Group 1 - The global stock market has generally risen this year, with major markets like the US, Japan, and Germany reaching historical highs, and the A-share Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by the AI technology revolution and sustained monetary easing from central banks [1][3] - As the AI technology trend matures, concerns about market volatility and high valuations are increasing among investors, prompting discussions on asset allocation strategies [1][3] - The article introduces a series focused on global asset allocation strategies in the context of the AI wave, starting with a broad overview of the current investment environment [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of offensive assets, US tech stocks are highlighted as suitable investments, despite the market being at a relatively high valuation level, as corporate earnings growth remains strong, with 63% of companies exceeding earnings expectations in Q3 [3][4] - The Nasdaq index shows a year-on-year earnings growth rate of 25.4%, indicating that sustained earnings growth may help mitigate high valuations over time [3][4] - The article suggests maintaining a focus on large-cap tech stocks while being mindful of market volatility and exploring tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [3][4] Group 3 - For defensive assets, US Treasury bonds and hedging strategies are recommended, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have contributed to a decline in bond yields [4][5] - Various types of US bonds have performed well this year, with the US Aggregate Bond Index up 6.71% and the US Treasury Index up 5.97% year-to-date, indicating strong performance amid a loosening monetary policy [4][5] - The article emphasizes the potential of US Treasuries as a tool to hedge against stock market volatility, particularly in a controlled inflation environment with rising economic pressures [4][5] Group 4 - Hedging strategies are discussed as a means to offset systemic risks through dual trading, allowing investors to capture trading opportunities while mitigating market risks [5][6] - These strategies can provide independent performance from both equity and bond markets, offering attractive absolute return potential [5][6] - Future articles in the series will delve deeper into the configuration of US tech stocks and the performance characteristics of hedging strategies [5][6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, marking a significant policy shift since 2019 [1][4] - Current economic indicators show a combination of high inflation and weakening employment, suggesting that this rate cut cycle may be more abrupt and intense than in 2019 [4] Group 1: Economic Signals - Powell's speech highlighted three key signals: the ongoing deterioration of the U.S. labor market, the economic impact of a potential government shutdown, and the possibility of halting balance sheet reduction [1] - The core PCE price index stands at 3.7%, significantly higher than the 1.6% recorded in 2019, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2: Impact on Housing and Savings - Historical data suggests that a Fed rate cut typically leads to a decrease in domestic LPR rates within 1-2 quarters, potentially lowering mortgage rates by 0.15%-0.3%, which could reduce monthly payments by 200-400 CNY for a 1 million CNY 30-year loan [5] - Following the initiation of a rate cut cycle, domestic bank deposit rates are expected to decline, with three-year large-denomination time deposits likely falling below 2.5% [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Based on past experiences, the S&P 500 index has historically risen by 12% within three months following the first rate cut, with potential benefits for A-share consumer and gold sectors [8] - In the 2019 rate cut cycle, gold prices increased by 23%, while the U.S. stock market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, suggesting that asset price volatility may be more pronounced in the current environment [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to allocate 40%-50% of assets to low-risk instruments such as government bonds, with a current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 2.8% [11] - Investors should consider a 1-3 month window for potential rebounds in U.S. tech stocks post-Fed policy shift, while implementing strict stop-loss measures [12] Group 5: Currency and Risk Management - The U.S. dollar index may fall below the 105 mark, prompting investors holding dollar-denominated assets to consider gradual currency conversion [13] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, although monitoring the China-U.S. interest rate differential remains crucial [13] Group 6: Conclusion - The rate cut cycle represents a process of cash devaluation and asset revaluation, with conservative investors advised to increase bond allocations to over 50% [14] - Maintaining liquidity is essential for seizing future opportunities, especially with another potential 50 basis point cut anticipated in December [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global long-term government bonds are experiencing significant sell-offs, with rising yields across countries like Japan, Germany, the UK, and France, as concerns over fiscal deficits replace central bank policies as the main focus of the market [1][10]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield saw its largest increase in two months, while the German 30-year bond yield approached a 14-year high [1]. - The U.S. 30-year bond yield reached a one-month high of 4.98% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Concerns over increased government debt, oversupply of bonds, and persistent inflation are driving market anxiety, particularly in light of Japan's upcoming elections and Trump's tariff threats [1][9]. - The market anticipates that election outcomes may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus in Japan, contributing to rising long-term yields [1][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - Japan's ruling party is proposing cash subsidies while the opposition plans tax cuts, reflecting heightened budgetary risks as the July 20 Senate elections approach [6]. - Despite the Japanese Finance Ministry's efforts to reduce long-term bond issuance, borrowing costs continue to rise, indicating a demand gap as major insurance companies avoid ultra-long bonds [6]. Group 4: Global Impact of Japanese Bond Yields - BCA Research warns that changes in Japanese bond yields, as a significant source of global liquidity, could pose a major threat to U.S. tech stocks [2][13]. - The correlation between U.S. tech stock valuations and Japanese government bond yields suggests that a rise in Japanese yields could tighten global liquidity, impacting tech stock valuations reliant on low-cost funding [13].

Core Viewpoint - In May, A-shares experienced a rebound after tariff shocks, with major indices showing positive growth, while significant developments occurred in the public and private fund sectors, including increased holdings in Chinese assets by major private equity firms and new regulations for public funds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.32% [2]. - Among 5,370 stocks excluding new listings, 3,847 stocks rose, 32 remained flat, and 1,491 declined, indicating a 72% increase in the number of rising stocks [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Holdings - High-profile private equity firms such as Gao Yi, Jing Lin, and Gao Ling increased their positions in Chinese assets while reducing their holdings in U.S. tech stocks [3][4]. - Gao Yi's overseas fund held 22 U.S. stocks valued at $765 million, with significant increases in holdings of Chinese companies like Huazhu Group and Boss Zhipin [4]. - Jing Lin's overseas fund had 8 out of its top 10 holdings in Chinese stocks, reflecting a strong commitment to Chinese assets [4]. Group 3: Performance of Individual Funds - Dan Bin's funds saw a significant rebound in performance due to the recovery of U.S. tech stocks, with a reported average return of ***% over the past month [6]. - Dan Bin maintained a focus on major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, while also utilizing leveraged ETFs to enhance returns [9][10]. Group 4: Insurance Capital Involvement - Insurance companies are increasingly establishing private equity funds to invest in the stock market, with notable initiatives from China Life and Xinhua Insurance, which set up a 200 billion yuan fund [14][15]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced plans to expand the trial of long-term investment by insurance funds, aiming to inject more capital into the market [14]. Group 5: Public Fund Developments - The public fund industry reached a total scale of 33.12 trillion yuan by the end of April 2025, marking a record high [23]. - New regulations were introduced to link fund manager compensation to fund performance, promoting a shift from focusing solely on scale to prioritizing returns [17][20]. Group 6: AI Quantitative Funds - The number of quantitative private equity firms focusing on AI has increased, with 15 out of 39 billion-yuan quantitative firms making strides in AI investment [11][12]. - Notable firms like Huanfang Quantitative have achieved significant returns, leading the performance rankings among AI-focused private equity funds [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Zhongtai Tianze Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF), which has achieved a net value growth rate of 7.40% since its establishment on March 21, 2023, outperforming its benchmark by 3.21% [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The fund manager, Tang Jun, emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over merely selecting outstanding fund managers, focusing on forming allocation views first and then selecting the best funds to implement those views [2] - Tang Jun utilizes a macro analysis framework for risk budgeting, similar to Bridgewater's risk parity model, but with a personalized approach that allows for differentiated risk allocation based on his views [3][5] - The strategic asset allocation is based on a "monetary-credit" analysis framework, which influences long-term configuration, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities based on market sentiment and funding conditions [5][9] Group 2: Return Streams and Risk Assessment - The concept of "return streams" is highlighted, where having 15-20 independent return streams can significantly reduce risk without compromising expected returns [6] - The manager assesses the correlation of asset classes with existing portfolios for risk evaluation, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of asset classes [6] - The selection of funds involves a rigorous style decomposition process to evaluate the fund's alpha performance after removing style beta influences [7] Group 3: Gold and Market Outlook - Gold is maintained as a strategic core holding due to its recognition as a global currency amidst concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [8] - The article outlines potential strategies based on macroeconomic drivers, such as domestic credit expansion and overseas dollar liquidity, which will influence future asset allocation decisions [9] - The performance of US tech stocks, particularly in relation to AI technology trends, is identified as a key factor for future market movements [9]

周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，市场屏息以待即将于20:30公布的美国4月零售销售数据（俗称"恐怖数据"）。当前市场预期该数据月率仅增长0.3%，但多位经 济学家警告，受关税政策冲击、消费信心下滑及通胀黏性影响，实际数据可能不及预期，进而引发金融市场剧烈波动。 一、数据背景：关税冲击与消费疲软的双重阴影 关税政策的滞后效应显现 特朗普政府自3月起对进口商品加征的"对等关税"已逐步传导至终端消费市场。美国商务部数据显示，4月进口商品价格指数同比上涨3.2%，其中汽车、电子 产品等关税敏感品类涨幅超5%。尽管中美关税协议落地暂缓了部分压力，但美国对欧盟、日韩等贸易伙伴的关税谈判仍存变数，企业普遍推迟涨价以观望 政策走向，导致4月零售销售数据可能因需求抑制而表现疲软。 消费信心与支出能力双降 若数据疲软，美股科技股可能面临获利回吐压力，资金或从股市回流黄金等避险资产。全球最大黄金ETF（SPDR）持仓量已连续三日减少，但若数据爆 冷，可能触发空头回补，单日增仓或超10吨。 美联储4月消费者信心指数跌至52.2，为2023年11月以来最低水平，反映出高利率环境与债务压力对居民消费意愿的压制。此外，4月非农就业新增17.5 ...