与此同时，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会于7月31日发布的数据显示，受制造业 进入传统生产淡季以及部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，7月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，较6月下降0.4个百分点。 从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点；消费品行业 PMI为49.5%，较6月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，较6月上升0.2个百分点。市场预期方 面，7月，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，较6月上升0.6个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有 所增强。 7月末以来，螺纹钢期现价格有所走弱，主力期价自高位回落，跌幅达4.43%。与此同时，主流地区现 货价格也有不同程度的下跌，跌幅在30~90元/吨。综合来看，乐观情绪修正叠加钢市产业矛盾累积引发 钢价承压回落。 乐观情绪修正 7月以来，黑色金属市场的主导逻辑是"反内卷"所带来的政策利好预期，但随着预期兑现程度有限，前 期乐观情绪迎来修正。7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，要依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进 重点行业产能治理。 相比7月1日中央财经委员会会议的表 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand is relatively stable, and the industry outlook is gradually improving under policy guidance. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage where supply remains high but the growth rate slows down, demand is weak due to the off - season, and inventory slightly accumulates. In the long term, the outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization. For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens in the off - season. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,621.50 US dollars/ton, up 56.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all increased, with increases of 7,409 hands, 3,692 hands, and 362 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1,150 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,900 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.14 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum all increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous increased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum decreased by 595 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased by 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 52.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 4,084.65 tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 4 million tons, and the import volume increased by 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.50 million tons, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 5.20 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles, and the national real estate climate index decreased by 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons, and the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days and 40 days decreased by 0.39% and 0.09% respectively [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0016%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0102 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on policy adjustment and inflation. The central bank's net liquidity injection in July decreased compared with the previous month, and the retail industry's prosperity index in August increased [2]. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of the new energy market increased by 14% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Economic Context - The revision of the Price Law is the first major overhaul in 27 years, addressing the "increase in production without an increase in profit" dilemma and inward competition[4] - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 33 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in June 2025, marking a new low in this negative growth cycle[5][6] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, yet industrial profits fell by 1.8% year-on-year, highlighting the paradox of "increased production without increased profits"[5] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The Price Law revision expands the definition of "below-cost pricing" to include digital economy practices, enhancing the legal framework against unfair competition[5][13] - The revision raises the maximum penalty for violations from 5,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan, significantly increasing the deterrent effect on large enterprises[15] - New provisions specifically target algorithmic manipulation and hidden fees in the digital economy, marking a significant regulatory advancement[15] Group 3: Market Implications - The revision is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, pushing out non-compliant capacities and enhancing the competitive environment for compliant firms[16] - The anticipated recovery of PPI and profit margins may lead to a shift in capital market dynamics, with funds reallocating from defensive sectors to cyclical and "anti-involution" sectors[18] - The long-term goal of the Price Law revision is to transition the economy from a "price war" to an "innovation-driven" growth model, fostering sustainable economic development[18]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,234 | 24 14 | 0.75 | | 期 货 | | 3,451 | | 0.41 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,202,766 | 1,652,569 | -56,263 | | | HC2510 | 561,631 | 1,460,175 | -1,559 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3370 | 33 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the meeting last week, the market has a clearer understanding of the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The commodity market has cooled down, and ferroalloys have returned to their fundamentals. Current high steel mill profits and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, and the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The release of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" has supported ferroalloy prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly) is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. Silicon manganese price range (monthly) is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 3.3 Core Contradiction - After the meeting, the market clarifies the anti - involution policy. Policy focuses on partial capacity governance, not overall reduction. The commodity market cools down, and ferroalloys return to fundamentals. High steel mill profits and hot metal production support demand, but long - term support from real estate, home appliances, and automobiles is uncertain. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and there are still expectations for supply - side contraction. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" support ferroalloy prices [4] 3.4利多解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +85 yuan/ton (+6), and in Ningxia production area is 282 yuan/ton (+56) [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry [5] 3.5利空解读 - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%. The weekly output is 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The demand for five major steel products is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory is 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%, and the total inventory is 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and silicon manganese demand is relatively weak. The profit in the northern region is - 168.65 yuan/ton (- 101.91), and in the southern region is - 511.42 yuan/ton (- 81.09). The weekly production enterprise start - up rate is 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The weekly output is 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The warehouse receipt is 39.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%, and the total inventory is 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] 3.6 Silicon Iron Daily Data - Data such as silicon iron basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [7] 3.7 Silicon Manganese Daily Data - Data such as silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and raw material prices on August 6, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [8] 3.8 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are presented, including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][11]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is falling, and the demand - side production increase is small. The support below the price is weak. In the short term, the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [1] - Futures prices of lithium carbonate contracts from 2508 to 2512 are all falling, with the 2508 contract closing at 67,300 yuan, down 3.19% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 760 yuan, with no change [1] - Lithium mica prices range from 1,085 yuan to 1,710 yuan depending on Li₂O content; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone prices range from 5,275 yuan to 6,200 yuan and are falling [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,595 yuan, down 35 yuan; the average prices of ternary materials 811, 523, and 613 are rising [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) are 14,443 tons, up 1,840 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,421 yuan, and the profit is 7,529 yuan; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is - 6,997 yuan [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.15% at 24,864.15 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.31% at 5,503.81 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.21% at 8,932.05 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba down 0.34%, Tencent up 0.18%, and JD.com up 0.16% [1] - Notable gainers included Southern Manganese, which rose 14%, and Wuling Motors, which increased by 13.5% due to performance boosts [1] Company News - **Tech and Innovation**: - Creative Technology reported a revenue of $7.8 billion for the first half, a 7.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $628 million, up 14.2% [2] - Yum China achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q2 2025, a 4% increase, with operating profit rising 14% to $304 million [2] - Upwind Holdings expects mid-term revenue of approximately RMB 4.09-4.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%-17.3%, and net profit of RMB 540-560 million, up 30.9%-35.8% [2] - Times Angel anticipates a mid-term net profit of $13.4-14.8 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 538.1%-604.8% [3] - **Earnings Surprises**: - Wuling Motors expects a mid-term net profit of approximately RMB 84 million, a substantial increase of about 298% year-on-year [4] - Southern Manganese forecasts a mid-term net profit exceeding HKD 150 million, marking a turnaround from losses [5] Industry Insights - **Pharmaceuticals and Innovation**: - Guosen Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a resonance of liquidity from both domestic and foreign investors, with technology and pharmaceutical sectors having significant recovery potential [7] - Haitong International expressed optimism about the innovative drug industry chain, recommending increased allocation to leading companies in this sector [7] - Minyin International highlighted that domestic healthcare policies and overseas value recognition will support the ongoing trend in China's innovative drug market [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - Minsheng Securities reported that the recent political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for regulated competition in key industries, indicating a shift towards rational competition and improved industry profitability [8]

8月以来，工业品期货价格纷纷回落，一度火热的"反内卷行情"来去匆匆。 工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 从普涨到分化，投机资金退潮 整体看来，工业品期货价格较高位有所回落，但也有部分品种多空资金仍在拉锯，出现尾盘跳涨行情。 其中，焦煤期货作为此轮"反内卷行情"的领涨品种，在7月因国家能源局煤矿超产核查政策预期一度单 周暴涨35%，主力合约最高触及1318元/吨。进入8月后，随着政策细则未达市场预期，叠加焦煤供需格 局宽松，价格快速回落至1150元/吨附近。 但在8月5日尾盘，焦煤期货主力合约由跌转涨，收报1182元/吨，涨6.9%。远月5个合约全部涨停。 从盘后持仓数据看，资金流向上，焦煤期货主力合约持仓量为52.6万手，较前一交易日增加3.8万手。 截至8月5日收盘，碳酸锂期货收报6.78万元/吨，较7月25日触及的7.92万元/吨高点，区间跌幅达 16.8%。 多晶硅、焦煤等前期领涨品种也震荡回落，截至8月1日当周，多晶硅期货主力合约和焦煤期货主力合约 周累计跌幅分别为3.6%和17.1%。 经过前期的大涨，工业品期货整体维持高位震荡，这轮由政策预期与资金炒 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.68% to close at 24,902.53 points, with a total trading volume of HKD 2,293.99 million [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.65%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.73% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Lenovo Group (00992) reached a new high in over four months, closing up 5.09% at HKD 11.14, contributing 6.8 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - BYD Electronics (00285) rose by 7.73%, while Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) increased by 4.69% [2] - New Oriental Education (09901) and China Resources Beer (00291) saw declines of 1.26% and 1.1%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw a resurgence, with Junshi Biosciences (01877) soaring by 33.75% to HKD 32.18 [3] - Other notable gains included Genscript Biotech (01672) up 15.39% and Lepu Medical (02157) up 14.78% [3] - Haitong International expressed optimism for the innovative drug industry, suggesting increased allocation to leading innovative drug and CXO companies [4] Paper Industry - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper (02689) and Lee & Man Paper (02314) seeing significant gains [5] - The industry is benefiting from a supply-demand imbalance and a push for high-quality development [5] Steel Sector - The steel sector was active, with Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) rising by 15.53% [6] - The government’s focus on capacity management is expected to improve profitability in the long term [6] Gaming and Casino Sector - Macau's gaming stocks surged, with major players like MGM China (02282) and Wynn Macau (01128) seeing increases following a strong July revenue report [6] - Macau's gaming revenue reached MOP 221.25 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in demand [6] Notable Stock Movements - Xindong Company (02400) surged by 24.76% after announcing a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025 [7] - Oriental Selection (01797) rose by 16.82% following a quarterly earnings report showing improved profitability [8] - China Tower (00788) reported stable revenue growth of RMB 49.601 billion, up 2.8% year-on-year, with a profit increase of 8.0% [10]