Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate sector is characterized as a "three low" industry (low price-to-book ratio, low positioning, low attention), suggesting that the valuation gap will eventually close [3][5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first negative growth in two years [6][9] - The construction investment growth rate in July 2025 was negative 5.1%, indicating a severe decline in local government-funded projects and highlighting fiscal difficulties [6][9] Key Points and Arguments - Real estate stocks are not to be viewed pessimistically; the market is in a phase of orderly expansion, and the sector's win rate is high due to its low valuation metrics [3][5] - In July 2025, real estate investment fell by 17.1%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3%, both showing significant declines and marking a critical turning point [11] - The cash flow situation in the real estate market has improved compared to last year, with financing costs and completion rates showing strength, suggesting potential recovery in construction data in the second half of the year [2] - The introduction of special bonds and government debt in July has significantly increased, aiding in resolving real estate debt issues and enhancing macroeconomic stability [7] Notable Companies and Their Performance - Companies like Vanke, JinDi, Longfor, and New Town are identified as having high elasticity due to improved competitive dynamics [8] - Service-oriented companies such as Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc, and China Overseas Property are also highlighted for their dividend performance in the mid-year reports [8] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Oriental Yuhong and Henkel Group, which are expected to perform well due to improved market conditions [19] Risks and Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports for construction companies are anticipated to be risky, with potential for lower-than-expected performance due to increased receivables and declining revenues [13][16] - Despite short-term risks, there is potential for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly for companies with mineral resource attributes, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway [14] - The cement industry is projected to face a demand decline of 4.5% for the year, with July's demand down by 5.6% [17] Additional Insights - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved fundamentals and reduced price wars, which may lead to enhanced profitability [18] - The western region's infrastructure projects are expected to significantly impact the building materials industry, with strong demand and funding availability [24] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions cautiously in anticipation of potential volatility following the mid-year report disclosures [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Outperform" [7]. Core Views - The company continues to make sufficient provisions for inventory impairment, positioning itself to wait for a recovery in consumer demand [1]. - The financial performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations, with revenue of 2.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, down 42.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is facing a challenging domestic consumption environment, leading to increased strategic expenses and asset impairment provisions, which have pressured profit margins [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.153 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 5.183 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 406 million yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 528 million yuan by 2027 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 65%, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.4% in 2025 to 10.2% by 2027 [6]. Brand and Channel Performance - The HAZZYS brand showed revenue growth of 8.4% in the first half of 2025, while the main brand reported a decline of 9.6% [7]. - Direct sales and online channels experienced growth, while offline franchise and group purchase channels faced pressure [7]. - The company continues to maintain a strong cash position, with over 1.6 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, providing a solid buffer against risks [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in July due to weakened demand caused by high temperatures and a slowdown in supply from developers [5] - The overall industry is expected to stabilize and recover, with potential policy easing in cities following Beijing's lead [5] Sales Summary - From January to July 2025, the total sales area of new commercial housing reached 520 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, with the sales amount totaling 5 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [1] - In July alone, the sales area was 57.09 million square meters, a month-on-month decline of 45.8% and a year-on-year decline of 7.8% [1] Construction Summary - The cumulative new construction area from January to July 2025 was 350 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [2] - The completed area was 250 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, with the decline widening compared to the previous month [2] Investment Summary - The total construction area in the first seven months was 6.39 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [3] - Real estate development investment reached 5.4 trillion yuan, down 12% year-on-year [3] Funding Summary - From January to July 2025, the total funds in place for real estate development amounted to 5.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [4] - Domestic loans accounted for 920.7 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while self-raised funds decreased by 8.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are reversing their difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading companies maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Jinmao and Greentown China [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a reversal in its performance, with the new product "Dazhen" potentially becoming a significant growth driver, leading to a mid-term revenue target of 6 billion [2][4] - The company anticipates a 39%-40% decline in adjusted net profit for the first half of 2025, which is viewed as the low point of the current adjustment period, with expectations for performance improvement in 2026 [5][10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leading producer of sauce-flavored liquor, with a focus on innovative marketing and product strategies to drive growth [1] Product Innovation - "Dazhen" is designed to compete with top-tier products like Feitian Moutai, featuring minimalist packaging and strong brand recognition [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing approach includes scenario-based marketing, short video promotions, and leveraging cultural heritage through celebrity endorsements [3][4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected to decline by 28.94%, with a recovery expected in 2026 at a growth rate of 29.51% [11] - The company forecasts a net profit decline of 21.35% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 43.03% in 2026 [11] Market Position - The company aims to establish "Dazhen" as a new consumption product in the liquor market, with significant growth potential and a unique distribution model [2][4]

Group 1 - At the end of Q1, Ningde Times regained its position as the largest heavy stock among public funds, while Zhifei Biology was highly favored by public funds [1][2] - Public funds saw a net subscription of 7414.68 billion units in Q1, with significant net subscriptions in money market, bond, index, and stock funds, while mixed funds experienced a net redemption of approximately 1114.55 billion units [2] - The overall stock position of public funds showed a slight decrease, with an average stock position of 71.42% at the end of Q1, down 1.85 percentage points from the end of 2021 [2] Group 2 - Top fund managers adjusted their stock positions in response to the complex market in Q1, with a focus on increasing allocations in sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology while reducing exposure in finance [3][4] - The concentration of holdings among public funds increased, with a concentration ratio of 57.29% at the end of Q1, compared to 55.88% at the end of 2021 [2] - Fund managers expressed the need for patience and confidence in the market, suggesting that the "policy bottom" and "market bottom" may have synchronized, but a V-shaped recovery is unlikely [5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are being sought in two categories: industries with sustained positive outlooks such as new energy, photovoltaics, and military industry, and industries in a recovery phase like breeding, catering, tourism, media, and real estate [6] - Fund managers are maintaining a focus on "consumption growth + technology growth" in their portfolio configurations for the upcoming market [5]

- The report defines the market environment using the distance between the long-term (120-day) and short-term (20-day) moving averages of the WIND All A index, which continues to expand, indicating an upward trend [2][9][10] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as innovative drugs in Hong Kong and securities for mid-term allocation, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military and computing power [2][3][10] - The current PE ratio of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB ratio is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10][15] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Model Name: Industry Allocation Model** - **Construction Idea**: Recommends sectors based on mid-term market trends - **Construction Process**: Utilizes historical data and market trends to identify sectors with potential for reversal and growth, such as innovative drugs and securities in the Hong Kong market - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying sectors with potential for mid-term growth [2][3][10] 2. **Model Name: TWO BETA Model** - **Construction Idea**: Focuses on sectors with high beta values, indicating higher volatility and potential returns - **Construction Process**: Analyzes sectors with high beta values, recommending technology, military, and computing power sectors - **Evaluation**: Continues to recommend high-growth sectors, showing consistency in sector selection [2][3][10] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Allocation Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10] 2. **TWO BETA Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "turnaround" in investment, using the historical example of American Express and comparing it to current situations faced by companies like Tencent and Moutai, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive moat despite market fears [4][8]. Group 1: American Express Case Study - In 1964, Warren Buffett invested approximately $13 million to acquire 5% of American Express shares at an average price of $71 per share, which later rose to $180 per share, showcasing a significant turnaround [4]. - The "Salad Oil Scandal" in 1963 led to a crisis for American Express, causing its stock price to plummet due to fears of insolvency after banks sought compensation for losses exceeding $150 million [6]. - Buffett's unique insight allowed him to recognize that American Express's core business remained strong, as customers continued to use its services despite the scandal, leading him to invest heavily in the company [7]. Group 2: Comparison with Tencent - The article draws parallels between American Express's situation and Tencent's challenges from 2021 to 2022, where negative market sentiment led to a significant drop in its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 9 times, with the stock price falling to levels not seen in five years [8]. - Despite the adverse conditions, Tencent's core applications, such as WeChat and gaming, continued to thrive, indicating that the company's competitive advantages remained intact [8]. - The recovery of Tencent's stock price in subsequent years illustrates the potential for turnaround when a company's fundamental strengths are not eroded [8]. Group 3: Current Market Observations - Companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted as having similar characteristics to American Express and Tencent, where despite concerns over oversupply and inventory issues, they remain preferred choices for high-end dining and gifting [9]. - The enduring demand for premium liquor in social settings reinforces the idea that these companies possess a strong competitive moat, similar to the historical examples discussed [9].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed job additions significantly below expectations, leading to renewed discussions on interest rate cuts by Wall Street firms [3][5] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have increased their predictions for potential interest rate cuts, with Nomura Securities doubling the probability of four rate cuts within the year [3][5] - The current economic situation is compared to last year, but there are key differences, particularly regarding inflation trends [3][5] Group 2 - Market reactions often reflect expectations rather than reality, with poor economic data potentially leading to a bullish stock market as investors bet on Federal Reserve easing [5][13] - There is a noted disparity in information access between retail investors and institutions, with institutions often pricing in information months in advance [12][14] - Key indicators such as the three-month average job additions have fallen below 150,000, which are seen as leading indicators in quantitative models [13][16] Group 3 - The slowdown in wage growth and a significant reduction in temporary workers are additional indicators of economic trends [16] - The article emphasizes the importance of using quantitative tools to detect market movements and funding patterns, which can provide insights that are not immediately visible to average investors [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the real estate industry, indicating an expected return that exceeds the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry in China continues to face pressure, with the top 100 real estate companies experiencing a sales decline of 13.3% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with a more pronounced drop of 18.2% in July alone [1]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that may reverse their current difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in land supply and a mixed performance in housing sales across different city tiers, with first-tier cities showing some resilience while second and third-tier cities continue to struggle [3][4][38]. Summary by Sections Sales Review (July 26 - August 1) - Total transactions in 32 monitored cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%, but a cumulative year-on-year decline of 6.3% for 2025 [2][13]. - First-tier cities sold 4,734 units, up 38% week-on-week, while second-tier cities sold 9,726 units, up 13.6% week-on-week, and third-tier cities saw a decline of 11.1% with 1,290 units sold [2][13]. Land Supply (July 21 - July 27) - The planned land supply in 100 cities was 407 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 12,730 million square meters for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3][38]. - The average land listing price across 100 cities was 3,852 CNY per square meter, with a recent decline of 15.3% [3][40]. Land Transactions (July 21 - July 27) - The total area of residential land sold in 100 cities was 392 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 10,918 million square meters for 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [4][64]. - The average transaction price for residential land was 8,891 CNY per square meter, with a significant increase of 46.2% month-on-month and 55.9% year-on-year [4][66].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index - Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - If the absolute value of the distance is greater than 3% and the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, the market is in an upward trend[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies upward market trends and provides actionable signals for investors[2][9] 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific factors such as valuation, growth potential, and market sentiment - Recommend sectors like "distressed reversal" industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities for medium-term allocation[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear guidance for sector rotation and captures medium-term opportunities in specific industries[2][9] 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors in the technology domain[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta factors related to technology sectors - Recommend sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries based on their growth potential and market trends[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing high-growth opportunities in the technology sector[2][9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Model - **Key Metrics**: - Moving average distance: 6.06% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][9] - WIND All A Index trendline: 5480 points[2][9] - Profitability effect: 1.45% (positive, indicating sustained market inflows)[2][9] 2. Industry Allocation Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: distressed reversal industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities[2][9] 3. TWO BETA Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries[2][9] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the market's ability to generate positive returns, serving as a key indicator for market sentiment and fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the profitability effect as a percentage value - Positive values indicate favorable market conditions for sustained fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment and a useful tool for timing investment decisions[2][9] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profitability Effect - **Key Metrics**: - Profitability effect value: 1.45% (positive, indicating favorable market conditions)[2][9]