集运指数欧线期货主力合约跌超6%，报1848.7点。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to Maersk's slight reduction in the price increase, the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, and the lack of significant progress in Sino - US talks, the shipping market has high uncertainty. The market is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, when the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Market Data - **SCFIS and NCFI Indexes**: On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period, and for the US - West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1%. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period, and for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64%, and for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI Indexes**: On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49%, and for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0%, for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0%, and for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% [2]. - **Futures Market**: On June 20, the main contract 2508 closed at 1890, down 6.99%, with a trading volume of 68,900 lots and an open interest of 46,000 lots, an increase of 3393 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand and Price Trends**: Although liner companies announced price increases for early July, Maersk slightly reduced the increase due to the lack of significant changes in market supply and demand. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has increased market uncertainties, leading to a weak and volatile market [3]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, slightly higher than expected; the service PMI was 48.9, lower than expected. The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high, and the service PMI was also at a two - month high [2]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. For the 2510 contract, if trying long positions, set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rates are stronger than the long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3.4 Other Information - **Contract Adjustments**: The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%. The company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Iran condemned the US's "barbaric military aggression" against its nuclear facilities and launched a new round of missile attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" missile for the first time [5].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 周度观点及策略 周度观点 华联期货PTA周报 供需偏稳 原油强势带动反弹 20250622 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 供应：上周PTA周均产能利用率81.55%，环比降低1.7个百分点，同比增加5.47个百分点，处在同期高位。周内嘉兴 石化重启，东北大厂停车检修及逸盛新材料降符负荷。供应总体维持高位。 需求：上周聚酯行业周产量156.06万吨，环比增加0.58%，同比增加11.58%。截至6月19日江浙地区化纤织造综合 开工率54.16%，环比降低0.39个百分点，同比降低5.9个百分点。终端逐步进入传统淡季，需求端预期悲观。 库存：上周PTA行业库存量约350.57万吨，环比降低0.55%。PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比增加0.12天，同比增加0.01 天。成品长丝短纤去库瓶片累库。 观点：总体供需持稳，成本方面原油受地缘影响维持强势，TA估值驱动明显上升。技术面震荡偏强。 策略：操作方面建议激进型投资者维持轻仓持多，2509合约支撑参考48 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The consumer market is gradually regaining vitality due to the effective "trade - in" policy and positive May retail sales data [2]. - Policy content from the Lujiazui Forum fell short of market expectations, and broad - based indices showed no obvious upward or downward trends [2]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and it is still expected that there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but the timing is postponed [2]. - The full - A trading volume remained at about 1.2 trillion yuan per day this week, with a significant contraction on Friday, and broad - based indices were still in a narrow - range oscillation [2]. - The basis of each variety has recovered to some extent near the end of June, and it is still within the time window for long - side enhancement [2]. - The term structure of contracts other than the June contract has shifted upward at the near - end, and the hedging cost is still advantageous, so near - end hedging can be maintained [2]. - The term reverse arbitrage strategy generated certain returns this week [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - At the beginning of the week, May macro data was released, with retail sales data being eye - catching. In the middle of the week, the Lujiazui Forum was held, but the policy content did not meet market expectations. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and is still expected to cut rates twice this year with a postponed timing [2]. - The full - A trading volume was about 1.2 trillion yuan per day on average, with a significant contraction on Friday. The broad - based indices were in a narrow - range oscillation. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 declined slightly on the weekly line, while the CSI 500 and 1000 declined by 1.7%, and the CSI 2000 declined by more than 2% [2]. - The basis of each variety recovered near the end of June. The annualized premium of IH exceeded 1%, and the discounts of IC and IM converged to around 9% and 12.5% respectively. The term structure of non - June contracts shifted upward at the near - end, and the term reverse arbitrage strategy generated returns [2]. Next Week's Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4].

入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 | 玻璃纯碱数据目报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TC 国贸期货 国贸期货研究院出品 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | | 制表人:黑色金属研究中心 黄志鸡 投资咨询证:Z0015761 从业资格证:F3051824 | | | | | | | 2025/06/20 | 合约 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 纯碱 5月 | 9月 | | 1096 - | 收 | 1055 | | 998 | 1165 | 1209 | 1176 | | 涨跌 | | 17 | 12 | 18 18 | 6 | 5 | 6 | | 期货 | 幅度 | 1.64% | 1.11% | 1. 84% | 0.52% | 0.42% | 0.51% | | 5月-9月 | 价量 | 1月-5月 | | 9月-1月 | 1月-5月 | 5月- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It's in a phase of negative factors materializing. Uncertainty exists in the unilateral direction due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US. Considering the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is favored [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. In June, maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and imports have a profit of around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene market is oscillating. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by continuous export growth or more PDH device maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new capacity commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 in June [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the动力煤 futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2480 to 2765, and the South China spot price rose from 2450 to 2680. The daily change on June 19 showed an increase of 65 in Jiangsu and South China spot prices [2]. - **View**: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a phase of negative factors materializing. With low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price rose from 790 to 820. The North China LL price increased from 7210 to 7400, and the East China LL price went up from 7300 to 7500 [7]. - **View**: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are stable, and attention should be paid to production conversion and new device commissioning [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6410 to 6460. The East China PP price rose from 7090 to 7245 [7]. - **View**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by certain factors [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 872 to 842 [10][11]. - **View**: The basis has strengthened, inventories are decreasing, and attention should be paid to multiple factors in June [11].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 20 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 市场休市 【相关资讯】 1.油世界：天气发展以及作物前景仍然是价格的重要影响因素。在加拿大的多数 地区，乌克兰，匈牙利，法国，意大利，俄罗斯的部分地区以及中国小麦和菜籽的种 植地区仍然比较干燥； 2.USDA 出口销售报告前瞻：截至 6 月 12 日当周，预计美国 2024/25 市场年度大 豆出口净销售介于 0-40 万吨，2025/26 市场年度大豆出口净销售为 0-20 万吨；预计 美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Basis Information**: - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4,550 yuan. The PP price has risen, and PDH production profit has improved, while FEI production profit is lower than CP. The PG futures price has increased significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread has changed from -11 to 103. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Civil gas prices have risen significantly, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4,603 yuan. Shandong shows signs of stabilization; East China is generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but has marginally improved due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices have rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures is strongly running, the basis of the 07 contract has weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread is now 195 (+10) [1]. - **External Market and Spread Information**: - External market prices have strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP has reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP is -19 (+31). Freight rates have increased, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has decreased [1]. - Among product spreads, PDH production profit has worsened, FEI production profit is lower than CP; the profitability of alkylated oil has decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit has increased, while isomerization etherification profit has decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads have declined [1]. - **Fundamental Information**: - Both port inventories and factory inventories have decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments have declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1]. - Chemical demand has generally improved. The PDH operating rate has increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate has increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production has also increased significantly. A large number of MTBE export orders support the price. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,005 lots (-335) [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250620: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 民素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1725.00 1737.00 | 1736.00 1744.00 | -11.00 -7.00 | -0.63% -0.40% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1789.00 | -9.00 | -0.50% | | 期现价格 | 国内现货价格 | 山东 山西 河南 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1840.00 1730.00 1830.00 | 1830.00 1730.00 1820.00 | 10.00 0.00 10.00 | 0.55% 0.00% 0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1830.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 东北 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiangxi Hongbai New Materials Co., Ltd., aims to mitigate the risks associated with raw material price fluctuations by engaging in commodity futures hedging and trading activities, specifically focusing on industrial silicon, which is a key raw material for its operations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Overview of Commodity Futures Hedging and Trading - The company plans to conduct futures hedging and trading to reduce the impact of raw material price volatility on its production costs, thereby ensuring stable and sustainable business operations for itself and its subsidiaries [1]. Financial Limits and Funding Sources - The maximum margin required for the commodity futures hedging and trading activities will not exceed 40 million RMB, and the highest contract value held at any single point in time will not exceed 200 million RMB, with these limits being subject to rolling use during the approval period [2]. - The funding for these activities will come from the company's own funds and will not involve raised capital [2]. Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company will adhere to a prudent approach, avoiding speculative trading, and will base its hedging and trading activities on normal operational needs to mitigate price fluctuation risks [3]. - Identified risks include market risk, funding risk, internal control risk, technical risk, and policy risk, which the company aims to manage through established protocols [3]. Risk Management Policies - The company has established a comprehensive trading management system that outlines principles, approval authority, management processes, risk control, and information disclosure [4]. - It will align its futures trading with its production operations, strictly control positions, and continuously optimize the scale and duration of hedging activities [4]. Accounting Policies - The accounting policies and principles for the commodity futures hedging and trading will comply with relevant Chinese accounting standards, ensuring proper financial reporting and measurement [4]. Sponsor's Review Opinion - The sponsor, CITIC Securities, believes that the company's engagement in commodity futures hedging and trading will help mitigate operational risks from raw material price fluctuations and enhance financial stability, with all procedures adhering to legal and regulatory requirements [5].