Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 0.29%, driven by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, non-ferrous metals, and rare earth permanent magnets [1] Institutional Outlook Zheshang Securities - External shocks do not alter the bullish strategy; market rotation may lead to style changes, focusing on large financials and dividend stocks [1] - After two weeks of market performance, large financials and cyclical sectors show significant rise, while technology style weakens [1] - The recommendation is to maintain a systematic "slow bull" mindset, taking advantage of any "buying opportunities" from external shocks, and to increase allocation during dips [1] - For industry allocation, absolute return funds should focus on large financials, real estate, state-owned infrastructure, and dividend stocks; relative return styles should monitor the upward trend of the innovation index and key moving averages for operational guidance [1] Dongfang Securities - Short-term index fluctuations are intensifying, but the main trend remains upward, with a core focus on large technology [1] - The current market adjustment is viewed as part of the consolidation since late August, with future upward movement expected [1] - From an allocation perspective, the core position of the large technology sector remains unchanged, with continued interest in self-controlled sectors and cyclical sectors with good prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant volatility after the National Day holiday, influenced by public funds realizing high-yield investments and a shift towards defensive strategies in the fourth quarter to secure annual performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Public fund managers anticipate a shift to defensive strategies in Q4, as high valuation states in certain sectors have become apparent, leading to profit-taking in high-performing segments [2][4]. - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 indicates that sectors with high gains in the first three quarters typically underperform in Q4, prompting institutional investors to lock in profits or reposition towards lower-risk assets [2][6]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are accelerating portfolio adjustments in October, seeking balanced allocations, which may contribute to market corrections. The focus is on switching between high and low-performing sectors [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience a controlled adjustment, as traditional blue-chip stocks have not shown significant gains and remain below historical average valuations, suggesting that the broader market trend remains intact despite short-term fluctuations [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the fourth-quarter strategy shift, public funds are likely to favor cyclical sectors such as consumer goods, resources, and finance, while adopting a more cautious approach compared to the previous quarters [6][7]. - The performance of cyclical sectors, particularly in consumer and resource stocks, is anticipated to be strong, with new consumption trends like beauty and pet economies leading the charge [7][8]. - The dual-driven market structure of "technology" and "cyclical" is expected, with technology representing future growth and cyclical stocks benefiting from liquidity and policy improvements [8].

10月券商策略近日陆续披露。券商机构普遍认为,市场存向上动能,看好四季度和跨年行情,而科技成长主 线以及有色等顺周期方向仍是券商机构的关注重点。申万宏源认为,2026年春季前,科技产业催化显著多 于顺周期催化的格局不变,同时,科技成长可能会有中短期性价比问题,但距离长期性价比低位还有差距。 经济参考报 ...

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 今天上午，市场风格发生明显变化，科技股大幅调整，中际旭创、中芯国际、寒武纪、华虹公司等 龙头股下跌。 顺周期、高股息板块迎来反弹，白酒、煤炭、银行、保险等板块涨幅居前。四大行 ——工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行集体上涨，"股王"贵州茅台上涨2.35%。 截至午间收盘，上证指数上涨0.21%，深证成指下跌1.02%，创业板指下跌2.24%。 中信证券表示，白酒行业正处于过去三十年以来第三轮大周期的筑底阶段，结合库存、消费场景恢 复等因素，预计2025年三季度将成为行业基本面底部，最早2026年一季度有望看到动销拐点。 工程机械板块上涨，山推股份、万通液压、邵阳液压等个股上涨。 | | | 工程机械 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 3319.89 0.76% | | | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 山推股份 融 000680 | | 1 ...

10月13日，段永平在网络平台上表示："今天买了点茅台。"银河证券研报显示，头部名酒近期需求回暖，且经上半年去库后库存有所降低，以贵州茅台为 例，公司秋季十六省市场调研情况显示，9月以来贵州茅台酒终端动销环比增长约1倍，同比增长超20%，较8月进一步提振。 今天上午，市场风格发生明显变化，科技股大幅调整，中际旭创、中芯国际、寒武纪、华虹公司等龙头股下跌。顺周期、高股息板块迎来反弹，白酒、煤 炭、银行、保险等板块涨幅居前。四大行——工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行集体上涨，"股王"贵州茅台上涨2.35%。 截至午间收盘，上证指数上涨0.21%，深证成指下跌1.02%，创业板指下跌2.24%。 顺周期主线走强 今天上午，顺周期主线走强，白酒、工程机械、房地产等板块上涨。 具体看，白酒板块中，酒鬼酒、舍得酒业等个股涨幅居前。 消息面上，据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主要制造企业统计，2025年9月销售各类挖掘机19858台，同比增长25.4%。其中国内销量9249台，同比增长 21.5%；出口量10609台，同比增长29%。2025年1—9月，共销售挖掘机174039台，同比增长18.1%；其中国内销量898 ...

今天上午，市场风格发生明显变化，科技股大幅调整，中际旭创、中芯国际、寒武纪、华虹公司等龙头股下跌。顺周期、高股息板块迎来反弹，白酒、煤 炭、银行、保险等板块涨幅居前。四大行——工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行集体上涨，"股王"贵州茅台上涨2.35%。 截至午间收盘，上证指数上涨0.21%，深证成指下跌1.02%，创业板指下跌2.24%。 顺周期主线走强 今天上午，顺周期主线走强，白酒、工程机械、房地产等板块上涨。 具体看，白酒板块中，酒鬼酒、舍得酒业等个股涨幅居前。 | | | 白酒 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 3053.91 2.97% | | | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 酒鬼酒 融 000799 | | 63.75 | 7.02% | 207亿 | | 王得漫业 融 600702 | | 62.23 | 6.92% | 207亿 | | 泸州老窖 ■ 000568 | | 132.76 | 4.29% | 1951亿 | | 金徽酒 ...

Group 1 - Antai Technology's products have been applied in China's "artificial sun" EAST project, with a contract for the EAST filter modification expected in 2025 [2] - Bloom Energy signed a $5 billion contract for hydrogen energy and fuel cell systems [2] - The company Xin Kai Lai is participating in the upcoming "Bay Chip Exhibition" [2] Group 2 - The company Yu Gui Holdings expects a net profit growth of 86.87%-109.11% year-on-year for the third quarter, driven by cost advantages and rising product prices in the ore sector [3] - The company New Cai Fu announced a $1.054 billion acquisition of Jin Nan Magnetic Materials, focusing on key components for micro-special motors, with over 60% of oil-bearing bearing capacity ranking in the global top three [3] - The company Daya Energy is undergoing strategic restructuring under the guidance of the Henan provincial government [3] Group 3 - The company Jin An Guo Ji is a leading domestic copper-clad laminate manufacturer, producing various types of PCB products [4] - The company Shangong Shenbei plans to participate in the bankruptcy reorganization investment of the US company ICON, which specializes in the design and production of dual-seat sports aircraft [4] - The company De Gu Te intends to acquire 100% of Haojing Technology, covering the entire chain from IT infrastructure to business empowerment [4] Group 4 - The company Hai Ma Automobile focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of automobiles and powertrains [5] - The company Fa Er Sheng is involved in optical communication, with products applicable in operator networks and broadcasting [5] - The company Bao Tai Long is a leading player in the coal chemical industry in Heilongjiang and a leader in the graphene sector [5] Group 5 - The company Chengxing Co. is a domestic leader in phosphate production, with a focus on all-solid-state battery key materials [6] - The company Mei Yan Ji Xiang operates seven hydropower stations in the Meizhou area of Guangdong [6] - The company Zhong Chi Holdings is undergoing a public transfer of 24.73% of its shares by the Yangtze Environmental Group [6]

此前，多位知名主动权益基金经理对华新水泥已有布局。2025年基金半年报显示，截至6月末，基金经 理杨鑫鑫管理的工银创新动力、刘莉莉管理的富国研究精选、范妍管理的富国稳健增长、董辰管理的华 泰柏富利等均有百万股以上的持仓。 另外，玻璃龙头旗滨集团近期也获得了多位知名基金经理的增持。截至9月25日，基金经理郑澄然管理 的广发高端制造新进入旗滨集团的前十大股东序列，持股数量为3182.09万股。2025年基金半年报显 示，该基金6月末尚未有旗滨集团的持仓。 近期顺周期板块表现亮眼，吸引了投资者的广泛关注。值得注意的是，三季度，知名基金经理朱少醒管 理的"独门基"富国天惠LOF增持了水泥龙头华新水泥，玻璃龙头旗滨集团也获得了知名基金经理杨锐 文、郑澄然的增持。 业内机构认为，近期商品市场反弹主要由"反内卷"政策预期升温驱动，尤其在建材行业政策明确产能管 控后，市场信心有所修复。当前商品市场仍处于"强预期、弱现实"的反复博弈阶段，后续"反内卷"政策 仍有期待空间。 朱少醒增持水泥龙头 近期，部分上市公司因回购股份披露了前十大股东持股情况。值得注意的是，多位知名主动权益基金经 理管理的公募产品现身上市公司前十大股东名单， ...

Group 1: Investment Activity - Notable fund manager Zhu Shaoxing's "Dumeng Fund" Fu Guo Tian Hui LOF increased its stake in cement leader Huaxin Cement, holding 9.781 million shares as of September 30, up from 500,000 shares at the end of June [2][3] - Glass leader Qibin Group also saw increased holdings from well-known fund managers, with Zheng Chengran's fund entering the top ten shareholders with 31.82 million shares [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The recent rebound in the commodity market is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in the building materials sector where capacity control policies have been clarified [5][6] - The current commodity market is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, indicating potential for future policy developments to impact market sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction materials sector, including cement and glass, has shown significant performance, with Huaxin Cement's stock price increasing over 70% since July and Qibin Group's stock rising over 42% [2][4] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, which may positively influence the performance of traditional building materials like cement and coatings [5][6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points but faced a pullback, leading to increased market volatility. The outlook remains optimistic for a systematic "slow bull" market, with potential adjustments viewed as opportunities for increased allocation [1][4][58] - The report suggests a strategic focus on large financials, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, while tactical operations should monitor the performance of the ChiNext Index and key moving averages [1][5][59] Market Overview - The major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase of 0.37% over the week, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market saw declines of 3.86% and 2.85% respectively [12][56] - The report highlights a significant rise in cyclical sectors, with non-ferrous metals up by 4.35%, and coal and electricity sectors also performing well. Conversely, technology sectors showed weakness, with declines in media, electronics, and communications [15][57] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.59 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity. The margin trading balance also continued to rise, reaching 2.44 trillion yuan [24][29] - The report notes that the stock ETF saw a net inflow of 10.4 billion yuan, with the securities ETF leading in inflows, while the medical ETF experienced the largest outflow [31][39] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates that if the ChiNext Index does not recover its upward trend in the short term, it may undergo a weekly level consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index, having formed a five-wave structure, is expected to continue its upward trajectory unless external shocks disrupt this trend [4][58] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of key sectors, particularly large financials and cyclical stocks, as the market may shift focus away from technology [58][59]