陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-10 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3079 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 44 元/吨（-1.40%）。当日注册仓单 35821 吨, 环比减少 10455 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.3747 万手，环比增加 116170 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3252 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 39 元/吨（-1.18%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 10 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：震荡中等待方向 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：债市情绪缓和但仍偏谨慎 4 | | 蛋白粕：利多提振有限 | 盘面继续承压 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价下跌 | 国内糖价低位震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：关注今日 | mpob 报告 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面继续回落 8 | | | 生猪：短期压力好转 | 盘面继续反弹 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面冲高回落 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 10 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 铅：冲高回落 22 | | --- | | 镍：镍价反弹后仍有下行压力 22 | | 不锈钢：跟随镍价低位震荡 23 | | 工业硅：石河子硅厂并未明显减产，短期偏弱 24 | | 多晶硅：平台公司落地，逢低买入 25 | | 碳酸锂：供应重回关注 锂价延续回调 25 | | 锡：锡价高 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：降息预期强烈 关注需求延续 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 2025 年 12 月 9 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场几乎已经消化了美联储将降息的 预期，分析师预计美联储将"鹰派降息"，其声明措辞、中位数预测、以 及主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会都将暗示进一步降息的门槛提高。国内工信部 筹划"十五五"工作，强调促进工业平稳增长、保障重点产业链安全及整 治"内 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity due to weekend positive news and improved market confidence [20]. - The bond market is showing a differentiated performance, with the ultra - long end facing uncertainties and the medium - short end having limited room for a "super - oversold rebound" [23]. - In the agricultural product market, most varieties are under pressure or in a volatile situation, affected by factors such as supply and demand and reports [26][27]. - The black metal market is volatile, with steel prices affected by factors like environmental protection and demand, and the prices of double - coking and iron ore showing different trends [58][62][64]. - The non - ferrous metal market is also volatile, with gold and silver prices likely to fluctuate more due to the focus on the Fed's signal, and copper prices rising due to supply concerns [68][70][78]. - The energy and chemical market is generally in a state of shock, with factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply and demand, and cost affecting prices [112][113][117]. - The shipping market's container shipping is expected to have a short - term high - level shock, with attention paid to factors such as the increase in shipping company prices and the improvement of cargo volume [108][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Last week, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and on Friday, insurance and brokerage firms boosted the index. The stock index is expected to rise steadily with a shifting center of gravity. The trading strategies include going long with a light position, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using a bullish spread option strategy [20][21]. Bond Futures - The bond market showed a further differentiated performance last week. The ultra - long end was weak, and the medium - short end was relatively stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The USDA is expected to see a decrease in corn and wheat planting and an increase in soybean planting. The market may be under pressure from the report, and the trading strategy is to lay out a small number of short positions [26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating, and the domestic sugar price is weak. The Brazilian sugar production is approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The domestic sugar production cost is high, providing some support. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell put options at low prices [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil showed different trends. The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in November, but the export was weak. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The trading strategy is to conduct high - low - band trading on the long - side [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures declined. Russia has reduced the export tariff on corn to zero. The domestic corn spot is strong, but the futures may have room for a decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, and to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [36][39]. Live Pigs - The live pig price showed a rebound, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to wait and see and sell wide - straddle options [40][41]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price is stable, but the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 01 contract on rallies and conduct a 15 - contract reverse arbitrage [43][44]. Eggs - The egg demand is average, and the price has declined. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the long - side can be considered for the far - month contracts. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [46][48]. Apples - The apple cold - storage inventory is low, providing support for the price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level oscillations and wait and see [49][51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The ICE cotton futures declined. The supply of new cotton is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see [53][55]. Black Metals Steel - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and steel prices are oscillating. Affected by environmental protection and demand, the short - term is expected to be in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and conduct spread trading [57][58][59]. Double - Coking - The sentiment is weak, waiting for the start of winter storage. The short - term is expected to continue to be weak, but the downward space is limited. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [60][62]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be mainly weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is to take a short - side view [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The price rebounds in the short - term due to cost, but the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - After the release of the PCE data, the prices fluctuated. The market is focusing on the Fed's signal, and the price volatility is expected to increase. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the support level of gold and go long on silver cautiously [68][70][72]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum is recommended to go long on dips, and palladium is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum, conduct a long - platinum - short - palladium spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [73][74][75]. Copper - The copper price rose due to concerns about non - US long - term supply. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [76][78][79]. Alumina - The price is expected to be weak before the expiration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to wait and see [80][83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The price is expected to be strong, with obvious fundamental support. The trading strategy is to go long [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price follows the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [86]. Zinc - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [88][91][92]. Lead - The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and be vigilant against macro - factors [93][94]. Nickel - The oversupply is narrowing, leading to a rebound in the price. The trading strategy is to test the resistance on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [95][97]. Stainless Steel - The price is in a weak - shock state, waiting for policy stimulus. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side [98][99]. Industrial Silicon - Due to environmental pressure in the northwest, the price may rebound in the short - term. The trading strategy is to stop profiting on short positions [100]. Polysilicon - With the increase in delivery brands, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and use a double - buy option strategy [102][103]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply is back in focus, and the price continues to decline. The trading strategy is to buy after a sufficient correction on the long - side and sell out - of - the - money call options [104][105]. Tin - The price lacks upward momentum, and the trading strategy is to pay attention to macro - impacts and expect high - level oscillations [106][107]. Shipping Industry Container Shipping - Shipping companies are starting to increase prices in January, and the market is expected to be in a short - term high - level shock. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long positions and conduct a 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage [108][109][110]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the spread [112][113]. Asphalt - The supply and demand are weak, and the price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the - money call options [114][117]. Fuel Oil - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have a weak fundamental outlook. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and pay attention to the spread [118][120]. Natural Gas - LNG is weak, and US natural gas has broken through and risen. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and use option - selling strategies [121][123]. PX & PTA - PX supply is abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and conduct a reverse spread [124][126]. BZ & EB - The cost lacks support, and inventory needs to be reduced. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and sell out - of - the money call options [127][130]. Ethylene Glycol - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price is falling. The trading strategy is to expect a weak - shock and sell out - of - the money call options [131][132]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber factory has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [133][134]. Bottle Chips - The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and use a double - sell option strategy [135][137]. Propylene - High inventory suppresses the price. The trading strategy is to go short on rallies and sell call options [138][140]. Plastic PP - The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the support level [141][142]. Caustic Soda - The price is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend and wait and see [143][146]. PVC - The price hits a new low. The trading strategy is to expect a weak trend [147][148]. Soda Ash - The price is in an oscillating state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation and pay attention to the spread [150][152]. Glass - The price is weak and oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the supply - side contraction to determine the winter - storage strength and pay attention to the spread [153][155]. Methanol - The price is in a weak - shock state. The trading strategy is to expect an oscillation [156]. Urea - The price rises and then falls. The trading strategy is to go short on the long - side and pay attention to the spread [158][161]. Pulp and Paper Industry Pulp - The spot market price has fallen from a high level. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions [163][164]. Logs - The fundamental situation is weakening. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on a small scale [167][168]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure remains high, and the market continues to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go short on rallies [170][172]. Rubber Industry Natural Rubber - The warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the tire inventory remains unchanged. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the RU01 contract and go long on the NR02 contract with a small amount [173][176]. Butadiene Rubber - The total warehouse receipts are reducing inventory, and the tire inventory remains flat. The trading strategy is to hold short positions on the BR02 contract [177][179].

（来源：银河投研黑色与有色） | 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 | | --- | | 第二章 核心逻辑分析 | | 第三章 周度数据追踪 | 焦煤:下周现货价格跌幅有望放缓 4 福河期货 投资逻辑与交易策略 | 银河期货 逻辑分析 ■ 现货面，市场心态仍偏弱，本周焦煤价格普遍下跌，不过有个别煤种探涨；山西个别煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成自行减 产，预计到中下旬此种情况会增多。对于煤炭而言，安全与保供需要平衡，在保供的要求下，会加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障，但在安全的制约下煤炭产量释放空间有限。后期焦钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任 务会有减产检修，预计盘面继续向下空间有限，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 交易策略 2 数据来源: Mysteel 银河期货 目录 /银河期货 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 3 ■ 单边:预计盘面继续向下空间有限,可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 ■ 套利: 观望。 ■ 期权: 观望。 ■ (观点仅供参考, 不作为买卖依据) 数据来源: ■ysteel 汾谓能源 银河期货 GALAXY F ...

目录 双焦：震荡运行 等待冬储启动 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月05日 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 现货面，市场心态仍偏弱，本周焦煤价格普遍下跌，不过有个别煤种探涨；山西个别煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成自行减 产，预计到中下旬此种情况会增多。对于煤炭而言，安全与保供需要平衡，在保供的要求下，会加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障，但在安全的制约下煤炭产量释放空间有限。后期焦钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任 务会有减产检修，预计盘面继续向下空间有限，短期延续震荡运行，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 单边：预计盘面继续向下空间有限，短期延续震荡运行，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 ...

目录 焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 1. 据百年建筑调研，截至12月2日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.49%，周环比下降0.07个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为60.59%，周环比下降0.09个百分点；房建项目资金到位率为54.02%，周环比上升0.03个百分点。本期资金到位率下降， 主要拖累项目依旧为非房建项目，降幅较上周略微收窄，房建项目资金到位率环比增加，增速收窄。 本周双焦盘面维持横盘震荡，趋势性不明显。进入12月，焦煤主力完成换月，主力合约由2601切换至2605。从焦煤基本面看，本 周国内炼焦煤供应窄幅波动，但下游观望情绪浓厚，上游企业累库幅度较前期有所放大，短时间盘面交易现实压力。目前现货市 场较为僵持，整体成交表现一般，但由于今年春节时间较晚，补库时间有望后移，近月01合约博弈空间有限。受冬储预期影响， 远月05合约存阶段性反弹机会但空间力度有限，主要受制于钢材产业链利润承压。关注寒冬天气以及12月会议带来 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工分化 关注高价位反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上市场普遍预计美联储下周会议将降 息，并将关注未来政策路径的信号，美元持续走软，有色金属价格受到提 振，铜铝价格在近期强势上涨。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

宏观预期再度转强 随着美国经济数据走弱以及联储官员表态转变，美联储降息预期升温。据CME"美联储观察"，12月降 息概率已经从11月初的63%上升至87%。国内方面，2026年为"十五五"规划的开局之年，市场对政策加 码存在一定预期，预计在"反内卷"、扩内需和稳地产政策上均会有比较积极的表述。事实上，11月PMI 数据虽然低于荣枯分界线，但已经出现积极的迹象。新订单指数和生产指数分别回升0.4和0.3个百分 点，显示需求改善程度强于供给。购进价格指数回升1.1个百分点，预示着"反内卷"政策效果开始显 现。 限产力度可能加码 10月下旬，唐山地区环保限产政策阶段性收紧，影响铁水产量约3.91万吨／天。近期，中央环保督察组 发现唐山地区存在违规新增钢铁产能和超低排放改造弄虚作假的问题，后续不排除有进一步的检查和整 改的可能。一旦采暖季空气质量变差，停产、限产的范围有进一步扩大的可能。另外，目前长流程钢厂 依然处于亏损状态，全国247家钢厂中盈利钢厂的占比下降至35.06%，因此钢厂主动减产的意愿也会偏 强。 今年前11个月，短流程螺纹钢产量占总产量的比重约为12%。12月到春节之前为短流程钢厂季节性减产 的时段。 ...