Lithium Battery Industry - BYD Energy signed the largest energy storage supply agreement in Latin America with Grenergy, totaling 6.5 GWh of cooperation [1] - The first batch of solid-state batteries for construction robots has been successfully mass-produced and delivered [1] - Zhuhai Guanyu has been designated by SAIC Volkswagen to develop and supply low-voltage lithium batteries for vehicles [1] - In Q1 2025, unit profitability of some companies in the lithium battery supply chain is expected to increase, with a potential supply-demand turning point in 2025, leading to a 2-3 year upward cycle in the industry [1] - The industry is viewed as a good medium-term investment opportunity, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [1] - Recommended companies include CATL and EVE Energy, with material companies such as Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, Shangtai Technology, and Zhongke Electric also suggested for attention [1] - Solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a promising theme, with companies like Yuyuan New Materials and Ruijitai New Materials recommended for focus [1] Energy Storage - The Yangtze River Delta has introduced paid auxiliary services for new energy storage, with deep peak shaving compensation at 0.16 yuan/kWh and automatic generation control (AGC) compensation at 3 yuan/MW [2] - A 300MW/600MWh energy storage project in Ningxia has opened bidding, with EPC pricing ranging from 0.549 to 0.633 yuan/Wh [2] - The large-scale storage sector is accelerating with increased shipments of solar storage and a rising overseas proportion, leading to accelerated performance releases for leading companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, and Kehua Data [2] - The household storage sector is seeing demand recovery in mature European markets and growth in Northeast Europe, enhancing market confidence for 2025 [2] Power Equipment - The National Energy Administration issued 216 million green certificates in April, a month-on-month increase of 23.94% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration are promoting the development of direct green electricity connections, benefiting the power grid sector amid rising domestic stimulus expectations [2][3] Wind Power - The Estonian government issued its first offshore wind farm construction permit to Saare Wind Energy, with a maximum installed capacity of 1.4 GW [4] - South Korea announced the launch of a 1.25 GW fixed-bottom offshore wind project tender in the first half of 2025 [4] - Key domestic projects in Q1 2025 have commenced, with several more set to start construction in Q2, indicating a well-paced domestic offshore wind construction rhythm and a significant increase in delivery volume expected in 2025 [4] - Recommended companies benefiting from domestic and international offshore wind demand include cable leaders like Zhongtian Technology and Dongfang Cable, as well as tower and single pile leaders like Dajin Heavy Industry and Tianjun Wind Power [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify and recommend industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on specific market conditions and sectoral dynamics [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates industries based on their recovery potential ("distressed reversal sectors") and ongoing trends. It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption industries. Additionally, it highlights sectors like technology (e.g., consumer electronics) and those with upward momentum, such as banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential and aligns with current market trends [2][3][9] 2. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying sectors with high beta characteristics, particularly in the technology domain, to capture growth opportunities [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model emphasizes technology-related sectors, such as consumer electronics, as key areas of focus. It also considers sectors with strong upward momentum, like banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is suitable for identifying high-growth sectors in a market environment characterized by volatility and selective sectoral strength [2][3][9] 3. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses moving average distances to assess market conditions and provide timing signals for market entry or exit [2][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index - Current data: - 20-day moving average: 5063 - 120-day moving average: 5079 - Distance: -0.32% (short-term moving average below long-term moving average) - The absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, indicating a market in a consolidation phase [2][3][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear and quantitative framework for assessing market trends and timing decisions [2][3][8] 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal portfolio allocation based on valuation metrics and market trends [3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the Wind All A Index's valuation levels: - PE ratio: 60th percentile (moderate level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) - Based on these metrics and short-term market trends, the model recommends a portfolio allocation of 50% for absolute return products [3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances valuation considerations with market dynamics to guide portfolio allocation [3][9] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, new consumption, technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 2. TWO BETA Model - Focus sectors: Technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 3. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: -0.32% (absolute value < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase) [2][3][8] 4. Position Management Model - Recommended portfolio allocation: 50% for absolute return products [3][9]

Group 1 - Hongta Securities announced a proposal for share buyback to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value [1] - As of May 11, 2023, 359 listed companies in A-share market have initiated buyback plans, with 265 companies specifically for stock repurchase, totaling a maximum buyback amount of 46.9 billion [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission supports central enterprises in increasing buyback efforts, leading to several securities firms, including Guotai Junan and Dongfang Securities, to propose buyback plans [4] Group 2 - The combined buyback amount from six major securities firms is estimated to reach 3.8 billion, with potential total buyback including Hongta Securities reaching up to 4 billion [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a combined usage of stock repurchase and loan increase tools with a total limit of 800 billion, enhancing the convenience and flexibility of these tools [4] - Analysts suggest that the buyback actions by securities firms signal strong confidence in their development, which can instill investor confidence in a volatile market [4] Group 3 - The current wave of buybacks is seen as a combination of policy guidance and market-driven behavior, which is expected to stabilize market confidence in the short term [5] - A series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity, are contributing to the buyback trend, reinforcing the dual drive of policy and capital [5] - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of buyback funding, especially if economic pressures increase, which could lead to cash flow challenges for some firms [5] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to experience a rotation of investment themes, with a focus on technology, consumption, and healthcare sectors in the short term [6][7] - Analysts highlight three main investment lines: TMT sector, low-cycle stocks under growth policies, and stable sectors like public utilities and transportation [6] - The overall performance of A-share companies is stabilizing, with improvements noted in both large and small-cap stocks [6]

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年5月12日 中泰证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 2 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 【市场观察】一季报落地后市场或如何演绎？ 3 • 一、5月货币与资本市场政策落地后市场或如何演绎？ • 政策面上，上周三国新办会议延续"预期管理"思路，更加重视资本市场。在此次会议中，央行推出包 括数量型政策、价格型政策和结构型政策共三大类十项货币政策措施，三类政策呈现由大到小，从总 量到结构的特征。 • 金融监管总局提出八项举措全力巩固经济回升向好的基本面。八项政策围绕地产、二级市场和实体经 济融资各方面提出了政策支持，覆盖较为全面，或反映出监管部门工作更加重视经济发展，监管力度 或呈现阶段性宽松。 • 证监会提出三大举措持续稳定和活跃资本市场。证监会提出将全力巩固市场回稳向好势头、突出服务 新质生产力发展的重要着力点、大力推进中长期资金入市。新质生产力方面，会议提出三大方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Unity's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, particularly in the Grow segment, but the new advertising model's impact is still uncertain and may not significantly boost revenue in the near term [1][2][17]. Financial Performance - Unity reported total revenues of $435 million for Q1 2025, a year-over-year decline of 5.5%, but above company guidance and market expectations [4][17]. - The Create segment saw an 8% year-over-year decline, slightly below market expectations, while the core subscription revenue grew by 13% [2][17]. - The Grow segment's revenue decreased by 4%, which was better than market expectations [19]. Operational Metrics - The net expansion rate improved to 97%, but still fell short of market expectations, indicating a slight decline in revenue from existing customers [21]. - The number of large customers (paying over $100,000 annually) increased to 1,260, reflecting a modest recovery [22]. - Deferred revenue remained stable, suggesting ongoing revenue challenges [24]. Cost Management - Operating expenses decreased by 35% year-over-year, with significant reductions in stock-based compensation [28]. - GAAP operating loss was $128 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached $84 million, exceeding both company guidance and market expectations [28]. Future Outlook - Management's guidance for Q2 2025 indicates expected revenues between $415 million and $425 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.3% to 7.5% [27]. - The transition to the new advertising model is anticipated to take longer than previously expected, with potential for a gradual recovery in the second half of the year [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5][50]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the industry is expected to see a bottoming out and gradual improvement, with a continued focus on innovation and AI as key growth drivers. The performance of the pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with a year-to-date return of 1.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.4% [7][12]. - The report suggests that the innovation trend in pharmaceuticals is likely to persist, with specific recommendations for companies such as Changchun High-tech, Sanofi, and Betta Pharmaceuticals, among others [7][12]. - The report highlights the potential of AI in pharmaceuticals and healthcare, indicating that this sector is just beginning to unfold, with opportunities in drug development, diagnostic assistance, and chronic disease management [8][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry comprises 498 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 62,240.01 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 55,873.42 billion yuan [2][5]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00% while the pharmaceutical sector increased by 1.01%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries. Various sub-sectors, including medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine, also experienced gains [7][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key areas for investment: 1. **Innovation Growth**: Focus on innovative drugs with strong technological attributes and ongoing policy support [7][12]. 2. **AI in Healthcare**: Emphasizing the emerging opportunities driven by AI in diagnostics and drug research [8][13]. 3. **Recovery in Distressed Sectors**: Highlighting potential recovery in CRO&CDMO and specialty raw materials due to improved industry policies and global order recovery [8][13]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies such as: - Changchun High-tech - Sanofi - Betta Pharmaceuticals - WuXi AppTec - Daan Diagnostics - Others in the AI and healthcare sectors [7][8][12][13].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。 中泰证券表示，从行业配置角度看，有三条主线值得关注：（1）TMT景气度有望贯穿全年。（2）稳 增长政策下，关注低位周期股"困境反转"。从估值-盈利角度看，石油石化、有色金属市净率存在一定 修复空间。3、中期经济压力持续，关注稳健类板块。公用事业、交通运输板块盈利能力稳定，且估值 偏低，具备较强的安全边际。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 5月9日，三大指数集体低开，中船系、减肥药、银行等板块和概念股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中证A500 指数跌0.26%，成分股中，中航成飞涨超5%，中鼎股份、百济神州-U、信立泰、安克创新等跟涨。 相关ETF中，截至发稿，A500指数ETF（159351）跌0.42%，成交额超6700万元。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）已连续三个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.8亿元。 A500指数ETF（159351 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares stabilized in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in non-financial sectors, where the net profit growth rate reached 5.13%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rate [11][15][19] - Among 30 industries, 17 showed a year-on-year increase in net profit growth, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which saw substantial revenue and profit growth [3][29] - The financial sector exhibited a mixed performance, with state-owned banks under pressure while non-bank financial institutions showed a significant recovery, with a net profit increase of 21.30% [38][40] Group 2 - Price pressures persist across various industries, with 23 out of 30 industries having a sales net profit margin below 10%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some sectors experiencing a "turnaround" [4][41] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors have shown significant profit improvements, indicating a recovery from previous downturns [4][44] - The consumer electronics sector benefited from government policies, with household appliances seeing a net profit increase of 25.12% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [4][44] Group 3 - From a PB-ROE perspective, 14 out of 30 industries showed improved ROE compared to the previous year, particularly in the TMT sector, where electronic and media industries saw significant gains [5][45] - The communication sector within the technology industry has substantial valuation recovery potential, while the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors also show signs of potential recovery [5][48] - Public utility sectors maintain stable performance and low valuations, indicating strong long-term investment value [5][49] Group 4 - Future industry allocation should focus on three main lines: the sustained growth of the TMT sector, the recovery of low-position cyclical stocks, and the stability of defensive sectors [6][54] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, particularly for private technology enterprises, while low-position cyclical stocks like oil and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of recovery [6][54] - Defensive sectors such as public utilities and transportation are projected to remain stable amid ongoing economic pressures, providing a strong safety margin for investors [6][55]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" with an expected industry index increase of -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The market is currently in a downtrend, with a focus on when the profit effect will turn positive. The current profit effect is around -1% [2][10]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral position until the 30-day moving average of the wind All A index is breached, considering the low valuation levels [4][10]. - The industry configuration model recommends focusing on "dilemma reversal" sectors, particularly in healthcare and consumer sectors related to export chains such as light industry and home appliances [3][10]. - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, emphasizing domestic substitution in the fields of information technology and AI chips [3][10]. - Despite a significant drop on Friday, the banking sector, which is still in an upward trend, remains worthy of attention [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The wind All A index is currently in a downtrend, with the 20-day moving average at 4908 and the 120-day moving average at 5092.8, indicating a distance of -3.63% [2][9]. - The market's current environment is characterized by uncertainty due to upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and the release of April import and export data [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The overall PE ratio of the wind All A index is around the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10]. Positioning Recommendations - The report advises a 50% allocation in absolute return products based on the wind All A index as the main stock allocation [3][10].