证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250609 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，关注流动性宽 松对于短端利率下行的支撑 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 我们在延续上周观点的基础上，结合增量数据，思考如下： （1）Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 终值同步扩张，通胀压力增加，新增 2025 年 06 月 09 日 证券分析师 徐沐阳 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523060003 证券分析师 陈伯铭 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《建议关注核心科技题材转债》 2025-06-08 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20250602- 20250606）》 2025-06-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 央行提前预告买断式逆回购，重启买入国债讨论 ...

智通财经C50风向指数调查：6月流动性宽松延续 买卖国债能否重启市场预期分化 智通财经6月7日电，新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，6月存单到期量将大幅提升至4.2万亿 元，面对密集到期压力，市场普遍预期银行将加大同业存单发行力度，以对冲潜在流动性缺口，但对整 体资金面扰动有限，尤其在央行开展万亿元买断式逆回购操作背景下，市场机构预计流动性延续宽松。 在20家参与调查的市场机构中，19家预计6月流动性合理充裕，16家认为2025年货币政策维持宽松基 调。对于央行买卖国债能否重启，12家市场机构预计有望适时重启，8家认为还需根据债券市场供需等 综合研判。（智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are currently seen as having more opportunities than risks, with trading volume returning to 1.3 trillion [1] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to lead to a rise in core assets and a revaluation of the market [3] - Large funds are anticipated to drive the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points, with expectations of a quick rally in key sectors such as liquor, pharmaceuticals, and financial real estate [5] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to catch up with the significant rebound seen in the Hong Kong market, with predictions of increased trading volume potentially reaching 1.5 trillion or even 2 trillion [6] - The market is poised for a broad-based rally, with expectations that both large-cap and mid-cap stocks will rise, benefiting from the overall market sentiment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that while the micro-cap style has shown strong performance, its advantages may weaken over time, although there are still structural opportunities available [1] Policy Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines on May 16 to optimize the regulation of mergers and acquisitions, which encourages the integration of small and micro enterprises, providing additional funding sources and reducing liquidity pressure for micro-cap stocks [2] - The impact of the new restructuring guidelines on micro-cap stocks is expected to be marginally weaker compared to previous policies, but it still offers long-term support to the market [2] Market Environment - The current financial market in China is characterized by a relatively loose liquidity environment, supported by synchronized expansion in social financing and M2 growth, along with comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank [2] - This loose liquidity environment provides systematic support for the performance of high-elasticity styles, including micro-cap stocks [2] Predictive Indicators - The report indicates that the current low concentration of institutional holdings and the lower popularity of large-cap styles are favorable for micro-cap styles [2] - The decreasing PB ratio of large-cap to small-cap stocks since the second half of 2024 suggests a gradual shift of funds towards small-cap styles, enhancing the funding support and popularity for micro-cap styles [2] Funding Types - As of May 27, 2025, among the 400 stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index, 72 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 3% or more, and 19 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 5% or more, indicating a high level of participation from high-risk preference funds [3] - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in micro-cap stocks, although they remain cautious in their investment strategies due to risk considerations [3] Calendar Effect - Historical data shows a higher probability of price increases for micro-cap stocks in May, with specific months exhibiting distinct calendar effects [3] - The performance of micro-cap stocks is significantly influenced by the timing of earnings announcements due to their smaller size and initial growth stage [3] Crowding Risk - Currently, the micro-cap style has not triggered any crowding signals, indicating a lower risk of short-term pullbacks due to excessive crowding [3]

摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 近期微盘风格表现强势，截至2025/5/27，万得微盘股指数领跑市场，2025年5月单月涨幅9.31%，月均成交额277亿元，YTD收益率24.37%。本文对于微盘 风格强势的原因进行拆解，从宏观政策、市场环境、事件效应等多维度分析微盘风格占优背后因素。 近期微盘风格优势背后——六大因素分析 1. 政策利好：政策端释放科创小微企业活力。 5月16日中国证监会发布的《关于优化上市公司并购重组监管的指导意见》[1]鼓励企业优化整合，为部分微 盘股提供额外资金来源、降低流动性压力，同时激励市场发掘优质小微企业的成长性，推动风格行情。相较于"并购六条"[2]，作为配套政策的《重组办 法》对微盘股提振效应边际弱化，但仍通过完善制度框架为市场提供长期支撑。 2. 市场环境：流动性宽松有利高弹性风格。 中国金融市场目前呈现流动性较为宽松的格局，主要体现为社会融资规模与M2同比增速的同步扩张，叠加央 行全面降准的政策支持。这一环境也为微盘股风格等高弹性风格的表现提供了系统性支撑。 3. 预测指标：机构持仓较分散、大盘风格热度偏低利好微盘风格。 通过系统性的中长期宏观与市场指标测 ...

Group 1 - The insurance securities ETF (515630.SH) increased by 0.41%, while its associated index 800 Securities Insurance (399966.SZ) rose by 0.55% [1] - Major constituent stocks such as China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life saw increases of 1.58%, 2.27%, and 1.74% respectively [1] - CITIC Securities' latest research report indicates that the brokerage sector's valuation is expected to stabilize and rebound due to liquidity benefits from interest rate cuts, strong year-on-year growth in semi-annual reports, and the implementation of a package of financial policies [1] Group 2 - The brokerage sector's valuation has adjusted to a reasonable level, with positive catalysts from fundamentals, policies, and liquidity benefits, as well as merger and acquisition themes stimulating the sector's elasticity [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan's research highlights that value-style active equity funds have a structure more aligned with broad-based indices like CSI 300 and CSI 800, indicating a high overlap with the constituent stocks of the 800 Securities Insurance index [1] - Guotai Junan Futures emphasizes that the financial sector's performance is closely related to macroeconomic recovery expectations, and attention should be paid to the marginal impact of policies on the insurance securities industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [18]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, supported by strong performances in the automotive, battery, shipping, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors [3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 13.84 times and 36.88 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][17]. - The first quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.4%, indicating strong economic recovery momentum, with improvements in corporate profit growth and cash flow providing fundamental support for the market [3][17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On May 21, the A-share market opened flat and experienced slight upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3394 points. The market showed a general upward trend throughout the day, with significant performances in the automotive and battery sectors [2][7]. - The total trading volume for both markets reached 12,146 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][17]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with structural market conditions likely to continue. Policy support and a loose liquidity environment are anticipated to provide a bottom support for the market [3][17]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, battery, shipping, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors [3][17].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are outperforming in the current market, reflecting a "small-cap bull" trend driven by liquidity easing, policy support, and positive fundamental expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 Index has risen over 9% this year, leading the mainstream small and mid-cap indices [1]. - The performance of small-cap stocks is significantly influenced by liquidity conditions, with small-cap stocks showing higher sensitivity to liquidity compared to large-cap stocks [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - The central bank has indicated a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with expectations for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, which benefits small-cap stocks [3][9]. - The government is increasing support for "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" enterprises, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics, which are well-represented in the CSI 2000 Index [5][8]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities - The ongoing state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the potential of small-cap stocks through industry consolidation [8]. - In the early stages of economic recovery, small-cap stocks tend to exhibit faster earnings growth, benefiting from their agility in adjusting business strategies [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Trends - As of May, there is a noticeable return to small-cap growth styles, driven by continued liquidity easing and a recovery in market risk appetite [8][9]. - The CSI 2000 ETF has shown significant performance, with a net value growth rate of 24.24% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark [12].

新华财经北京5月12日电（王菁）债市周一（5月12日）延续弱势情绪，长债调整幅度更大，国债期货主 力全线收跌，银行间现券收益率上行2BPs左右；公开市场单日净投放430亿元，资金利率普遍延续回 落。 机构认为，宽货币集中落地，货政报告强调灵活施策，政策或仍有空间。降准降息叠加公开市场净投放 增加，引导资金利率中枢有所降低，流动性宽松格局或延续。政策利多兑现后交易逻辑或转向基本面， 长债收益率预计维持窄幅震荡。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货尾盘受重要会谈结果公告影响大幅下挫，30年期主力合约跌1.31%，10年期主力合约跌 0.46%，5年期主力合约跌0.2%，2年期主力合约跌0.08%。 银行间现券收益率普遍上行，长债弱势更明显。截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开05"收益率上行2BPs至 1.7175%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行2.6BPs至1.902%，5年期国债"25附息国债03"收益率上 行1BP至1.475%，5年期国开债"25国开03"收益率持平报1.5425%。 中证转债指数收盘涨0.6%，40只可转债涨幅超2%，红墙转债、豪美转债、福立转债、亿田转债、中旗 转债涨幅居前，分别涨10 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信传媒行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：防御行业走强 A 股震荡上行》 2025-05-07 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 沪指突破 3300 点》 2025-05-06 11793 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅整理》 2025-04-30 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周四（05 月 08 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 3359 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中通信设备、文化传媒、电池以及酿酒等行业表现较好；贵 金属、化肥、航运港口以及珠宝首饰等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周四震荡上扬，创业板成 分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周四 A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低开后震荡上 行，盘中沪指在 3359 点附近遭遇阻力 ...