戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the upcoming "April Decision" as a critical period for economic and A-share performance verification, highlighting concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. and a cautious narrative surrounding AI advancements [1][2]. Short-term Adjustment Triggers - The "April Decision" window is approaching, with the first quarter reports for the economy and A-shares set to validate market fundamentals. China's export growth is expected to naturally decline, and the impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. The effectiveness of fiscal policies remains to be seen [2][3]. - Concerns are rising regarding the U.S. potentially imposing additional tariffs on China, which could exacerbate economic volatility and suppress risk appetite in the market [2][3]. - A temporary lull in AI advancements is noted, with cautious narratives emerging about the slow progress of large models and the lack of blockbuster applications. This has led to a phase of adjustment in the tech sector [2][3]. Key Influencing Factors of the "April Decision" - The performance verification period is crucial, with expectations for revenue and net profit improvements in the domestic AI computing power industry due to high capital expenditures from internet giants and operators. However, the market's pessimistic expectations for performance reports are unlikely to lead to significant adjustments [3][4]. - The anticipated economic verification in April is expected to have limited marginal impact on the market, as the current expectations for cyclical improvement are low [4]. - The release of a U.S. tariff report on April 1 and subsequent actions may limit the significance of the "bad news" effect, with ongoing concerns about potential tariff increases affecting market sentiment [4][5]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry is seen as a process where large models and computing power mutually promote breakthroughs in applications. The current phase is characterized by waiting for blockbuster applications, with market adjustments expected to be limited in scope and duration [5][6]. - The market is currently focused on the potential for application innovations, with the possibility of new highs in technology following the realization of these applications [6][7]. Defensive Investment Strategy - In the second quarter of 2025, a defensive investment mindset is favored, with a focus on high-dividend assets that offer both absolute and relative returns. The technology sector is expected to maintain its upward trend, with continued interest in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy investment opportunities [6][7]. - The shift of Hong Kong stocks towards A-share characteristics is noted, with high-dividend stocks and internet companies in Hong Kong expected to perform well in their respective styles [7].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ：（3.10-3.18），全球大类资产表现分化，权益>大宗>债券。全球大类资产交易 主线仍然围绕"美国衰退交易"，但程度较3月初有所缓和：10Y美债利率和美元指数延续回落趋势但幅度显著缓和，美 股仍弱于全球股市但下跌幅度同样有所缓和。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 特朗普2.0 难以逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋势）三大底层逻辑，甚至一定程度上加大全球政治经济不确 定性。战略层面，全球资产配置仍是反脆弱的"杠铃策略"。一端是确定性稳健资产：（1）债券：债务收缩期， 中国利率债调整后再次迎来配置良机；（2）权益：债务收缩期，战略配置中资股杠铃策略（红利+科技）、泛东 南亚股市；（3）另类：黄金的超国家主权信用价值是应对逆全球化新投资范式的必需配置。另一端是高收益高 波动资产：把握AI产业趋势下的美股及中国AI产业链基础设施建设向下游软件应用扩散的丰富机会。特朗普上台 后的政策节 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various investment opportunities and risks associated with different sectors. Core Insights - The report highlights three major industry trends for the year: breakthroughs in private technology, defensive assets under stable policies, and safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Private Technology Breakthroughs - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in China's technology sector, particularly in internet leaders, computing power, and robotics. The low-cost AI wave brought by DeepSeek is expected to significantly reduce AI deployment costs, benefiting downstream industries such as internet, new energy vehicles, and robotics. However, the overall diffusion of these technologies is limited, and investors should avoid excessively high valuations in small-cap tech stocks [6][7]. 2. Defensive Assets - Under stable macroeconomic policies, defensive assets such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks (e.g., utilities) are highlighted. The report anticipates that the overall profitability of A-shares will face significant growth pressure in 2025 due to new capacity pressures in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, compounded by global trade risks. Dividend-paying assets are seen as stable with low valuations, providing strong safety margins [7][8]. 3. Safe-Haven Assets - The report discusses the potential rise in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, non-ferrous metals, and military-related industries due to increased geopolitical tensions and the "America First" policy under Trump 2.0. The weakening of the dollar and rising long-term inflation may enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset. Additionally, the demand for construction machinery and equipment is expected to remain strong as countries expand their manufacturing capabilities [8].

Global Macro Trends - Global stock indices showed divergence from February 24 to March 5, with European and Hong Kong stocks leading gains while U.S. stocks lagged behind [8][9] - U.S. economic data suggests potential stagflation risks, putting pressure on U.S. stocks, while China's government work report indicates a continuation of fiscal stimulus and support for the real estate and stock markets [9][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving investment landscape characterized by three underlying logics: rising anti-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and the trend of AI industries [3][10] - The strategy emphasizes a mix of low-risk, stable assets (such as bonds, Chinese equities, and gold) and high-yield, high-volatility assets (such as U.S. stocks and the Chinese AI industry) to maximize returns while providing safety margins [11][10] Focus Data and Events - Key economic indicators and events are scheduled from March 10 to March 21, including China's February M2 growth rate and new RMB loans, which are critical for assessing economic health [12][13] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global economic data releases and central bank decisions, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [13][12] Focus Charts - The report includes dynamic tracking of global asset classes, reflecting tight dollar liquidity and increasing financial pressure in the U.S. [14][3] - Key indicators such as the LIBOR-OIS spread and the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index are monitored to gauge market conditions and economic expectations [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of systematic and practical approaches in investment strategies, highlighting the need for adjustments in response to market conditions while waiting for industry catalysts to emerge [4][17]. Weekly Review - The discussion around price comparison has gained traction, indicating that adjustments in market strategies are healthy. The focus is on waiting for industry catalysts before making significant moves [4]. - The expectation of an economic recession in the U.S. has led to a notable decline in both U.S. stock and bond yields, with an additional 10% tariff imposed on Chinese goods [7]. Special Research - The current trends in the AI industry resemble the early stages of mobile internet development from 2010 to 2015, rather than the widespread application seen between 2013 and 2015. The report aims to systematically review the mobile internet market during 2010-2015, drawing comparisons and insights for future developments [9]. - The report concludes that there are opportunities for undervalued sectors to reverse and rotate, suggesting a potential shift in market leadership among different segments [10]. Market Data Summary - Various indices and their performance metrics are provided, showing fluctuations in closing prices, percentage changes, and valuation ratios such as PE and PB across different regions and sectors [11]. - The macro environment favors mid-term growth over value, indicating that a comprehensive high-low market trend is unlikely. The article suggests that the key verification period for the macro environment will be in March-April, with a focus on observing changes in leading sectors [12].