日本央行审议委员中村豊明：由于全球经济增长放缓以及汽车行业的盈利状况恶化，日本经济面临的下 行压力正在加剧。 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：当前最大的不安在于贸易紧张局势可能升级为贸易战，这将对全球经济增长、 通胀以及资产价格产生潜在的重大影响。 ...

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]

原油日报 | 2025-05-14 需求预期持续改善，油价延续涨势 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅为2.78%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.67美元，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为2.57%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.70%，报491元/ 桶。 2、美国通胀降温，4月CPI同比2.3%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为自2021年春季通胀 爆发以来的最低速度。住房成本依旧是通胀关键，机票、二手车、食品价格出现下降。尽管如此，关税的影响仍 未完全显现，企业可能在消化库存。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。白宫称，美国与沙特达成有 史以来两国最大规模的商业协议，含谷歌、DataVolt、甲骨文等公司的800亿美元尖端科技投资、DataVolt的200亿 美元AI数据中心和能源基建投资、48亿美元波音飞机采购、接近1420亿美元的史上最高金额军火销售协议等。沙 特王储称，沙特将努力推动在美国投资额达到1万亿美元。（来源： ...

V i e w p o i n t | 12 May 2025 17:44:22 ET │ 26 pages Metal Matters Expecting gold to consolidate $3-3,300/oz over the coming months, downgrading 0-3m target price to $3,150/oz CITI'S TAKE Gold prices reached record highs in late April and breached our 0-3m point- price target of $3,500/oz as gold demand fired on all cylinders. As tariff concerns drove a significant part of the last leg higher, gold prices are likely to continue consolidating amid progresses on tariff negotiations. In this quarterly update ...

近段时间，美国政府加征关税举措已经对世界经济增长构成重大风险，全球大宗商品市场因需求前景堪 忧备受打击，特别是国际油价走势相当疲弱，反映出市场信心匮乏，当前世界石油市场迎来极为敏感的 时刻。每当石油价格出现大幅下跌时，就会有很多人发出疑问：油价底线在哪里？ 当地时间5月5日，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.16美元，收于每桶57.13美元，跌 幅为1.99%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.06美元，收于每桶60.23美元，跌幅为1.73%。 据统计，4月份，西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）较上月跌幅高达18%，达到2021年以来最大月度跌幅。 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格近一个月来也呈现单边大幅下跌走势。市场分析人士普遍认为，美国加征关税 无疑是造成国际大宗商品市场信心丧失的主要原因，当前国际石油需求预期相当悲观，油价很可能继续 探底过程。 美国的关税战威胁以及朝令夕改带来的不确定性，不仅加剧全球贸易紧张局势，更对世界大宗商品市场 造成巨大冲击。随着美方一些人挑起的关税战升级，市场担心今年世界经济增长将放缓，主要经济体进 口消费需求不可避免将明显下降。以石油为例，石油输出国组织"欧佩克"（OP ...

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025 is reported at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction for two consecutive months [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the prediction made in January [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Asia in April is at 50%, down 1.3 percentage points from March, while Africa's manufacturing has returned to a contraction phase [1][2] Group 2 - Asian developing countries are encouraged to leverage domestic market demand and continue advancing industrial upgrades and technological innovation to mitigate external uncertainties [2] - The stability of Africa's manufacturing sector remains weak, with significant fluctuations, prompting countries to enhance internal trade and investment through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement [2] - European manufacturing PMI stands at 48.4%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from March, while the Americas' PMI is also at 48.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing contraction in both regions [2] Group 3 - The European manufacturing sector is still in a contraction phase, with the European Central Bank acknowledging significant downside risks to the Eurozone economy [3] - Concerns regarding inflationary pressures due to external uncertainties are rising, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS noting an increased risk of recession in the United States for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of global economic growth and global trade on Malaysia's exports will surpass the effects of currency fluctuations [1] Group 1 - Malaysia's Trade Minister emphasizes that external economic factors are more significant for export performance than local currency movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda anticipates a cooling of overall inflation due to tariff measures and a slowdown in global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The expectation of inflation moderation is linked to external factors such as tariff policies [1] - Global economic growth slowdown is identified as a contributing factor to the anticipated decline in inflation [1]

穆迪：美国关税可能对全球贸易和全球经济增长产生重大影响，并将影响泰国的开放型经济。 ...