点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】A股牛市历史复盘及前景展望——解密牛市系列之一 基本面回升是牛市形成的核心驱动力，流动性宽松与产业趋势往往形成共振效应。当基本面全面改善时， 通常催生全面牛市，而在基本面结构性改善阶段，若与流动性宽松、产业趋势形成共振，同样可能孕育牛 市。展望未来，基本面修复进程或将呈现温和且渐进的特征，宏微观流动性共振与产业升级有望驱动市场 上涨。 （张宇生/郭磊） 2025-05-18 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【金工】小市值风格仍占优——金融工程市场跟踪周报20250519 上周A股延续震荡表现，主要宽基指数量能有所收缩。交易情绪方面，伴随量能收缩，截至上周五 （2025.05.16，下同）主要宽基指数量能择时指标 ...

Group 1 - The article distinguishes between comprehensive bull markets and structural bull markets in the A-share market, highlighting their different market characteristics [1] - Since 2000, there have been four bull markets in A-shares: comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015, and structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 [1][3] - Comprehensive bull markets are characterized by higher average daily increases in the Shanghai Composite Index and market turnover rates compared to structural bull markets, with a greater proportion of stocks rising over 100% and equity funds yielding over 100% [1][3] Group 2 - The core driver of bull markets is the recovery of fundamentals, with liquidity easing and industrial trends often creating a resonance effect [3] - Comprehensive bull markets typically arise when fundamentals improve broadly, as seen in the 2005-2007 bull market, while structural bull markets can occur during periods of structural improvement in fundamentals combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends [3][4] - The 2005-2007 bull market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 502%, with nominal GDP maintaining double-digit growth and A-share net profit growth rebounding from -5.8% to 63.5% [4] Group 3 - The 2013-2015 bull market was driven by a combination of monetary easing in China and the U.S., along with the influx of leveraged funds, resulting in a 164% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 were influenced by improvements in fundamentals and inflows of northbound capital, with the latter period seeing a 49% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The article suggests that the A-share market may enter a new cycle of structural bull markets driven by the three-dimensional resonance of fundamentals, industry, and capital [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the recovery of fundamentals is expected to be gradual, with macro and micro liquidity resonating with industrial upgrades to drive market growth [5] - The potential for simultaneous monetary easing in China and the U.S. could lead to a shift of domestic assets towards equity markets, supported by a slowdown in IPOs and restrictions on shareholder reductions [5] - The article posits that while a comprehensive bull market may be unlikely due to the broad scope of the A-share market, new incremental capital could drive a structural bull market, with 2025 being a potential starting point [5]

期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 走势评级： 震荡 宋婧琪 从业资格证号：F03100886 投资咨询证号：Z0021165 联系电话：0571-28132632 邮箱：songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 国际波动继续，趋势尚未企稳，单边建议观望或日平 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 04 月 08 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息： 股指盘面回顾： 核心逻辑小结： 特朗普关税政策超预期后，近期国际金融市场恐慌情绪较浓，其中美股等西 方股指领跌，而 A 股由于投资者结构更偏国内，清明节前下跌幅度较小。短 期来看，清明节前股指行情呈现低波、缩量等余温阶段特征，考虑到外盘波 动较大，叠加各指数估值仍处于阶段性高位，本周出现急跌符合预期，短期 尚未企稳，建议投资者继续维持防御。中期来看，A 股牛市起点的底层逻辑 并未发生改变，短期悲观预期拉满后，后续关税等外部因素的影响更趋向于 利空 ...