Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and oscillated, and continued its decline today, weakening again in the afternoon. With the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, leading to a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, increasing short - term long - closing willingness. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Aluminum prices decreased significantly with reduced positions last night, stabilized in oscillation today, and the position volume continued to decline. Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, causing a general decline in domestic commodities. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faces pressure at the March high, with strong long - closing willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated downward today, with a slight decline in position volume, causing the futures price to break below 121,000 at the end of the session. After the Fed's interest rate cut, long - position holders closed their positions, resulting in a general decline in domestic commodities. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are rising, which is bearish for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will tend to oscillate [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In the North China electrolytic copper market, high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream consumption. Although copper prices have declined, downstream enterprises are still hesitant to buy due to price concerns. As smelters are about to conduct centralized maintenance, their enthusiasm for selling is low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, market trading is inactive [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 141.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.40% [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 121,400 and 124,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 2,100 and 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between - 100 and 300 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, etc. [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread after the restart of the main PDH [3] - Cross - period: After the restart of the main PDH, focus on the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, two PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei restarted and increased production. There is still a load reduction at Binhua, the PDH unit of Qingdao Jinneng continues to be under maintenance, Shandong Zhenhua is expected to restart in the short term, and the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa in the East China region continue to be shut down [2] - On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream are greatly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up rate of PP has decreased significantly, the price difference between PP and propylene has narrowed significantly, and the start - up of powder materials is difficult to recover. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the start - up of phenol - acetone has also decreased significantly. The PO unit of Qixiangtengda is shut down for maintenance, and the start - up of propylene oxide is expected to decline. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the start - up rate continues to rise. After the restart of the Wanhua acrylic acid unit, the start - up rate has the largest increase. Downstream purchases at low prices, and the demand support has improved, but the downstream cost pressure has not been relieved, which may suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the center of oil prices has rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has continued to strengthen, so the cost side still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6462 yuan/ton (+17), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6615 yuan/ton (+65), the basis of propylene in East China is 13 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of propylene in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of propylene is 73% (-2%), the spread between Chinese propylene CFR and Japanese naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (+0) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is - 395 yuan/ton (-115) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of PP powder is 33% (-4.04%), and the production profit is - 205 yuan/ton (-65) [1] - The start - up rate of propylene oxide is 74% (+0%), and the production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - The start - up rate of n - butanol is 87% (+1%), and the production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (-46) [1] - The start - up rate of octanol is 96% (+1%), and the production profit is 15 yuan/ton (-54) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylic acid is 74% (+5%), and the production profit is 603 yuan/ton (+68) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 72% (-1%), and the production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - The start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 71% (+2%), and the production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and a relatively cheap valuation. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in urea prices is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1681.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 5.00 yuan (-0.30%) from September 16 [1] - UR05: 1734.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from September 16 [1] - UR09: 1755.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.11%) from September 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granules) - Shandong: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Shanxi: 1530.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 10.00 yuan (-0.65%) from September 16 [1] - Henan: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Hebei: 1680.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Northeast: 1660.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Jiangsu: 1650.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR basis: - 84.00 yuan/ton on September 17, up 3.00 yuan from September 16 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 53.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 2.00 yuan from September 16 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1000.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 880.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 2930.00 yuan/ton on September 17, down 20.00 yuan (-0.68%) from September 16 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2520.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5083.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on September 17, unchanged from September 16 [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1685 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1681 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1681 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 281,488 lots [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.8万吨，环比减少3.70%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库 存为21.9万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为73200 吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为-82元/吨，处于亏损状态，其综合开工率为 3 72.71%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为7.08万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为159元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为633.11元/吨，再生铝开工 率为55.5%，环比增加0.36%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 刚需采买策略，现货市场整体成交较为冷清，现货升水维持200元/吨，国内库存增加。LME库存回升，且 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 现货升水大幅下调。技术面，持仓减量价格调整，多空交投分歧，面临27.5压力。操作上，建议暂时观望 ，或区间操作。 免责声明 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-09-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 272540 | -190 10月-11月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -350 | -50 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 34750 | 70 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 23007 | -1266 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -2009 | 140 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2645 | 0 | | | 上期所库存: ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend due to the boost of macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SF2511 is 5700, with no change from the previous trading day, and the trading volume is 210,936, and the open interest is 212,449; the closing price of SF2601 is 5680, up 20 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 80,355 and an open interest of 95,537. For manganese silicon, the closing price of MS2511 is 5920, up 26 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 170,580 and an open interest of 115,197; the closing price of MS2601 is 5944, up 38 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 220,244 and an open interest of 335,721 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 11 futures) is - 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price spread of manganese silicon (spot - 01 futures) is - 214 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon iron (SF2511 - SF2601) is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the near - far month price spread of manganese silicon (MS2511 - MS2601) is - 24 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price spread of MS2511 - SF2511 is 220 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price spread of MS2601 - SF2601 is 264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Prices**: On September 16, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5200 - 5300 (+50), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5450 (+100), in Qinghai is 5250 - 5350 (+50), in Gansu is 5350 - 5400 (+50), and in Inner Mongolia is 5350 - 5400 (+50); the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5900, in Ningxia is 5700 - 5800, in Qinghai is 5750 - 5800, in Gansu is 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia is 5800 (cash - inclusive natural lump ex - factory, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1040 - 1060, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 (US dollars/ton, inclusive of tax). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash ex - factory tax - inclusive quotation) [1]. - **Steel Mill's Purchase**: A steel mill in Shandong has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5740 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 200 tons [1]. - **South Korea's Manganese Ore Import**: In August 2025, South Korea imported 110.02 tons of manganese ore, a sharp 99.73% decline from the previous month. From January to August 2025, South Korea imported a total of 248,588 tons of manganese ore, a slight 13.4% increase year - on - year, but a significant 58.14% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Due to the low iron alloy prices and high electricity costs, most South Korean alloy producers are not operating at full capacity, and some are still cutting production by 30% - 50%, resulting in low manganese ore imports since 2023 [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

2025 年 9 月 17 日 沥青：随油震荡，窄幅运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,426 | 0.44% | 3,454 | 0.82% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,411 | 0.53% | 3,440 | 0.85% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 12,611 | (3,611) | 21,222 | (1,636) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 162,489 | (41,821) | 234,581 | (6,096) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 65360 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

尿素：步入震荡格局，日内走势关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,686 | 1,683 | 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,691 | 1,679 | 1 2 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 129,472 | 166,237 | -36765 | | （01合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 277,334 | 284,978 | -7644 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 8,279 | 8,613 | -334 | | | | （万元） 成交额 | 437,832 | 558,324 | -120492 | | | | 山东地区基差 | -36 | -43 | 7 | | 基 | 差 | 丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - High Energy Environment (603588) is planning to engage in hedging and futures trading to mitigate risks associated with metal price fluctuations, with a maximum margin of 40 million yuan for hedging and 10 million yuan for futures trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Information - As of September 16, 2025, High Energy Environment's stock closed at 6.84 yuan, up 1.48%, with a turnover rate of 2.6%, trading volume of 396,500 shares, and a transaction value of 269 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 16.916 million yuan, accounting for 6.29% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 11.6033 million yuan, representing 4.32% of the total transaction value [2][4]. Group 2: Company Announcements - High Energy Environment plans to hold its fourth extraordinary general meeting on September 24, 2025, to review proposals related to its hedging and derivatives trading business for the 2025 fiscal year [3]. - The company aims to use its own funds for hedging activities to counteract the significant price volatility of metals recovered from hazardous waste disposal projects, with trading instruments including copper, nickel, lead, gold, silver, and palladium across various exchanges [3].

Group 1: Futures Hedging Business Status - In 2024, 1,503 non-financial A-share listed companies have announced futures hedging business, an increase of 192 companies compared to 2023, with an overall participation rate of 28.6% [3] - The participation in futures and derivatives markets shows stronger hedging orientation, increased demand for exchange rate risk hedging, and a rise in the use of swap and option tools [3] - 189 companies have newly entered or plan to enter the hedging business to mitigate risks such as raw material price risk, product sales price risk, inventory risk, and exchange rate risk [3] Group 2: Types of Futures Hedging Business - Companies engaged in hedging are primarily concentrated in the basic chemical, electronics, machinery, and new energy sectors, closely related to the diversification of chemical and new energy products in domestic futures exchanges [4] Group 3: Effectiveness of Futures Hedging Business - According to the "China Listed Companies Hedging Annual White Paper (2024)," 1,853 listed companies disclosed their hedging business and profitability in 2023, an increase of 241 companies from the previous year [5] - The top ten companies in terms of hedging profitability include Jinlongyu, Xin'ao Co., Wuchan Zhongda, Xiamen Guomao, Jianfa Co., Luxshare Precision, Daodaoquan, Jingliang Holdings, China Resources Materials, and Poly Development [5] Group 4: New Demands for Futures Hedging Business - Market participants believe that futures companies should enhance their professional capabilities and service levels to meet the diverse needs of listed companies, including customized risk management solutions and comprehensive financial services [6] Group 5: Progress in Value Management - The concept of value management has evolved over nearly 20 years since its introduction in 2005, with increasing regulation and standardization in practice [7] - Recent policies emphasize the integration of value management into the performance assessment of central enterprise leaders [7][8] Group 6: Value Management Goals and Tools - Central enterprises aim to enhance the quality of listed companies and improve core competitiveness through value management [9] - Tools for value management include mergers and acquisitions, market reforms, information disclosure, investor relations management, and stock buybacks [10] Group 7: Innovations in Value Management Practice - The release of the "Listed Company Supervision Guideline No. 10 - Value Management" has made value management a mandatory practice for listed companies [13] - By February 2025, over 180 listed companies had established institutional frameworks for value management [13] Group 8: Case Studies in Value Management - The merger of China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is a notable example of value management through mergers and acquisitions, resulting in significant increases in market capitalization [19][21] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has consistently increased its market value through share buybacks and dividends, reflecting strong investor confidence [22][23] Group 9: Future Challenges and Opportunities - There is a growing need for customized risk management solutions and comprehensive financial services in futures hedging, particularly for central enterprises [32] - The recognition of futures tools' functions is evolving, with an emphasis on resource allocation and risk management in value management practices [30][31]