国家航天局已于近期设立商业航天司，相关业务正在逐步开展，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管 机构，未来将持续推动我国商业航天高质量发展，产业链有望全线受益。 机构后市投资观点 在经历震荡调整后，本周A股三大股指呈现小幅反弹趋势，但整个11月三大股指均收跌。展望即将到来 的12月行情，机构认为，或以结构性行情为主，市场即将迎来重要政策时间窗口，美联储议息会议表态 对全球市场流动性的潜在影响也值得关注。 在具体配置上，红利等防御性板块配置关注度升温，AI应用、资源品、医药生物、新消费方向投资机 会值得重视。面对波动行情，建议从中长期视角布局，利用市场的短期波动，以更合理的价格买入长期 看好的公司。 影响后市投资大事件 11月PMI上升0.2个百分点 国家统计局11月30日发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个 百分点。11月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，分别比上月上升0.3个百分点和0.4个百 分点。11月份，高技术制造业PMI为50.1%，连续10个月位于临界点以上。 央行召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议 11月28日，中国人民银行召 ...

Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report's Core Views - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current low inventory level is not bearish for prices. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity due to the price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, but the current valuation is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,460 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 40 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount remains unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,600 yuan/ton, closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,551 lots, and the open interest was 257,138 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,909 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, a change of - 675 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 27, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,721 yuan/ton, closed at 2,724 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.15%. The highest price was 2,730 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,818 lots, and the open interest was 355,202 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 27, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no price change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current macro - data shows a marginal weakening trend near the end of the year, and there is a lack of upward driving force for prices in the short term. The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia Liqin has been completed and put into production, but the power supply problem in Indonesia may still affect the output. There is an optimistic outlook for future consumption, and the current price decline provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity [6]. Alumina - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, and the domestic ore is under short - term environmental protection pressure. Although the supply of imported ore is increasing, the price sentiment is weakening. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current valuation is low [7][8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21440元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21330元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-120元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21340元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-110元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-25日沪铝主力合约开于21415元/吨，收于21465元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21525元/吨，最低价达到21380元/吨。全天交易日成交157390手，全天交易日持仓271763手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.3万吨，较上一期变化-0.8万吨，仓单库存69283 吨，较上一交易日变化-125吨，LME铝库存543725吨，较上一交易日变化-2225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]

然而，市场的主要疑虑在于需求侧。许多观点认为，仅依靠"反内卷"等供给侧改革来约束供给，而没有 相应的需求侧政策配合，价格的回升将是不可持续的。报告认为，尽管专门配合"反内卷"的需求政策可 能不会出台，但这并不意味着总需求没有扩张的支撑。 出口如何填补房地产的巨大缺口 招商证券认为，明年中国经济和资本市场的核心逻辑是"再通胀"，但动力并非来自内部刺激，而是来自 出口对房地产投资下行的强力对冲。 在最近发布的研报中，招商证券张一平团队写道，只要出口保持稳定增长，即使国内消费和投资维持低 位，总需求也不会收缩。结合供给侧的"反内卷"改革，再通胀将是大概率事件，GDP平减指数预计在 年中前后转正。 再通胀：明年市场的核心剧本 报告明确指出，"再通胀"是理解明年中国经济与资本市场的关键。自2023年第二季度以来，中国经济一 直面临价格弱势的困扰。如果明年能够成功扭转这一局面，那么当前股市相对强势、债市相对弱势的资 产表现将继续演绎。 实现这一增长的可能性很高。报告预计，2026年可能出现"中美政策共振"：美国中期选举后，特朗普政 府（假设）可能采取财政货币双宽松政策以提振经济；而中国正值"十五五"规划开局之年，重大项目 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 明年再通胀的需求动力来自于哪儿？ 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 44 期） 频率：每周 中小学生放春秋假就是创造消费场景，拉动居民消费的新尝试。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《静待花开——宏观与大类 资产周报》2025-11-23 2、《俄乌和谈再次启动？—— —国际时政周评》2025-11-23 3、《中小学生春秋假的政策意 义 — 显 微 镜 下 的 中 国 经 济 （2025 年第 43 期）》2025-11- 18 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 再通胀是明年国内经济和资本市场的核心逻辑。如果明年确能结束 2023 年 2 季度以来的价格弱势，那么当前股强债弱的格局将继续演绎。市场对于再 通胀的主要质疑在于，如果没有需求配合，仅靠反内卷在供给侧做文章，价 格回升并不能持 ...