Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

Group 1 - Consumption is a crucial engine for economic growth and a key link in the domestic circulation, reflecting the people's pursuit of a better life [1][2][4] - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" released by the Central Committee and the State Council aims to implement precise measures to stimulate consumption [1][2] - The shift in consumer preferences from basic needs to quality and service experiences indicates an upgrade in living standards and a change in social contradictions [2][4] Group 2 - The scale of the new energy vehicle market in China is expected to exceed 11 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.1%, driving the rapid development of over 20 related industries [2] - China's per capita GDP has surpassed $13,000, leading to a transition from survival-based consumption to development and enjoyment-based consumption [2] - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [2] Group 3 - The focus on domestic consumption is essential for economic development, especially in the context of rising global protectionism and unilateralism [4][10] - Strengthening regulatory measures is necessary to create a fair and secure consumption environment, ensuring consumer rights and market stability [5][10] - Enhancing the interconnectivity of various consumption policies, including fiscal, financial, and industrial policies, is crucial for driving consumption growth [6][10] Group 4 - Achieving equal access to basic public services in urban and rural areas is vital for alleviating consumer confidence issues and enhancing social security levels [7] - The government aims to increase public education funding from 2.62% to over 3% of GDP and raise healthcare spending from around 3% to 6% by 2030 [7] - The focus on improving the consumption environment and fostering new growth points is essential for expanding and upgrading consumption [10][11] Group 5 - Innovation in consumption scenarios, including digital and smart services, is necessary to stimulate internal consumption dynamics [11][12] - Building strong service brands and enhancing brand value through quality and innovation will help meet diverse consumer needs [12] - The integration of traditional culture and modern branding strategies can enrich brand narratives and enhance market recognition [12]

央视网消息：5月9日，中国人民银行发布2025年一季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告显示，一季度货币政策逆周期调节效果明显，人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 专家表示，从一季度货币政策报告可以看出具体政策操作进一步优化，比如调整中期借贷便利（MLF）中标方式、优化两项资本市场支 持工具，将支农再贷款和支小再贷款合并为支农支小再贷款等。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进一步优化，持续多 年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 一季度货币政策执行报告解读：加大支持实体经济力度 支持扩大消费 专家表示，一季度货币政策执行报告中，新的政策信号不断释放，包括进一步加大支持实体经济力度、支持扩大消费等。 在进一步加大支持实体经济力度方面，报告释放出积极的信号，货币政策持续保持适度宽松力度。在支持扩大消费方面，报告对此进行了 专题论述，5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款也于9日正式推出。市场预计，未来服务领域的消费潜力有望进一步激发释放。 我国广义政府总资产相当于GDP的166%，总负债相当于GDP的75%，净资产约占 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting the bond market's healthy development and highlights the risks associated with interest rate fluctuations in the bond market [1] - It notes that while government bonds carry no credit risk, their market prices are subject to reverse fluctuations when market interest rates change, thus facing interest rate risk [1] - The report suggests encouraging large banks to engage more in bond trading to help maintain market supply-demand balance and promote reasonable bond pricing [1] Group 2 - The report advocates for creating a favorable financial environment to boost and expand consumption, especially as external demand weakens due to global trade tensions [2] - It outlines that the People's Bank of China will implement moderately loose monetary policies and introduce a package of financial measures to support consumption [2] - The report identifies ongoing issues in the real economy, such as weak demand and excessive competition in certain sectors, which affect price levels [2] Group 3 - The report states that promoting a reasonable rebound in prices requires balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [3] - It calls for deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policies, including fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security, to enhance policy synergy [3] - The report suggests a shift in price control strategies from managing high prices to managing low prices, emphasizing high-quality development over mere scale expansion [3]

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing moderately loose monetary policies and ensuring ample liquidity in the financial market [1][2] - As of March, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% and 7.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 265.4 trillion yuan [1] - The cost of social financing is at a historical low, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 50 and 60 basis points year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need to further support the real economy, aligning with the central political bureau's meeting spirit, indicating confidence in the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy [2] - There is a focus on boosting consumption, especially in the context of weakening external demand, with new initiatives aimed at stimulating service consumption and elderly care loans [2] - The report highlights the ability to effectively respond to external shocks, particularly in light of U.S. tariff policies impacting the global economic order, indicating a proactive macro policy response [2][3] Group 3 - The industry anticipates that moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with a coordinated approach between fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic responses [3] - A comprehensive financial policy package was announced, including measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [3] - The timely implementation of these policies is expected to better support domestic demand expansion and facilitate reasonable economic operation [3]

推动更多资金资源"投资于人"、服务于民生，让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民 读懂"投资于人"的重要意义，不妨从投资需要、投资回报、投资基础这三个角度来看。 经济越发展，民生工作越要抓好。把更多民生清单转化为投资清单，让"投资于人"管当前又利长远，量 力而行、久久为功，终将绽放长期收益，发展成果将更多更公平惠及全体人民。 首先，"投资于人"有需要。比如就业，今年我国高校毕业生规模创新高、脱贫人口务工规模要保持在 3000万人以上，就业压力加大，迫切需要更多稳岗支持；再说住房，城镇化进程中，大量老旧社区急需 维护改造；还有养老，我国老龄化快速加深，而养老护理缺口仍然很大。进入高质量发展阶段，人民对 美好生活的向往更加强烈，对这些急难愁盼问题和结构性矛盾，特别是具有长期性、复杂性、艰巨性的 民生痛点，有必要加大力度推动解决。 （文章来源：人民日报） 其次，"投资于人"有回报。惠民生也是稳经济、促发展。比如科技创新，今年以来国产人工智能大模型 惊艳世界，美国麦克罗波洛智库报告指出，"中国高校几乎培养了全球一半的顶尖人工智能人才。"创新 驱动实质靠人才驱动，人才红利则源自教育耕耘。我国财政性教育经费投入占国内生产总值比 ...

增持（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 钢铁 约束供给扩大消费 行情回顾（4.28-4.30）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,528.72 点，下跌 0.52%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.09pct，位列 30 个中信 一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：受假期影响本周交易日有限，海外交易市场贵金属价格出现一定的调整，黑色商 品则依然震荡。根据财联社，宝钢回应近期钢铁市场传闻行业将限产 5000 万吨以应对近年 来市场供需结构的变化是大概率事件，但随后黑色商品价格表现平淡，行业内对今年限产落 实疑虑较大。由于过去在执行中存在一定的落实障碍，加之今年的监督和奖惩还缺少更多的 细节，市场抱有一定的疑虑是正常的。中国"内卷"很大原因是由于地方政府尤其青睐重资 产的制造业，一是因为投资规模大，对 GDP 拉动作用明显；二是因为增值税在生产环节征 收，跟生产规模直接挂钩；三是因为制造业不仅可以吸纳从农业部门转移出的低技能劳动力， 也可以带动第三产业发展，增加相关税收。因为绝大多数税收征收自企业，且多在生产环节 征收，所以过去地方政府重视企业 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 钢铁 约束供给扩大消费 行情回顾（4.28-4.30）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,528.72 点，下跌 0.52%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.09pct，位列 30 个中信 一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：受假期影响本周交易日有限，海外交易市场贵金属价格出现一定的调整，黑色商 品则依然震荡。根据财联社，宝钢回应近期钢铁市场传闻行业将限产 5000 万吨以应对近年 来市场供需结构的变化是大概率事件，但随后黑色商品价格表现平淡，行业内对今年限产落 实疑虑较大。由于过去在执行中存在一定的落实障碍，加之今年的监督和奖惩还缺少更多的 细节，市场抱有一定的疑虑是正常的。中国"内卷"很大原因是由于地方政府尤其青睐重资 产的制造业，一是因为投资规模大，对 GDP 拉动作用明显；二是因为增值税在生产环节征 收，跟生产规模直接挂钩；三是因为制造业不仅可以吸纳从农业部门转移出的低技能劳动力， 也可以带动第三产业发展，增加相关税收。因为绝大多数税收征收自企业，且多在生产环节 征收，所以过去地方政府重视企业而相对轻视民生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting emphasizes expanding consumption and highlights investment opportunities in the travel chain for the upcoming May Day holiday, with a focus on service consumption as a key driver for domestic demand growth [1] - The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in travel bookings and a notable increase in cross-border travel demand [1][2] - The report suggests that the combination of policy support and market demand will likely propel the tourism market into a new phase, recommending attention to investment opportunities in the travel chain [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The CITIC retail index rose by 0.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points [2][16] - The retail sector ranked 14th among 30 CITIC primary industries this week, with supermarkets and convenience stores showing the largest gains [2][23] Industry Dynamics Tracking - Notable developments include the opening of Aldi's first store in Wuxi, Hema achieving its first annual profit, and the cancellation of the "refund only" policy by major e-commerce platforms [3][41] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: 1. Recovery in gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks, with recommendations for companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng [4] 2. Gradual recovery in offline sales due to consumption-promoting policies, with a focus on traditional supermarkets like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. Optimized competition landscape in the e-commerce sector, with recommendations for platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4] Industry Data Tracking - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.09 trillion yuan, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in online retail sales [27][29] - The report highlights the resilience of essential consumer goods and the mixed performance of discretionary spending categories [33][39]

其次，随着美国关税政策的影响边际递减，投资者风险偏好逐渐回升，加之中国政府实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，这些都有助于提升市场的整体情绪，进 而可能促进科技板块的表现。 此外，科技板块作为自主可控程度较高的行业，受益于国家政策的支持，特别是在科技创新、扩大消费 等方面，这为科技企业提供了良好的发展环境。 今日，港股科技盘中走低，新能源、医药、通信集体回调，港股科技ETF（513020）跌1.6%，网罗港股 互联网+硬科技龙头，资金持续布局中，连续4日净流入额超1.3亿元，今年来份额增长超130%。 银河证券表示，从估值角度来看，截至4月17日，资讯科技业的PE估值处于2019年以来40%分位数以 下，表明该行业估值处于历史中低水平，这意味着相对于历史估值，当前科技板块具有一定的估值吸引 力。 港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪中证港股通科技指数，包括互联网、新能源车、芯片、生物医药和创新药 等核心科技板块，代表了中国科技资产的整体投资价值。相比于恒生科技指数，港股通科技指数在科技 领域布局更均衡，能更好把握成长板块的投资机会。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过港股科技ET ...