原油日报 | 2026-01-16 地缘溢价消退，油价延续回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌2.83美元，收于每桶59.19美元，跌幅为4.56%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌2.76美元，收于每桶63.76美元，跌幅为4.15%。SC原油主力合约收跌2.34%，报442元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 在美国成功对委内瑞拉采取军事行动后，美方正加强对古巴的辞令，信号显示除非这个由共产党执政的岛国 改变现状，否则华盛顿将对其采取更强硬的手段。美国国务院负责对外援助和人道主义事务的官员Jeremy Lewin 表示，古巴政府面临一个选择，如果古巴继续推行压制政策并窃取近期美国运抵的援助物资，该国将被追究责任。 长期以来，古巴一直是委内瑞拉的盟友，通过提供医疗、安全和情报人员来换取补贴石油。在美国的行动中，近 30名负责保护马杜罗的古巴特工丧生，他们的遗体于周四被运回古巴。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 作为全球最大的独立石油贸易商之一，Gunvor再次涌入北海原油市场抢购现货，此时欧洲正面临来自哈萨克 斯坦的供应严重短缺。据监测关键定价窗口的交 ...

转自：新华财经 短期支撑因素减退 近期，伊朗多地发生抗议活动，其间出现骚乱，造成人员伤亡。连日来，特朗普多次威胁军事干涉伊朗 局势。面对美国的威胁，伊朗密集展开外交沟通的同时，也提高了战备状态。紧接着多国呼吁本国公民 撤离伊朗，英国暂时关闭驻伊朗大使馆，加上伊朗暂时关闭领空等消息，更是提高了伊朗局势紧张的氛 围。 对于商品市场而言，伊朗局势紧张直接构成了推动包括原油、贵金属在内不少商品短期上涨的重要驱 动。盘面显示，上周（截至1月9日当周）国际油价后两日快速拉涨，一举扭转上周初的弱势走势，并在 1月14日盘中，WTI原油最高触及62美元／桶上方，布伦特原油更是逼近67美元／桶，均为2025年10月 以来的新高。黄金和白银则更是在避险买盘的加持下，连续刷新历史新高。 不过，不到一日，油市风云急变。 美国总统特朗普当地时间1月14日在白宫对媒体说，他已获悉伊朗国内"杀戮已经停止"，美方将"拭目以 待，观察事态发展"。被记者问及美国是否已排除对伊朗军事干涉的可能性时，特朗普说："我们将拭目 以待，观察事态发展。" 特朗普的这一表态，被市场普遍解读为美国对伊朗的军事打击已经从"极有可能"转变为"可能性较低"， 从而缓 ...

Group 1 - Oil and gas stocks experienced significant declines, with Shandong Molong (00568) dropping over 8%, closing at 3.8 HKD with a trading volume of 1.22 billion HKD [1] - International oil prices fell sharply due to the possibility of Trump avoiding military action against Iran, breaking the continuous upward trend [1] - Brent crude futures decreased by 2.76 USD or 4.15%, settling at 63.76 USD per barrel, while U.S. crude dropped by 2.83 USD or 4.56%, closing at 59.19 USD [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Trump has postponed the decision on whether to strike Iran, leading to increased uncertainty regarding military options [1] - Huatai Futures suggests that if Trump does not take military action against Iran, the geopolitical premium will quickly dissipate, indicating a fragile foundation for oil price support [1] - The CPC terminal is expected to resume operations soon, further impacting the oil market dynamics [1]

Market Overview - The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.83, closing at $59.19 per barrel, a decline of 4.56% [2] - The March delivery price of Brent crude oil futures dropped by $2.76, closing at $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15% [2] - The main contract for SC crude oil fell by 2.34%, settling at 442 yuan per barrel [2] Geopolitical Developments - Following successful military actions against Venezuela, the U.S. is intensifying its rhetoric towards Cuba, indicating potential stronger measures unless the Cuban government changes its current policies [2] - The U.S. military has recently seized a sixth oil tanker associated with the "shadow fleet," indicating ongoing efforts to control Venezuelan oil sales [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Gunvor, a major independent oil trader, has aggressively purchased North Sea crude amid significant supply shortages from Kazakhstan, highlighting the tightness in the European oil market [2][3] - The supply tightness contrasts sharply with the expected global surplus for the year, pushing the Brent-Dubai spread to its highest level since June [3] - It is anticipated that the export volume of CPC mixed oil will rebound to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in February as weather conditions improve [3][8] Indian Oil Market Adjustments - India's crude oil imports from Russia may stabilize or decline, leading to more Russian oil remaining at sea, with December imports hitting a three-year low [4] - Indian refiners are adjusting their procurement strategies, increasingly sourcing oil from the Middle East, West Africa, and Latin America, despite higher costs [4][8] Investment Insights - Recent declines in oil prices align with expectations that geopolitical premiums are largely sentiment-driven, with potential for rapid decreases if military actions do not escalate [4] - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a medium-term bearish outlook on oil prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical sentiment towards Iran has reversed and cooled down, which remains the main short - term driver. Geopolitical premium is a short - term disturbance, and the mid - term strategy for oil is to go short after the geopolitical sentiment subsides [1][3]. - Chemical products are also affected by geopolitical sentiment in the short term and will continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories increased, indicating market oversupply. However, the market is more focused on the geopolitical risk in Iran. Geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the worst - case scenario is based on the small - scale air strike in June last year and Iran's limited retaliation. Geopolitical premium is a short - term factor, and the mid - term strategy is to go short [1][2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term upward structure may end. Today, it fell after reducing positions at a high level, breaking below the short - term support at 447. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the hourly cycle [3]. Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The market is mainly concerned about the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. Currently, Venezuelan crude oil exports have basically stopped, but if exports resume, the previous upward logic of asphalt due to raw material shortage will be broken [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, maintaining a small - cycle oscillation range of 15 minutes. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [5]. Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate of styrene is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month and at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and commodity sentiment have led to a short - term strong performance. But there are concerns about the sustainability of the raw material strength after the Iranian unrest subsides [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6990 (02 contract). The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound if it breaks below the support [8]. Rubber - Logic: The terminal tire inventory is high, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to increase and is higher year - on - year. There is no disturbance on the supply side for now. This upward trend is passively following the synthetic rubber. With the weakening of downstream tire operating rates, the upward space is limited [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and then fell to test the support below. The short - term support is at 15800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [11]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and the tire operating rate weakened again, limiting the upward space [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 11800. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [15]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong both in reality and in expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a sharp price increase. However, downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season, and some large polyester filament manufacturers have started to reduce production. It is facing a short - term callback due to negative feedback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure on the verge of breaking. Today, it fell sharply, breaking below the lower limit of the range at 7120. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but downstream polyester's low acceptance of high prices during the off - season and production cuts by some manufacturers lead to a short - term callback. In the mid - term, there is an opportunity for a second low - buying due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it tested the lower limit of the oscillation range at 5010. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain where PP - plastic belongs are still weak. With new capacity release pressure and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. It lacks a one - sided long - buying drive and is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [25][27][39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6430. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher year - on - year. If the inventory reduction rate in January is slow, there will be pressure. Also, the appreciation of the RMB has lowered the import cost. As the Iranian unrest subsides, the geopolitical premium will be reversed [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle after closing out short positions in the 15 - minute cycle [29]. PVC - Logic: PVC still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. However, Shaanxi's planned differential electricity price may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production. The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative drivers, with an expected short - term domestic inventory reduction due to pre - export rush [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term support is at 4725. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there is a concern about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, domestic weekly production remains high, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Port inventories are still increasing, and the fundamentals do not provide a driving force for a sharp reversal [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is not clear. Today, it increased positions and broke through, and the hourly structure may start to decline. The short - term pressure is at 3900. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends in the hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain are weak, lacking a one - sided long - buying drive. It is recommended to be used in the hedging strategy of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and going short on olefins (PP, plastic) [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell. The short - term support is at 6670. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. After the supply - side maintenance resumed, the operating rate increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a sharp reversal [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - negative candlestick, confirming the short - term downward trend. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle. If entering the market in the morning, the stop - loss reference is 1215 (15 - minute K - line closing price) [41]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and reached a new low. The short - term pressure is at 2125. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance for the asphalt industry. It recommends going long on the BU main contract on dips, and taking long positions on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market is strengthening, providing solid support to the cost side of asphalt. Although the rigid demand for asphalt is weak, supply is also restricted, leading to tight local asphalt spot circulation. The BU futures price has shifted to a sideways trend after pricing in the expected tightening of Venezuelan oil supply. With the escalation of the situation in South America and rising benchmark oil prices due to the Iran situation, the cost - side support for asphalt remains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 14, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 203,327 lots, down 4,581 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 199,146 lots, down 81,301 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,040 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in North China and Shandong have increased, while those in other regions have remained stable [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. Go long on the BU main contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term driving force of crude oil is centered around the Iranian geopolitical risks. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and it is advisable to wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities. Chemical products should be viewed differently. Methanol has significant fundamental pressure, and its geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. The short - term strength of styrene is due to inventory reduction, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. PX - PTA is in an adjustment phase, and it is not yet time to enter the second long position. The fundamentals of PP and plastics in the olefin chain are weak, maintaining a bearish view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In addition to the inventory build - up in the first - quarter supply - demand balance sheets of the three major institutions, the API crude oil and refined oil inventories in the US showed a significant build - up again. The market is currently driven by Iranian geopolitical risks, but there are no pre - conditions for a short - term military strike. Geopolitical premiums are short - term disturbances, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be awaited. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It faced resistance at the 447 level today and support is at the 433 (03 contract) level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [4]. (2) Asphalt - Logic: The downstream terminal demand is in the off - season. The current pricing of the market mainly depends on the future flow of Venezuelan Merey crude oil. If Venezuelan crude oil flows to the US instead of Asia, the increase in cost of alternative raw materials for domestic refineries will support the market. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, with intraday fluctuations returning to the oscillation range. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Styrene - Logic: The weekly operating rate is 70.92%, slightly increasing month - on - month but at a low level year - on - year. Both supply and demand are weak. However, since December, export inquiries and actual transactions have increased, and port inventories have decreased significantly. The continuous inventory reduction and market sentiment have led to short - term strength, but the sustainability of the raw material's strength is questionable. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure, reaching a short - term high with increased positions today. The short - term support has moved up to the 6990 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities after a rebound when the support is broken [10]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Terminal tire inventories are high, and Qingdao's natural rubber inventories continue to build up and are higher than the same period last year. There are no disruptions on the supply side, and it is not yet in the speculative stage. This upward movement is a passive follow - up of synthetic rubber, and the upside is limited due to the weakening of downstream tire operating rates. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It reached a high and then declined today, with the short - term support moving up to the 15800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [14]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Supply remains high, but the downstream's phased restocking has led to inventory reduction of synthetic rubber and its raw material butadiene. The strengthening of butadiene has driven the upward movement of synthetic rubber from the cost side. However, the spot trading of butadiene weakened over the weekend, and tire operating rates weakened again, limiting the upside. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today. The short - term support has moved up to the 11800 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [18]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 7420 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. In December, capital inflows led to a significant price increase, but downstream polyester has a low acceptance of high prices during the off - season. Some large polyester filament manufacturers are reducing production, leading to a short - term correction. In the mid - term, there is an expected supply shortage in the first half of the year, so it is advisable to wait for a second low - buying opportunity. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term upward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term oscillation structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with short - term pressure at the 5220 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [23][25]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which PP belongs are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It closed slightly up with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 6430 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply remains high, and the expected reduction in imports in January has been priced in the market. Downstream traditional demand is expected to decrease before the Spring Festival, and MTO demand is expected to decline due to compressed profits. Both port and inland inventories are high, and the port inventory is 154 million tons, 80% higher than the same period last year. The Iranian unrest is gradually subsiding, and the geopolitical premium is likely to reverse. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume today but failed to break through the upper limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 2200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see, and hold a short position on the 15 - minute chart with a stop - loss at the 2300 level [29]. (10) PVC - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand remains. However, the proposed differential electricity price in Shaanxi may lead to a reduction in calcium carbide production, which is positive. The announcement of canceling the VAT export tax rebate for PVC from April 1, 2026, brings short - term positive and long - term negative effects, with a short - term expectation of inventory reduction due to pre - export rush. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, with short - term support at the 4725 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and there are concerns about a decline in polyester operating rates. On the supply side, coal - based production has recovered, and domestic weekly production remains high, with new production capacity expected. Port inventories are still building up, and there is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It increased in volume with reduced positions today, and the short - term support is at the 3800 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [35]. (12) Plastics - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain to which plastics belong are still weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and the off - season of demand, the supply - demand drive is weak. There is no driving force for a long - position. It is recommended to use a chemical configuration logic of going long on aromatics (PX, PTA) and short on olefins (PP, plastics) in the mid - term. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level chart shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level chart shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at the 66070 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [37][39]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged, and there is little expectation of an increase in terminal demand. After the resumption of maintenance on the supply side, the operating rate has increased, and the previous support from inventory reduction is no longer there. There is no driving force for a significant reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. It oscillated within the day today. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a small - cycle rebound when the price breaks below the lower limit of the 15 - minute oscillation range at the 1200 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [41]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, and there is no sign of a reversal. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level chart shows a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term pressure is at the 2125 level. The hourly - cycle strategy is to wait and see [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding. ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding. ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure. ★ [1] - Nickel: Under pressure and decline. ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment. ★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals: Long - term and short - term factors are intertwined. The long - term logic for gold and silver is to go long, but short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as index rebalancing, margin hikes, and resource scarcity [1][2][4]. - Copper: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. In the long term, it is optimistic due to supply shortages and growing green demand [1][6][7]. - Zinc: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises are advised to arrange short - hedging [1][9][10]. - Aluminum: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory [1][13][14]. - Nickel: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate: It is in a high - level adjustment. Long - positions can take profits gradually on rallies [1][20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market performance**: Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels. SHFE gold decreased by 0.10% to 997.94, COMEX gold increased by 0.47% to 4488. SHFE silver decreased by 4.35% to 18450, COMEX silver decreased by 1.65% to 77 [2]. - **Influencing factors**: China's central bank continues to purchase gold. US employment data is mixed, and the service industry PMI is rising. The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may cause selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short - term support for silver is at 18000, and for gold is at 990. In 2026, the support for precious metals remains strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market performance**: Copper is oscillating at high levels. The closing price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 1.61% to 100230 yuan/ton [5]. - **Industry logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight. The production of some mines is affected. The domestic electrolytic copper output in December is high, but it is expected to decline in January. High copper prices suppress demand, but new demand in some fields is strong [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [98500, 102500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market performance**: Zinc is falling back in oscillation. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 1.02% to 23800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industry logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined. The production of refined zinc in December decreased. The demand in some traditional fields is weak, but new - energy demand is growing [9]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the long - positions should take profits on rallies. It is expected to fluctuate widely in January. Enterprises should arrange short - hedging. The range for SHFE zinc is [23500, 24000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3100, 3200] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: Aluminum prices are falling back under pressure. The closing price of LME aluminum decreased by 0.41% to 3071 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 2.61% to 23725 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry logic**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods is rising, and the downstream demand is weak. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [23000 - 24500] [14]. Nickel - **Market performance**: Nickel prices are falling back. The closing price of LME nickel decreased by 2.69% to 17180 dollars/ton, and the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 7.64% to 136440 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry logic**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [125000 - 145000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, hitting a new high during the session, and the gains narrowed at the end [19]. - **Industry logic**: The weekly output has increased slightly. The downstream demand provides support, but the production of some downstream factories is decreasing [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is operating at a high level in the range of [135000 - 150000] [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].