贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/26 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3318.25 35.77 1304.00 1071.00 64.92 9725.50 变化 15.75 -0.30 9.00 2.00 0.55 7.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.70 1.17 1.37 145.27 - 变化 -0.27 0.01 0.00 0.38 - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 15561.77 1276.80 953.39 14917.07 1378.88 1 1 变化 62.58 19.97 -2.29 39.58 0.00 -1.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 甲醇 | 震荡偏 24.07 强 ⼯率 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 31 元/吨至 2419 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 货价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2650 元/吨。多头持仓增加 12386 手至 54.78 万手，空头持 仓增加 16030 手至 61.67 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.65%，环比上涨 0.76%。海外甲醇开工率 55.11%， 环比下降 15.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。 中国甲醇 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated strongly, with limited increase compared to the previous day. The spot price center moved slightly up, with electric carbon rising 300 to 60,200. The spot price was still lower than the futures price, and the delivery loss had significantly narrowed, but the exchange warehouse receipts were still decreasing. Attention should be paid to the delivery problem of the 07 contract in the short term [12]. - The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica ore both increased, and the price center of cathode materials also moved up. The price - cut tide in the industry chain had暂缓, and with the improvement of the current macro - environment, the market bullish sentiment was increasing. The short - term stop - falling sign of lithium carbonate was obvious, but due to the high supply and high inventory of lithium carbonate, the rebound space of lithium carbonate futures was expected to be limited [12]. Group 3: Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,311 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 360 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,700 - 60,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,200 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,100 - 59,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,600 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate spot market continued the pattern of oversupply, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. The market had sufficient tradable goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The demand side had no significant incremental expectation, and downstream cathode material enterprises maintained a cautious procurement strategy, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The lithium carbonate price had approached the industry average cost line, and the market had entered a volatile stage of long - short game. The slight rebound of the futures price had a certain conduction effect on the spot market, driving the transaction center of point - price trading based on the futures price to move up slightly, but the overall market sentiment was still cautious [13]. - The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on organizing the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns from July to December 2025. Local governments should implement the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, set up special areas for trading in old cars for new ones in the new energy vehicle consumption season event venues, and launch more marketable new energy vehicle models. They should promote the reform pilot of automobile circulation and consumption, combine the new energy vehicle consumption season activities with the pilot construction work, plan to carry out special promotions and test - drive experiences for intelligent connected new energy vehicles, and promote the commercial application of high - level intelligent driving cars under safe and legal conditions. They should also create diversified post - market consumption scenarios for automobiles and extend the automobile consumption chain [13][14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年6月26日 4 基差 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 2、基差：现货13750，基差-20 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费高位 • 2、原料价格偏强 • 3、现货价格抗跌 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预 ...

周三，玻璃、纯碱主力合约呈震荡小幅上涨格局，分别收涨0.3%至1017元/吨，收涨0.43%至1166元/ 吨。当天，内盘原油价格继续大幅下跌，油化工板块跌幅有所收窄，化工品价格波动逐渐回归到基本供 需关系。 纯碱供应处于较高水平，碱厂库存面临去化难题 近期，纯碱的供应量一直处于较高的水平，并且后续产能恢复以及新产能投产所带来的压力依然存在。 最新数据显示，纯碱开工率达到了86.12%，整体开工情况保持稳定。上周纯碱的产量为75.47万吨，相 较于前一周增加了1.46万吨，涨幅为1.97%。在利润方面，上周合成碱的利润呈现出分化态势，其中联 碱法的利润为99.50元/吨，较前一周下跌了40元/吨；而氨碱法的利润为25.20元/吨，较前一周增加了 4.50元/吨。 瑞达期货：纯碱预计供给依旧宽松，价格将继续承压 供应端来看，国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上涨，但整体上涨速度趋缓，市场供应依旧宽松，国内纯 碱利润下滑，但目前利润依旧为正，由此反馈出纯碱产量增速将进一步放缓，后续冷修有望增加，需求 端玻璃产线无太大变化，整体产量小幅增加，维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明显。光伏玻璃整体出现需求 下滑迹象，预计继续下滑，对于 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 25 日 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面低开高走，日内拉涨近 3%。随着期货盘面的反弹，现货市场情绪转 为高涨，叠加出口集港加速，企业出货增加，部分装置出现停售。基本面来看， 近期出口集港数量增加，国内尿素供需宽松的压力有所释放。供应端近期河南装 置有临时停车情况，肥易通统计口径尿素产量短期降至日产 20 万吨以下，6 月 7 月高温天气影响装置多发临检。需求端，买涨不买跌情绪影响，反弹后市场备货 积极性增加，农需继续跟进中，复合肥工厂终端走货不畅，处于秋季肥淡季拿货 阶段，复合肥市场不温不火。本期库存去化，主要系港口法检的开放，企业陆续 出货集港，缓解厂内库存压力。整体来看，今日盘面反弹受多重原因影响，出口 港检的开放提振市场情绪，供需目前依然维持宽松状态，后续供需缺口还需出口 缓解，关注近期国内尿素出口情况，短期内价格预计震荡偏强。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗普表示伊朗对 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2620至2680区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-62，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.01万吨，上周1.55万吨，周环比减少34.84%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比 减少63.93%。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹。产业链上，矿价继续坚挺，矿山继续挺价，但镍铁价格继续下行，国内镍 铁企业亏损程度进一步扩大，减产预期加强，倒逼矿价的可能性更大。不锈钢交易所仓单继续流出，库 存上升，需求偏弱。新能源汽车产销数据较好，电池向（6镍）倾向，有利于镍的需求提升。中长线过 剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货119000，基差1550，偏多 3、库存：LME库存203928，-216，上交所仓单21581，+103，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2507：震荡偏弱运行，重心下移。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚挺，矿山挺价，镍铁 ...

Core Points - The company is holding its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on July 8, 2025, at 14:30 [5] - The meeting will combine on-site and online voting methods, with shareholders required to register and provide necessary documentation to participate [1][3] - A key agenda item is the proposal to engage in commodity futures hedging and trading to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations, particularly for industrial silicon [5][10] Meeting Procedures - Shareholders and authorized representatives have the right to speak, inquire, and vote during the meeting, with specific registration requirements for speaking [2] - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with each share granting one vote [3][5] - The meeting will be presided over by the chairman, Mr. Ji Jinshu, and will include a verification process for attendance and voting eligibility [5] Proposal Details - The company aims to conduct futures hedging and trading to reduce the impact of raw material price volatility on production costs [6] - The maximum margin required for these activities will not exceed a specified limit and will be funded from the company's own resources [6] - The proposal includes risk analysis and control measures to ensure that trading activities are conducted prudently and in compliance with regulations [7][9] Risk Management - The company has identified several risks associated with futures trading, including market, funding, internal control, technical, and policy risks [7][8] - A comprehensive risk management framework has been established, including adherence to internal policies and regular monitoring of trading activities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have weakened, raising questions about whether gold can maintain its position above the 3300 USD mark [1] Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rate cuts [1] - There is a focus on the performance of gold, specifically its ability to hold above the 3300 USD threshold amidst changing market conditions [1] - The article invites participation in a trading group aimed at capitalizing on market opportunities, highlighting a sense of urgency with limited availability [1]