格隆汇11月10日丨黄金价格在早盘交易中大幅上涨，原因在于美国数据显示十月份裁员激增和消费者信 心减弱，从而推高了市场对十二月进一步降息的预期。纽约黄金期货上涨2%，达到每盎司4,092.20美 元，创下两周多以来的最高水平。三菱日联金融集团分析师Soojin Kim表示："美国经济走弱的迹象盖 过了结束创纪录政府停摆谈判所取得的进展。"根据FedWatch工具显示，市场参与者现在认为十二月降 息的概率为65%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) and its underlying index components, indicating a mixed performance among major stocks, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) closed at 1.523, with a slight increase of 0.66% [1]. - The ETF's trading volume was 524,900, with a turnover rate of 2.83% [1]. - The ETF's net asset value (NAV) was reported at 1.5152, with a premium/discount rate of 0.51% [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks such as Guocheng Mining and Ganfeng Lithium saw significant increases, with Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit [2]. - The stock of China Aluminum and Shandong Gold also rose by over 2% [2]. - In contrast, stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experienced declines [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a shift in interest rate expectations, with a decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts in December and January [3]. - The market is awaiting a liquidity turning point, which could impact precious metal prices positively in the future [4]. Group 4: Industrial Metal Insights - The supply side for industrial metals remains tight, with ongoing disruptions in copper mining affecting prices positively [5]. - The aluminum market is expected to enter an upward cycle due to a projected shortage, with recent price increases noted [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment option due to its high "gold and copper content" and concentration in strategic metals [6]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 131% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - end US Treasury yields declined again. Amid the federal government shutdown and labor data divergence, the market identified more recession signs and increased bets on interest rate cuts. If the federal government resumes operation before the December meeting, it may provide sufficient evidence for rate cuts [3][13]. - Global major asset classes showed different trends. Global stock indices generally pulled back, energy and black commodities were adjusted, precious metals fluctuated downwards, and the US dollar weakened due to weak labor data [5][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - Employment: In October, the ADP employment number turned positive but remained weak. The private - sector added about 42,000 jobs, higher than the expected 32,000 and reversing the decline in September. However, the increase was still small compared to previous years. New jobs were mainly concentrated in education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities, while several industries such as professional business services, information technology, and leisure and entertainment saw continuous net job losses for the third month [1][11]. - Business indices: The US Markit services PMI growth in October slowed, the ISM non - manufacturing PMI increased, the Markit manufacturing PMI rose, and the ISM manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. The labor market in the service and manufacturing industries remained weak [2][12]. 3.1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - US: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the short - end US Treasury yields declined again. The yield curve steepened with short - and medium - term yields down and ultra - long - term yields slightly up. The market strengthened bets on rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut increased by 4 percentage points to 67%. With the two - party attitude softening on Friday, the market expected the government shutdown to end soon [3][13]. - Europe and Japan: Japanese government bond yields had a slight overall increase, with short - end yields down and medium - and long - end yields up. German government bond yields across all maturities increased, with long - end yields leading the rise and the weekly amplitude reaching a phased high [4][17]. 3.2 Other Major Asset Reviews - Equities: Global major stock indices generally pulled back, affected by both fundamentals and policy expectations. The Russian MOEX index rose 1.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded 1.29%, while the US Nasdaq index fell 3.04%, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell 4.07% [5][18]. - Commodities: Energy and black commodities were generally adjusted, and precious metals fluctuated downwards. US hog futures rose 0.93%, CBOT soybeans rose 0.16%, while Brent crude oil fell 2.21%, and Bitcoin fell 5.73% [5][19]. - Foreign exchange: Due to weak US labor data, the US dollar weakened. The Japanese yen rose 0.53%, the Vietnamese dong rose 0.20%, and the South Korean won depreciated 1.59% [5][20]. 3.3 Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the auction panel of US Treasury bonds, the latest target interest rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasury bonds, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the yield curves of US, Japanese, and German government bonds, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [15][16][23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices are both in a state of oscillation. The hope of the end of the US government shutdown has stabilized risk appetite, and the prices of both precious metals are expected to be slightly bearish in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. - For gold, although US consumer confidence is near a record low, the hope of the end of the government shutdown affects its price. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 0.4 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, being included in the US critical minerals list may bring tariff concerns and provide some support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US consumer confidence is near a record low, but the hope of the end of the government shutdown causes gold price oscillation. US stock indices show mixed performance, European stock indices fall, US bond yields rise (10 - year yield up 1.54 basis points to 4.097%), the US dollar index falls 0.16% to 99.55, and COMEX gold futures rise 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, affected by the situation in the US, silver price oscillates. It is included in the US critical minerals list, and tariff concerns may support the price. COMEX silver futures rise 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The basis shows the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the release of the summary of the opinions of the Japanese central bank's deliberation committee members, the euro - zone investor confidence index, the preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index, and the possible release of Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders [4][17]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: The Japanese central bank publishes the summary of the opinions of its deliberation committee members. - 13:00: The preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index is released. - 17:30: The euro - zone November Sentix investor confidence index is announced. - Indefinite: Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders may be released [17]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The futures price is 921.26, the spot price is 918, with a basis of - 3.26 (spot at a discount to futures). The futures warehouse receipt is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1,800 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The futures price is 11,484, the spot price is 11,481, with a basis of - 3 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 623,052 kg, a daily decrease of 16,888 kg [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main players is decreasing. For example, on November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 165,261, an increase of 2,283 (1.40%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 67,608, an increase of 934 (1.40%); the net position is 97,653, an increase of 1,349 (1.40%) [33]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main players is increasing. On November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 354,598, an increase of 14,183 (4.17%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 255,979, an increase of 4,872 (1.94%); the net position is 98,619, an increase of 9,311 (10.43%) [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

Market Overview - Since November, the bond market has shown a V-shaped trend in long-term interest rates, but the volatility has narrowed compared to September and October, indicating a state of indecision in the market[1] - The central bank's bond purchases have resumed, but the scale of operations in October was limited, which does not support a strong bullish sentiment in the market[1] Regulatory Changes - The new redemption fee regulations for bond funds are expected to be implemented soon, with a proposed exemption threshold of 6 months for fee waivers, which could limit institutional flexibility[2] - If the exemption period is shortened to 3 months, it may significantly reduce the impact of the new regulations on public fund liabilities[2] Economic Indicators - October's PMI, export, and inflation data have been released, showing that manufacturing PMI and export performance are relatively weak, while inflation data indicates signs of recovery[3] - The upcoming financial and economic data for October will focus on credit, consumption, investment, and real estate, which could influence interest rate cut expectations if macroeconomic pressures increase[3] Investment Strategy - In the current indecisive market, the pace of duration chasing has slowed, with funds net buying 757 billion yuan, primarily in credit bonds, while government bonds saw a net sell of 44 billion yuan[4] - The average duration of interest rate bonds remains stable at 3.7-3.8 years, indicating that risk exposure is still manageable[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and cooling interest rate expectations. However, the long-term price trend remains upward, supported by domestic demand improvements from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3]. - In the industrial metals segment, copper prices are under pressure due to a rebound in the U.S. dollar and reduced import costs, while aluminum production is stable despite environmental restrictions [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite regulatory delays in cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][4]. - Precious metals are forecasted to rise in value, driven by central bank gold purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit, despite short-term pressures from hawkish Federal Reserve signals [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices have decreased by 1.80% to $10,695 per ton, with a stable demand outlook for Q4 [9][35]. - Aluminum production capacity remains steady, with a slight increase in inventory by 0.3 thousand tons, indicating a stable demand environment [2][18]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to high demand from the battery sector, while cobalt supply is constrained by regulatory delays [3][4]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to rise, with current prices at $4,007.80 per ounce, despite recent fluctuations due to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy [4][62]. - Key companies recommended include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold International [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil, particularly in technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, has highlighted the fragility of investor confidence and the risks associated with high leverage and speculative investments [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - On November 4, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq falling by 486 points, leading to a collective plunge in technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and oil markets [1]. - Bitcoin's price fell below the psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since June, reaching a low of approximately $99,932, with a single-day decline exceeding 6% [3][5]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies saw a substantial decrease, with hundreds of billions of dollars evaporating in a single day [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline in asset prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has led to a reassessment of previously high valuations [11][13]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Lisa Cook and Jerome Powell, have dampened expectations for imminent interest rate cuts, causing a rapid increase in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to 4.5% [11][13]. - The market's reliance on low-cost liquidity has been shaken, leading to a painful revaluation of assets that were previously buoyed by the expectation of continued monetary easing [11][13]. Group 3: Impact on Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has been significantly affected by the reversal of monetary policy expectations, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a massive liquidation of leveraged positions [17][18]. - Over 40% of traders faced liquidation, with approximately $18 billion in funds wiped out within 24 hours, primarily affecting bullish positions concentrated around the $100,000 to $105,000 range [22][23]. - The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies plunged into the "extreme fear" zone, indicating widespread panic among investors [25]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The current market conditions serve as a stark reminder of the risks associated with speculative investments and the dangers of high leverage, as evidenced by the rapid liquidation of positions in both the tech and crypto sectors [20][27]. - Analysts have warned of potential market corrections, with predictions of a 10% to 20% pullback in the stock market over the next one to two years [15]. - The collapse of previously inflated asset prices underscores the importance of valuing investments based on fundamentals rather than speculative narratives [29].

Core Insights - Gold ETFs have shown positive performance with consecutive gains, indicating strong investor interest and market activity [1][2] - Central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, reflecting a long-term trend of accumulation [2] - The global demand for gold remains robust, driven by geopolitical risks and economic conditions, which are expected to support gold prices in the future [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, 2025, Gold ETF (518880) closed up 0.43%, achieving three consecutive days of gains with a trading volume of 3.748 billion [1] - Gold Stock ETF (159321) also rose by 0.55%, marking three consecutive days of positive performance [1] - Over the past five trading days, Gold ETF (518880) has attracted a total of 999.8 million in inflows [2] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 7.409 million ounces as of the end of October, an increase of 30,000 ounces from September, marking the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [2] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves is expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices [2] Group 3: Global Demand and Economic Factors - The World Gold Council reported record inflows into Indian gold ETFs, with purchases nearing 3 billion, equivalent to approximately 26 tons of gold this year [2] - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical and economic conditions, with expectations of continued upward pressure on prices due to various factors [2] - Long-term forecasts indicate that interest rate cuts and supportive policies may further catalyze gold price increases, with strong global demand and central bank purchases driving the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tightening liquidity in the US repurchase market, highlighting the significant widening of the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Rate (ONRRP) to 47 basis points, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020, and the surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to $50 billion, marking a new high since its establishment in 2021 [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Liquidity Tightening - The liquidity tightening is attributed to a combination of the US government shutdown and month-end factors, with the usage of overnight reverse repos declining sharply after the Federal Reserve halted interest rate hikes and accelerated balance sheet reduction [3]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion, significantly above the acceptable level of $850 billion, further draining liquidity from the repo market [3]. - The combination of reduced liquidity in the repo market and banks being more cautious in external financing due to regulatory requirements at month-end has led to the rapid widening of the SOFR and ONRRP spread [3]. Group 2: Current Market Impact - Despite the tightening liquidity in the repo market, there has not been a substantial impact on other financial markets, as the daily limit for the SRF is $500 billion, and the Federal Reserve can quickly respond to liquidity needs [4]. - Recent data shows that the SOFR and ONRRP spread has narrowed to 25 basis points, indicating a decrease in the usage of the SRF [4]. - The performance of risk assets has been more reflective of their inherent vulnerabilities, with notable declines in global risk asset prices, but short-term fluctuations in the money market are not expected to have a direct and lasting impact on stock prices [4].