Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance are discussing solutions to address the inconsistency between fundamental factors and exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the impact of gold prices on the Thai baht [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Gold Price Impact - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Roong Mallikamas, highlighted that gold prices are a non-fundamental factor influencing the Thai baht's performance [1] - Authorities are seeking ways to reduce the correlation between gold prices and the Thai baht [1] - The Thai baht has appreciated approximately 11% over the past year, making it one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, while gold prices reached record levels in April [1] Group 2: Policy Measures and Economic Role - Roong emphasized that the Thai baht should act as a shock absorber rather than amplifying shocks, indicating that non-fundamental issues need to be addressed [1] - Specific measures being planned to tackle these issues have not been disclosed, nor has a timeline for their announcement been provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has surpassed the 148 mark, reaching its highest level since June 23, with an intraday increase of 0.18% [1] Group 1 - The USD/JPY has crossed the 148 threshold, indicating a significant movement in the currency market [1] - This marks a new high for the USD/JPY since June 23, suggesting a strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen [1] - The intraday increase of 0.18% reflects ongoing trends in currency trading and market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is becoming a crucial asset allocation choice for investors to manage stock market volatility, especially as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle approaches its end [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Characteristics - The multi-tiered market structure meets diverse needs, with U.S. Treasuries serving as the risk-free rate benchmark, influencing global asset pricing [3] - Investment-grade corporate bonds offer a credit premium of 150-250 basis points over Treasuries, while high-yield bonds provide an 8%-12% coupon to compensate for default risk [3] - Inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and convertible bonds are emerging as new tools to combat volatility, with TIPS linked to the CPI index [3] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Interest rate risk is a core challenge, as bond prices move inversely to yields; a 1% increase in the 10-year Treasury yield could lead to a price drop of over 10% for long-term bonds [3] - The yield curve is currently deeply inverted, indicating recession risks while providing a window for positioning in medium to long-term bonds [3] - Credit risk requires dynamic assessment, with default rates for investment-grade bonds typically below 0.5%, while high-yield bonds can see rates of 5%-8% during economic downturns [5] Group 3: Currency and Liquidity Considerations - Currency fluctuations significantly impact cross-border returns, with a 14% appreciation of the dollar in 2022 leading to negative real returns for RMB-denominated holdings of U.S. Treasuries [5] - Daily trading volume for Treasuries exceeds $600 billion, with minimal bid-ask spreads, while high-yield corporate bonds may face 2%-5% price spread losses [5] - Retail investors are advised to use bond ETFs to mitigate liquidity shocks associated with individual bonds [5] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Current strategies for U.S. Treasury allocation should focus on a threefold balance: employing a barbell strategy with short-term and ultra-long-term Treasuries to address interest rate uncertainty [7] - Credit risk exposure should be limited to 20% of the portfolio, prioritizing corporate bonds with cash flow coverage ratios exceeding three times [7] - For holdings exceeding one year, hedging tools are recommended to manage currency risk, especially during periods of anticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is expected to negatively impact European companies' earnings, making currency fluctuations a key issue for the earnings season [1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the euro has appreciated nearly 13% against the dollar, while the British pound has risen about 8% [1] - Companies with over 25% of their revenue from North America may face significant impacts from currency fluctuations, especially those lacking effective hedging strategies [1][5] Group 2 - Analysts have generally lowered their expectations, predicting a decline in European corporate earnings, which could lead to further downward revisions if negative trends continue [7] - The Stoxx 600 index is expected to see a year-on-year decline in earnings per share of 3%, marking the largest drop in five quarters due to weak demand and a 3.5% increase in the euro trade-weighted index [9] Group 3 - Sectors most sensitive to currency fluctuations include healthcare, luxury goods, and technology, with companies like Argenx (84% North America exposure) and Fresenius Medical (66% North America exposure) being particularly vulnerable [4] - Companies with advanced hedging strategies tend to perform better, as seen with Brunello Cucinelli SpA, which reported double-digit growth without being affected by currency fluctuations [14]

汇率波动还波及其他领域。韩国美妆代购直播开播就喊出"汇率破7狂喜！雪花秀套装立减80！"的口号，后台订单量半小时内突破五千单；外贸企业会计小 周忙着调整报价单，给迈阿密客户的邮件里，新款庭院帐篷降价5%，并在末尾加上了感谢语；伦敦布伦特原油报价每桶下跌0.8美元，中东油轮纷纷改道驶 向青岛港，上海原油期货人民币结算量单日激增17%，沙特阿美高管连夜飞抵浦东；深圳宝安机场的货机塞满跨境电商包裹，货运经理老林催促工人："麻 利点！赶美联储下次会议前全发走！"；留学机构顾问的手机被打爆，波士顿大学的催款邮件躺在学生邮箱里，学费缴费单上的数字少了许多，陈女士握着 汇款凭证松了一口气："这汇率够孩子半年生活费了！" 银行柜员小陈一天办理了两百笔结汇业务，手指敲键盘敲到发麻；换汇大厅的电子屏红得刺眼，大 爷大妈们举着存折挤到柜台前，有人后悔上周换汇太早；外汇黄牛在柜台前直拍大腿："美元存货全砸手里了！" 中国银行7月12日下午3点挂出的人民币卖 出价为7.1686，这意味着换1万美元比上周少掏近200元人民币。 这场汇率风暴仍在继续，其影响将深远且复杂。 全球金融市场正经历一场剧烈震荡。7月12日下午，人民币兑美元汇率突 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights issues faced by consumers when canceling Tokyo Disneyland's VP (Vacation Package) during the free cancellation period, resulting in unexpected refund deductions [1][7] - The VP package includes various benefits such as park tickets, fast passes, and meal reservations, making it more convenient for families visiting the park [3][4] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border payment fees when booking international travel packages [8][10] Group 2 - The refund amount received by consumers can be lower than the original payment due to currency exchange rate changes during the refund process [8][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming whether payments can be made in local currency to avoid potential losses from exchange rate fluctuations [10][11] - Experts suggest that international theme parks should improve service efficiency and provide clearer warnings about exchange rate risks during cross-border transactions [11]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment significantly impacts Hong Kong's consumer stocks, with economic growth directly affecting residents' income levels and consumption capacity [1] - During economic expansion, increased income leads to higher consumer willingness and ability, creating a favorable market for consumer companies [1] - Conversely, economic downturns can shrink the consumer market, posing challenges for consumer stocks, necessitating close monitoring of macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth and inflation rates [1] Group 2: Industry Development Trends - The consumer industry is evolving due to social progress and technological advancements, with new consumption models and scenarios emerging [1] - E-commerce has transformed traditional retail, and companies that adapt to industry trends and adjust their strategies tend to perform better in the market [1] - Companies failing to align with these trends may face declining performance [1] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Company fundamentals are crucial, encompassing financial health indicators such as profitability, solvency, and operational efficiency [2] - A strong brand presence enhances market recognition, customer loyalty, and pricing power, contributing to a company's resilience and growth [2] - The capability and strategic vision of the management team are vital for seizing market opportunities and making sound decisions [2] Group 4: Market Valuation Levels - Market valuation levels are essential for investors considering Hong Kong consumer stocks, requiring accurate assessments through metrics like price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [2] - Overvalued stocks relative to fundamentals pose higher investment risks, while undervalued stocks may present potential investment opportunities [2] - Valuation analysis should consider industry characteristics and the company's development stage for comprehensive judgment [2] Group 5: Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Exchange rate fluctuations are unavoidable in investing in Hong Kong consumer stocks, affecting investment returns due to currency variations [3] - Companies with significant overseas operations or high reliance on imported materials may see their costs and profits impacted by exchange rate movements [3] - Investors should monitor exchange rate trends to assess potential impacts on target companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a complex balancing act regarding the recent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, with differing opinions among its decision-makers on the implications for monetary policy [1] Group 1: ECB Officials' Perspectives - ECB Vice President Guindos warns that if the euro exceeds the psychological level of 1.20 against the dollar, it could complicate the monetary policy environment [1] - Executive Board member Smets emphasizes the need to closely monitor the speed of euro appreciation, suggesting that rapid increases could impact inflation targets [1] - In contrast, the central bank governors of Portugal and Estonia express a more optimistic view, stating that the current exchange rate reflects improvements in the eurozone's economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The ongoing interest from international investors in euro-denominated assets is seen as beneficial for enhancing the euro's status as a reserve currency, which could positively impact long-term financial stability in the eurozone [1] - The divergence in policy stances highlights the ECB's multiple considerations in addressing exchange rate fluctuations, balancing short-term impacts on exports and inflation with long-term strategic benefits of euro internationalization [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The initial support level for the euro against the dollar is identified at 1.1717, with further support seen at the early 2025 high of 1.1631; a break below this could lead to deeper declines towards the 1.1500 area [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1830, followed by the 1.1900 region, which previously served as a peak from July to September 2021; a clear breakout above this area could target the psychological level of 1.2000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has significant implications for various groups, including students studying abroad, foreign trade practitioners, and investors monitoring global economic trends [1][4]. Exchange Rate Overview - As of the latest data, the central parity rate of 1 USD is 7.1506 RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 29 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a sustained appreciation trend for the RMB [3]. - The onshore market (CNY) shows a latest transaction price of 7.1692, while the offshore market (CNH) is at 7.1676, suggesting a consistent expectation of the RMB's value between domestic and foreign markets [3]. Impact of RMB Appreciation - For students and travelers, the appreciation means they can exchange less RMB for the same amount of USD, potentially saving money on expenses like tuition or travel [4]. - Conversely, for cross-border e-commerce and foreign trade businesses, the same USD revenue will convert to a lower amount in RMB, impacting profit margins over time [4]. Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation is attributed to several factors, including a weakening US dollar index, which provides room for other currencies to strengthen, and a stable recovery of the Chinese economy, enhancing confidence in RMB assets [5][6]. Strategies for Individuals and Businesses - Individuals are advised to consider staggered currency exchanges to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [7]. - Businesses engaged in foreign trade can negotiate with banks to lock in exchange rates, ensuring stable profits despite market volatility [8]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience small fluctuations, alternating between appreciation and depreciation, influenced by international economic conditions, US Federal Reserve policies, domestic economic fundamentals, and international capital flows [10].