Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 by 0.55%, and the Dow Jones by 0.25%, marking new closing highs since late February and early March respectively [1] - Major tech stocks experienced upward movement, with Intel increasing nearly 8%, Tesla over 5%, and other companies like Google, Meta, and Apple showing modest gains [1] - The positive market performance was attributed to optimistic signals from U.S. Commerce Secretary, indicating progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook report casts a shadow over global economic prospects, lowering the 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating a potential slowdown not seen since the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [2] - The report warns that the 2020s could be the worst decade for economic performance since the Apollo moon landing, with global trade growth expected to drop to 1.8% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024 [2] - The World Bank anticipates that nearly 60% of developing economies will face economic slowdowns this year, a downgrade from previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs illegal, arguing that halting these tariffs could lead to "irreparable economic and national security harm" [3] - A recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ordered the suspension of these tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them shortly after [3]

Group 1 - The World Bank has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, marking one of the lowest growth rates in 17 years, only better than during the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [1] - Nearly 70% of countries have had their growth expectations lowered in the latest Global Economic Outlook report [2] - Approximately 60% of developing economies are expected to face economic slowdowns, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the January forecast [3] Group 2 - The growth rate expectation for low-income countries is now 5.3%, down by 0.4 percentage points from previous predictions [4] - The United States is projected to grow by only 1.4% this year, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from earlier estimates [5] - Both the Eurozone and Japan have their growth rate expectations set at 0.7%, with downgrades of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively [6] Group 3 - The World Bank warns that if trade restrictions escalate or policy uncertainty persists, economic growth may slow further, potentially leading to increased financial pressures [7] - Other risks include spillover effects from major economies' slowdowns, escalating conflicts, and extreme weather events [7] Group 4 - Analysis indicates that the return of former President Trump to the White House may lead to intensified trade actions, as his administration views free trade as detrimental to U.S. manufacturing and supply chain resilience [8] - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariffs has disrupted markets, causing investment stagnation and supply chain chaos [8] Group 5 - The World Bank's Chief Economist, Indermit Gill, states that the current global economy is in turmoil, and without a swift change in direction, living standards may suffer significantly [9] - The report emphasizes that international discord, particularly in trade, undermines post-World War II policies aimed at reducing extreme poverty and expanding prosperity [9] - The World Bank suggests that easing trade tensions and focusing on debt control and job creation could improve global economic prospects [9]

新华财经纽约6月10日电（记者刘亚南）世界银行10日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年 全球经济增长预期从今年1月份的2.7%下调至2.3%，近70%的经济体增速被下调。 值得注意的是，世界银行预计今年和明年全球贸易量增速分别为1.8%和2.4%，比1月份预测分别低1.3和 0.8个百分点。 报告预计，全球经济在2026年和2027年将出现疲弱的反弹，全球经济产出仍将低于今年1月份的预测。 新兴市场和发展中经济体在缩小与发达经济体人均收入差距和减少极端贫困方面的进展预计仍将不足， 这方面的前景很大程度上依赖于全球贸易政策的演化。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告预计，今年发达经济体经济将增长1.2%，比此前预测低0.5个百分点。其中，美国经济增速从此前 的2.3%大幅下调至1.4%，而其2024年增速为2.8%。今年欧元区和日本经济增速均被下调至0.7%。 同时，今年新兴市场和发展中经济体预计增长3.8%，比此前预测低0.3个百分点。其中，对今年中国经 济增速预测仍维持在4.5%不变。 世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔（Indermit Gill）表示："除亚洲以外的发展中世界正 在变成 ...

当地时间6日，意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望，预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%， 2026年增长0.8%。报告称，美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测，到2025年下半年，美国关税不确定性将有所缓解，但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓，随后在下一年趋于基本稳定，主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性，以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the fragmentation of global trade has a negative impact on global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation of global trade is identified as a significant issue affecting economic performance [1] - Bailey emphasized the importance of cohesive trade relationships for sustaining economic growth [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding the implications of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions on the economy [1]

Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts a downward trend in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with global GDP growth expected to slow from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, primarily due to structural shocks from U.S. tariffs on global trade [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with trade tensions contributing to asymmetric risks [2][3] - The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience lower growth rates due to the impact of tariffs on exports and investments [2] U.S. Asset Allocation - Despite slowing global growth, Morgan Stanley suggests a positive outlook for U.S. assets excluding the dollar, recommending increased allocations to U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, and investment-grade corporate bonds [4][5] - The firm anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% drop in the DXY index to 91 by mid-2026, as U.S. growth and yields converge with other developed economies [5] - U.S. stock market valuations have adjusted, but uncertainties regarding the full impact of tariffs remain, leading to a preference for high-quality cyclical and defensive stocks [5] Central Bank Policies - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until the end of 2025, followed by a reduction of 175 basis points in 2026, which is more aggressive than current market expectations [8] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also projected to continue easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and declining inflation [8] Commodity Market Trends - The oil market is expected to face oversupply in late 2025 and 2026, leading to a downward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [10] - Natural gas prices in Europe may rise due to low inventory levels and competition for liquefied natural gas, with potential prices reaching €40 per MWh [10] - Gold is favored due to strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs, while industrial metals may face downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies [11] Credit Market Outlook - Optimism in the credit market has increased due to positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, prompting Morgan Stanley to lower credit spread forecasts across various regions [12][13] - The firm projects a tightening of credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, reflecting improved market sentiment [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and finance sector [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with factors such as the rise of US manufacturing PMI, the progress of US - EU tariff negotiations, the increase in container prices, China's economic data, and the recovery of European manufacturing all contributing to this positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Important Information - Asian life insurance's huge losses expose the systemic risk of dollar - asset maturity mismatch, and a capital shift from focusing on US assets to seeking alternatives has begun, with a "big retreat" of up to $7.5 trillion starting [1] - US National Economic Council Director Hasset said more trade agreements may be seen in the future, and tariffs on some countries may drop to 10% or lower [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the sixth consecutive cut since last year, and warned about the threat of US trade policy to the global economy [1] - The yield of 30 - year Japanese government bonds rose 10 basis points to 2.93%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose 6.5 basis points to 1.525% after weak demand in the 40 - year bond auction [1] - South Korean retailers' sales in April increased by 7% year - on - year due to strong demand for online food and grocery delivery services [1] - Goldman Sachs said tariffs will push the US core PCE inflation rate to rebound to 3.6% later this year, but it's a "one - time" price increase [1] - SpaceX's "Starship" ninth test flight ended in failure as the spacecraft disintegrated in the air due to cabin leakage [1] - Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to hold high - level meetings with China and Brazil to promote the "Two - Ocean Railway" project [1] Global Economic Logic - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, reaching a three - month high [1] - The acceleration of US - EU tariff negotiations boosts market risk appetite [1] - The price of 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line on June 15 reached $9100, more than three times the average price in early May [1] - China cut the 1 - year deposit interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.95% [1] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year [1] - Germany's rearmament and the European Central Bank's interest rate cut promote the recovery of European manufacturing [1]

澳洲联储：全球贸易战对经济构成重大下行风险 金十数据5月20日讯，澳洲联储周二表示，由于受全球贸易紧张局势的连带影响，通胀率将下降，而失 业率将上升，即使假设降息幅度达到市场预期。澳洲联储在周二发布的季度货币政策声明中称，核心通 胀的降温速度略快于预期，服务业明显放缓。该央行还警告称，美国总统特朗普关税政策将拖低全球经 济增长率，并且总体上有助降低澳洲通胀率。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The primary concern is the potential escalation of trade tensions into a trade war, which could significantly impact global economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [1] Group 1 - The current trade tensions are viewed as a major source of uncertainty in the global economy [1] - An escalation into a trade war could have profound implications for various economic indicators [1] - The potential effects on asset prices are highlighted as a significant risk stemming from trade conflicts [1]