Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum doesn't change much, with consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season. High prices suppress actual consumption, and attention should be paid to the over - expected inventory increase after price hikes. The macro - direction is upward, but a post - sentiment - release correction should be watched for [6]. - The supply surplus situation of alumina remains unchanged. Social inventory is increasing, and price lacks continuous upward momentum. Overseas ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and there is a chance for sell - hedging after the rally [8]. Group 3: Summary by Category Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,930 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,130 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 205 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 24,280 yuan/ton, closed at 24,360 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,750 yuan/ton and a low of 24,065 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 639,637 lots, and positions were 230,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 684,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous period; warrant inventory was 87,930 tons, up 3,726 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 501,750 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 7, 2026, SMM alumina prices were 2,655 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 2,585 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,680 yuan/ton in Henan, 2,745 yuan/ton in Guangxi, 2,785 yuan/ton in Guizhou, and FOB price in Australia was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 7, 2026, the alumina main contract opened at 2,822 yuan/ton, closed at 2,938 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton (4.97%), with a high of 2,975 yuan/ton and a low of 2,822 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,854,026 lots, and positions were 494,082 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 7, 2026, Baotai's civil raw aluminum purchase price was 18,000 yuan/ton, and mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 18,300 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. ADC12 Baotai's quote was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - Aluminum alloy social inventory was 70,200 tons, and in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,880 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 120 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The price of corn and starch futures rose in tandem on Wednesday. The spot market in the Northeast remained stable, while the price in the North China was generally stable with minor adjustments. The price in the sales area declined slightly. The short - term focus is on the price pressure around 2270, and the weekly indicators continue to have a bearish expectation [2]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a one - week high on Wednesday. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated higher with an increase of over 1%. The bean meal trading volume increased, and the inventory is expected to rise again. The range - bound thinking remains unchanged, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next week [2]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Wednesday. The estimated production of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil in the 25/26 year is provided. Domestic three major oil futures prices all rose, and an oil price range - bound thinking is adopted. Attention is paid to the USDA supply - demand report on January 13th and the visit of the Canadian president to China in mid - early January [2]. - Eggs: The main contract of eggs fluctuated strongly on Wednesday, with a slight daily increase. The spot price mostly rose, and the short - term spot price continued the slight rebound trend. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the main contract can break through the long - term moving average [2][3]. - Pigs: The live - hog futures fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday. The national live - hog price mostly rose, with local declines. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the short - term pig price can continue to rebound. It is recommended to set a dynamic stop - profit in the short term and pay attention to the technical performance of the long - term moving average of the live - hog futures main contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Market Information - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in January at $915.64 per ton, lower than that in December. The export tax will remain at $74 per ton, and a 10% special export tax is also levied [4]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 year was lowered by 1% to 46 million tons, with an estimated range of 44.8 - 47.2 million tons. The current planting area is estimated to be 16.7 million hectares [4]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from late December to mid - December 2025, among 50 important production materials, 18 product prices rose, 28 declined, and 4 remained flat. The price of live hogs (ternary) increased by 1.7% [4]. - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13%, and the production decreased by 8.07% [4]. - OPEC+ agreed to maintain stable oil production in Q1 2026. The organization had agreed to suspend production increases in January, February, and March last November. The next meeting will be held on February 1st [5]. 3. Variety Spreads - Charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, bean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live hogs are presented [7][8][12][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, and the upstream operation rate has steadily increased. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH units still have the expectation of maintenance, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically. [2] - Downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally have resumed production. The overall operation rate of powder has increased, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to rise. [2] - Although the profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable and the operation rate is expected to remain stable, the operation rate of PO has slightly decreased due to the reduction of some units. In the future, propylene is expected to rise further, squeezing the downstream profitability, and the overall increase in the support of the demand side may be limited. [2] - The international oil price has回调, while the propane price remains strong and still provides support. The sharp rise in the futures prices of the coal series has also boosted the cost support of the olefin series. However, due to the limited improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound space may be limited. [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand have improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. Driven by sentiment, the short - term market will mainly fluctuate strongly. Wait for the marginal unit maintenance. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The data includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis of propylene in East China and Shandong, the price difference between the propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the price difference between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China. [6][9][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operation Rate - The data involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefin production capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit. [18][21][28] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operation Rate - The data includes the production profit and operation rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. [37][38][45] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The data contains the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder. [63]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton yarn futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase of 0.05% to 20,995.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1]. Market Information - As of January 7, the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained stable at 37, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Valentin Olah from StoneX Risk Management indicates that ICE cotton prices are catching up with the rising prices of Chinese cotton and cotton yarn, and are beginning to price in expectations of reduced planting areas for the year [1]. - For the week of December 29 to January 2, the average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 21,410 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 203 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1]. - The average spot price of Indian 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 21,170 yuan/ton, up by 76 yuan/ton week-on-week [1]. - The average spot price of Vietnamese 32-count pure cotton combed yarn was 20,920 yuan/ton, which increased by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The trading speed of apple production areas is differentiated, with transactions improving in Shaanxi and Shanxi, but overall slow. The low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales. The market is waiting for the Spring Festival stocking to drive up sales [2][3][4] - 红枣: Although the current year's production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant due to sufficient inventory. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second-grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi-commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price opened high and closed low. Different production areas have different trading speeds. The consumption peak season may drive up sales, but the low-price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress the sales of apples. The excellent fruit rate is low, the hardness of cold storage fruits is insufficient, and the delivery cost is high [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The Spring Festival stocking season is approaching, but the low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the 红枣 2605 contract was 9150 yuan/ton, a change of +175 yuan/ton or +1.95% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Analysis - The 红枣 futures price closed higher at a high level. The acquisition work in the production area has basically ended. Although the production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new and old stocks of 红枣 are sufficient. The sales speed in the sales area is average, and the price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to the downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak season consumption changes [8]

Report Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has pushed up steel prices strongly, and the prices of glass, soda ash, and double silicon have shown an upward trend [1][3] - The supply - demand contradictions of glass and soda ash are different, and attention should be paid to production line changes and new project progress [1] - The fundamentals of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon have different characteristics, and factors such as cost and demand need to be concerned [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures and spot prices rose significantly. Although some production lines have been cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The purchase of futures - spot traders may relieve inventory pressure, and the market expects a peak season after the Spring Festival [1] - Soda Ash: The futures and spot prices of soda ash rose. The rigid demand from downstream is limited, but the enthusiasm of futures - spot traders and traders has increased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1] Double Silicon - Silicomanganese: Affected by the overall rise of the black series, the silicomanganese futures rose. The South African government plans to impose tariffs on unprocessed manganese ore, which may increase the cost. The current fundamentals are not good, with high production and large inventory growth. After the New Year's Day, the resumption of steel mills may repair the rigid demand, and the low port inventory of manganese ore provides support [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is running strongly. Traders are active in purchasing during the January steel tenders, and the sales are good. The fundamentals' contradictions have been significantly alleviated, the factory inventory has decreased, and the rigid demand is expected to improve after the resumption of steel mills. The implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi may increase the cost [3] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The methanol futures dropped rapidly in the morning due to the news of Sierbang's shutdown in February and stabilized in the afternoon. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short - term driven by cost support and inventory reduction expectations. The port inventory may enter a destocking cycle in the first quarter [1]. LLDPE and PP - Upstream producers continue to hold prices firm, and spot prices have followed the futures up. The market has supply contraction expectations due to rumors. The short - term price of LLDPE and PP is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, there is an inventory accumulation risk around the Spring Festival, and its rebound space is limited [6]. LPG - No specific view is given in the provided content about the future trend of LPG, only price, inventory and other data are presented [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the upward space of the price is limited. For glass, although the spot price has risen slightly driven by the futures, the upward space of the market is also restricted, and the market may return to a weak - reality logic [11]. Natural Rubber - The cost of rubber is supported by the rising raw material prices in Thailand, but the downstream's weak buying power restricts the upward movement of rubber prices. Future attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable and weak in the short - term due to oversupply. The PVC market is mainly driven by emotional fluctuations, and there is a risk of a fall after reaching a high level [14]. Urea - The short - term urea price is expected to be strong and volatile, affected by the Indian tender and macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of production devices and downstream demand [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX and PTA, the supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate. For MEG, there is a large inventory accumulation expectation in the near - term. Short - fiber's absolute price has weak driving force, and bottle - chip will follow the cost end [16]. Crude Oil - The international oil price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the long - term supply surplus pressure and large inventory accumulation of refined oil products [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2605 closed at 2267, down 1.13% from the previous day; MA2609 closed at 2247, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread decreased by 62.26%. The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 44.768, up 5.94%; the port inventory was 153.7 tons, up 4.05%; the social inventory was 198.5, up 4.47% [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 77.67, down 0.41%, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate was 79.35, down 7.37% [1]. LLDPE and PP - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all increased. The L15 spread and PP15 spread also changed [4]. - **Inventory**: PE social inventory increased by 2.04%, PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.99%, and trade - related inventory decreased [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.72%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.63%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 0.17%, and the powder operating rate increased by 2.04% [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. changed. The price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.6% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The price of styrene in East China increased slightly, and the EB cash - flow also changed [6]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the styrene inventory decreased by 4.7%. The operating rate of some products changed [6]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, etc. changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio was 24.3, up 0.91%, and the port inventory was 214 tons, down 8.41% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%, and the downstream PDH operating rate was 75.1, down 1.65% [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions and futures contracts changed, and the basis also changed [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.07%, and the inventory increased. The glass daily melting volume decreased [11]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were presented [11]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis decreased by 7.50% [12]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rate of domestic tires changed [12]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 4.48%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the SHFE remained almost unchanged [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased. The downstream operating rates of both decreased [14]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions changed, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.8% [14]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [15]. - **Upstream and Spot Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed [16]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 0.7%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed [16]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [17]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between contracts changed [17]. - **Product Spread**: The spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [17].

Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]

2026 年 01 月 08 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260108 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260108 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF02-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -14 | 3 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 116315 | 165849 | -49534 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 530 | 6, 535 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 126634 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 08 日 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1164 | ୧୫ | 6.2% | | | | 12605 | 1773 | 118 | 7. 1% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 898934 | 499345 | -2636 | | | | 12605 | 45483 | 38416 | 1678 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1403 | 1403 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1153 | 1153 | 0 | | | | 吕梁中疏肥煤 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提 ...