【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 31 日，独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 0.69%至 91.6 万 吨，而钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.28%至 643.99 万吨，港口焦炭库存小降至 243.09 万 吨，焦炭综合库存微增 0.04 万吨至 978.68 万吨，同比增幅缩窄至 2.93%。 消息方面，7 号陕西省榆林市政府在相关会议上通报称，因 2024 一 2025 年 电煤保供落实不到位，核增产能的 52 处煤矿中，有 26 处煤矿被调出保供名单并 核减产能 1900 万吨。央行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。美联储理事米兰表示，美联储 2026 年需要降息超过一个百分点，并认为当前的货币政策正在限制经济增长。 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量略有回升、按需补库，对短期需求有所提振。宏观方面， 国内央行和美联储降息预期极大提振市场 ...

Market Overview - On January 7, U.S. stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 466 points, a decline of 0.94%, closing at 48,996.08 points [4] - The market initially showed optimism with a high opening but faced a sharp decline towards the end of the trading session, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from anticipation of interest rate cuts to concerns over tightening policies [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026, with officials indicating that the current policy is close to "neutral" and that the space for rate cuts is limited [4] - Key economic indicators, including a slower pace of inflation decline and a strong labor market, have contributed to the Fed's cautious stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [4] Chinese Assets Performance - In contrast to the U.S. market, Chinese assets showed strong performance on January 7, with several Chinese concept stocks experiencing significant gains, including a 70.83% increase in Zhongchi Chefu and a 28.53% rise in 3ENetwork Technology [5] - The Hong Kong ADR index also saw a positive trend, closing at 23,246 points, up 174.04 points, with major stocks like Tencent and HSBC contributing to the upward movement [5]

美元指数升至四周高位附近，徘徊于98.74。美元指数的走强给以美元计价的白银带来了压力。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于17.54一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报17.60元/克，上 涨1.52%，最高触及17.74元/克，最低下探17.34元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格在早盘触及到高点之后持续震荡，一小时布林带收缩，表明上涨力度减弱，开口 向下倾斜，警惕回调风险，DMI显示处于交界处，目前空头占据上风，纸白银走势下方关注17.00-17.30 支撑，上方关注17.50-18.00阻力。 美元的强势，一方面源于市场在关键数据发布前的仓位调整，另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场数据显示 出降温迹象(如职位空缺降幅超预期、ADP就业数据不及预期)，但ISM服务业活动的意外回升，又给市 场带来了不确定性，使得美元并未因降息预期而单边下跌。 此外，三菱日联银行的分析师在报告中指出，由于美联储的降息幅度可能超过目前的市场定价，美元今 年将面临进一步下跌。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，自4月以来，每月新增就业人数可能被高估了6万人。 分析师称， ...

Group 1: Core Insights on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is experiencing significant market attention, with a recent drop to 4.01%, and a notable increase in options trading volume betting on a further decline below 4% [1][3][5] - The yield's recent movements reflect a shift from an upward trend to a steady decline, influenced by economic data and geopolitical events [3][4] - The trading volume for the 10-year Treasury on January 8 reached $280 billion, with a notable increase in overseas investor participation, indicating rising demand for U.S. Treasuries [4][6] Group 2: Options Market Analysis - The options market shows a strong bet on the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4%, with significant trading volumes in call options [5][6] - The implied volatility of these options has risen to 12%, indicating increased market expectations for short-term yield fluctuations [6] - The probability of the yield falling below 4% by January 25 has increased to 65%, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and rising unemployment rates [6][12] Group 3: Yield Curve and Economic Outlook - The yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has narrowed, suggesting reduced recession fears [7][8] - This narrowing is attributed to expectations of future Fed rate cuts and stronger-than-expected GDP growth, which has slightly improved long-term economic growth forecasts [8][12] - The recent movements in the yield curve indicate a market reassessment of recession risks, potentially impacting Treasury trading strategies [7][8] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a critical factor influencing the 10-year Treasury yield, with recent comments from officials suggesting a cautious approach to future rate changes [9][10] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have shifted, with a 50% probability of one cut and a 30% probability of two cuts, reflecting a cooling of previous expectations [11][12] - Divergence in Fed officials' views on policy direction has led to cautious trading behavior in the Treasury market, resulting in narrower yield fluctuations [13] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of 10-year Treasuries is decreasing, with a planned issuance of $60 billion in January, down from $70 billion in December, alleviating supply pressure [16][17] - Demand for Treasuries is increasing, particularly from overseas investors, with significant increases in holdings from China and Japan [16][17] - The improved supply-demand dynamics are contributing to the downward pressure on yields, even amid policy uncertainties [16][17] Group 6: Asset Correlation Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield has shown a strong positive correlation with the U.S. dollar index, reflecting how interest rate expectations influence both markets [19] - Recent trends indicate that both the stock market and Treasury yields are moving in the same direction, driven by optimistic economic forecasts [18] - This correlation may shift if economic data diverges, potentially restoring the traditional inverse relationship between stocks and Treasuries [18]

瑞士作为传统避险经济体，瑞郎的避险属性在当前全球市场环境中得到凸显。近期全球地缘政治局势复 杂多变，中东冲突持续升级，欧洲经济复苏乏力，市场避险情绪有所升温，资金流向瑞郎等避险资产， 间接推动美元兑瑞郎下行。此外，瑞士银行业盈利能力改善，外汇储备规模稳定，进一步增强了瑞郎的 基本面支撑。 技术分析 从技术图形上来看，美元兑瑞郎日线级别呈现震荡下行趋势，当前汇价失守MA5均线支撑，短期空头 趋势占优。RSI指标当前读数为41，处于中性偏空区间，尚未进入超卖区域，下跌动能仍有延续空间； 小时级别MACD图显示绿色动能柱温和放大，死叉信号持续，短期回调压力未减。支撑位方面，关注 0.8720一线(近期震荡区间下沿)及0.8700整数关口，若下方失守则可能测试0.8680附近的38.2%斐波那契 回撤位；阻力位先看0.8760附近(MA10均线位置)，若上方突破则可能向0.8780一线发起冲击。 展望后市，美元兑瑞郎短期大概率维持震荡回落态势，后续需重点关注三大变量：一是美联储1月议息 会议政策指引，若释放更明确的宽松信号，可能加速美元回调；二是瑞士央行官员讲话及通胀数据，若 通胀持续低于目标，可能提前降息预期，削弱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that weak economic data in Germany has led to increased bets on interest rate cuts, overshadowing the impact of a surge in debt sales [1][4] - The benchmark 10-year German government bond is on track for its largest three-day gain since September, with yields near their lowest levels since December 5 [1] - The 30-year bond yield has dropped to 3.42%, down from a 14-year high reached last month [1] Group 2 - The issuance of 10-year German bonds on Wednesday saw a 1.29 times oversubscription, significantly lower than the previous issuance, while the sales amount nearly doubled to €4.5 billion (approximately $5.3 billion) [4] - The substantial increase in issuance this year may limit the upside potential for German bonds, particularly long-term ones, although current market trends indicate that concerns over economic weakness are prevailing [4] - Citigroup's economic surprise index for the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest point in over a month, suggesting that investors may have been overly optimistic about the region's economic growth [5] Group 3 - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described certain sectors of the economy as being in a "very critical" state, committing to revitalizing growth as the government's top priority this year [5] - Merz is attempting to reverse the economic downturn through a large long-term spending plan aimed at repairing infrastructure and modernizing the armed forces, with federal debt sales projected to increase by one-fifth to a record €512 billion by 2026 [6] - Market strategists suggest that the recent rebound in German bonds must be viewed in the context of softening inflation narratives in Germany and France, which have prompted some short positions to take profits after a rise in long-term German bond yields of over 25 basis points in the past two months [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend with both price and trading volume increasing, while the bond market sentiment is weak [1]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high with heavy trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in IC contracts before the Two Sessions [1]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume increased significantly, and there was an obvious phenomenon of rising price and volatility. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads [2]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend on Tuesday, rising 1.5% with heavy volume. Non - ferrous metals and non - bank finance led the gains, and the CSI 500 performed better among broad - based indices. The rally was driven by positive external sentiment, early entry of institutional funds, and the resonance between the commodity and stock markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in IC contracts [1][7]. - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was 4.71 points, 0.04 points, 21.86 points, and 10.10 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 8.45 points, 2.38 points, 8.26 points, and 4.78 points. The spread between current - month and next - month contracts and the total positions also changed [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued to rise significantly, and the trading volume of the options market reached 139.52 billion yuan, a 42.38% increase from the previous day. The game and chasing intensity at the options end increased significantly, with an obvious rise in the call trading volume ratio and an average increase of 2.05% in the implied volatility index. It is recommended to hold long call options or bull spreads and turn to a wait - and - see attitude for short - selling strategies [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The T main contract showed a volatile trend throughout the day. The inter - bank market liquidity was loose, and the DR001 rate slightly rose to around 1.26%. The A - share market's continuous improvement affected the bond market sentiment. The central bank's bond - buying scale in December was 50 billion yuan, falling short of expectations. Investors need to pay attention to whether the 10 - year treasury bond yield can hold the 1.9% mark. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and institutional investors can play for rebounds but should wait for a reversal [3][8][10]. - The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Operational suggestions include a volatile trend strategy, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focusing on basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including indicators such as China's December SPGI Services PMI, China's December foreign exchange reserves, the US December ADP employment change, the Eurozone November unemployment rate, etc., along with their previous values, forecast values, and some yet - to - be - announced values [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The 2026 work meeting of the People's Bank of China emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and providing financial support for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [12]. - A Fed governor said that subsequent economic data would support the view that interest rate cuts are appropriate, and the Fed should cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented [13][17][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation shows that trade - war related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks have risen with the Trump administration discussing the acquisition of Greenland and the US arresting Maduro. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The November employment rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a pause and only one possible rate cut next year. The market expects an 80% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next possible rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4505.70 per ounce, up 1.03% from the previous day and 3.57% from last week; London gold closed at $4490.35 per ounce, up 0.76% from the previous day and 3.53% from last week; Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 998.90 yuan per gram, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.82% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1001.92 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.30% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's gold futures are presented in detail, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [2][3] 2. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $81.22 per ounce, up 6.16% from the previous day and 13.37% from last week; London silver closed at $78.48 per ounce, up 4.54% from the previous day and 5.15% from last week; Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 19290 yuan per kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day and up 5.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 19495 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.71% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's silver futures are shown, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [4][5] 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day and up 17.68% from last week; London platinum closed at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 15.84% from last week; Platinum futures main contract in GZFE closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum in SGE closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day and 15.56% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in GZFE's platinum futures are provided, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [6][7][9] 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day and up 5.57% from last week; London palladium closed at $1837 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium futures main contract in GZFE closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day and up 11.01% from last week. [10] 5. Key Data on Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $66908.33 billion. - Key indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, the US dollar index is 98.60, and various bond spreads and interest rate differentials are presented. - US inflation data: The CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, the core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, etc. - US economic growth data: The GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.30%. - Other data: Unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, economic survey data, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are all provided. Also, the Fed's latest interest rate expectations are presented. [11][13][14]

1月7日，在新的一年拉开序幕之际，全球市场依然被浓厚的不确定性迷雾所笼罩。ZFX山海证券 观察 到，被市场视为"避险天堂"的黄金与白银表现尤为亮眼，其总市值一度重返全球资产排行榜的前两名， 力压一众科技巨头。在当前避险情绪升温的环境下，实物资产的价值存储功能再次得到了市场的广泛公 认，而加密资产如比特币目前则维持在第八位。 根据 CompaniesMarketCap 最新的统计数据，黄金以 31.1 万亿美元的庞大市值稳坐全球资产头把交椅。 ZFX山海证券 表示，白银与半导体巨头英伟达（Nvidia）之间的次席争夺战已进入白热化阶段。尽管英 伟达受益于人工智能算力需求的激增而势头强劲，但白银在近期多次反超英伟达，展现出贵金属在动荡 局势中的强劲爆发力。投资者在应对全球性贸易争端与潜在地缘冲突时，倾向于将资金撤出高风险板 块，转而配置具有长久历史背书的贵金属。 宏观层面的政策转向也是驱动这一现象的关键。美联储新管理团队领导下的降息预期，是促使金银价格 屡创新高的核心动能。目前，金价与银价已分别触及 4500 美元和 80 美元附近的历史高点。尽管这股资 金流尚未完全涌入加密货币市场，但ZFX山海证券 认为，随着 ...

摘要周三（1月7日）贵金属市场整体呈现冲高回落态势，尤其是午后外盘大幅跳水，带动内盘承压走低。现货黄金一度失守4450美元/盎司关口，日内跌超 1%，现货白银跌破79美元/盎司，日内跌幅扩大至3.00%。截至北京时间17:13，现货黄金最新报4464.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.65%，现货白银最新报79.31美元/ 盎司，跌幅2.35%。 12月"小非农"ADP就业人数与11月JOLTs职位空缺将于北京时间今晚21:15、23:00先后公布。同样将公布的还有ISM服务业数据。不过，本周市场的关键焦点 仍是周五发布的美国非农就业报告。若进一步显现劳动力市场走弱迹象，可能促使市场提前预期下一次降息的时间。LSEG数据显示，市场目前对3月降息的 定价概率约为五五开，但直到6月才完全计入一次降息。 中国央行数据显示，中国黄金（600916）储备规模在12月底达到3194.5亿美元，高于11月底的3106.5亿美元；中国12月末黄金储备报7415万盎司（约 2306.323吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93吨），为连续第14个月增持黄金。 （来源：国家外汇管理局） 据外媒报道，受过去一年金价暴涨和各国央行积极购入的推动， ...