2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：弱现实与强预期博弈 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：装置变动不大 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品低利润低库存 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 PTA 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the basis, basis rate, historical quantiles, spot price, futures price, and spot reference for various commodities including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures on February 2, 2026 [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - For silicon iron (SF603), the basis is 18, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 57.40%, spot price is 5678, and futures price is 5660 [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the basis is 122, basis rate is 1.67%, historical quantile is 45.00%, spot price is 5970, and futures price is 5872 [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the basis is 3.90%, historical quantile is 54.00%, spot price is 3250, and futures price is 3128 [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the basis is - 18, basis rate is 0.55%, historical quantile is 11.40%, spot price is 3270, and futures price is 3288 [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the basis is 46, basis rate is 5.79%, historical quantile is 83.70%, spot price is 837, and futures price is 792 [1] - For coke (J2605), the basis is 13, basis rate is 0.74%, historical quantile is 72.71%, spot price is 1734, and futures price is 1722 [1] - For coking coal (JM2605), the basis is 0, basis rate is 0.04%, historical quantile is 32.00%, spot price is 1156, and futures price is 1156 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2603), the basis is 730, basis rate is 0.70%, historical quantile is 94.37%, spot price is 104410, and futures price is 103680 [1] - For aluminum (AL2603), the basis is 100, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 85.20%, spot price is 24660, and futures price is 24560 [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the basis is - 145, basis rate is 9.91%, historical quantile is 45.25%, spot price is 2623, and futures price is 2768 [1] - For zinc (ZN2603), the basis is - 55, basis rate is 0.43%, historical quantile is 33.95%, spot price is 25835, and futures price is 25720 [1] - For tin (SN2603), the basis is 18650, basis rate is 4.80%, historical quantile is 99.79%, spot price is 428650, and futures price is 409000 [1] - For nickel (NI2603), the basis is 2700, basis rate is 1.93%, historical quantile is 98.54%, spot price is 142700, and futures price is 140000 [1] - For stainless steel (SS2603), the basis is 430, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 79.18%, spot price is 14570, and futures price is 14140 [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the basis is 12300, basis rate is 8.30%, historical quantile is 99.55%, spot price is 160500, and futures price is 148200 [1] - For industrial silicon (SISEOF), the basis is 400, basis rate is 4.52%, historical quantile is 23.35%, spot price is 9250, and futures price is 8850 [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2604), the basis is 2.6, basis rate is 0.20%, historical quantile is 99.80%, spot price is 1164.0, and futures price is 1161.4 [1] - For silver (AG2604), the basis is - 411.0, basis rate is - 1.50%, historical quantile is 0.40%, spot price is 27941.0, and futures price is 27530.0 [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the basis is 293.0, basis rate is 10.59%, historical quantile is 69.90%, spot price is 3060, and futures price is 2767.0 [1] - For soybean oil (V2605), the basis is 338.0, basis rate is 4.08%, historical quantile is 62.30%, spot price is 8620, and futures price is 8282.0 [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is 10.54%, historical quantile is 11.20%, spot price is 9190, and futures price is 9240.0 [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the basis is 183.0, basis rate is 8.00%, historical quantile is 82.00%, spot price is 2470, and futures price is 2287.0 [1] - For rapeseed oil (Oleos), the basis is - 770.0, basis rate is 8.21%, historical quantile is 96.20%, spot price is 9380.0, and futures price is 10150 [1] - For corn (C2603), the basis is 69.0, basis rate is 3.04%, historical quantile is 70.30%, spot price is 2340, and futures price is 2271.0 [1] - For corn starch (CS2603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 4.32%, historical quantile is 53.20%, spot price is 2630, and futures price is 2521.0 [1] - For live pigs (LH2603), the basis is 1430.0, basis rate is 12.75%, historical quantile is 84.00%, spot price is 12650, and futures price is 11220.0 [1] - For eggs (JD2603), the basis is 1018.0, basis rate is 33.91%, historical quantile is 92.70%, spot price is 4020 [1] - For cotton (CF605), the basis is 1130.0, basis rate is 7.70%, historical quantile is 75.80%, spot price is 15800, and futures price is 14670.0 [1] - For sugar (SR605), the basis is 132.0, basis rate is 2.52%, historical quantile is 18.50%, spot price is 5380, and futures price is 5248.0 [1] - For apples (AP605), the basis is - 118.0, basis rate is 1.24%, historical quantile is 19.20%, spot price is 9518.0, and futures price is 9400 [1] - For red dates (C1605), the basis is - 950.0, basis rate is 10.61%, historical quantile is 44.60%, spot price is 8000, and futures price is 8950.0 [1] Energy and Chemical Products - For paraxylene (PX603), the basis is 30.0, basis rate is 0.41%, historical quantile is 37.90%, spot price is 7312.0, and futures price is 7282.0 [1] - For PTA (TA605), the basis is - 70.0, basis rate is + 1.33%, historical quantile is 29.60%, spot price is 5270.0, and futures price is 5200.0 [1] - For ethylene glycol (EG2605), the basis is - 108.0, basis rate is 16.60%, historical quantile is 42.76%, spot price is 3805.0, and futures price is 3913.0 [1] - For polyester staple fiber (PF603), the basis is 14.0, basis rate is 0.21%, historical quantile is 47.40%, spot price is 6670.0, and futures price is 6656.0 [1] - For styrene (EB2603), the basis is - 171.0, basis rate is 2.22%, historical quantile is 63.40%, spot price is 7714.0, and futures price is 7885.0 [1] - For methanol (MA605), the basis is - 50.0, basis rate is + 2.16%, historical quantile is 11.80%, spot price is 2270.0, and futures price is 2320.0 [1] - For urea (UR605), the basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, historical quantile is 16.70%, spot price is 1790.0, and futures price is 1790.0 [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the basis is - 64.0, basis rate is + 0.91%, historical quantile is 8.30%, spot price is 7014.0, and futures price is 6950.0 [1] - For PP (PP2605), the basis is - 34.0, basis rate is 10.50%, historical quantile is 18.20%, spot price is 6824.0, and futures price is 6790.0 [1] - For PVC (V2605), the basis is - 283.0, basis rate is 9.30%, historical quantile is 45.59%, spot price is 5063.0, and futures price is 4780.0 [1] - For caustic soda (SH603), the basis is 109.0, basis rate is 13.01%, historical quantile is 27.70%, spot price is 1975.0, and futures price is 1866.0 [1] - For LPG (PG2603), the basis is 558.0, basis rate is 73.40%, historical quantile is 44.79%, spot price is 4848.0, and futures price is 4290.0 [1] - For asphalt (BU2603), the basis is - 164.0, basis rate is 12.91%, historical quantile is 17.90%, spot price is 3260.0, and futures price is 3424.0 [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2603), the basis is - 390.0, basis rate is 4.60%, historical quantile is 12.34%, spot price is 13000.0, and futures price is 13390.0 [1] - For glass (FG605), the basis is - 116.0, basis rate is 28.51%, historical quantile is 43.44%, spot price is 1056.0, and futures price is 940.0 [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the basis is - 40.0, basis rate is 29.97%, historical quantile is 28.51%, spot price is 1204.0, and futures price is 1164.0 [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the basis is - 110.0, basis rate is 10.68%, historical quantile is 88.07%, spot price is 16360.0, and futures price is 16250.0 [1] Financial Futures - For IF2603.CFE, the basis is 4.7, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 77.50%, spot price is 4711.0, and futures price is 4706.3 [1] - For IH2603.CFE, the basis is 7.5, basis rate is 0.24%, historical quantile is 90.70%, spot price is 3074.0, and futures price is 3066.5 [1] - For IC2603.CFE, the basis is - 8.1, basis rate is + 0.10%, historical quantile is 71.60%, spot price is 8370.5, and futures price is 8362.4 [1] - For IM2603.CFE, the basis is 5.7, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 91.20%, spot price is 8260.6, and futures price is 8254.9 [1] - For 2 - year bond (TS2603), the basis is 0.04, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 41.70%, spot price is 102.39, and futures price is 100.11 [1] - For 5 - year bond (TF2603), the basis is 0.01, basis rate is 0.01%, historical quantile is 30.00%, spot price is 105.88, and futures price is 99.66 [1] - For 10 - year bond (T2603), the basis is 0.06, basis rate is 0.05%, historical quantile is 23.30%, spot price is 108.29, and futures price is 100.63 [1] - For 30 - year bond (TL2603), the basis is 0.61, basis rate is 0.54%, historical quantile is 84.70%, spot price is 126.60, and futures price is 111.86 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资和咖业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年2月2日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.66 | 92.60% | 77.50% | 上期间处差 | -25.47 | H期现价来 | 7.50 | -11.98 | 94.60% | 90.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 90.10% | -8.12 | -7.88 | 71,60% | IM期现价差 | 5.74 | 18.79 | 90.00% | 91,20% | 次月-当月 | -8.40 | 92.6096 | 62.40% | 1.00 | | | 零月-当月 | -10.20 | -7.20 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. Affected by the overall market today, the price has declined, but there is support from anti - involution and rising energy costs. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will limit the price rebound space. In the short term, the futures price may maintain a volatile trend with a limited range. In February, as downstream enterprises gradually shut down for the holiday, the pre - holiday demand may weaken further, and the price may undergo a weak adjustment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing weakness during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the middle Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 167,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 14,274 lots. The intraday high was 1230, the low was 1197, and the closing price was 1204, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and they mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 46 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 300,900 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and the procurement enthusiasm was poor. They mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and the overall output is increasing with new capacity. The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered due to the resumption of a glass production line. Affected by the overall market, the price has dropped today, but there is support. The high inventory pressure limits the price rebound. In the short term, the price may fluctuate, and in February, it may weaken as downstream demand declines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short - term, asphalt is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend, and the arbitrage suggestion is mainly reverse arbitrage. The supply of asphalt is at a low level, and there may be a shortage of raw materials in the future. Although the demand is weak, there is some stocking and arbitrage demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have available raw material inventories before March, and the asphalt supply will be tight at the end of the month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt planned production is 193.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 5.80% week - on - week to 214,500 tons. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operation will remain at a low level [1]. - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined this week. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 14%. The rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is stocking and arbitrage demand. Southern projects are gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The Asian sales price of Venezuelan oil has risen [1]. - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract has risen to - 164 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.38% to 3,424 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,407 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,554 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 24,185 to 145,873 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but is still negative [4]. - Demand side: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 6.0%, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 30, most downstream operating rates of asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].