（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月12日，上期所原油主力合约收跌1.27%，报436元/桶。沪金主力合约收涨1.24%，报 970元/克，沪银主力合约收涨4.56%，报15008元/千克。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 11 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，碳酸锂、沪银 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 下游需求增速放缓 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 【行情分析】 尿素盘面高开低走，尾盘收跌。现货价格涨跌互现，市场受期货盘面情 绪影响，略显僵持。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，上游装置停车与复产并 存，气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中，日产数据依然在 19-20 万吨之间运行， 预计中下旬将有减量。由于原料端价格的上涨，复合肥成品价格同样居高，导 致终端畏高情绪。工厂走货以前期订单发运为主，本期开工负荷增速大幅下 降，环比增长 0.09%，依然同比偏低 2.97%，虽有一定的回升空间，但受制于原 料端高企的价格及终端的疲软心态，预计复产进程有限，若本周华北地区大雪 天气，可能将影响发运，拖延后续备货节奏。本期库存继续去化，环比去化 4.36%，目前的供需逻辑相对紧平衡，预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。昨日 美联储降息后，期货市场涨跌互现，对尿素影响较小，目前看来尿素驱动不 足，日产降低缓慢，而需求增量有限，预计盘面将弱势盘整。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1651 元/吨开盘, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利多驱动不足，煤焦持续下挫 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1491.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.54 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 631 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。近期，原材料焦煤基本面预期疲弱，拖累焦炭期货弱势运行， 但考虑到 12 月国内重要会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预 期，焦炭下跌持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽 松。 焦煤：12 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1035 点，日内下跌 4.39%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.10 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3764 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, the PTA market showed an upward trend with a strengthening basis, while the MEG market declined with a weakening basis [2][4]. - The PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate, and its inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents PTA - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.69%, and the basis strengthened to - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4645 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fell below $62, and OPEC+ maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces reduced their positions [3]. - **Trend Expectation**: The previously overhauled PTA capacity will gradually restart, and the inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The downstream polyester start - up rate decreased slightly from a high level, and the terminal demand is expected to weaken further. The PTA processing fee is around 170 yuan, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate in the short term [3]. MEG - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 2.23%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3613 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal both declined. The weekly inventory at East China MEG ports totaled 75.5 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There were differences among long - side and short - side main forces [4]. - **Trend Expectation**: MEG continued to accumulate inventory, with a reduced accumulation rate, but the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants have been shut down for maintenance, temporarily relieving the supply - side pressure. However, the maintenance volume at the low absolute price is lower than expected. There are still expected new capacity put into production in the future, and the MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the PTA market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including inventory accumulation expectations and geopolitical issues affecting oil prices [1][2][3] - As of December 9, the average price of PTA for 2025 is reported at 4754 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% primarily due to falling oil prices and new PTA production capacity impacting market sentiment [1] - The WTI crude oil price has decreased from nearly 75 USD/barrel in June to approximately 58 USD/barrel, indicating a weak overall market for crude oil in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Short-term market analysis suggests that while PTA processing fees are low and supply-side pressures are easing, there is a weak expectation for demand, leading to a potential inventory accumulation in December [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the PTA market from March to May next year, anticipating a recovery in demand as no new PTA production capacity is expected to come online [3] - Seasonal patterns indicate that demand for PTA will decline in January and February, leading to increased inventory levels, but a significant recovery in demand is expected from March to May [3] Group 3 - The PX market is expected to benefit from planned maintenance of PX facilities in mainland China and other countries, which may support PTA prices [4] - Despite the anticipated strong demand for PTA in March to May 2026, the potential for a narrow decline in crude oil prices could negatively impact the PTA market [4] - Geopolitical factors, such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation, may lead to increased crude oil supply, further pressuring oil prices and potentially affecting PTA market dynamics [4]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/12/11 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,712.00 | -12.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,418.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 643,609.00 | +13508 ...

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with soybean futures (Soybean No. 2) slightly up by 1.79% to 3802.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - As of December 10, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 164,600 long positions and 146,700 short positions in Soybean No. 2, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.12 and a net position increase of 6,205 contracts [1] - The USDA reported that U.S. private exporters sold 136,000 tons of soybeans to China and 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] Group 2 - Market focus is on China's purchasing pace of U.S. soybeans, which is slow and uncertain, leading to cautious market sentiment [2] - U.S. soybean export data has significantly declined year-on-year, while drought conditions in the U.S. Midwest have eased, and South American soybean planting is progressing steadily [2] - The domestic soybean market is characterized by high inventory and high crushing volumes, indicating a loose supply-demand balance, with the market entering a "weak reality pricing" phase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports mainly present the latest data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. These data cover price changes, basis differences, and historical percentile positions, providing a basis for investors to understand market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was 9.86 on the relevant day [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: There are detailed data on spreads between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, far - month and current - month, etc. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread was - 16.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.5584, with historical percentile positions provided, indicating their relative valuation levels [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: The 15 - contract IRR was 1.6378, and the basis of different bond futures contracts had various values and changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the T basis was 1.4325 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract quarters such as the current - quarter and next - quarter, and next - quarter and far - quarter were reported. For example, the TF current - quarter minus next - quarter spread was - 0.0350 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF were - 3.3690 on 2025 - 12 - 10 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2602, AG2602, etc. showed price increases or decreases compared to the previous day. For example, the AU2602 contract price rose from 951.54 to 956.40, a 0.51% increase [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold, silver, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes. For instance, London gold rose from 4206.59 to 4227.65, a 0.50% increase [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis between gold TD and Shanghai gold futures, gold - silver ratios, etc. were presented. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was - 5.27, and the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 68.46 [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, etc. had changes. Inventory data of precious metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX also showed different trends [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 1.72% from 1483.65 to 1509.10, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 50.71% from 1948.77 to 960.51. The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 0.69% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602 (main contract) and others had price changes, and the basis of the main contract changed by 41.01% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 0.01%, Shanghai port on - time rate decreased by 18.50%, and Shanghai port berthing increased by 5.83%. Monthly export amount increased by 8.19%. Overseas economic indicators such as the euro - zone comprehensive PMI increased by 0.57% [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2152.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.04% observed [1] - East Wu Futures indicates that the caustic soda market is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand, with no production cuts expected from alkali plants, leading to sustained supply [2] - South China Futures notes that the liquid caustic soda market in North China is facing challenges with sales, despite slight improvements in downstream demand, and prices remain low [2] Group 2 - Central Plains Futures reports that the liquid caustic soda market in Shandong is seeing slight price increases due to inventory declines, but overall supply remains ample [3] - The overall supply-demand balance for caustic soda is weak, with the 2601 contract expected to continue its downward trend [3] - The market is closely monitoring fluctuations in chlor-alkali facilities and liquid chlorine prices, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3]