1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silver market is affected by multiple factors. The recent trend of precious metals is strongly negatively correlated with crude oil and the US dollar index. Due to the continuous tension in the Middle - East situation, energy prices are strong, and the inflation expectation in March has increased, which reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has returned to the 100 mark, suppressing precious metals. The silver main contract oscillated weakly last week. In the future, attention should be paid to energy prices, interest - rate cut expectations, the delivery data of COMEX silver in March, geopolitical risks, global liquidity, and the trend of the US dollar index. The long - term financial and monetary attributes of silver still exist [8][10]. - The operation strategy is to hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term and adopt the double - buying strategy for options [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - **Silver Trend**: The recent trend of precious metals is strongly negatively correlated with crude oil and the US dollar index. Affected by the continuous tension in the Middle - East situation, energy prices are strong, with the crude oil price closing at $99.3 per barrel. The inflation expectation in March has increased, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has returned to the 100 mark, suppressing precious metals. As of last Friday's close, the weekly decline of Shanghai silver was 3.8%; as of the early morning of March 14, London silver closed at 80.58, with a weekly decline of 4.6% [8]. - **US Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, higher than the expected value of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion range for the second consecutive month. In terms of employment, the US Department of Labor data showed that the non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected value, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak US employment data still keeps the market's hope for the Fed to cut interest rates [8]. - **Inflation**: The US inflation data in February generally met market expectations. The US CPI in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year, also in line with expectations and the previous value. However, the rise in crude oil prices further intensifies inflation concerns, and the market continues to postpone the time point of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The Fed will hold a meeting on March 18, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged [8]. - **Interest Rate**: Last week, both the US dollar index and the US Treasury bond yield increased. The US dollar index returned to the 100 mark, putting pressure on precious metals such as gold and silver [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: According to the World Silver Association, the silver market has been in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2026, with a possible gap of 67 million ounces. In terms of physical investment demand for silver, as of March 13, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - SLV were 15,460 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91%. In terms of inventory, after the US temporarily exempted silver and other precious metals from additional tariffs, the COMEX silver inventory flowed out significantly, mostly to the London spot market; the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange in China are still decreasing and are at historically low levels [8]. - **Price Spread**: Last week, the price spread between domestic and foreign silver futures widened from 2,956 to 3,025; the London spot gold - silver ratio was reported at 62.27 [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term; for options, use the double - buying strategy [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - There are trend charts of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver, but no specific text analysis is provided [13][17]. 3.3 US Economy - There are charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate, but no specific text analysis is provided [25][26]. 3.4 Inflation - There are charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE, but no specific text analysis is provided [33][34][35]. 3.5 Interest Rate - There are charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][44]. 3.6 Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver market has been in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2026, with a possible gap of 67 million ounces. The global silver supply and demand balance table shows the changes in supply and demand from 2016 to 2025F [8][48]. - **Silver Demand**: There is a chart of silver ETF holdings, but no specific text analysis is provided [49][50]. - **Silver Inventory**: There are charts of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [52][55]. 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rate - **US Dollar Index**: There is a chart of the US dollar index, but no specific text analysis is provided [61][62]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: There is a chart of the US dollar against the renminbi (CFETS spot exchange rate), but no specific text analysis is provided [64][65]. - **Other Exchange Rates**: There are charts of the British pound against the US dollar, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, the euro against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen, but no specific text analysis is provided [69][71]. 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - There are charts of the domestic - foreign silver futures trend and the domestic - foreign silver price spread, but no specific text analysis is provided [78][79]. 3.9 Silver Basis - There are charts of the domestic and foreign silver basis, but no specific text analysis is provided [86][88]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - There is a chart of the gold - silver ratio, but no specific text analysis is provided [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond and US stock industries is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical disturbances reshape interest - rate cut expectations, and in the shadow of stagflation, a defensive approach is prioritized [1] - The US bond market is caught in a dual - game of macro - data verification and geopolitical shocks, leading to a significant shift in market policy bets [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma, and inflation expectations are the key variable in determining the future monetary policy [2] - It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, focus on short - term bonds, and wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Game - The US bond market is deeply involved in the dual - game of macro - data verification and geopolitical shocks. Although the February CPI data met expectations, the surge in energy prices due to Middle - East geopolitical conflicts has increased concerns about secondary inflation and strengthened the expectation of core inflation stickiness [1] - Market policy bets have been significantly revised. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March is nearly 100%, the expected mid - year interest - rate cut window has been postponed, the expected first interest - rate cut has been shifted from June to October or later, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year has been reduced from 2 - 3 times to only 1 time [1] Market Performance - The US bond yield curve shows a complex tug - of - war situation. The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuates between 4.1% - 4.3% [2] - High - interest rates, large fiscal deficits, and bond - issuing plans of the US government have made the supply - demand structure of long - term bonds tight, and the attractiveness of US bonds as a traditional safe - haven asset has been suppressed in the short term [2] - Unless geopolitical conflicts lead to a sharp increase in the risk of economic recession and trigger safe - haven buying, the US bond market is likely to maintain a pattern of high volatility and range - bound consolidation [2] Policy Outlook - The Fed will face a difficult choice between combating inflation and promoting growth at next week's meeting. It is expected to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range and avoid making specific commitments about the future path [2] - The current rise in inflation expectations is mainly short - term, and long - term inflation expectations remain stable. The evolution of inflation expectations in the next few months will be the core variable in determining the shift of monetary policy [2] Investment Advice - The future market situation depends highly on the duration of the conflict. If the conflict is short - lived, inflation may resume its downward trend, providing conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in the second half of this year. Otherwise, the high - interest - rate environment may last longer [3] - It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, strictly control the duration, take profit when the safe - haven demand surges, focus on 2 - 5 - year short - and medium - term bonds to obtain stable coupons and avoid the risk of sharp interest - rate fluctuations, and wait for the situation and inflation path to become clear [3] Market Trends (Not detailed in the given content, skipped) US Macro - Economy and Liquidity (Not detailed in the given content, only figure references provided, skipped) Exchange Rate (Not detailed in the given content, only figure references provided, skipped) Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), as well as the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds [63][71] - It also presents the returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry) [69] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 10 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating withdrawals, 5 rating upgrades, 2 rating downgrades, and 1 first - time rating [73]

Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are rising, leading to an increase in oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 11.3% to $103.1 per barrel [2][46] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, while developed market indices generally declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 3.2% and 2.0% respectively [3][9] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with India's SENSEX30 and Ho Chi Minh Index down by 5.5% and 4.1% respectively [3] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 13 basis points to 4.28%, while yields in other developed countries also increased, with Germany's yield up by 10 basis points to 3.01% [21][27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.6% to 100.50, with other currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the euro and British pound, which fell by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [32][41] - Commodity prices mostly rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 8.6% to $98.7 per barrel, while precious metals like gold and silver saw declines of 2.3% and 4.6% respectively [46][53] Group 3 - The U.S. CPI for February matched expectations at 2.4% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [93] - Real disposable income in the U.S. rose significantly by 0.7% in January, primarily due to tax refunds [95] - The JOLT job openings for January were reported at 6.946 million, exceeding expectations of 6.75 million, indicating a strong labor market [100]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 伊朗局势短期难以缓解，资产价格定价模式发生变化。不过还是要关注通胀是否抬 | 黄金 长线持有 | 头，届时降息预期将会逆反。另外关注滞胀交易的演化路径。长期战略配置价值不 | | ★ | | | | 变，短期关注结构性的入场时机。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但跌幅更大，但是如果发生滞胀交易，白银则有负面影响。另 | 白银 | | | 观望为主 | | 外如果伊朗危机结束，白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域的需求仍然较大，但 | | ★ | | 是伊朗局何时收场不可知。短期白银参与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 中东局势进一步恶化，布伦特原油突破 | | 100 美元大关，美元指数走强，美对中国在 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 内 16 个贸易伙伴发起 301 调查，特朗普督促鲍威尔立刻降息，短期铜承压回调，弱 | | ★ | | 势整理。 | | 中东局势混乱，美元走强，有色板块承压，欧洲锌冶炼产能占全球 | | 17%，若能源价 | | 锌 | | | | 区间盘整 | ★ | 格居高不下，或 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The external situation is that the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly yesterday. Externally, the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, redemption pressure in the private credit market, and a sharp decline in US stocks, both gold and silver prices fell. The US dollar continued to rise, and the risk - appetite continued to decline. Gold is expected to fluctuate, while silver prices remain under pressure [4][5]. - In the medium - term, with the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. Rising oil prices have increased concerns about stagflation [8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.49% to 99.75, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 510 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the main force's net long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 58,115 kilograms. The main force's net long position increased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Dubai witnessed multiple drone attacks, escalating the situation in the Middle East. Concerns about inflation have decreased, and expectations of interest - rate cuts have cooled. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4.9 yuan per gram, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Silver**: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to heat up, and there is redemption pressure in the private credit market. Silver prices have fallen, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan per kilogram. Concerns about oil prices have resurfaced, and silver prices remain under pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 15:00, pay attention to the UK's January GDP, industrial output, and goods trade balance. - At 15:45, focus on France's February CPI final value. - At 17:45, listen to the speech of European Central Bank Governing Council member Wunsch. - At 20:30, watch for the US's January personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), preliminary durable goods orders, and the fourth - quarter GDP revision, as well as Canada's February unemployment rate. - At 22:00, focus on the preliminary value of the US's March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. - On Saturday, there is the Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference. - On Sunday, there is the 315 Gala [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.1, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The futures warehouse receipts are 105,420 kilograms, an increase of 510 kilograms, which is bearish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 233, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 309,974 kilograms, an increase of 58,115 kilograms, which is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The main force's net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.6. Factors Affecting Gold and Silver - **Gold** - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, rising expectations of easing, sharp decline in the US dollar, and the resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes [10][11]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [10][11]. - **Silver** - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, significant shadow of the Federal Reserve, potential determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, resurgence of Trump's tariff disputes, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices, low spot inventory, and intense supply - shortage games [10][11]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy fades, significant differences within the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest - rate cuts, deterioration of risk appetite, and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The recent Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have become a core variable affecting the global macro - situation and financial markets. The US economic outlook faces greater uncertainty, while China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. Market sentiment is mainly affected by geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of slow cooling. It is recommended to adopt a principle of "not predicting, but more responding" [1]. - In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is supported by the relatively strong US dollar index and is difficult to start a trend - based appreciation. In the long term, if the domestic economic fundamentals continue to improve, the RMB may show a mild appreciation trend [2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the bottom supported by domestic policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the US - Iran conflict, the implementation effect of domestic policies, and the annual report disclosure [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to hold a small amount of long - term bottom positions and sell short - term long positions at appropriate high prices [5]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to enter a high - level shock in the short term, with the price having a bottom support due to geopolitical event premiums, but the upward space being restricted by shipping companies' operational adjustment capabilities and potential regulatory interventions [7][8][9]. - The lithium carbonate futures are in a shock - adjustment stage, and the overall speculative sentiment is gradually decreasing [12]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are in a wide - range shock. The photovoltaic industry is in the bottom stage of the current production capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [13][14]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina to be shock - sorted, and cast aluminum alloy to be shock - strong. For copper, the price is affected by factors such as the approaching FOMC meeting, the end of the Two Sessions, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict. Zinc is expected to be weak and sideways in the short term and strong in the medium term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be shock - strong. Tin is expected to be in adjustment, and lead is expected to be in shock [15][16][21]. - For oilseeds, it is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between months and stop profiting from widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For oils, the market rebounds following the crude oil market, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review results [27][28][29]. - For energy and oil and gas, the trading focus of the crude oil market is on the Middle - East situation, and the fuel oil market is strongly supported by supply - side constraints. The asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the easing of the Middle - East situation [32][33][34]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a bull - market foundation in the long term, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are strategically bullish, and dips are considered as opportunities to build long positions [37][38][39]. - For chemicals, pulp and offset paper futures are affected by geopolitical factors and are expected to be in a wide - range shock. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong before the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz issue, but attention should be paid to the callback risk. LPG is expected to be shock - strong, methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, and plastics and PP are supported by cost and fundamental expectations and are expected to be strong [43][45][47]. - For rubber, it is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium term, with light positions. Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [56][57][87]. - For urea, the war risk is likely to trigger a market driven by international cost increase and domestic sentiment excitement. For glass and soda ash, soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass demand needs to be verified [59][60][62]. - For black commodities, steel prices are supported by the cost of furnace materials in the short term, but the rebound height is limited. Iron ore prices are short - term strong but the sustainability is doubtful. Coking coal and coke face short - term over - supply problems, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but have limited upward space [68][71][73]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for pigs, it is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. Cotton prices are supported by domestic supply - demand tightening expectations but are restricted by the high internal - external price difference. Sugar futures are expected to continue the strong pattern. Eggs are expected to be shock - strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy call options on the main contract. Apples are expected to be in a strong - shock pattern, dates are expected to be in a low - level shock, and logs are affected by geopolitical sentiment and are recommended to be observed or traded in the range [79][81][83]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have increased the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, while China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm is likely to be "slow at first and fast later", and attention should be paid to the risk of the US economy falling into stagflation [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In the short term, the RMB is difficult to appreciate trend - based due to the support of the US dollar index. In the long term, it may appreciate mildly if the domestic economic fundamentals improve [2]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the bottom supported by domestic policy expectations [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hold a small amount of long - term bottom positions and sell short - term long positions at appropriate high prices [5]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: Enter a high - level shock in the short term, with price support from geopolitical event premiums and upward space restricted by shipping companies' operations and regulations [7][8][9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In a shock - adjustment stage, with decreasing speculative sentiment [12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In a wide - range shock, the photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the production capacity cycle [13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is shock - strong, alumina is shock - sorted, and cast aluminum alloy is shock - strong [15]. - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as the FOMC meeting, the Two Sessions, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict [16][20]. - **Zinc**: Weak and sideways in the short term, strong in the medium term [21]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Shock - strong [22][23]. - **Tin**: In adjustment [25]. - **Lead**: In shock [26]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Hold long positions in the spread between months and stop profiting from widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [27][28]. - **Oils**: Rebound following the crude oil market, pay attention to the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review results [29][30]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC Crude Oil**: The trading focus is on the Middle - East situation, and attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation situation [32]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strongly supported by supply - side constraints, the strong pattern is difficult to change in the short term [33]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the easing of the Middle - East situation [34]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Bull - market foundation in the long term, short - term adjustment risk [37][38]. - **Gold and Silver**: Strategically bullish, dips are opportunities to build long positions [39][40]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Affected by geopolitical factors, expected to be in a wide - range shock [43][44]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Strong before the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz issue, pay attention to the callback risk [45][46]. - **LPG**: Shock - strong [47][48]. - **Methanol**: May catch up with the increase of olefins next week [49][50]. - **Plastic PP**: Supported by cost and fundamental expectations, expected to be strong [51][52][53]. - **Rubber**: Bullish on dips in the medium term, synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock [56][57][87]. - **Urea**: The war risk may trigger a market driven by international cost increase and domestic sentiment excitement [59]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash supply pressure persists, glass demand needs to be verified [60][62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Supported by the cost of furnace materials in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [68]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term strong but the sustainability is doubtful [69][71]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Face short - term over - supply problems [72][73]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Supported by cost but have limited upward space [74][75]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: Sell call options on the main contract [79]. - **Cotton**: Supported by domestic supply - demand tightening expectations but restricted by the high internal - external price difference [80][81]. - **Sugar**: Expected to continue the strong pattern [82][83]. - **Eggs**: Shock - strong in the short term, buy call options on the main contract [84][85]. - **Apples**: In a strong - shock pattern [90][91]. - **Dates**: In a low - level shock [92]. - **Logs**: Affected by geopolitical sentiment, recommended to be observed or traded in the range [93][94].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to offer trading strategies for each market. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the stock index was in a low - level oscillation. The main contracts of stock index futures all declined, with increased trading volume and positions. The market was affected by factors such as the US 301 investigation and the adjustment of technology stocks. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a bull spread option strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The market sentiment was initially cautious but turned positive due to the news of potential cuts in inter - bank deposit rates. It is recommended to close short positions on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The supply of soybeans still has an impact, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, narrow the MRM09 spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices rose, and domestic sugar prices showed a strong trend. The production increase in India and Thailand may be lower than expected, and the global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease. It is recommended that international sugar prices and Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil fluctuated. The expectation of biodiesel is positive, and the oils may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations in the short - term, consider p59 and y59 reverse arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures rose. The spot prices in the production areas are strong, and the futures market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, adopt a high - level oscillation strategy for the 05 corn, widen the 05 corn - starch spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog prices are oscillating. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to face pressure. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and adopt a short strangle option strategy [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot prices are stable, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long operations on dips for the 05 peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43][45]. - **Eggs**: The egg prices are stable. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. It is recommended to short the June contracts on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory has decreased, and the prices are relatively firm. The 5 - month contract of apple futures is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to exit and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [50][51]. - **Cotton**: The outer - market cotton futures oscillated. The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [53][56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The black sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is supported by raw materials and is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strong trend, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies, hold the short coil - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking market fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in oil and gas and chemicals. It is recommended that cautious investors stay on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose rapidly from the bottom. The supply disturbance is increasing, and the spot market is recommended for high - level hedging. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force of ferroalloys is strong, but the profit - loss ratio has decreased. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver oscillated due to the repeated geopolitical situation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating range strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and exit the bull call spread strategy on rallies [71][72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in an oscillating situation due to the continuous game of the Middle East issue. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for platinum and palladium, wait for low - long opportunities for platinum, look for opportunities to go long on the platinum - palladium spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by geopolitical risks and continues to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the short - term oscillation stabilizes, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][80][81]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price oscillates. It is recommended to expect short - term oscillations [82][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum production in the Middle East has suspended production cuts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91][92]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the zinc price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [93][94]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply and demand of lead have increased in March, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [96][97]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is strong due to the blocked passage of the strait. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy [98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [101][103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to conduct range operations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have not improved significantly, and the price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to be bearish, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate is not prominent, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a low - long strategy, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [109][111]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillates downwards due to high risk - aversion sentiment. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate downwards and stay on the sidelines for options [112][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation is repeated, and ship attacks continue. The spot freight rate is affected by fuel prices and insurance costs. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the near - month 04 contract and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [115][116][117]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The negotiation on iron ore pricing rights between China and Australia is at a deadlock, and the future rental height of the Capesize ship type may be limited. The market trends of different ship types are differentiated. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the war duration on the dry bulk shipping chain [118][119][120]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market trading is dull, and the EU has differences in the EU ETS reform. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the EU's policy on carbon market reform, geopolitical situation evolution, and energy supply recovery progress [120][121][124]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk spill - over range of crude oil has expanded, and the Brent oil price is above $100 per barrel. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [125]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is limited and the price is rising, while downstream users are on the sidelines. The cost is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [129][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The low - sulfur supply is expected to shrink, and the demand in Singapore may increase. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [132][133]. - **LPG**: The LPG price follows the oil price. It is recommended to expect high - level oscillations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [134]. - **Natural Gas**: Qatar's production suspension continues, and the supply shortage is accumulating. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for trading, arbitrage, and options [137][138][140]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PX and PTA is expected to shrink unexpectedly. It is recommended to expect an upward trend driven by supply tension, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141][142][143]. - **BZ & EB**: The domestic operating loads of pure benzene and styrene have decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Middle - East logistics on supply. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply impact and prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [146][147][148]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene cracking enterprises have reduced their loads. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand structure is expected to improve. It is recommended to expect a strong oscillation, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [149][150]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [151][152]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited. The bottle - chip price follows the cost and is strong. It is recommended to follow the cost and be bullish, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand of propylene are supported. The operating load has decreased, and the cost of downstream products is under pressure. It is recommended to expect an upward trend, pay attention to the Middle - East situation, prevent the price from falling back, conduct positive arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [156][157][159]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions for L and PP. Set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Consider arbitrage opportunities for SPC L2605&PP2605 and set stop - loss levels at recent high points. Stay on the sidelines for options [160][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is strengthening. It is recommended to expect a strengthening trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [163][164]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillates widely. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and not chase the rise, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [165][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillates weakly. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [167][168][169]. - **Glass**: The glass price has large fluctuations, wide - range oscillations, and a weak direction. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to expect wide - range oscillations and a weak direction, close the short - glass long - soda - ash arbitrage position, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][173]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillates at a high level due to news disturbances. The supply in Iran may decrease, and the domestic market is worried about supply shortages. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [174][175]. - **Urea**: The urea price oscillates widely following the energy - chemical market. The supply is at a historical high, and the demand is gradually increasing. It is recommended to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [177][178]. - **Pulp**: The pulp inventory is high, and the market rebound is weak. The supply exceeds demand, and the demand recovery is slow. It is recommended to conduct wide - range oscillations, lay out long positions in small amounts near integer points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [179][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the paper price. The supply and demand of offset printing paper are in a weak balance, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [182][184][185]. - **Logs**: The import cost of logs is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of construction sites. The price is supported by cost and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][187][188]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The full - steel tire production line has reached a new high in operation. The domestic tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high point, conduct small - amount long operations for the NR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the RU2605 put 15750 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent high points [189][190][191]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The profit of butadiene rubber has improved. The profit of BD has increased, and the tire production line operation rate is increasing. It is recommended to chase long positions for the BR 05 contract and set stop - loss levels at recent low points, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [193][194][195].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The February CPI in the US basically met market expectations, but the strengthening US dollar still exerted strong pressure on the precious metals market [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the long - term supply shortage logic for platinum remains solid. In 2026, global platinum supply is expected to increase slightly, and total demand will rise to 237 tons, with a market shortage of about 7 tons for the fourth consecutive year, and the depletion of above - ground inventory supports platinum prices [2]. - Palladium has a weak medium - term fundamental outlook. It is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts and faces dual pressures from the increasing penetration of electric vehicles and the accelerating substitution of platinum [2]. - In the short term, if crude oil prices continue to rise, platinum and palladium may continue to be under pressure. In the medium term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the subsequent trend of US inflation data needs to be observed. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 564.65 yuan/gram, down 5.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 416.60 yuan/gram, down 8.85 yuan [2]. - The main contract position of platinum was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands; the main contract position of palladium was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 553.23 yuan/gram, down 3.85 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 388.00 yuan/gram, down 11.00 yuan [2]. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.42 yuan/gram, up 1.50 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 28.60 yuan/gram, down 2.15 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.85%, up 0.03% [2]. - The VIX volatility index was 24.23, down 0.70 [2]. Industry News - US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received internal instructions to stop the military action [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the risk of energy supply disruption caused by the Iran war, which was the largest coordinated release in the agency's history [2]. - The latest US inflation data showed that in February, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the February data did not reflect the impact of the soaring oil prices caused by the Iran situation, and more data were needed to determine when the Fed would cut interest rates again [2]. - The US Treasury data showed that the US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit from the beginning of the current fiscal year to February had exceeded $1 trillion, but was far lower than the same period last year. The total budget deficit so far this fiscal year was $1.004 trillion, a decrease of about 12% compared with the same period in 2025 due to faster growth in government revenue than expenditure [2]. Key Points to Watch - On March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index; on March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders [2]

Inflation Data - February CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations and previous values[1] - Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, also meeting expectations[1] Market Impact - Overall inflation data is relatively mild, with limited market impact due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[3] - Energy prices showed a significant increase in March, which may heighten concerns for future inflation data[3] Geopolitical Concerns - The situation in the Middle East remains a primary concern, with market expectations fluctuating based on developments involving Iran and Israel[3] - The G7 finance ministers announced readiness to release strategic oil reserves, leading to significant adjustments in oil prices[3] Oil Reserve Release - The U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels of strategic oil reserves over approximately 120 days to stabilize market expectations and oil prices[3] - Historical data indicates that releasing oil reserves can temporarily lower energy prices, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict[3] Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a dichotomy between geopolitical risks and strong support from AI industry trends[3] - The Nasdaq index's performance near support levels is crucial, with liquidity concerns reflected in precious metals trends[3] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on foreign trade and financial markets[8] - Further geopolitical crises, such as conflicts in the Middle East, could heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[8] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could increase downward pressure on the global economy, affecting trade and financial markets[8]