Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market pressure has eased, signaling a potential turning point. The marginal softening of the "anti-involution" policy has reduced inflation expectations, and recent deep corrections in commodity futures have alleviated panic in the bond market, enhancing the willingness of investors to enter the market [4][23][25] - The stock market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to fluctuate due to a vacuum in incremental policy. The omission of "rate cuts" in the recent political bureau meeting suggests a lower probability of new stimulus policies, shifting focus to the implementation of existing measures [5][25] - The report highlights two main investment directions: defensive stocks such as banks and non-bank financials that serve as stabilizers for the index, and opportunities in rare earths due to the US-China competition and price increases, as well as low-position opportunities in other thematic rotations [5][25] Group 2 - The report reviews significant events, including the continuation of US-China trade negotiations and the Chinese government's emphasis on stabilizing economic policies without aggressive measures like rate cuts. The meeting reiterated the need for a proactive macro policy while avoiding mention of "disorderly competition" [13][14] - The weekly market review indicates a rebound in the bond market, with a decrease in manufacturing PMI reflecting short-term disturbances in economic recovery. The report notes that the A-share market has seen a significant pullback, with some sectors reaching high valuations after a rapid increase since June [16][19] - The report tracks key indicators in the A-share and bond markets, noting that the yield curve remains historically low, and the valuation of A-shares has significantly adjusted downwards. The market's turnover rate has decreased, indicating lower trading enthusiasm and a decline in the profit-making effect [28][31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with demand entering a seasonal lull. The political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for orderly competition in key industries, shifting focus from price increases to rational competition and profit improvement [3][4]. - Short-term steel demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to potential price corrections. However, long-term capacity governance remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability in steel companies as supply dynamics optimize [3][4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in steel production and inventory levels, with total steel production rising to 8.67 million tons, while social inventory increased by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 1, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,350 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton (down 120 CNY), and cold-rolled steel at 3,860 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.67 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 9,000 tons to 2.11 million tons. Social inventory rose by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profitability showed fluctuations, with long-process rebar and hot-rolled steel margins changing by +20 CNY/ton and -14 CNY/ton respectively. Short-process electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +38 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3][4].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年 7月，是中国资本市场史诗级的一个月。尤其是大宗商品市场，极致的过山车行情，实属历 史罕见。 前 19个交易日，文华商品指数累计大涨7.2%。其中多晶硅大涨64%，焦煤大涨50%，玻璃大涨 34%。而后短短6个交易日，大盘回吐了一半涨幅，焦煤、玻璃又纷纷重挫20%左右。要知道， 商品往往有10倍或以上的杠杆，赚钱、亏钱都是成比例大幅扩大。 一念天堂，一念地狱。为什么商品市场会如此极端？商品对应的 A股周期股行情又会如何演绎？ 01 从 7月1日开始，不管是大宗商品市场，还是A股市场，均迎来了一波酣畅淋漓的大涨行情。 导火索无它，即 第六次中央财经委员会召开。它的前身是中央财经领导小组， 2018年3月改名 而来，职责是 针对经济领域的顶层设计、总体布局、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实。 因此，资本市场对此次重磅会议给予了高度关注，并积极定价。尤其是会议中有一句重磅定调： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 彼时，市场更在意 "低价"、"落后产能""退出"等关键词，开始与2015年底启动的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the lithium battery and certain cyclical sectors, with prices recovering to levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 shows a slight decline to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while non-manufacturing sectors remain above the threshold but show marginal slowdown [2][9]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for raw materials and finished goods, driven by anti-involution policies aimed at improving market conditions [5]. - Various industrial sectors are experiencing different levels of growth, with high-performing sectors including non-ferrous metals and machinery, while pharmaceuticals and textiles face challenges [4][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector's PMI has decreased, reflecting a contraction in production and new orders, with the production index at 50.5 and new orders at 49.4 [9]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a positive year-on-year recovery, although retail sales growth is expected to slow down in the coming months [4]. High-Frequency Indicators - Revenue, industrial added value, and PPI growth rates are analyzed across various sectors, with non-ferrous metals and machinery showing high growth, while pharmaceuticals and textiles are underperforming [4][7]. - The supply side indicates low growth in finished goods inventory and a decrease in fixed asset investment growth, suggesting reduced long-term supply pressure in certain sectors [4][8]. Advanced Manufacturing - The report notes that anti-involution measures have led to price recovery in the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, although demand-side constraints remain [5]. - The machinery sector is experiencing stable growth in excavator and heavy truck sales, while new shipbuilding prices and orders have turned negative [5]. Financial Sector - Insurance premium income has increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a positive outlook for the second half as interest rates are expected to decline [5]. Real Estate and Construction - Real estate investment and sales continue to slow, with a notable decline in cement prices, while building materials and home retail sales are accelerating [5]. - The report highlights a decrease in new construction starts and ongoing projects, impacting construction investment [5]. Energy and Commodities - The report discusses the impact of high temperatures on coal and steel prices, with a recovery in oil prices driven by improved economic resilience [5]. - The prices of industrial metals are influenced by U.S. economic conditions and tariff expectations, with copper prices experiencing volatility [5].

Policy Overview - The new growth stabilization plan for key industries is set to be released, focusing on structural optimization and elimination of outdated capacity[1] - The previous plan (2023-2024) successfully achieved industrial added value growth targets across most key industries, with specific targets set for various sectors[3] Industry Performance - The power equipment sector aimed for an average annual growth rate of approximately 9%, while the non-ferrous metals sector had targets of 5.5% for both 2023 and 2024[3] - The automotive industry exceeded its 2023 target of 5% growth, achieving a 13% increase, while the non-ferrous metals sector grew by 7.5% in 2023 and 8.9% in 2024[3] Growth Targets and Achievements - Seven out of ten key industries met or exceeded their industrial added value growth targets, with the light industry achieving a growth rate of 3.4%, slightly below the target of 4%[3] - The construction materials sector fell short of its targets, with a decline of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, against a target of 3.5% and 4% respectively[3] Future Expectations - The new growth stabilization plan is expected to be effective until 2026, likely maintaining industrial added value targets similar to the previous plan[4] - The upcoming policies may emphasize supply-side governance, balancing production efficiency with capacity optimization[7] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery and uncertainties in external markets, which could impact the effectiveness of the growth stabilization policies[6] - The balance between production limits and sustainable profitability remains a critical concern, particularly in high-emission industries like steel[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - Policy might correct the over - interpretation of anti - involution previously. During the summer heat, demand will weaken further and inventory is expected to rise. The market focus will shift to the peak - season consumption in August - September. For steel products, short - term short positions can be held, and those not yet in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds. For iron ore, short - term short selling on price rebounds is recommended, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Policy and Market News**: Politburo meeting removed "low - price" from "low - price disorderly competition", changed "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promote the governance of key industry production capacity", and emphasized optimizing market competition order. The July manufacturing PMI data in China was below expectations, and rapid price increases pressured terminal demand [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, ribbed bar production and apparent demand decreased from an increasing trend, factory inventory decreased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory increased for the third consecutive week. The total inventory of five major steel products rose, and apparent demand declined. Seasonally, demand will weaken in summer heat, and inventory is expected to rise [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices decreased with reduced positions, and long - position liquidation drove price drops [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short - term short positions. Those not in the market can enter short - term short positions after price rebounds [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Ribbed bar futures and spot prices, hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all decreased. For example, the ribbed bar futures price decreased by 3.32% compared to the previous day and 2.70% compared to last week [3]. - **Production**: Ribbed bar production was 211.06 million tons, a 0.42% decrease from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 322.79 million tons, a 1.67% increase from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: Five - major - product social inventory increased by 1.65%, ribbed bar social inventory increased by 2.99%, and ribbed bar factory inventory decreased by 2.12% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but iron - water production has large downward pressure in the off - season. Even in the peak season, the room for growth is limited. Global iron - ore shipments are high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, but trade - mine inventory is high [6]. - **Market News**: After the Sino - US trade talks and Politburo meeting, positive factors were exhausted, and prices face large correction pressure [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices stabilized in the short term, the oscillation range narrowed, and prices are expected to follow the trend of ribbed bars [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling on price rebounds, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss, and conservative investors should stay on the sidelines [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices decreased. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures price decreased by 1.27% compared to the previous day and 3.95% compared to last week [7]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased by 16.64% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 12.19% [7]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.04%, and trade - mine inventory decreased by 0.11% [7]. 3. Industry Information - **Steel Industry PMI**: In July 2025, the steel industry PMI was 50.5%, up 4.6 percentage points month - on - month, ending two consecutive months of decline and returning to the expansion range. In August, steel demand may continue a weak recovery, steel - mill production may rise slightly, and raw material and steel prices will oscillate [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal long - term agreement price increased in July. Some coking - coal mines' production is restricted, and coking - plant profitability varies by region. The average national ton - coke profit is - 45 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Other Products**: National float - glass inventory decreased for six consecutive weeks, and soda - ash factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high historical level [12].

2025 年 8 月 1 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,205 | -140 | -4.19 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,390 | -125 | -3.56 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,730,966 | 1,816,026 | -213,107 | | | HC2510 | 1,070,244 （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 1,433,936 （元/吨） 前日价格 | -139,278 （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3370 | 3440 | -70 | | | 杭州 螺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting emphasized capacity governance in key industries and the regulation of disorderly competition. Some long - position funds took early profit due to previous under - performing policies and over - hyped expectations. The Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff suspension period by 90 days. The market trend on Thursday and Friday after important events will affect the subsequent strength. Although the market dipped after the Politburo meeting announcement on Wednesday, it rebounded. The market continued to decline on Thursday, with coking coal hitting the daily limit down, and it's still uncertain whether it has stabilized. After the major uncertainty is removed, the market will trade based on the long - term logic [4] - For coking coal, mine production declined, downstream restocking enthusiasm was high, and spot transaction rates were at a high level. Mine inventories were continuously transferred to downstream, and steel mills' restocking speeded up slightly this week. For coke, after the third and fourth rounds of price increases were quickly implemented, the fifth round was postponed, but the expectation of further price increases remained. High blast furnace profits supported coke demand [4] - Considering the coking coal's recent trends and positions, short - term funds that entered the market after the 23rd are likely to be stopped out. The current position has dropped significantly, and the price has almost returned to the level before the 23rd. The coking coal's trend in recent days is crucial for determining the future price direction. After the market sentiment is released, the profit distribution logic in the industrial chain will be traded. After coking coal hit the daily limit down on Thursday, the black - commodity sector rebounded at night, indicating a warming sentiment. The short - term market will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and JM09 lightly, shift positions to the January contract as long - positions dominate the shift, and decide whether to increase positions after the outcome of the long - short battle is clear [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Supply decreased slightly while demand increased. The operating rate of 523 mines was 86.9% (+0.83), and that of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51% (-0.8). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was 278.44 million tons (-60.63), and that of coal - washing plants was 175.61 million tons (-15.93). The inventory of 247 steel mills was 799.51 million tons (+8.41), and that of 230 coking enterprises was 841.21 million tons (+51.02). The port inventory was 292.34 million tons (-29.16) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1150 yuan/ton (-0), and the active contract price was 1045.5 yuan/ton (-71.5). The basis was +124.5 yuan/ton (+71.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -89.5 yuan/ton (+26) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - Demand remained high, and supply increased slightly. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.61% (+0.71). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81% (-0.08), and the daily average pig iron output was 242.23 million tons (-0.21) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory decreased while downstream inventory increased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 50.12 million tons (-5.43), that of 247 steel mills was 639.98 million tons (+0.99), and the port inventory was 198.13 million tons (-0.98) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton (+0). Some regions initiated the fifth round of price increases, and the active contract price was 1601 yuan/ton (-75.5). The basis was -74 yuan/ton (+75.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -53.5 yuan/ton (+10) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is committed to combating "involution" in various key industries, aiming to optimize market competition and improve production capacity utilization, with expectations for a rebound in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the second half of the year [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need for capacity governance in key industries, including steel, coal, building materials, and chemicals, to address disordered competition [3][4]. - The government has been actively promoting policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries, focusing on both supply and demand sides to foster healthy industrial development [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated measures against "involution" in the automotive sector, highlighting the need for fair competition and the elimination of disorderly price wars [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Major industries, including photovoltaic glass and steel, are responding to the "involution" policies by reducing production and adjusting pricing strategies to stabilize the market [6][7]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to enhance industry structure and improve capacity utilization, aiming for a return to reasonable pricing [6][7]. - Various industry associations, including those in construction and paper, have launched initiatives to promote high-quality development and combat "involution" [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The PPI is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by price increases in key commodities such as rebar, coking coal, and thermal coal, as a result of ongoing "involution" policies [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the prices of rebar, coking coal, and thermal coal could rise to 3900 yuan/ton, 1200 yuan/ton, and 700 yuan/ton respectively by the end of the year, contributing to a sequential increase in PPI [7][8].