2026年以来，A股市场依旧火热，与2025年极致的成长风格有所差异的是，当前顺周期板块强势崛起，有色、油气等接连冲高，或成为本轮春季躁动最耀眼 的板块。 1月28日，油气、有色板块再度领涨，"金铜含量"领先的有色ETF汇添富（159652）大涨3.72%，油气ETF汇添富（159309）大涨3.24%，再创历史新高。 | 同指数ETF仅显示最活跃的一(2 ■ 成交额 > 0.0 亿 ■ 估算规模 > 0.0 亿 ■ 跟踪指数 | | | --- | --- | | 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | 159652 主 有色ETF汇添富 | 2.147 0.077 3.72% 0.37% 3.05亿 | | 159309 主 油气ETF汇添富 | 1.370 0.043 3.24% 0.32% 5274.38万 | 值得注意的是，顺周期板块的春季躁动并非是偶尔，而是"全球风云变幻、A股盈利修复预期、资金抢跑复苏预期"等多重因素催化的结果： 从全球宏观视角来看，康波萧条期内，美元信用裂痕扩张，叠加地缘冲突频繁涌现，大宗商品的货币属性和安全属性得到增强，商品的超级周期启动！金银 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the A-share cyclical sector, particularly the 中证现金流ETF大成 (159235), which has seen a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The 中证全指自由现金流指数, which the ETF tracks, focuses on companies with high free cash flow, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities, and has shown a strong upward trend, with a 2.02% increase [1][2] - The index's top ten weighted stocks include major companies such as 中国海油, 上汽集团, and 格力电器, which are positioned to benefit from the current cyclical recovery in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The index's focus on high cash flow companies is particularly relevant in the current cyclical environment, where sectors like oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics and rising product prices [2] - The recovery in domestic industrial production and infrastructure demand, along with low inventory levels, is providing strong upward momentum for the index, enhancing its performance [2] - The home appliance sector, which constitutes about 10% of the index, is also benefiting from increased domestic demand and improving conditions in the real estate sector, contributing to the overall resilience of the index [2] Group 3 - The analysis from 西部证券 indicates that during periods of economic downturn, there is a tendency for investors to flock to gold and stable cash flow assets, which has led to a reevaluation of cash flow strategies in the A-share market [3] - The shift from "involution" to "anti-involution" and the return of cross-border capital are expected to improve corporate free cash flow, making cash flow strategies more competitive compared to dividend strategies [3]

沪指开盘涨0.25%，报4150.22点，深成指涨0.29%，报14371.96点，创业板指涨0.51%，报3359.79点，科 创50指数涨0.66%，报1566.19点。沪深两市合计成交额249.24亿元，全市场超2800股下跌。 | 名称 | 涨幅 现价 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | +0.25% 4150.22 +10.32 | | | 深证成指 | +0.29%14371.96 +42.05 | | | 创业板指 | +0.51% 3359.79 +17.19 | | | 科创50 | +0.66% 1566.19 +10.21 | | | 北证50 | +0.05% 1565.76 | +0.83 | 贵金属概念集体高开，中国黄金4连板，湖南黄金3连板，四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金、豫光金铅、 盛达资源、兴业银锡高开。消息面上，现货黄金盘中首次突破5200美元/盎司，再创新高，新年首月累 计涨超880美元。截至发稿，报5184.54美元/盎司，涨0.05%。 | 名称 | 涨幅量 1分钟涨速 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with major indices closing in the green, indicating a stable performance of large-cap stocks. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, with a total turnover of 2.92 trillion yuan, down by 359.2 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.71% respectively, while the North Star 50 Index fell by 0.05% [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor, photovoltaic equipment, and precious metals sectors showed active performance, while the aquaculture and liquor sectors underwent adjustments. Notably, the semiconductor sector saw a net inflow of over 9.4 billion yuan, with significant contributions from automotive chips and 5G sectors [2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector rebounded strongly after a day of adjustment, rising by 2.79% on January 27, with several stocks achieving substantial gains [2][3] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the market's driving logic is shifting towards performance verification, with a recommendation for a balanced asset allocation strategy. Investors are encouraged to focus on technology growth sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering cyclical, resource, and certain consumer sectors for potential investment opportunities [5] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to influence market dynamics, with sectors showing sustainable performance likely to attract more capital. Historical data indicates that sectors with strong earnings growth during this period tend to achieve excess returns [4][5]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview: Petrochemical and Chemical Sector Key Insights - The petrochemical industry saw a significant increase in holding proportion to 0.6% in Q4 2025, up from 0.35% in Q3 2025, indicating rising market interest, particularly in upstream companies like Jereh, the "Three Barrels of Oil," and Baofeng [3][1] - Some petrochemical product prices, including benzene, PX, styrene, and ethylene glycol, have rebounded due to supply-side disruptions such as maintenance and unplanned shutdowns, despite current demand being in a low season [5][1] - The chemical industry’s active public fund allocation increased by 0.6% in Q4 2025, yet it remains under-allocated, suggesting significant future growth potential [7][1] Future Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for the chemical industry due to declining capital expenditures, near-zero capacity growth in most sub-industries, and restrictions from dual carbon policies on new project expansions [8][1] - The IMF's upward revision of global economic growth expectations is expected to boost chemical demand, particularly in emerging sectors like energy storage, robotics, AI, and commercial aerospace [9][1] Regulatory Impact - The dual carbon policy will significantly restrict new project expansions, requiring carbon emission evaluations as a prerequisite for project approvals. This is expected to pose challenges for new projects until 2027 [10][1] Sub-Industry Insights Polyurethane, PTA, and Polyester Filament - Polyurethane prices have recently adjusted but are expected to rise during the peak season from March to May. Limited capacity growth in PTA and polyester filament, along with high operating rates, is driving gradual improvements in market conditions [4][1][13][1] Potash and Refrigerants - Potash prices have steadily increased to around 3,000 CNY, with tight supply conditions expected to persist due to rising global consumption. The refrigerant market is stable but anticipated to rise as the peak season approaches, with significant price potential for mainstream refrigerants [16][1] Market Dynamics - The chemical and non-ferrous metal industries face supply constraints, with slow resource expansion potentially leading to long-term price increases. The dual carbon policy may similarly impact chemical products, creating a scenario of constrained supply against growing demand [11][1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies like Baofeng, Weixing, and private refining firms as key investment targets in the cyclical sector. Additionally, consider investment opportunities in companies like Xin'an and Hesheng Silicon Industry in the silicon chemical sector, and in potassium fertilizer companies like Yajiang International and Salt Lake Co. [6][1][14][1][16][1] Conclusion - The petrochemical and chemical industries are poised for significant changes driven by market dynamics, regulatory impacts, and evolving demand patterns. Investors should remain vigilant and consider strategic allocations in identified growth areas while monitoring policy developments and market trends.

1月26日，市场交易放量突破3万亿元，指数却微幅收低，板块与个股呈现显著分化，3771只股票收盘下跌。沪指在有色、煤炭等周期股护盘下仅微跌，而 卫星、半导体等科技赛道集体回吐，双创指数跌近1%。 21只个股出现超1亿元的大额压单，集中在中国平安、贵州茅台（600519）等权重股，紫金矿业（601899）卖一挂出近41亿元巨额压单。 板块跌多涨少，分化显著。有色金属板块大涨4.57%，个股掀涨停潮；石油石化、煤炭跟进，和顺石油（603353）、洲际油气（600759）、中曼石油 （603619）均涨停，农林牧渔、非银金融、银行等板块护盘。 受访人士表示，资金并未撤离，只是从高位科技成长板块流向顺周期及避险方向，完成"高切低"。经历前期阶段性拉升后，资金分歧加大，后市大概率通 过震荡与结构性轮动消化涨幅。春季行情预期仍在，资金将围绕业绩验证与估值重估展开新一轮博弈。 黄金、煤炭、石油等大涨 截至收盘，沪指微跌0.09%收涨4132.61点，创业板指收跌0.91%报3319.15点，深证成指收跌0.85%。科创50、北证50均跌逾1%，沪深300、上证50微红。 今日沪深京三市量能温和放大，日成交额增加1627亿元 ...

Market Overview - On January 26, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations after reaching resistance at 4160 points, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61 points, down 0.09%[7] - The total trading volume for both markets was 32,810 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Financial, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum sectors performed well, while aerospace, electronic chemicals, computer equipment, and semiconductors lagged[3] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with non-ferrous metals and precious metals leading the gains, while aerospace and semiconductor sectors saw significant outflows[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 16.91 times and 54.02 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][13] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on AI, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical sectors, as well as resource and consumer sectors for future investment opportunities[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the financial, pharmaceutical, petroleum, and coal industries[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact recovery[4]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260126 转债建议同时关注高胜率顺周期标的 2026 年 01 月 26 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-26 证券分析师 陈伯铭 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260119-20260123）》 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 2026-01-25 相关研究 《周观：新的债市震荡区间形成（2026 年第 4 期）》 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（0119－0123）海外方面黄金似乎正在经历一场"完美风 暴"，周涨幅达到 8.4%+，无论公共部门还是私人部门都在积极 配置黄金以应对全球新的地缘逻辑，公共部门"挤出效应"显著， 因此在央行（尤其新兴市场国家）购金潮回落趋势确认、联储货 币政策转向、财政强支出剧本（部分依赖于宽货币）逆转前，很 难给出金价迎来拐点的结论；迎来驻点的概率是否较大？我们 认为这主要取决于中期的"机会成本"，即会否出现其他资产的 风险调整后收益率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the construction and building materials sectors, with specific recommendations for several companies [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation between traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth industries, particularly in the context of improving real estate transaction data and liquidity in the market [12][19]. - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with price increases observed in waterproofing materials, aluminum formwork, and engineering pipe materials since Q3 2025, indicating a strengthening self-repair capability within the sector [12][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for high-end materials in commercial aerospace, including high-temperature fiber materials and perovskite materials in solar wing energy systems [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction materials sector has been leading the market, driven by improved real estate transaction data and expectations of a spring rally in cyclical sectors [12]. - The report notes that from January to December 2025, the new construction area in real estate decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, but there are signs of recovery in major cities [12][19]. Key Companies and Developments - Zhejiang Weixing New Materials announced plans to acquire an 88.26% stake in Beijing Songtian Cheng for approximately 111 million yuan, aiming to enhance its product chain in municipal pipeline systems [3]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Yaxiang Integration, Zhongcai International, China Chemical, Qibin Group, and others, with target prices and expected earnings per share provided [9][38]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the cement price remained stable at 353 yuan per ton, with a significant drop in the average shipment rate to 29.5% due to seasonal factors [29]. - The glass market has shown stability, with the average price of float glass holding steady at 61 yuan per weight box, despite a year-on-year decline of 18.5% [2][29]. Emerging Trends - The report identifies a potential recovery in investment in Q1 2026, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, which may benefit cyclical sectors [17]. - The demand for electronic fabrics and cleanroom materials is expected to remain high, driven by advancements in AI and increased PCB investments [13][27]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on waterproofing and engineering pipe materials as key opportunities in the construction sector, with a positive outlook for these segments due to expected price increases and improved market conditions [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025 is under pressure, with a total of 485,186 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, which is a worsening of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous 11 months [15]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a similar trend observed in real estate development investment, which fell by 17.2% to 82,788 billion yuan [15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in the construction and real estate markets driven by macroeconomic policies, particularly in urban renewal initiatives [16]. - Key companies such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering reported year-on-year increases in new orders for Q4, indicating a positive trend in capital expenditure among leading industrial firms [16]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical recovery of the construction sector, particularly in light of supportive policies aimed at urban renewal and infrastructure development [16]. - It recommends investing in high-quality cyclical stocks and companies involved in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors, such as Roman Holdings and Honglu Steel Structure [26]. Market Performance Review - The construction decoration index rose by 1.88%, outperforming the overall A-share index, which increased by 0.83% [14]. - Notable performers in the sector included chemical engineering (+10.70%) and steel structure (+7.71%) [14]. Key Company Dynamics - Roman Holdings is projected to achieve a profit of 1.8-2 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses, driven by strong demand for computing power in major cities [19]. - China Energy Engineering reported a new contract amount of 1.45 trillion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [19].