Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "sideways" for the black building materials industry [6] Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between reality and expectation, with prices mainly moving sideways. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, coal mines are resuming production in January, and Mongolian coal imports have rebounded to a high level, so there is still high supply pressure, and the futures prices are expected to move sideways. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak. As steel mills gradually resume production, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, and fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have relatively high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [2]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the pressure of upstream inventory reduction is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity removal [3]. 5. Specific Varieties Analysis - Steel: The spot market trading is average. With the end of some steel mill overhauls, iron and steel production continues to increase. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. But with the resumption of steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will move in a wide sideways range [8]. - Iron ore: The spot price is moving sideways. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals have increased. The fundamentals on both the supply and demand sides still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [9]. - Coke: The cost side of coke has strong support, and the spot price has started to rise. The demand for coke is well - supported by the resumption of steel mills, and the inventory of steel mills is steadily increasing. The supply - demand structure is expected to tighten, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [12]. - Coking coal: The supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [12]. - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply and demand are in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly [13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. The futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level in the medium term [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to operate in a range-bound consolidation [4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - related news [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel mills will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lack of highlights. Winter storage is sluggish and provides weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the overall inflation rate in the US in December remained unchanged, and the core indicator annual rate was lower than expected. Traders increased bets on "earlier Fed rate cuts" [3] - High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - The supply shortage of domestic bauxite has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories have increased, the spot price of alumina is under pressure, and the intended purchase price of domestic bauxite by alumina plants is falling [4] - The intended transaction price of imported bauxite has decreased, the market is quiet, and some alumina plants are cautious in their procurement plans [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, but the overall situation is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies" [4] - High aluminum prices have generally suppressed the entire industrial chain. Downstream enterprises delay purchases and digest inventories, resulting in insufficient new orders [4] - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [4] - Macro performance is strong. The logic of the monetary easing cycle driven by the Fed's rate - cut expectation remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies boost market risk appetite and demand expectations, but beware of high - price risks [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. The winter storage is yet to come. The strong stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline has an impact on market sentiment. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for five major steel products declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. In the off - season, steel mill output may continue to decline [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data details**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The prices of steel billets and scrap steel increased. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased, while the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased. The output of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly. The social and steel - mill inventories of five major products and threaded rods increased, while the steel - mill inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for five major products and threaded rods decreased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The overall output of five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. In the off - season, pig - iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The short - term increase in the pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills last week is expected to be temporary. The global shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [3]. - **Data details**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. The port inventory increased, while the inventory of imported sinter powder in 64 sample steel mills decreased. The domestic iron ore output of some mines increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 969,000 tons, and the inventory is slightly lower than the average level of the fourth quarter [6]. - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in January 2026 was 17,000 tons, higher than that in December 2025 (14,700 tons) [7]. - In early January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 tons (1.4%), and the decline rate narrowed. It was 480,000 tons (7.2%) higher than the same period last year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - **Other Prices**: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - **Shipment and Freight**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - **Domestic Production**: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量增仓 11840 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 957421 手。全天增仓震荡偏强，均线来看站上 5 日，20 日均线，最低 3141，最高 3174，收于 3165 元/吨，上涨 19 元/吨，涨幅 0.60%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3310 元/吨，相 比上一交易日上涨 20 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 145 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 8 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 2.82 万吨至 191.04 万吨，连续四周回升，公历同比下降 8.37 万吨，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高 炉开工率 79.31%，环比上周增加 0.37 个百分点，同比去年增加 2.13 个百分 点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 86.04%，环比上周增加 0.78 个百分点，同比去年 增加 1.80 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 37.66%，环比上周减少 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月12日08时26分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量回升，整体库存继续回落，螺纹表观需求有所下降，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量小幅回升。 由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间 才能到来，股市强势上攻以及政策面的乐观预期提振信心 ， 但市场监管总局约谈光伏协会及相关企业导致对 "反内卷"预期有所回落，对市场情绪有 一定影响。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.35%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and iron ore also experiencing gains [10] - Supply conditions indicate a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.0% for sample steel companies, with a weekly increase of 0.78 percentage points [22] - Demand has seen a decline, with a weekly drop of 44.20 thousand tons in the consumption of five major steel products [32] - Social inventory of five major steel products increased by 14.39 thousand tons week-on-week, indicating a growing stockpile [40] - The average profit for rebar steel has risen to 63 CNY per ton, reflecting a significant increase of 31.25% week-on-week [54] - The report anticipates a stable demand for steel supported by government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Summary - As of January 9, the average daily pig iron output was 2.295 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.07 thousand tons [22] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is at 56.9%, up by 1.76 percentage points week-on-week [22] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.138 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [22] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was recorded at 7.968 million tons, down 5.26% week-on-week [32] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95 thousand tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.47% week-on-week [32] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products stood at 8.652 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [40] - Factory inventory for the same products was 3.888 million tons, also showing a year-on-year increase of 10.71% [40] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,452.2 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 13.30 CNY [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,585.2 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 11.93 CNY [46] - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies is 37.66%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [54] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore at Rizhao Port is 823 CNY per ton, up by 12.0 CNY week-on-week [71] - The price for primary metallurgical coke remains stable at 1,715 CNY per ton [71] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -45 CNY per ton, down by 31.0% week-on-week [71] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel are highlighted for their growth potential and competitive advantages [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rubber market should shift to a bearish mindset. The subsequent supply and demand positive factors are diminishing, and it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high from January to February according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The revision of the NR delivery rules by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange is expected to increase the delivery quality and quantity of NR, making it more in line with the needs of the tire industry and rubber traders [15]. - The price of rubber is expected to turn bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - The postponement of EUDR will lead to a series of reactions such as inventory reduction in the stocking links of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - In January, it is still the winter storage season, but the subsequent supply and demand positive factors are decreasing. From January to February, it is easy for the rubber price to reach a phased high according to seasonal patterns. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU. The reports on January 4, 8, and 9 have all indicated the downward risk of the rubber price [12]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has revised the NR delivery rules, which are expected to improve the quality of physical delivery commodities, standardize packaging and production processes, and optimize the management of inspection validity periods in the delivery process. It is beneficial to increase the delivery quantity of NR [15]. - The market logic: the bulls are mainly based on the expectation of winter storage in China and the positive expectation of Chinese policies, while the bears' main reasons are the dull demand reality and the expectation of poor demand due to the tariff - increasing policy. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the medium term, the policy expectation is the key. The rubber price is gradually turning bearish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for band - trading [17]. - Strategy recommendation: for the hedging strategy, go long on the NR main contract and short RU2609, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1, for an indefinite period. If the spread is above 3250, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading [19]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [26]. - The overseas demand expectation for rubber is marginally weakening, while the Chinese demand is stable [31]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to various commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values or points of concern [41][44][48]. 3.4. Cost Side - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex in China is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost is low [52]. 3.5. Demand Side - The full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rates show no special values or points of concern [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the subsequent demand is expected to gradually recover, which will affect the supporting tires. The commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but the subsequent demand is expected to decline slightly [63]. 3.6. Supply Side - Most of the rubber import data sources were last updated in December 2021, and the import data is less analyzable after the 2020 pandemic [67]. - The supply of rubber from major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern [71][75][78]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1,167.7 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The cumulative production was 10,263 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.24%. The export was 869.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. The cumulative export was 8,837 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.73%. The consumption was 911.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. The cumulative consumption was 10,001 thousand tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.86% [102][103]. 3.7. Butadiene and Related Products - The total capacity of butadiene with spot sales is 179.65 tons, accounting for 27.99%, and the total capacity without spot sales is 462.2 tons, accounting for 72.01%. The total capacity of butadiene rubber is 181.2 tons [117]. - Many butadiene production facilities have experienced maintenance, shutdown, and restart situations in 2025. Some production facilities have plans for future maintenance or shutdown [118]. - The weekly average operating load of butadiene rubber is 75.90%. Some enterprises have plans for shutdown or production reduction [119]. - In 2025, the new butadiene production capacity increased by 113 tons, with a growth rate of 16%. The new production capacity in Q4 2025 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and decrease the processing profit. The import expectation of butadiene is high, which weakens the price [121][122]. 3.8. Ethylene and Related Products - In 2026 - 2027, many ethylene projects are expected to be put into production, with a total planned new capacity of 1,935 tons. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle [123][124]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 62 tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%. The supply pressure of butadiene is expected to decrease, but it will still be under pressure, and butadiene rubber will still drag down the price among the four major rubber varieties [126][127].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the steel industry and suggests buying on dips [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential warming of winter storage sentiment to drive demand. Production continues to rise but is relatively low compared to recent years, and anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate, but it is at a relatively low level, so the pressure is not significant. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside space, but infrastructure demand may have certain resilience. The market is expected to remain in an oscillatory range, with a bullish outlook [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Friday, the open interest of the rebar main contract decreased by 66,939 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,169,507 lots. The price decreased throughout the day while reducing positions. It stood above the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with a minimum of 3,128 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,174 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,144 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.10% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 166 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation** - **Supply**: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, and was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly rebar production was still relatively low compared to recent years [2] - **Demand**: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in northern regions stopped, and projects in southern regions were nearing completion. The apparent demand decreased for three consecutive weeks. Future attention should be paid to the start of winter storage demand [2] - **Inventory**: Inventory started to increase. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to accumulate after 9 consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4] - **Macro - environment**: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the purchase of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." The incremental demand was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [4] - **Cost**: The sharp rise in coking coal, coke, and iron ore provided strong cost support [5] 3.3 Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, loose macro - economic expectations, and sharp rise in raw material prices [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation, slow inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5]