一夜过后，全球市场又陷入危险之中： - 美股科技股抛售加剧，纳斯达克100指数遭遇自去年10月以来最严重的两日暴跌。并跌破100日移动均 线，一些技术分析师认为，这一水平预示着未来可能出现更多下跌。 - 比特币也延续下跌势头，向70000美元整数水平试探。 - 与此同时，黄金回吐当日大部分涨幅，仅微幅上涨。 - 美元指数则转而上涨，收复了1月23日以来的跌幅。 这一轮下跌有两个明显特点： 来源：华尔街情报圈 第二，美元出现明显上涨，过去"美元下跌，万物上涨"的旧公式失效了。 美元不是因为"美国多好"才涨的，而是资金在撤、在避险，这对科技股、比特币、高估值资产是天然压 制。 更为关键的是，昨晚（北京时间00:39）美国财长贝森特说了一句"我们始终支持强势美元政策"。这句 话，本质是"给市场画了一条红线"。等于在告诉市场，不要指望通过美元贬值来缓解金融压力，美元不 再承担"稳定资产价格"的功能。 但这并非是一轮危机，正如我们今天在《环球市场策略》中所言： 如果这是系统性危机债市会暴动，收益率会大涨，但这一幕并没有发生，2年期美债收益率 还微跌。说明这并非危机，仅仅是市场层面的资产重新定价。 我们将这轮行情的"危险 ...

近期A股市场震荡上行，政策预期升温，春季攻势或正徐徐展开。那么，放眼海外市场，我们该如何布 局？对此，长城基金国际业务部副总经理曲少杰在其公司近日举办的2026年度策略会上表示，哑铃策略 或是更优解。 三是红利资产的股价表现与利率走势整体呈负相关性，社会利率水平下行，有利于红利股票行情； 四是相较于A股，港股的红利资产估值相对较低，且股息率水平更高。 免责声明：本通讯所载信息来源于本公司认为可靠的渠道和研究员个人判断，但本公司不对其准确性或 完整性提供直接或隐含的声明或保证。此通讯并非对相关证券或市场的完整表述或概括，任何所表达的 意见可能会更改且不另外通知。此通讯不应被接收者作为对其独立判断的替代或投资决策依据。本公司 或本公司的相关机构、雇员或代理人不对任何人使用此全部或部分内容的行为或由此而引致的任何损失 承担任何责任。未经长城基金管理有限公司事先书面许可，任何人不得将此报告或其任何部分以任何形 式进行派发、复制、转载或发布，且不得对本通讯进行任何有悖原意的删节或修改。基金管理人提醒， 每个公民都有举报洗钱犯罪的义务和权利。每个公民都应严格遵守反洗钱的相关法律、法规。基金有风 险，投资需谨慎。 MACD ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike on global capital markets, particularly focusing on the implications for risk assets and the "yen carry trade" [4][7]. Group 1: Impact of Japan's Interest Rate Hike - Japan is expected to raise its policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, marking a 25 basis point increase, which has led to increased market anxiety and a decline in global risk assets [4][7]. - The long-standing low-interest environment in Japan has made the yen a key source of low-cost funding for global investments, particularly in high-risk assets like U.S. tech stocks and cryptocurrencies [8][9]. - An increase in borrowing costs for yen will pressure highly leveraged positions, potentially leading to forced deleveraging and selling of risk assets, starting with U.S. Treasuries and high-leverage derivatives [10][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The likelihood of a market shock similar to July 2024 is considered low, as the current rate hike is largely anticipated by the market [15]. - If the Bank of Japan signals a more hawkish stance or raises rates by 50 basis points, it could exert short-term pressure on risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, while U.S. Treasury yields may rise initially [15][16]. - The medium to long-term outlook for assets like U.S. stocks and A-shares will depend on liquidity conditions and economic fundamentals, with potential risks of stagflation in the U.S. economy [16].

Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal divisions among FOMC members increased, with 3 out of 12 voting against the decision, marking the first dissent since 2019 [2] - The Fed has become more optimistic about the U.S. economy and inflation, revising GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 to 2028 and lowering unemployment rate predictions for 2027, while also reducing PCE and core PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The Fed announced a technical expansion of its balance sheet, starting in December with the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities, which is expected to remain high for several months before significantly reducing [2] - While the guidance for future rate cuts remains consistent with September's meeting, the language used is more cautious, indicating that future cuts will have a higher threshold [2] Interest Rate Outlook - It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to lower rates in 2026, influenced by structural changes in the labor market and political factors, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation [3] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may also impact the pace of rate cuts, with potential candidates advocating for more aggressive monetary easing [3] Bond Market and Stock Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline initially in 2026, reaching a low of around 3.5%-3.8% mid-year, before rising again as economic fundamentals improve [4] - The stock market, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates such as technology, real estate, and small-cap stocks, is expected to remain supported despite concerns over an AI bubble, which is viewed as a temporary structural issue [4] Asset Allocation Strategies - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy has yielded a return of 4.25% this year, with a slight increase in November [10] - Recent performance of major asset classes shows gold and commodity indices rising, while equity assets experienced slight pullbacks, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, indicating that the hawkish statements from Fed Chair Powell may no longer hold significant weight as he approaches a "lame duck" status [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal where bonds and stocks weaken due to profit-taking, while the dollar strengthens, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [2][9]. - Conversely, if the market ignores the Fed's hawkish signals and continues to rally, it may be driven by the "Hassett trade," which anticipates a more accommodative policy under the new Fed chair, leading to a steepening yield curve and a renewed economic recovery outlook [9][10]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Implications - There is a potential underestimation of the degree of dovish coordination among the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House to achieve the "3-3-3 goal" (3% economic growth, 3% short-term yields, and 10-year Treasury yields in the 3% range) through unconventional policy tools [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is under pressure to ensure that the new Fed chair can quickly implement rate cuts, as his own position is closely tied to the Fed's policy direction [10][11]. Group 3: Leadership Changes and Future Outlook - Kevin Hassett is seen as a strong candidate for the new Fed chair, with expectations that he will advocate for lower rates to benefit consumers [11][12]. - The potential for significant reforms at the Fed is highlighted, with calls for changes in the governance structure and the qualifications of regional Fed bank presidents [12].

Group 1 - The global stock market has generally risen this year, with major markets like the US, Japan, and Germany reaching historical highs, and the A-share Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, driven by the AI technology revolution and sustained monetary easing from central banks [1][3] - As the AI technology trend matures, concerns about market volatility and high valuations are increasing among investors, prompting discussions on asset allocation strategies [1][3] - The article introduces a series focused on global asset allocation strategies in the context of the AI wave, starting with a broad overview of the current investment environment [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of offensive assets, US tech stocks are highlighted as suitable investments, despite the market being at a relatively high valuation level, as corporate earnings growth remains strong, with 63% of companies exceeding earnings expectations in Q3 [3][4] - The Nasdaq index shows a year-on-year earnings growth rate of 25.4%, indicating that sustained earnings growth may help mitigate high valuations over time [3][4] - The article suggests maintaining a focus on large-cap tech stocks while being mindful of market volatility and exploring tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [3][4] Group 3 - For defensive assets, US Treasury bonds and hedging strategies are recommended, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have contributed to a decline in bond yields [4][5] - Various types of US bonds have performed well this year, with the US Aggregate Bond Index up 6.71% and the US Treasury Index up 5.97% year-to-date, indicating strong performance amid a loosening monetary policy [4][5] - The article emphasizes the potential of US Treasuries as a tool to hedge against stock market volatility, particularly in a controlled inflation environment with rising economic pressures [4][5] Group 4 - Hedging strategies are discussed as a means to offset systemic risks through dual trading, allowing investors to capture trading opportunities while mitigating market risks [5][6] - These strategies can provide independent performance from both equity and bond markets, offering attractive absolute return potential [5][6] - Future articles in the series will delve deeper into the configuration of US tech stocks and the performance characteristics of hedging strategies [5][6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, marking a significant policy shift since 2019 [1][4] - Current economic indicators show a combination of high inflation and weakening employment, suggesting that this rate cut cycle may be more abrupt and intense than in 2019 [4] Group 1: Economic Signals - Powell's speech highlighted three key signals: the ongoing deterioration of the U.S. labor market, the economic impact of a potential government shutdown, and the possibility of halting balance sheet reduction [1] - The core PCE price index stands at 3.7%, significantly higher than the 1.6% recorded in 2019, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2: Impact on Housing and Savings - Historical data suggests that a Fed rate cut typically leads to a decrease in domestic LPR rates within 1-2 quarters, potentially lowering mortgage rates by 0.15%-0.3%, which could reduce monthly payments by 200-400 CNY for a 1 million CNY 30-year loan [5] - Following the initiation of a rate cut cycle, domestic bank deposit rates are expected to decline, with three-year large-denomination time deposits likely falling below 2.5% [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Based on past experiences, the S&P 500 index has historically risen by 12% within three months following the first rate cut, with potential benefits for A-share consumer and gold sectors [8] - In the 2019 rate cut cycle, gold prices increased by 23%, while the U.S. stock market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, suggesting that asset price volatility may be more pronounced in the current environment [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to allocate 40%-50% of assets to low-risk instruments such as government bonds, with a current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 2.8% [11] - Investors should consider a 1-3 month window for potential rebounds in U.S. tech stocks post-Fed policy shift, while implementing strict stop-loss measures [12] Group 5: Currency and Risk Management - The U.S. dollar index may fall below the 105 mark, prompting investors holding dollar-denominated assets to consider gradual currency conversion [13] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, although monitoring the China-U.S. interest rate differential remains crucial [13] Group 6: Conclusion - The rate cut cycle represents a process of cash devaluation and asset revaluation, with conservative investors advised to increase bond allocations to over 50% [14] - Maintaining liquidity is essential for seizing future opportunities, especially with another potential 50 basis point cut anticipated in December [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global long-term government bonds are experiencing significant sell-offs, with rising yields across countries like Japan, Germany, the UK, and France, as concerns over fiscal deficits replace central bank policies as the main focus of the market [1][10]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose by 2.5 basis points to 1.595%, the highest level since 2008 [1]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield saw its largest increase in two months, while the German 30-year bond yield approached a 14-year high [1]. - The U.S. 30-year bond yield reached a one-month high of 4.98% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Concerns over increased government debt, oversupply of bonds, and persistent inflation are driving market anxiety, particularly in light of Japan's upcoming elections and Trump's tariff threats [1][9]. - The market anticipates that election outcomes may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus in Japan, contributing to rising long-term yields [1][6]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - Japan's ruling party is proposing cash subsidies while the opposition plans tax cuts, reflecting heightened budgetary risks as the July 20 Senate elections approach [6]. - Despite the Japanese Finance Ministry's efforts to reduce long-term bond issuance, borrowing costs continue to rise, indicating a demand gap as major insurance companies avoid ultra-long bonds [6]. Group 4: Global Impact of Japanese Bond Yields - BCA Research warns that changes in Japanese bond yields, as a significant source of global liquidity, could pose a major threat to U.S. tech stocks [2][13]. - The correlation between U.S. tech stock valuations and Japanese government bond yields suggests that a rise in Japanese yields could tighten global liquidity, impacting tech stock valuations reliant on low-cost funding [13].

Core Viewpoint - In May, A-shares experienced a rebound after tariff shocks, with major indices showing positive growth, while significant developments occurred in the public and private fund sectors, including increased holdings in Chinese assets by major private equity firms and new regulations for public funds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.32% [2]. - Among 5,370 stocks excluding new listings, 3,847 stocks rose, 32 remained flat, and 1,491 declined, indicating a 72% increase in the number of rising stocks [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Holdings - High-profile private equity firms such as Gao Yi, Jing Lin, and Gao Ling increased their positions in Chinese assets while reducing their holdings in U.S. tech stocks [3][4]. - Gao Yi's overseas fund held 22 U.S. stocks valued at $765 million, with significant increases in holdings of Chinese companies like Huazhu Group and Boss Zhipin [4]. - Jing Lin's overseas fund had 8 out of its top 10 holdings in Chinese stocks, reflecting a strong commitment to Chinese assets [4]. Group 3: Performance of Individual Funds - Dan Bin's funds saw a significant rebound in performance due to the recovery of U.S. tech stocks, with a reported average return of ***% over the past month [6]. - Dan Bin maintained a focus on major tech stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, while also utilizing leveraged ETFs to enhance returns [9][10]. Group 4: Insurance Capital Involvement - Insurance companies are increasingly establishing private equity funds to invest in the stock market, with notable initiatives from China Life and Xinhua Insurance, which set up a 200 billion yuan fund [14][15]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced plans to expand the trial of long-term investment by insurance funds, aiming to inject more capital into the market [14]. Group 5: Public Fund Developments - The public fund industry reached a total scale of 33.12 trillion yuan by the end of April 2025, marking a record high [23]. - New regulations were introduced to link fund manager compensation to fund performance, promoting a shift from focusing solely on scale to prioritizing returns [17][20]. Group 6: AI Quantitative Funds - The number of quantitative private equity firms focusing on AI has increased, with 15 out of 39 billion-yuan quantitative firms making strides in AI investment [11][12]. - Notable firms like Huanfang Quantitative have achieved significant returns, leading the performance rankings among AI-focused private equity funds [12][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Zhongtai Tianze Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF), which has achieved a net value growth rate of 7.40% since its establishment on March 21, 2023, outperforming its benchmark by 3.21% [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The fund manager, Tang Jun, emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over merely selecting outstanding fund managers, focusing on forming allocation views first and then selecting the best funds to implement those views [2] - Tang Jun utilizes a macro analysis framework for risk budgeting, similar to Bridgewater's risk parity model, but with a personalized approach that allows for differentiated risk allocation based on his views [3][5] - The strategic asset allocation is based on a "monetary-credit" analysis framework, which influences long-term configuration, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities based on market sentiment and funding conditions [5][9] Group 2: Return Streams and Risk Assessment - The concept of "return streams" is highlighted, where having 15-20 independent return streams can significantly reduce risk without compromising expected returns [6] - The manager assesses the correlation of asset classes with existing portfolios for risk evaluation, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of asset classes [6] - The selection of funds involves a rigorous style decomposition process to evaluate the fund's alpha performance after removing style beta influences [7] Group 3: Gold and Market Outlook - Gold is maintained as a strategic core holding due to its recognition as a global currency amidst concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [8] - The article outlines potential strategies based on macroeconomic drivers, such as domestic credit expansion and overseas dollar liquidity, which will influence future asset allocation decisions [9] - The performance of US tech stocks, particularly in relation to AI technology trends, is identified as a key factor for future market movements [9]