昨天说标普500连续两日下跌超10%，是5-10年一遇的市场调整，可以载入史册。 今天，A股和港股也急着青史留名了，下图，是财通孙彬彬团队做的，把今天的波动，和历史上几次对比一下。 A股这边，比20年初那次，其实跌幅更大， 近3000只个股跌停 ，占比接近60%，从这个角度看，比这更惨的，只有2015年的6月了，彼时 80%以 上的个股单日跌停（当时上市公司数量少，跌停的个股在2000只出头）； 而港股这边， 恒生指数单日跌超13% ，上图说了，一共4次比这跌幅更大，而进入21世纪后，和今天能媲美的，只有2008年10月的全球金融危机 期间了（当时单日最大跌幅12%多）。 所以，面对这种史诗级的暴跌，还是得留下一些对市场的观察，说不定，5-10年之后，再遇到类似的行情，还能拿出来参考一下。 我总结了十二条市场发生的"事实"，大家可以依次看看，也是结合了昨天《 最全的周一开盘指南 》里的预判和应对思路，正好recall一下。 本文涉及大量按摩桥段，你们可以给暴躁的客户转一下 。 分别是： 1、普跌—— 全球人民 都处于水生活热之中。 2、有史以来首次， 国家队 主动在盘中，宣布出手加仓。 3 、 我不卖，你就没 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The "loose trading" expectation has become the new main line for interest rates, with the 10-year and 30-year rates dropping to 1.63% and 1.83% respectively, down over 8.0 basis points since April 3[1] - The 10-year bond yield has not fallen below the 7-day repo rate's 250-day moving average, which is currently at 1.95%, indicating a potential ceiling for rates[3] - The market is currently facing a "yield curve inversion" risk, with average DR001 and DR007 rates at 1.79% and 1.93%, significantly higher than current long-term yields[3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - Economic growth is expected to weaken, necessitating the release of policy reserves, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions driving rates lower[2] - The upcoming "reciprocal tariff" implementation on April 9 is anticipated to impact market sentiment and could lead to further interest rate declines[4] - The flexibility of monetary policy is highlighted as a key factor, with potential for immediate adjustments in response to economic conditions, contrasting with the slower pace of fiscal policy changes[2]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Initiatives - Since the beginning of 2025, government debt net financing reached CNY 2.39 trillion, which is CNY 1.49 trillion higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Major project investments in January-February 2025 increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong start for fiscal spending[10] - Infrastructure investment growth in January-February 2025 improved by 2.5 percentage points to 10% compared to December 2024[10] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The actual loan interest rate remains high at 4%, reflecting ongoing low price levels that necessitate proactive monetary policy[21] - The divergence between interbank funding rates and policy rates has widened, leading to increased funding costs for commercial banks, which hampers the reduction of financing costs for the real economy[15] - The central bank's gradual approach to rate cuts contrasts with historical precedents where more aggressive actions were taken to stabilize investment returns[30] Group 3: Economic Recovery and Interest Rate Adjustments - A significant reduction in interest rates is required to stimulate internal economic momentum, as current corporate investment returns have not stabilized[30] - If the government bond financing costs remain unchanged from last year, interest payments could increase by over CNY 190 billion, surpassing the savings from debt replacement[43] - The proportion of government debt interest payments to total fiscal revenue is projected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, up from 7.8% in 2024, indicating increasing fiscal pressure[43]

清明假期期间，随着我方的反制措施发布，市场的声音迅速两极分化，极左和极右——要么是美方赢麻了、中要跪，要么是美方蠢坏了、中必赢。 但理性来看（当然也许我说理性，很多人也觉得不够理性），不管是对等关税，还是强硬反制， 从资产价格的角度看，无疑是双输的局面 。 就好像一对重量级拳手，在擂台对垒，原先都戴着拳套，有裁判居间维持秩序，看似拳拳到肉，但实际因为有拳套的缓冲，以及可以搂抱暂停，所以顶多 是皮开肉绽，不至于伤筋动骨，最后不管是点胜还是KO，双方都可以拿着千万美刀的出场费，潇洒地离开。 而这轮贸易战掀桌子后， 就好像两位拳手把拳套给脱了 ，裁判也没有了， 直接硬碰硬，这就导致，不管最后是谁笑到最后，双方一定都会给对方，造成 更大的伤害。 本文确保都是干货，建议收藏。 节前A股收盘后，全球金融市场又发生了 足以载入史册的危机模式 ——标普500，周四、周五两日，累计下跌10.8%，而上一次两日跌幅超过10%，还是 在2020年3月，美股因疫情熔断的期间；再上一次，是2008年的金融危机；而大多数人印象比较深刻的，去年7-8月，美股因日元加息导致的大跌过程中， 标普500连续两日最大跌幅都没有超过5%。 所以，说 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In March, the bond market faced significant challenges, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.70% and closing at 1.80%, peaking at 1.90% during the month[1] - The bond market experienced a "dramatic adjustment" followed by a "gradual recovery" after March 17, when the central bank's attitude softened, leading to a recovery in long-term interest rates[1] - The seasonal easing of liquidity in April is expected to be a key driver for the bond market, with historical data showing a decrease in funding rates in April compared to March[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The central bank has a history of implementing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in April, with reductions of 0.25 percentage points in April 2022 and March 2023, and a potential cut of 0.50 percentage points in February 2024[2] - April typically sees a significant tax payment period, with monthly tax payments exceeding CNY 1.5 trillion, which could create liquidity fluctuations[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in April is historically low, averaging CNY 639 billion for national bonds and CNY 2.13 trillion for local bonds, indicating minimal disruption to liquidity[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on April 2 may increase global market risk aversion, potentially pushing bond yields down and impacting equity markets[3] - High-frequency data suggests that March exports did not show significant improvement, with container shipping rates declining by 11.1% compared to February, indicating weakening export demand[3] - If export data shows a significant slowdown, it may trigger policy responses, including potential RRR cuts and accelerated government bond issuance[3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Non-bank institutions are expected to regain pricing power in the bond market as the market stabilizes in Q2, with funds likely to increase their bond allocations[4] - The insurance sector is anticipated to enhance its bond allocation in April, particularly favoring long-term local bonds, which may see a return to average spreads with government bonds[4] - The strategy for April should focus on higher spread protection durations to mitigate market volatility during uncertain periods[4]

2015 年 10 月 -2016 年 1 月，人民币快速贬值，央行开始收紧资金面，稳定汇率。 2016 年 1 月 22 日，央行行长助理张晓慧表示："现阶段管理流动性要 高度关注人民币汇率的稳定，降准的政策信号过于强。" ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250328— 央行：降准降息再等一下是对的（-央行继续净回笼资金-央行原副行长称降准降息再等一下是对的-传央行指导卖超长债+股市偏弱+资 金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展785亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有930亿元逆回购到期，净回笼145亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.72%附近、DR007在2.05%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.28) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant changes in both domestic and international environments, affecting global supply chains and China's economic structure, leading to a clear stance on moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The People's Bank of China has implemented multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic development amid increasing uncertainties [1] - The central bank's policy indicates that it will adjust RRR and interest rates based on domestic and international economic and financial conditions [1]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 450 billion yuan operation on March 25, indicating a potential for future interest rate cuts [1] - The market has been experiencing fluctuations, with a significant drop observed last Friday due to futures contract expirations [1] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a notable decrease in trading volume, reflecting increased observation from both bulls and bears [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted its interest rate cut expectations from two times to one due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [3] - Inflation is expected to remain unstable, delaying the path for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The A-share market showed a predominance of declines over gains, with a significant drop in trading volume compared to the previous day [7] Group 3 - The market is currently at a critical support level, with the 60-day moving average providing strong support [7] - There is a recommendation to avoid chasing high-priced stocks due to the risk of buying at peaks, while focusing on undervalued stocks for potential gains [7] - The market is expected to undergo a shift in trend soon, with an upcoming opportunity for entry [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a shift in the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) from a single rate bidding to a multiple price bidding system, indicating a move to downplay the significance of the MLF policy rate and emphasize the reverse repo rate as the primary policy rate [1][3]. Group 1: MLF Reform - The MLF will now adopt a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding approach starting from March 2025, with an operation of 4,500 billion yuan for a one-year term [2]. - This reform is seen as a continuation of the PBOC's strategy to reduce the prominence of the MLF policy rate, aligning it more closely with the reverse repo rate [3][4]. - The historical context shows that the PBOC has been gradually shifting towards using the reverse repo rate as the main policy rate since mid-2024 [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bank Funding Costs - The change to multiple price bidding may lead to a decrease in the MLF rate, thereby lowering banks' funding costs [4]. - Currently, the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is approximately 1.92%, which is lower than the MLF rate of 2.0% as of February 2025, suggesting potential for further reductions in MLF rates [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has enhanced its liquidity provision tools, including MLF, reverse repos, and government bond transactions, to cover various timeframes [5]. - MLF and reverse repos are both fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding operations, with MLF having a one-year term and reverse repos having three and six-month terms [5]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - If economic momentum weakens due to factors like tariffs in the second quarter, the PBOC may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic growth [7]. - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a readiness to adjust reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [7].

盘后财政政策重大发布！A500ETF(159339)今日深 V收盘翻红，过去10个交易日日均成交额7.40亿元 消息面上，2025年3月24日，财政部发布《2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告》称，2025年财政政 策要更加积极，持续用力、更加给力。强调提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度。安排更大 规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑。支持全方位扩大国内需求。大力提振消费。支持现代 化产业体系建设。着力提升科技创新能力，加大中央本级科技投入。 A500ETF（159339）跟踪A股新时代核心宽基A500指数，以500只成份股覆盖A股市场营收的63%和 净利润的70%，代表A股核心资产。所有成份股都处于互联互通范围内，便利外资配置。指数编制方案 重视行业均衡，均衡配置"科技+顺周期"，把握A股盈利主线。 3月24日，A股市场临近收盘大幅反弹，A500指数深V修复至收红。A500指数成份股中，石英股份 涨超10%，江西铜业、胜宏科技、中集集团涨超5%，洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、新易盛、西部超导涨超 4%，其余成份股走势积极。 A500ETF（159339）跟踪中证A500指数，在编制方案上具备四大特点，分别 ...