1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - Finance - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Hold off from chasing high prices, wait and see [1][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range trading [1][10] - Aluminum: Reduce long positions when it rebounds to a high level [1][11] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][13] - Tin: Range trading [1][14] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Hold long positions, be cautious about new positions [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][18] - Caustic soda: Wait and see for now [1][20] - Soda ash: Wait and see for now [1][25] - Styrene: Range trading [1][20] - Rubber: Range trading [1][21] - Urea: Range trading [1][22] - Methanol: Range trading [1][24] - Polyolefins: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [1][28] - PTA: Range - bound [1][28] - Apples: Bullish - leaning range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Bearish - leaning range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Near - term contracts may adjust weakly at low levels, be cautious about chasing high prices in far - term contracts [1][32] - Eggs: Limited upside [1][33] - Corn: Hedge on rallies, be cautious about chasing high prices in the short - term; expect support in the long - term, but limited upside [1][35] - Soybean meal: Range trading [1][37] - Oils: Rebound from lows, adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [1][42] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the market situation of each product based on factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For most products, it suggests range trading or a wait - and - see approach, while for some, it gives clear long or short signals according to their specific fundamentals [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Index**: A - shares showed a volatile upward trend on Monday. The market is affected by factors such as PMI data, policy discussions, and international negotiations. The index may be range - bound in the short - term but is optimistic in the long - term [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: Treasury futures mostly rose. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. With weak profit - making effects in the bond market, the downward space for yields is limited [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand, and most market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures was strong on Monday. In the short - term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Glass**: Although the futures price has rebounded due to production line shutdown rumors, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase high prices for near - term contracts [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation in Congo (Kinshasa) needs attention. The market consumption has improved, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but in the short - term, it is necessary to beware of the impact of high prices on consumption and policy changes [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may be loose in the future. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand [14]. - **Silver**: Fed officials' dovish remarks have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [16]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the gold price has rebounded due to interest rate cut expectations and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jixiawo lithium mine [18]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to policy and cost changes [18]. - **Caustic soda**: The alumina industry may affect the demand for caustic soda. The supply is high in winter. The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: The recent rebound is due to the "blending oil" narrative, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20]. - **Rubber**: The overseas raw material price has fallen, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The demand for tires is limited. The rubber price may continue to decline without strong positive factors [21]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand has weakened, and the industrial demand has strengthened. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be range - bound [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand for methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has changed, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased. The PE contract is expected to oscillate within a range, and the PP contract is expected to be bearish - leaning [24]. - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is loose, but the strong yarn price has driven the cotton price to rebound [28]. - **PTA**: The international oil price has fallen, the PTA price has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is such that the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not significant. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. It is recommended to short near - term contracts on rallies and be cautious about far - term contracts [32]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is improving marginally. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price has rebounded, but there is still selling pressure. In the long - term, the demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [35]. - **Soybean meal**: The domestic and international soybean prices have fallen. It is recommended to conduct range trading and for spot enterprises to price the basis from November to January on dips [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term performance of oils is under pressure, but there is support in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to relevant data and reports [42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $165.44 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 190 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 170 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 180 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton and closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 128,295 lots, and the position was 105,756 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a change of -3,800 tons from the previous period. As of December 1, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 52,025 tons, a change of 275 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are entirely positive. Domestic social inventories are continuously declining, November smelting output decreased month-on-month and was significantly lower than expected, and the spot premium is continuously being repaired upwards, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. Although LME inventories are rising, overseas premiums remain high, and China's export window remains open. TC prices at home and abroad are continuously falling, and smelting comprehensive costs are starting to face losses, with supply-side pressure expected to decline in the future. The fundamentals have shifted from negative to positive, zinc is currently undervalued, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December has increased, and there is optimism about future consumption [5] Strategy - **Single-sided**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Inter-period positive spread arbitrage [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral line of 50 for nine consecutive months [1] - New orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction since July, while backlog orders have seen the largest decline in seven months, indicating a further downturn in overall manufacturing sentiment [1] Group 2 - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, reflecting market expectations for more easing measures [1] - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing in November, along with significant declines in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment, supports the bullish outlook for gold and silver prices [1] - The PMI has decreased by 0.5 percentage points, reinforcing the trend of weakening economic data and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to weak manufacturing data and increased probability of Hassett's election, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S. is reported at 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to its fastest contraction rate since July, while backlogged orders have seen the largest decline in seven months [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising above $4,290 before retreating to around $4,259, ultimately closing at $4,265 per ounce, reflecting a 0.24% increase [1]. - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.03%, and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.33% [1]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 87.6%, as indicated by CME's "Fed Watch" tool [1]. - Analysts note that the acceleration in the contraction of U.S. manufacturing, along with dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, is likely to support gold and silver prices in the near future [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inventory shortages and potential squeeze risks supported a new high in silver, leading to a collective increase in the non - ferrous metals sector. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%. The top 20 positions increased both long and short positions, with net long positions increasing by 3,467 lots. [7] - As the price rose, downstream buyers showed fear of high prices, and market trading weakened. The premium in the Shanghai market for the 01 contract was 130 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton for the 01 contract, with the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widening. [7] - There were limited changes in the industrial chain. The domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) remained flat this week, while the imported concentrate TC continued to decline. The shortage at the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end, and the refined zinc output in November was expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. The tightening supply strengthened the support for zinc prices. [7] - The export window was still open, and with downstream pick - ups, the domestic social inventory had been decreasing for three consecutive weeks. The expectation of an interest rate cut in December increased, and the bullish sentiment in precious metals remained. Shanghai zinc was boosted and showed a strong performance. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of different Shanghai zinc contracts (2512, 2601, 2602) are presented. For example, the 2601 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan or 1.05%, with an open interest of 105,756 lots and an increase of 4,214 lots. [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Price Ranges in Different Regions**: On December 1, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions were as follows: 22,600 - 22,750 yuan/ton in the general market, 22,600 - 22,720 yuan/ton in the Ningbo market, 22,420 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Tianjin market, and 22,440 - 22,610 yuan/ton in the Guangdong market. Different brands also had corresponding price ranges and premium/discount situations. [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in ten thousand tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons). [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the increasing probability of a rate cut has kept the sentiment warm. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts [5]. - The aluminum price is expected to rise further as domestic and LME aluminum inventories are in a downward trend, with low inventory levels, and supported by supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price [7]. - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment to the non - ferrous metals industry, despite some industry contradictions [9]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the current weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, reducing its attractiveness to speculative funds [11]. - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor for short - term prices, although demand is currently weak [13]. - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms, despite large surplus pressure [15]. - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or use options, while paying attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics [18]. - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong [21]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally [24]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price hit a new high and then declined. LME 3M copper rose 0.51% to $11,232/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 89,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong declined, and the import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread increased [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are still a headwind, but the market focuses on the Fed's meeting. With a tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts, the copper price is expected to be strong. The operating range of SHFE copper is 88,200 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is $11,000 - 11,350/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,888/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,885 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market trading sentiment was weak [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - With declining inventories, supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 21,720 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is $2,840 - 2,910/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.10% to 17,069 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1,982.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment, although the industry has some contradictions such as rising lead - ore inventory and changing smelting operating rates [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.75% to 22,603 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $3,065.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the open interest has reached a new low in 2025 [11]. Tin Market Information - The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.09% to 306,580 yuan/ton. In October, domestic tin - concentrate imports increased, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) disrupted tin - ore transportation. The demand in traditional sectors is weak, and the social inventory decreased [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $38,000 - 41,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.66% to 117,850 yuan/ton. The spot premium of different brands changed, and the nickel - ore price was stable, while the nickel - iron price decline slowed down [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index rose 1.07%, and the LC2605 contract rose 0.54%. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.84% to 2,716 yuan/ton. The open interest increased, the basis and overseas prices were reported, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong. The reference operating range of the AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.65% to 12,445 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different products changed, the raw - material prices were reported, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally due to downstream restocking and traders' hoarding [24]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose 1.23% to 21,055 yuan/ton. The open interest and volume increased, the warehouse receipts increased, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, while the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists. The macro data shows certain resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. However, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose policy still exists [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The November manufacturing PMI released by the statistics bureau was 49.2%, an improvement from last month's 49.0% but still below the boom - bust line. The macro data shows strong resilience but is still weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. Future monetary policy is expected to be loose, which gives Treasury bond futures strong resilience. The difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is not much need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]