1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the profit of steel mills continues to be compressed [3] - The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing the rise may need to wait for the price to break through [5] - It is expected that the molten iron output will stop falling and then fluctuate and rise, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [9][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data - **Threaded Steel Basis Spread**: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [14] - **Threaded Steel Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand declines [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The supply and inventory of long - and short - process steel are also analyzed [24][26] - **Threaded Steel Production Profit**: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [28] 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis Spread**: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [34] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: The demand is flat, with poor production schedules in the home appliance and automobile industries. The implementation of standards has led to a decrease in export orders on a month - on - month basis [38][39] - **MS Weekly Data**: The hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory [41][42] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit**: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [43] 3.3 Variety Regional Difference - Analyzes the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate [52] 3.4 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply - Demand - Inventory Data - Presents the seasonal data of supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate [60]

Group 1 - The market's early-year excitement is driven by a concentration of funds that missed out on the previous year, with a backdrop of "people's desire for growth" [1][2] - The current market movement is primarily seen in thematic sectors and small-cap stocks, rather than in the direction of allocation-type funds [3][4] - Short-term market heat is high, but sentiment indicators have not shown signs of weakening, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [4][15] Group 2 - The performance of small and mid-cap growth styles has significantly outperformed large-cap value styles, with the CSI 500 index rising by 7.9% and the CSI 2000 by 7.2%, compared to the CSI 300's 2.8% [3][13] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a notable increase, with a trading volume of 729.1 billion yuan on January 9, accounting for 23.1% of total A-share trading [3][13] - The current market environment is characterized by abundant allocation and quantitative funds, while individual stock pricing funds are scarce, indicating a need for a shift back to fundamental-driven trends [15][16] Group 3 - For the year, allocation-type funds are increasingly focused on reducing volatility in their equity positions, as long-term interest rates continue to decline [17][18] - Recommended sectors for investment include resources and traditional manufacturing, with an emphasis on enhancing pricing power, as well as increasing allocations to non-bank financials [7][18] - The market's current excitement may not be the right time for allocation-type funds to chase hot sectors, with a more strategic approach suggested for the critical structural adjustment window in late March to April [15][16]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The走势 rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week (1/5 - 1/9), lithium salt prices continued to rise. LC2601's closing price increased by 15.6% week - on - week to 139,000 yuan/ton, and LC2605's closing price rose by 18% to 143,000 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.1% and 18.2% respectively [2][12] - On January 9th, two departments announced a reduction in the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% from April 1st, 2026, to December 31st, 2026, and the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate from January 1st, 2027. This will lead to a short - term rush to export batteries, increasing battery production and benefiting lithium carbonate. In the long run, it reflects the country's "anti - involution" policy. Lithium salt prices are expected to remain strong [3][13] - The second "anti - involution" meeting in the terminal battery industry aims to rectify irrational behaviors such as blind capacity construction and low - price competition. Cell prices may be more likely to rise than fall, facilitating the price - passing mechanism in the lithium - battery industry chain [3][13] - Inventory data shows off - season accumulation, but the production schedules of cathode factories have been revised upwards by multiple third - party institutions, indicating that the feature of non - weak demand in the off - season is becoming stronger [3][13][14] - Currently, high market sentiment and the rush to export strengthen the expectation of non - weak demand in the off - season. Lithium salt prices may continue to rise, showing a tendency to be more likely to rise than fall. Existing long positions can be held, while new long positions need to be carefully protected [3][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Policy Stimulates Short - term Battery Export Rush, Lithium Salt Demand Not Weak in Off - season - Lithium salt prices continued to rise last week. LC2601 and LC2605 closing prices, as well as SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, all increased significantly. The electric - industrial price difference widened, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][12][13] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Zhongkuang Resources' 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was ignited for trial operation on January 2nd, 2026. After the project is put into production, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery - grade lithium salt [15] - Two lithium iron phosphate listed companies confirmed price increases of 1,500 - 2,000 yuan/ton [15] - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed. Most customers have accepted a processing fee increase of 1,000 yuan/ton, and there are two options for lithium carbonate settlement [16] - On January 9th, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the VAT export tax - rebate policy for battery products [13][16] 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rise with the Market - Lithium concentrate prices follow the upward trend of the market [17] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Slight Increase in Production, Marginal Inventory Accumulation under Off - season Pressure - Lithium salt production increased slightly, and inventory accumulated marginally during the off - season [19] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Cathode Material Prices Expected to Rise Continuously - Cathode material prices are expected to continue rising [45] 3.4 Terminal: Anti - involution in the Battery Industry, Focus on the Upward Momentum of Cell Prices - The battery industry's anti - involution efforts may drive up cell prices [59]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for nominal growth rebound in the first year of the five-year plan, highlighting historical patterns where such rebounds occurred in 2006, 2010, 2016, and 2021, with specific internal and external demand influences noted [1][2] - It suggests that the first year of a new five-year plan often sees concentrated investment in key projects, leading to increased fixed asset investment growth [2][3] - The article estimates that 2026 could be a moderate recovery phase for nominal growth, driven by low fixed asset investment in the previous year and clear targets for consumption rate improvement [3][4] Group 2 - Global stock markets, including A-shares, are experiencing broad gains, with traditional sectors showing valuation recovery and growth themes like commercial aerospace and AI technology leading the charge [5][10] - The article notes a significant increase in market sentiment, with the S&P 500 fear and greed index rising to 104.5, indicating a shift towards risk-on sentiment [6] - Commodity prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, with oil and precious metals seeing price increases, while copper prices have shown volatility [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization, with non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may affect Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [14][15] - The article highlights the potential for a significant reduction in effective tariff rates if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the current administration's tariff powers [16][17] - The article discusses the ongoing adjustments in the domestic market, including the impact of seasonal factors on CPI and PPI, with expectations for a slight increase in CPI and a decrease in PPI [19][20] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand, with specific measures aimed at enhancing consumer spending and supporting private investment [30][31] - It mentions the cancellation of VAT export rebates for solar products, indicating a shift in policy that may impact the solar industry [31] - The article also addresses the need for regulatory measures in the battery industry to prevent irrational competition and ensure sustainable development [32][27]

Market Review - The A-share market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting a rising market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles outperforming [2][3] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with margin trading activity also high, as the margin balance surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2][4] - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion have shown significant performance, alongside rising prices in related commodities like non-ferrous metals [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bull market may continue, with the A-share market entering a spring buying window, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data from December [3][5] - The influx of external funds and increased willingness of market participants to invest are expected to sustain market momentum, with notable inflows from financing and foreign capital [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events in the tech sector, particularly around the Spring Festival, which could further enhance market risk appetite [3][5] Sector Allocation - Focus on the expansion of themes in the technology sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, domestic substitution, and nuclear fusion [5] - Beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" trend and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, are also highlighted as areas of interest [5]

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, the lowest level since 2009, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%[3] - December 2025 CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI also rose by 1.2%[1] - The PPI for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, slightly better than the expected 2.0%[1] Core Insights - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI also maintaining above 1% for four months[2] - The PPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, driven by the non-involution sectors, while oil and petrochemical prices continue to decline[2] - For 2026, CPI is projected to rise to around 0.7%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and a narrowing decline in rental prices[2][5] Price Trends - In 2025, food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year, marking a 25-year low, with energy prices down by 3.9%[3] - Core CPI saw a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025, with significant contributions from household appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively[3] - The international gold price surge led to a more than 40% increase in jewelry prices, significantly impacting the CPI[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI for 2025 averaged -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, with both production and living materials prices declining[3] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand and excess capacity in sectors like real estate and infrastructure[3] - In 2026, PPI is expected to stabilize around -0.4%, influenced by rising prices in coal, steel, and lithium due to increased demand[5]

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing significant upward movement: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and ChiNext Index by 3.89% [2][3][9] - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including proactive measures by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "two new" sectors, the positive trends in December's PMI, PPI, and CPI, and the recovery of previously adjusted technology sectors [3][13] - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the mid-November 2025 high indicates an early onset of the spring market, with expectations of a recovery in the upward trend seen in the second half of 2025 [3][13] Group 2 - Among the 31 first-level industries, most have seen gains since the beginning of 2026, with the top performers being comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media, which have increased by 14.55%, 13.63%, and 13.10% respectively [4][25] - In the second-level industries, aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment have led the gains with increases of 24.49% and 20.01% respectively, while state-owned large banks II and joint-stock banks II have seen declines of -2.94% and -1.92% [4][26] - The third-level industries show marketing agency and aerospace equipment III as the top gainers with increases of 26.63% and 24.49%, while state-owned large banks III and home textiles have the largest declines at -2.94% and -2.56% [4][28] Group 3 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a slight improvement, with December's PPI showing a year-on-year decline of -1.90%, an improvement from November's -2.20%, and CPI at 0.80%, marking the third consecutive month in positive territory [5][29][30] - The macro short-cycle composite index is in a slightly turning state, suggesting that the current cycle's bottoming process is still under observation [5][30] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades and a favorable macroeconomic cycle expected to benefit upstream cyclical industries [6][7][32] - The report highlights continued interest in sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, aerospace, and strong technology sectors like artificial intelligence [7][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4] Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to continue addressing "involutionary competition" while focusing on "expanding domestic demand" and "countering involution," indicating a positive long-term outlook for the aviation sector [2][11] - The shipping market is experiencing a recovery in VLCC freight rates due to geopolitical risks, with some shipowners becoming optimistic about future market conditions [2][12] - The logistics sector shows promising growth in express delivery, particularly in overseas markets, with significant increases in package volumes reported [3][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 0.23% from January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.59 percentage points [1][17] - The top-performing segments included highway freight, public transport, and warehousing logistics, with increases of 4.90%, 2.34%, and 2.16% respectively [1][17] Aviation - The civil aviation sector is seeing a recovery in demand, with a focus on maintaining low growth in capacity supply and improving airline profitability as ticket prices stabilize [11] - Key stocks to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [11] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates have begun to rise, with the CT1 route rate reaching $54,455 per day as of January 9, 2026 [2][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is facing downward pressure, with the BDI index at 1,688 points as of January 9, 2026 [13][14] Logistics - The express delivery sector is expected to grow, with a focus on overseas expansion and the impact of e-commerce growth on delivery volumes [3][15] - The report highlights the performance of Jitu Express, which saw a 73.6% increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q4 2025 [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is collectively reflecting on the past years of intense competition, termed "involution," and is advocating for a shift towards a more sustainable competitive landscape that emphasizes technology, quality, brand, and user experience rather than just cost and price [2]. Group 1: Involution and Industry Reflection - The automotive industry consensus in 2025 recognizes that endless low-price competition erodes profits and stifles innovation, leading to a narrow path that does not foster long-term competitiveness [2]. - Major automotive leaders, including those from FAW Group and BAIC Group, have publicly denounced "involution" and emphasized the need for fair competition and healthy industry development [2]. - Geely's chairman highlighted a pivotal moment in 2007 when the company decided to abandon low-price competition, marking a significant turning point in its development [2]. Group 2: Safety as a Priority - Safety has emerged as a critical topic in the automotive industry, especially following several high-profile electric vehicle accidents in 2025 [4]. - Companies like Chery and GAC have established stringent safety standards that exceed national regulations, with GAC introducing a comprehensive safety guarantee policy [4]. - Geely has expanded its safety focus to include data, software, and ecological safety, reflecting a broader understanding of safety beyond just physical vehicle safety [4]. Group 3: Openness and Collaboration - The automotive industry is shifting from a competitive mindset to one of collaboration across the supply chain, with companies forming partnerships with tech firms and other sectors [6][7]. - SAIC Group has articulated a strategy of "equal rights-driven advancement," listing numerous partners across various technological fields, indicating a move towards a more integrated ecosystem [6]. - Chery's initiative to collaborate with top global universities aims to create a platform for continuous innovation, moving beyond mere technology acquisition [7]. Group 4: Smart and Electric Transformation - The consensus among automotive companies is that electrification is a baseline requirement, while smart technology will determine competitive positioning in the industry [9]. - Companies like BYD and NIO are making significant investments in smart technology, with NIO announcing the production of advanced driving chips and operating systems [9]. - The evolution of vehicles into "mobile smart terminals" signifies a fundamental shift in the automotive value proposition, integrating technology and business models [9]. Group 5: Global Expansion - The export of Chinese automobiles has become a crucial factor for future success, with companies like BYD and Dongfeng accelerating their global strategies [12][13]. - The shift from mere product export to a comprehensive value chain export strategy is evident, as companies aim to establish sustainable competitive advantages in international markets [12]. - Chery's global strategy emphasizes becoming an integral part of local markets, highlighting the importance of localized operations and community engagement [13].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee announced an investigation into the competitive status of the food delivery platform service industry, with major players like Meituan, Taobao Flash, and JD Delivery expressing their willingness to cooperate [1][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Response - Meituan highlighted the prevalence of irrational competition characterized by price wars, subsidies, and traffic control, urging the industry to return to rational competition and opposing "involution" [1]. - Taobao Flash emphasized the importance of fair competition as a core principle of market economy, committing to compliance with relevant laws and regulations while supporting the investigation [3]. - JD Delivery expressed strong support for the investigation, advocating for the maintenance of fair competition and the protection of consumer and operator rights, while promoting high-quality development through supply chain innovation [5][6]. Group 2: Commitment to Healthy Development - Meituan aims to use the investigation as an opportunity to collaborate with other platforms to fulfill market responsibilities and foster innovation and healthy development in the food delivery service industry [1]. - Taobao Flash reiterated its commitment to providing diverse and high-quality services in collaboration with merchants and partners, contributing to a fair and orderly market environment [3]. - JD Delivery plans to resist harmful competition and focus on quality delivery services, enhancing its offerings for consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [5][6].