上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货2月13日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计353559千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加3926千克。 沪银主力走势震荡偏弱，今日白银期货开盘报20400元/千克，最高触及20819元/千克，最低触及18930 元/千克，截止收盘报19782元/千克，下跌5.52%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 53806 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 25466 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 237259 | 3706 | | | 合计 | 316531 | 3706 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 37028 | 220 | | 总计 | | 353559 | 3926 | 【基本面消息】 本周美国非农就业超预期，降息预期受到压制，市场等待今晚CPI数据。地缘前景仍存不确定性，短期 贵金属波动率逐渐下降，震荡等待驱动，保持观望。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market rebounded on Friday after hitting a near one-week low, as investors await key U.S. inflation data to clarify the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction. Strong U.S. employment data previously suppressed rate cut expectations, putting pressure on gold prices this week [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 06:26 GMT, spot gold rose by 0.6% to $4,949.99 per ounce, but is still down 0.2% for the week, failing to reverse the weekly weakness [1]. - Gold futures for April delivery increased by 0.4% to $4,968 per ounce, mirroring the spot gold trend but also unable to change the weekly adjustment trend [1]. - On Thursday, gold fell approximately 3%, dropping below the critical support level of $5,000 per ounce, exacerbated by a stock market crash that increased selling pressure on gold [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Strong U.S. employment data released on Wednesday indicated a better-than-expected job market performance, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may maintain current interest rates for an extended period [3]. - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and adjust investment strategies [3]. - There is a market expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, with the first anticipated in June [3]. Group 3: Global Demand Factors - Changes in demand from major global gold consumption markets are also marginally impacting gold prices. India's gold market saw its first monthly discount this week due to weak demand, which has suppressed buying and selling willingness [3]. - The Chinese market experienced strong demand during the Lunar New Year, providing significant support for global gold demand [3]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - Other precious metals also rebounded on Friday but did not reverse their weekly weakness. Spot silver rose by 1.5% to $76.31 per ounce, recovering part of Thursday's 11% decline, but is still expected to drop 2.1% for the week [4]. - Spot platinum increased by 0.9% to $2,018.44 per ounce, while palladium rose by 2.2% to $1,652.31 per ounce, both expected to show weekly losses [4]. - The rebound in gold and other precious metals is seen as a technical correction and does not change the overall weakness observed this week, with the core issue being the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop due to a resurgence of AI-related panic leading to a sell-off in tech stocks, which triggered liquidity issues in the U.S. stock market. This resulted in traders selling metals to cover stock losses, alongside comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, which diminished safe-haven demand for gold [1][10]. Price Movement and Market Reaction - On February 12, gold prices fell sharply after reaching a high of $5,100.26, entering a trading range of $5,080 to $5,045 before plummeting over $160 to a low of $4,878.77. The day ended with gold closing at $4,921.86, marking a daily decline of $170.97 or 3.36% [3][12]. - The opening on February 13 saw gold prices supported by an upward trend channel, leading to an initial rebound. Additionally, the market absorbed the liquidity sell-off, with U.S. initial jobless claims exceeding expectations and January's existing home sales showing weakness, which continued to support gold prices [3][12]. Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Attention is focused on the U.S. January CPI data, with market expectations leaning towards an increase in rate cut predictions, which would be favorable for gold prices. The outlook for gold remains bullish, with strategies suggesting buying on dips when prices touch support levels [5][14]. - Technically, gold prices in February have shown a rebound after a drop, maintaining a position above the five-month moving average, indicating that the bearish sentiment from January has likely been exhausted. The new bullish outlook remains valid, with expectations of further strength or a potential consolidation before another upward move [6][14]. Technical Analysis - Daily charts indicate that gold prices fell below short-term moving averages, with bearish sentiment prevailing. However, there is support from the upward trend channel and various moving averages, suggesting a positive outlook for the bull market. Current pullbacks present opportunities for re-entry into long positions [8][16]. - Specific trading levels to watch include support around $4,900 or $4,840, and resistance at $5,020 or $5,095 for gold. For silver, support is noted at $74.00 or $70.90, with resistance at $79.70 or $83.60 [9][16].

Core Insights - The strong performance of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January has significantly impacted market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a reduction in such expectations [1][2] - The robust job growth indicates resilience and growth momentum in the U.S. economy, providing the Federal Reserve with greater policy flexibility [1] - The market's previous anticipation of interest rate cuts due to economic or inflationary pressures may be altered by the strong non-farm employment data, suggesting the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term [1] Economic Indicators - January's non-farm payroll data showed job additions far exceeding market expectations, reflecting a strong labor market [1] - The positive employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to implement interest rate cuts, at least in the near term [1][2] Future Policy Outlook - July is identified as a critical observation period for potential changes in monetary policy, influenced by seasonal economic adjustments and global economic uncertainties [1] - Despite the current positive data, there are concerns regarding future risks such as changes in the global economic landscape and geopolitical tensions, which could affect the Fed's decision-making [2]

Employment Data - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, marking the highest monthly increase in over a year [3][4] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, better than economists' predictions [3] Market Reaction - The strong employment report led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path, cooling earlier expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The probability of a rate cut in June dropped below 50% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool [4] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector was the biggest winner in the employment report, contributing 124,000 new jobs, which is double its normal growth rate [8] - Micron Technology saw a significant stock increase of 9.94%, driven by strong demand for storage chips due to artificial intelligence [6] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced a broad increase, with gold prices rising by 1.53% to $5,107.8 per ounce and silver prices soaring over 4.6% [8] - International oil prices also rose, with WTI crude increasing by 1.05% to $64.63 per barrel and Brent crude up by 0.87% to $69.40 per barrel [8] Economic Outlook - Concerns were raised about the quality of the employment data, with some analysts suggesting seasonal adjustments may have exaggerated the figures [9] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the current economic situation, indicating ongoing discussions that could influence future interest rate expectations [9]

机构观点 2025年第四季度业绩超预期：Q4营收245.6亿美元，同比增长9.08%，调整后每股收益2.46美元，均高于 市场预期。创新药部门和医疗器械业务成为主要增长动力。管理层预计2026年营收区间为995亿至1005 亿美元，调整后每股收益指引为11.43至11.63美元，均高于华尔街预期，提振市场信心。 行业地位 强生以941.93亿美元营收蝉联2025年全球药企第一，肿瘤药物收入同比增长95.9%，凸显创新管线竞争 力。公司通过与美国政府的药品定价协议化解关税压力，首席财务官表示已消化"数亿美元"降价影响， 同时维持盈利增长韧性。 经济观察网强生(JNJ)股价在2026年2月12日表现强劲，但并未突破历史新高。收盘价为242.24美元，单 日上涨0.57%，盘中最高触及242.28美元，最低239.68美元。年初至今累计上涨17.05%，同期道琼斯指 数上涨4.3%，表现显著优于大盘。历史最高收盘价为2025年12月创下的约250美元水平，2月12日收盘 价未突破该高点。 业绩经营情况 截至2026年2月，28家机构中57%给予"买入"或"增持"评级，目标均价237.48美元，略低于当前股价，反 映 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.3% [1] - The strong job growth, particularly in healthcare, has dampened market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing the anticipated timing for the first rate cut of the year to July [1] - Following the data release, major indices experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq down 0.16% and the S&P 500 closing nearly flat [1] Economic Trends - The January employment rebound is viewed as a response to the previous year's significant slowdown in job growth, with the total employment growth for the previous year revised down from 584,000 to 181,000 [4] - The current strong data may not indicate a stable long-term trend, as concerns about the labor market's rapid weakening persist [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in March has risen to over 94%, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is facing significant selling pressure, with concerns about "AI disruption" spreading from software to real estate and financial services [4] - Despite the overall market weakness, sectors such as energy, materials, and consumer staples have shown relative strength, indicating a rotation of funds from high-valuation growth stocks to value and hard asset stocks [4] - Micron's stock surged by 10% due to expectations of increased capacity for HBM4, highlighting a renewed focus on the certainty of AI hardware investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong non-farm payroll data that typically suppresses gold prices, gold has shown resilience, rising over 1% and maintaining levels above $5,080, indicating a structural shift in the gold market logic [1][2][6]. Economic Data Impact - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, which traditionally would suggest prolonged high interest rates, negatively impacting gold [2][3]. - Market expectations for a cumulative rate cut of about 50 basis points this year remain intact, despite the non-farm data suggesting otherwise [3]. Market Dynamics - The limited rise in the U.S. dollar index post-data release indicates a lack of sustained momentum for the "long-term high rates" narrative [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are contributing to a long-term support for gold [3]. Upcoming Data Focus - The market's attention is shifting to the upcoming U.S. January CPI data, which will directly influence the probability of a rate cut in June [3]. - A further slowdown in inflation could provide more upward space for gold, while higher inflation may cause short-term volatility, but deep corrections are deemed unlikely under current conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear upward channel, with a structure of "higher lows and higher highs" since the low on the 7th [5]. - Key resistance levels are at $5,088 and $5,119, while support levels are at $5,058 and $5,025 [5]. - As long as gold remains within the channel and maintains the upward momentum, the bullish outlook is intact, indicating a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal [6]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment suggests that the focus is not on whether gold can rise further, but rather on the effectiveness of bearish pressures [6]. - The upcoming CPI data will be a critical test for gold; if it can hold its channel structure, the upward trend may continue [7].

Labor Market Insights - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 70,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, surpassing expectations[2] - Hourly wage growth increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year[2] - The total employment figure for 2025 was revised down by 862,000[2] Sectoral Employment Trends - Job growth in January was concentrated in healthcare (82,000 jobs), social assistance (42,000 jobs), and construction (33,000 jobs)[2] - The number of part-time workers decreased by 453,000, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market[2] - The number of individuals wanting to work but not in the labor force fell by 399,000[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the non-farm data release, the market initially pushed back the June rate cut expectation to July, but later adjusted to favor a June cut probability of 47.1%[2][10] - U.S. Treasury yields rose post-data release, while gold prices experienced temporary fluctuations but remained stable[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, indicating market uncertainty[2] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on trade and financial markets[12] - Geopolitical crises, particularly in the Middle East, may heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[12] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economic environment[12]

Group 1 - The non-farm payroll report reflects the real state of the economy and the policy direction, acting as a mirror rather than just a "market amplifier" [1] - The January non-farm data shows a strong monthly performance with 130,000 new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, but the annual benchmark revision significantly lowers the 2025 employment growth forecast from 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a weaker labor market than previously reported [4] - The contradiction of strong monthly data against a backdrop of long-term weakness highlights the need for investors to understand the cautious hiring trends and the overall economic context [4] Group 2 - The strong monthly job growth has led to a delay in interest rate cuts, pushing the first expected cut from June to July, as the labor market shows no significant deterioration [6] - This shift in interest rate expectations has resulted in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a temporary strengthening of the dollar, while gold prices are under pressure due to the high real interest rates [6] - Despite the short-term pressure on gold, there remains significant anticipation for future policy shifts, as the underlying vulnerabilities exposed by the annual revision persist [6] Group 3 - In a volatile macroeconomic environment, investors need to establish a systematic cognitive framework for asset allocation and risk hedging, rather than relying solely on simplistic relationships between interest rates and asset prices [8] - Gold is positioned as a risk hedging tool within asset allocation, suitable for mitigating long-term currency credit risks and balancing portfolio volatility before policy shifts occur [8] - The non-farm report conveys dual signals of strength and revision, widening the divergence in interest rate paths, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying logic rather than merely predicting market direction [9]