Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the market remains cautious about the tech sector, with funds continuing to flow into defensive sectors like healthcare instead of returning to tech stocks [1][3]. - Nvidia's revenue grew by 65% year-over-year, with data center revenue increasing by 66%, and the company provided a fourth-quarter outlook of approximately $65 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $62 billion [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector are rising, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain their capital expenditures, leading to skepticism about the long-term viability of their aggressive spending strategies [4][5]. Group 2 - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment towards AI investments, with increased scrutiny and doubts about the profitability of AI applications, particularly following the release of Google's Gemini 3 model [6]. - Macroeconomic factors are also impacting market sentiment, with a significant decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which poses a threat to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [7][8]. - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 90% to around 27% [7].

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected and previous value of 4.3%[3] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly increased to 62.4%, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate as more individuals entered the labor market[3] Sector Performance - Employment in the service sector rose by 87,000, with notable increases in education and healthcare (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000)[4] - The goods-producing sector added 10,000 jobs, with construction contributing significantly (+19,000), marking a recovery from previous declines[4] Labor Market Trends - The labor force increased by 470,000, but only 251,000 jobs were added, indicating a mismatch in job availability and labor supply, which pushed the U3 unemployment rate to 4.4%[5] - Despite improvements in certain sectors, indicators such as declining foreign labor, falling real wages, and rising initial unemployment claims suggest a persistent weakening trend in the U.S. labor market[5] Market Expectations - Following the employment report, December rate cut expectations dropped to 35%, but comments from the New York Fed President raised them back to over 70%[6] - The absence of October data and the delay in November data release have heightened market concerns, making the September report a critical economic indicator before potential rate cuts[6] Risks - The report highlights risks associated with unexpected changes in the U.S. economy and monetary policy, which could impact future employment and economic stability[8]

Core Insights - The market's hope for a recovery in tech stocks was pinned on Nvidia's earnings report, but despite a strong performance, selling pressure continued in the tech sector, with funds shifting towards more defensive areas like healthcare [2][3] Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported a remarkable quarterly revenue growth of 65% year-over-year, marking a return to acceleration for the first time in two years, with data center revenue increasing by 66% [3] - Despite the strong earnings, concerns about an "AI bubble" persisted, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks rather than a rebound [3][4] - Institutional investors have been reducing their tech positions, with funds flowing into defensive sectors, particularly healthcare [2][3] Group 2: Concerns Over AI Investment Returns - There are growing worries about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain capital expenditures [4][5] - The need for substantial capital investment in AI raises questions about the industry's ability to generate sufficient returns, with estimates suggesting a need for $650 billion in annual cash flow by 2030 to achieve a 10% return on cumulative capital [5][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Market Sentiment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased, which poses a risk to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [6][7] - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years [6][7] - Concerns about inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields are also affecting market sentiment, with a significant portion of U.S. debt concentrated in the short-term [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, leading to a decline in risk assets and a slight strengthening of the US dollar. The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with major developed market indices also declining, particularly the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng [2][33] - The US labor market showed improvement in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% due to a higher labor participation rate. The government announced that October's non-farm data would not be released, with some data to be combined with November's figures in December [3][4][6] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, causing significant volatility in interest rate cut expectations. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated that many officials preferred to maintain rates, leading to a 20 percentage point drop in market expectations for a rate cut to 30%. However, comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested potential adjustments, causing expectations to rise to 71% [7][9] Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, supported by resilient technology investments and stable consumer spending. AI investments are projected to remain strong, driven by commitments from countries like Japan and South Korea to invest in US AI infrastructure [12][17] - The labor market is anticipated to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to hover around 4.5% throughout 2026. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to diminish in the second half of the year, contributing to a more favorable economic outlook [17][16] Market Performance - The US stock market is currently in a phase of consolidation following previous high valuations, with limited further downside potential. Sectors with low valuations and solid earnings support, such as healthcare and utilities, are expected to show resilience [2][33] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 28.09, slightly below the past ten-year average plus one standard deviation, indicating a relatively high valuation level. The index's equity-to-bond ratio is at 0.87, above the historical average minus one standard deviation [43][39] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is likely to continue driving growth, with major tech companies expected to maintain high capital expenditure growth rates. This is supported by favorable policies and a stable economic environment [12][28] - The healthcare and consumer sectors are projected to remain resilient amid changing market conditions, with potential for growth driven by stable consumer spending and investment in technology [2][12]

廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 2025年11月24日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 降息预期升温带动股指高开，中小盘超调有所修复 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2378.87亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美联储"三把手"放鸽，称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期12月降息概率盘中突破70%。威廉姆斯在 演讲中表示，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减轻。他认 为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 2.日媒称中方拒绝明年1月中日韩首脑会谈，外交部回应表示中日韩三方并没有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的 会期达成共识。 核心观点 周末美联储三把手放鸽，强调就业下行风险，提振市场降息预期，今日股指集体高开。不过由于当前中日紧 张关系尚未缓和，叠加资金止盈意愿增强，股指高开后随即回落转跌。午后开盘集体拉升，中小盘股指翻 红，表现较强，中日风波影响下军工板块领涨，两市成交额再度缩量至1.7万亿元左右。我们认为今日 ...

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 戴璐 Z0021475 国泰君安期货·君研海外 基本面、降息预期和"AI泡沫" ——透视当前海外三大风险点 资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures (本报告感谢杨藤贡献） 日期：2025年11月24 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 三大逻辑点落地，市场如何定价？ 11月以来，全球市场经历较多地缘、宏观和产业逻辑的冲击，主要大类资产表现整体呈现几个特征：1）科技板块引领Risk-on，权益 转向防御；2）缺乏明显有效的避险资产，贵金属高位回落，全球国债市场表现不佳；3）年底市场微观流动性不佳，上风险情绪有限 非官方就业指标指向了本次非农数据改善，制造业PMI、服务业PMI、中小 企业就业和CB就业分项集合指数有改善 当前海外市场的波动源自三大逻辑点：1）经济基本面如何？2）基于基本面，对于短期（12月）和远期（2026年）的降息预期如 何？3）从"AI 泡沫"这一更务虚的叙事，转为对AI投资持续 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic disturbances last week primarily revolved around the possibility of interest rate cuts, with the market initially pricing in a higher likelihood of no cuts in December, but later data from the labor market raised expectations for potential cuts [2][6] - Precious metals experienced a pullback, with COMEX gold down 0.53% and silver down 1.47%, while copper prices also saw fluctuations, with COMEX copper down 1.07% [4][6] - The market for copper showed signs of increased downstream purchasing after a price correction, although overall consumption remained lukewarm, with expectations for next year's supply and demand dynamics influencing current pricing [10][55] Group 2 - The gold and silver markets entered an adjustment phase, with prices fluctuating in response to changing interest rate expectations, particularly after comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated potential for rate cuts [8][28] - COMEX copper prices exhibited a volatile pattern, maintaining a contango structure, with significant inventory levels indicating ongoing supply dynamics that may affect future pricing strategies [10][11] - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index showed a slight decline, with market participants awaiting the results of year-end negotiations that could influence future pricing and demand [16][19] Group 3 - The overall inventory levels for precious metals decreased, with COMEX gold inventory down approximately 620,000 ounces and COMEX silver inventory down about 1,497,000 ounces [43] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.4 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 39 tons, indicating shifting investor sentiment in the precious metals market [48] - The copper market is expected to maintain resilience through the end of the year, with supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite current price fluctuations [55]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate, dropping below $4040 per ounce before a slight recovery, closing at $4052.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.67% [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 0.25%, while the Gold Stock ETF remained flat and the Nonferrous Metals ETF fell by 0.67% [1] - The U.S. and Ukraine held talks regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which was described as "significantly effective" [1] Group 2 - The New York Fed President John Williams characterized the current policy as "moderately restrictive" and indicated potential for interest rate cuts in the near future, despite other Fed officials maintaining a hawkish stance [1] - The divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts is increasing, with the dollar index exerting pressure on precious metals, although expectations for rate cuts limit the downside for these metals [1] - The market is awaiting important economic data, such as the U.S. November PMI, to provide direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to fluctuate due to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with COMEX gold futures dropping 0.67% to $4052.3 per ounce as of the close of A-shares [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs show mixed performance: 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) increased by 0.25%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remained flat, and the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) decreased by 0.67% [1] Geopolitical Developments - On November 23, the U.S. White House announced a joint statement indicating significant progress in talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations regarding a new 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President John Williams described the current policy as "moderately restrictive" and indicated potential room for interest rate cuts in the near future, while other Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocating for keeping the policy rate unchanged [1] Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures analysis highlights increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with the high dollar index putting pressure on precious metals; however, expectations for rate cuts limit the downside potential for precious metals as the market awaits key economic data such as the November PMI from the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment is weak, LME inventory is gradually recovering, and the domestic demand side is in the off - season. Zinc prices are under pressure and may remain weakly consolidated in the short term. Considering the continuous decline of TC, the support from the raw material end is strong, and there is a certain production cut expectation for smelters in the future. It is expected that the downside space of zinc prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. Previous short positions can consider step - by - step stop - profit, and wait for opportunities to participate in long positions after the callback [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.22% to 22,370 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 0.13% to 22,395 yuan/ton; London zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined by 0.75% to 2,992 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 TC Continues to Decline, Pay Attention to Ingot - End Start - up 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 21, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 274,200 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in US dollars before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average) [30][32]. - As of November 20, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,288 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [39]. - Domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. On November 21, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 73.05 US dollars/dry ton [40][43]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated and declined, and TC decreased. The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 20, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,428 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of raw material stockpiling and the continuous decline of processing fees, it is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [44][49]. - The import profit window of refined zinc was closed. As of November 21, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,164.59 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [50][54]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - up Declines 3.3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 57.17%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and the black prices were always low, so the downstream's willingness to stock up was low. Some galvanizing enterprises reduced their start - up to avoid excessive finished product inventory [60][62]. - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased. At the beginning of the week, zinc prices declined, and galvanizing enterprises picked up goods at the spot price more frequently, resulting in an obvious accumulation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises also increased. Due to poor demand and general downstream purchases, the finished product inventory accumulated [63][65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Slight Fluctuation in Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - up 3.4.1 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.22% to 23,115 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy dropped by 0.21% to 23,665 yuan/ton [71][73]. - The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.72 percentage points to 51.02%. The resumption of production of some enterprises during the week drove a slight increase in start - up. However, the terminal market was generally dull, and it is expected that the start - up may decline in the future [74][76]. - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led alloy factories to replenish inventory at low prices, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, resulting in a slight reduction of finished product inventory [77][79]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Slight Increase in Zinc Oxide Start - up 3.5.1 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained flat compared with the previous period. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton [85]. - The start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.94 percentage points to 57.25%. The increase in production of some enterprises drove an increase in start - up. However, from the current demand side, the demand for rubber - grade and electronic - grade products slowed down, and it is expected that the start - up will be difficult to increase significantly in the future [86][88]. - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased. Some raw material prices were still high, and enterprises maintained just - in - time purchases, resulting in a slight fluctuation of raw material inventory. The finished product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises slightly decreased. The accelerated delivery rhythm of some terminal customers drove the reduction of finished product inventory, but there are still certain risks on the demand side in the future [89][91]. 3.6 Purchase at Low Prices, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory 3.6.1 Inventory - As of November 20, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 144,500 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. The decline of the zinc price center during the week led downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decline in zinc ingot social inventory. As of November 20, the inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous period [97][99]. - As of November 21, the SHFE inventory was 100,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 47,300 tons, and the inventory continued to increase [100][102]. 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in September 2025, the production was 600,000 tons, the import volume was 22,700 tons, the export volume was 2,500 tons, the apparent consumption was 620,000 tons, the actual consumption was 623,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was - 2,000 tons [108].