周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，市场屏息以待即将于20:30公布的美国4月零售销售数据（俗称"恐怖数据"）。当前市场预期该数据月率仅增长0.3%，但多位经 济学家警告，受关税政策冲击、消费信心下滑及通胀黏性影响，实际数据可能不及预期，进而引发金融市场剧烈波动。 一、数据背景：关税冲击与消费疲软的双重阴影 关税政策的滞后效应显现 特朗普政府自3月起对进口商品加征的"对等关税"已逐步传导至终端消费市场。美国商务部数据显示，4月进口商品价格指数同比上涨3.2%，其中汽车、电子 产品等关税敏感品类涨幅超5%。尽管中美关税协议落地暂缓了部分压力，但美国对欧盟、日韩等贸易伙伴的关税谈判仍存变数，企业普遍推迟涨价以观望 政策走向，导致4月零售销售数据可能因需求抑制而表现疲软。 消费信心与支出能力双降 若数据疲软，美股科技股可能面临获利回吐压力，资金或从股市回流黄金等避险资产。全球最大黄金ETF（SPDR）持仓量已连续三日减少，但若数据爆 冷，可能触发空头回补，单日增仓或超10吨。 美联储4月消费者信心指数跌至52.2，为2023年11月以来最低水平，反映出高利率环境与债务压力对居民消费意愿的压制。此外，4月非农就业新增17.5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the reduction of tariffs, the damage to the U.S. retail industry has already occurred, and both retailers and consumers will continue to face challenges in regaining confidence [1] - The U.S. government has canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while China has reciprocated with a similar reduction, indicating significant progress in U.S.-China trade talks [1] - Even with tariff reductions, U.S. consumers will still experience price inflation on non-food imported goods, and tariffs on other manufacturing countries like Vietnam remain in place, suggesting that the trade war's escalation may have been avoided, but consumer impacts persist [1] Group 2 - The agreement is expected to encourage retailers to restart paused orders, with signs of trade recovery already emerging, which may reduce stock shortages during the holiday season [2] - Supply chain disruptions will take time to resolve, as evidenced by the example of toys that should have been produced earlier but may not arrive in time for the holiday season, leading to potential inventory issues for retailers [2] - Past experiences, such as the delays in receiving seasonal clothing, highlight the risk of retailers receiving unwanted inventory, which could force them to discount products and test their pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Consumers have been purchasing goods in anticipation of price increases, particularly in categories like automobiles, but this behavior may lead to reduced spending in other areas due to budget constraints [3] - Economic uncertainty is causing consumers to cut back on spending, with even affluent consumers feeling the pressure from inflation and rising interest rates, impacting their purchasing decisions [3] - The demand for luxury goods has weakened, as indicated by a decline in same-store sales for companies like Sweetgreen Inc., suggesting that consumer confidence is fragile and recovery may take time [3]

就业市场同样承压，招聘机构调查显示企业正搁置投资计划并缩减招聘规模。毕马威会计师事务所 与招聘和就业联合会（REC）联合调查显示，3月招聘活动持续萎缩，雇主普遍提及"经济不确定性、预 算紧缩及客户活动减少"等因素。REC称："固定岗位招聘量已连续30个月下降，缩减速度与2月基本持 平。" 毕马威高级合伙人乔恩·霍尔特指出："当前全球不确定性达到峰值，企业既要应对市场波动，又要 消化用工成本上升。最新数据印证经济现实持续拖累劳动力市场。" （原标题：英国零售业担忧特朗普关税影响导致商业街客流下滑） 《卫报》4月11日消息，最新数据显示，英国商业街3月客流量同比下降5%，延续了2月的颓势。零 售商警告称，若特朗普关税战引发的经济阴云打击消费者信心，情况可能进一步恶化。 自1月促销季短暂复苏后，通胀回升与家庭收入压力持续影响消费。郊区购物中心受创最重，客流 量下降5.8%，传统商业街和零售园区客流量分别减少4%和1.2%，销售额同步下滑。 英国零售商协会指出，美国对进口商品加征关税的直接影响尚难量化，但可能抑制消费者购买意 愿，尤其是高价商品。该机构首席执行官海伦·狄金森表示："关税引发的全球不确定性及潜在经济放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing the consumer environment as a key driver for economic growth, highlighting the implementation of a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to address consumer pain points and enhance consumer rights protection [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan and Objectives - The action plan aims to improve quality standards, credit constraints, comprehensive governance, and consumer rights protection to resolve prominent consumer issues [1]. - In 2024, final consumption expenditure is projected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.2 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Current challenges include low quality of consumer supply, lack of market order, and insufficient protection of consumer rights, which negatively impact consumer experience and confidence [1][2]. - The action plan outlines five major initiatives: improving consumer supply quality, optimizing consumer order, enhancing consumer rights protection, promoting collaborative governance, and leading consumer environment initiatives [2]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - Protecting consumer rights is a collective responsibility involving government departments, judicial bodies, businesses, social organizations, media, and consumers [2]. - Effective collaboration among all stakeholders is essential for the successful implementation of consumer rights protection measures [2]. Group 4: Long-term Commitment - Optimizing the consumer environment is a long-term endeavor that requires a systematic approach, starting from local standards and gradually expanding to broader areas [3]. - Continuous improvement of the consumer environment is necessary to boost consumer confidence and stimulate economic vitality [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in China's e-commerce landscape, particularly the potential cancellation of the "return-only refund" policy, which has been a crucial consumer protection mechanism [2][3][4]. Group 1: E-commerce Policy Changes - Major e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, Taobao, Douyin, Kuaishou, and JD.com are set to eliminate the "return-only refund" option, leaving refund decisions to individual merchants [3][4]. - The absence of public announcements from these platforms regarding the cancellation of the policy suggests a covert implementation of this change [4]. Group 2: Consumer Complaints and Issues - In 2024, consumer complaint organizations in China received 1.76 million complaints, a 32.62% increase from the previous year, with after-sales service issues accounting for 29.67% of complaints [6][7]. - Issues related to product quality and false advertising also contribute significantly to consumer grievances, indicating a persistent problem in the e-commerce sector [6][8]. Group 3: Implications for Consumer Rights - The removal of the "return-only refund" policy raises concerns about how consumers will protect their rights when faced with unsatisfactory products [29][30]. - The article highlights the long and arduous process consumers face when seeking refunds, often leading to frustration and abandonment of claims [10][11]. Group 4: Comparison with International Practices - In contrast, Amazon has expanded its "returnless refund" policy, which has been shown to increase brand trust by 20% and boost loyalty consumer spending by 1.7 times compared to regular consumers [26][27]. - The article suggests that U.S. retailers are not deterred by refund abuse ("sheep shearing") because they prioritize long-term consumer trust and satisfaction [27]. Group 5: Future of Consumer Protection - The article questions the effectiveness of current consumer protection mechanisms in China, suggesting that without the "return-only refund" policy, consumers may struggle to assert their rights [29][30]. - The ongoing evolution of consumer rights in China reflects a broader struggle between consumer protection and merchant interests, with potential implications for overall market trust and consumer spending [31][33].

Group 1 - In the first quarter, consumer willingness to purchase cars, homes, and durable goods in Shanghai significantly increased, indicating a positive shift in consumer sentiment [1][7] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai rose by 10.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong market performance [1][6] - The consumer confidence index in Shanghai reached 111.4 points, a month-on-month increase of 10.5 points and a year-on-year increase of 6.5 points, showing a recovery in consumer sentiment [7][8] Group 2 - NIO delivered its 100,000th production vehicle in Shanghai, marking a significant milestone for the company [3][4] - SAIC Motor sold 945,000 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with new energy vehicle sales up nearly 30% [5] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory delivered over 172,000 vehicles in the first quarter, with domestic sales reaching 137,200 units, the highest first-quarter figure since 2022 [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai International Auto Show, which began on April 23, 2025, is expected to further stimulate automotive consumption with over 100 new models being launched [1][11] - The Shanghai government has expanded its vehicle replacement subsidy policy to include out-of-province old cars, enhancing consumer enthusiasm for vehicle upgrades [9][10] - The automotive market in Shanghai is entering a positive cycle of "policy dividend release - market feedback acceleration," with expectations for sustained growth momentum in the second quarter [1][11]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's 2024 financial report indicates continued growth, but the company has set a surprising revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, marking the first single-digit growth expectation in eight years and the second lowest since its listing [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth Expectations - The revenue growth target for 2025 is a significant adjustment from the previous range of 10.5% to 15% set since 2017, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [1]. - The decline in wholesale prices of Moutai has put the long-standing "Moutai faith" under unprecedented pressure, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - Changes in consumer confidence have directly impacted Moutai, as it is highly sensitive to economic conditions, with reduced demand for high-end consumption, business events, and gifting [1][2]. - The luxury and high-end consumption sectors are experiencing a shift from impulsive buying to more cautious decision-making, affecting Moutai's sales [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Strategy - Moutai has historically maintained a "tight balance" in the market through strict control of production and a complex distribution system, but recent increases in direct sales and supply have led to price declines amid weak demand [2][4]. - The financial attributes associated with Moutai have diminished, as the expectation of continuous price increases has proven unsustainable, leading to a reassessment of its value [2][4]. Group 4: Brand Strategy and Future Challenges - Moutai is attempting to diversify its product offerings by introducing cross-border products like ice cream and chocolate, targeting younger consumers, though the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [4]. - The company faces significant challenges from changing consumer preferences, generational shifts, and increased competition within the industry [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]