊朗的 导弹问题绝不会成为谈判议题，已为战争或外交两种情况 做好准备，希望就有尊严的谈判达成框架协议，目前没有计划与美国 ...

货币市场押注美联储今年将至少两次降息25个基点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of Kevin Warsh by President Trump as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, pending Senate approval [1][10] - Kevin Warsh, born in April 1970, is a financial executive and former Federal Reserve Board member, known for opposing quantitative easing policies during his tenure from 2006 to 2011 [1][5] - Warsh has been a familiar figure in Trump's considerations for the Federal Reserve leadership, having been interviewed during Trump's first term for the position [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has led him to seek a replacement who aligns more closely with his economic policies, particularly advocating for significant interest rate cuts [5][8] - Warsh is seen as a top candidate due to his alignment with Trump's views and personal connections, including his marriage to the heiress of Estée Lauder and ties to Trump's long-time friend Ronald Lauder [8][6] - The selection process for the Federal Reserve Chairman emphasizes loyalty to Trump's economic agenda, with Trump expressing a desire for the federal funds rate to be lowered to 1% or lower within a year [8][6]

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh, born in April 1970, is a prominent figure in the Republican Party and has a background in investment banking [3][4] - Warsh is known for his critical views on monetary policy during Jerome Powell's tenure as the 16th Chair of the Federal Reserve, which began in 2018 [5][7] - Under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times in 2018 and initiated a significant reduction in its balance sheet [7] Group 2 - In 2019, the Federal Reserve reversed course, implementing three rate cuts within three months [7] - The emergency measures in 2020 included lowering the interest rate to a range of 0-0.25% and launching a large-scale quantitative easing program [8] - From 2021 to 2023, the Fed began tapering its asset purchases at the end of 2021 and raised rates by a total of 525 basis points by March 2022 [8]

Group 1 - The company's profit is significantly derived from the pharmaceutical industry, accounting for half of its total profits [1] - The company believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will generally have a positive impact on its industry, particularly in the paper sector [1]

（原标题：倒计时！美联储新任主席即将揭晓 机构热议） 惠理固定收益团队的研究观点显示，在换届与政治周期噪音上升背景下，此举可能是主动把讨论拉 回"数据与双重使命"，以降低市场对"政策独立性风险"的交易强度。美联储已进入"观望区间"，下一步 更趋近"择机再宽松"而非"继续快速降息"。政策定位于中性附近、偏"数据依赖的等待"。 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布，保持基准利率在3.50%～3.75%不变，与市场预期一致。 另据央视新闻，1月30日凌晨，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划于31日公布下一任美联储主席的人选。 美联储降息路径将会如何变化？美联储主席的任命将如何影响其未来的决策及全球金融市场？中外资机 构就此展开讨论。 降息路径将如何变化？ 工银国际首席经济学家程实认为，2026年美联储货币政策的实际宽松节奏可能快于预期，降息幅度也可 能大于市场当前预期。工银国际预计2026年全年降息2～3次，合计降息约50～75个基点。 巴克莱维持基准预期，即美联储旗下联邦公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）将在确信通胀正回归2% 的目标后，于今年6月和12月分别降息25个基点。巴克莱美国经济分析师Marc Giann ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. President Trump requested Russian President Putin to refrain from attacking Ukraine for a week, which Putin agreed to, leading to a temporary ceasefire [2] - The U.S. government shutdown concerns eased as bipartisan agreement on a short-term spending bill was reached, causing market sentiment to recover [2] - Gold prices have been declining due to the ceasefire agreement and the resolution of the government shutdown, with a focus on support at $4,990 and resistance at $5,250 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices rose significantly due to market concerns over potential U.S. attacks on Iran affecting global supply [3] - EIA forecasts indicate steady expansion in global oil supply by 2026, while overall demand remains significantly lower than supply levels [3] - OPEC's market share is being compressed by strong production growth from non-OPEC countries, limiting OPEC's influence on the market [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - The market is closely watching the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with speculation that he may step down in mid-May [5] - If a new chairman is appointed soon, it could lead to more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The dollar index is currently consolidating near annual lows, with support at 96.10 and resistance at 97.20 [5] Group 4: Nasdaq - The Nasdaq index closed lower, trading within a range of 24,800 to 26,200 [7] - A short-term downward trend is indicated as prices fell below the 60/120 day moving averages [7] - Today's support is noted at 25,300 and resistance at 25,800 [7] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices closed higher but showed signs of significant upward pressure with a long upper shadow [8] - The market is observing a potential downward correction after a recent surge [8] - Support is identified at $5.85 and resistance at $6.05 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, which is bullish. The spot price shows a discount to the futures, and the inventory has increased, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main positions are net long but with long positions decreasing, both being bullish. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level, so attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. Key Points by Directory Daily View - The supply side of copper has disturbances and smelting enterprises have production - reducing actions. The scrap copper policy is relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. - The spot price is 100870 with a basis of -470, showing a discount to the futures, which is neutral [3]. - On January 23, copper inventory increased by 3450 to 171700 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 12422 tons to 225937 tons compared with last week, which is neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: The US comprehensive tariff exceeds expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic. High copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].