原油日报 | 2025-07-03 市场要闻与重要数据 美越贸易协议达成，市场风险偏好回升 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨2.00美元，收于每桶67.45美元，涨幅为3.06%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.00美元，收于每桶69.11美元，涨幅为2.98%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.11%，报509元/ 桶。 3、美国至6月27日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -149.3万桶，前值-46.4万桶；当周EIA原油库存 384.5万桶， 预期-180.9万桶，前值-583.6万桶；EIA战略石油储备库存 23.9万桶，前值23.7万桶；06月27日当周美国原油出口减 少196.5万桶/日至230.5万桶/日；战略石油储备（SPR）库存增加23.9万桶至4.028亿桶，增幅0.06%；除却战略储备 的商业原油库存增加384.5万桶至4.19亿桶，增幅0.93%。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、印度尼西亚能源与矿产资源部副部长尤利奥特·丹戎2日表示，印尼政府计划到2029年或2030年实现原油日产量 达100万桶的目标，以加强国家能源安全。现阶段，印尼日均原油消费量达160万桶， ...

| H 等 市 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产带和弱经济利好情期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场不确定性再起,金价企稳反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | | | 宏观和商品属性或仍对银价有支撑。但基本面或仍会限制其空间 | 白银 | 近期市场风险偏好回升,叠加海外美铜及伦铜挤仓行情发酵,短 | | | | | 看头 | 국미 | 期铜价偏强。 | 近期市场情绪有所好转,叠加电解铝库存低位运行,铝价偏强运 | | | | TT. | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化。 | 氧化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 火烧云投产,预计9月底出锭,此外全球第五大炼厂罢工仅影响生 | | | | | | 产3天,对供应影响有限,短期锌受消息影响下跌。此外铜价大涨 | ...

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery trend in manufacturing sentiment[8] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points, signaling a return to expansion[9] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing recovery in production[12] Employment and Market Sentiment - The employment index within the manufacturing PMI is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment sentiment[14] - Small enterprises show a PMI index of 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the employment market[13] - The overall employment market sentiment is showing signs of slowing down, with expectations for income and employment potentially weakening[26] Inflation and Pricing Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate is estimated to be around -3.4% for June, indicating a continued decline in producer prices[18] - The gap between new orders and production PMI narrowed slightly to -0.8%, suggesting a minor improvement in supply-demand balance[18] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting strong growth driven by fiscal policies[20] - The service sector PMI is at 50.2%, showing a slight decline, likely due to seasonal factors following holiday periods[24] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[27] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is assessed to be higher than in July, with current market expectations indicating a 76% chance of a 25 basis point cut[28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase. US economic data and policy decisions influence its short - term rise and fall [14][15]. - Stock Index Futures: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine whether market risk appetite can be further enhanced [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Steel: Steel prices are oscillating. While spot fundamentals are not under significant pressure, there are still medium - and long - term risks in external demand, so caution is advised regarding the height of the steel price rebound [4]. - Copper: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly due to repeated tariff expectations and increased LME squeeze - out expectations [5]. - Crude Oil: Prices are oscillating strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ weekend meeting [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; the US June ISM manufacturing PMI is 49; Powell cannot determine if a July rate cut is too early [12][13][14]. - Review: Gold prices rebound due to the weakening of the US dollar index, but short - term upward momentum is insufficient. The decision on a July rate cut depends on the June non - farm payroll report and inflation data [14]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price trends are volatile, and market fluctuations increase [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Powell expects tariffs to affect inflation this summer; the US Senate passes Trump's tax reform bill; Trump denies extending the tariff deadline [16][17][19]. - Review: Market risk appetite cools, and the US dollar index remains low in the short term [19]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar remains weak in the short term [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: US June manufacturing activity is slightly better than expected; the number of job vacancies unexpectedly rises; Powell says tariffs will affect prices this summer [21][22][23]. - Review: The US economy shows resilience, and the market continues to wait for non - farm data. There are signs of overheating in market sentiment [23]. - Investment Advice: Be aware of the risk of a market correction [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing from January to May increases by 11.1% year - on - year; the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes regulating low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [24][25]. - Review: A - shares continue to rise with increased trading volume, and the next stage of incremental policies will determine market risk appetite [26]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Caixin PMI in June is 50.4; the central bank conducts 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [28][29]. - Review: Bullish in July, but the probability of a trending market is not high. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and continue to hold the curve - steepening strategy [29]. - Investment Advice: Long positions can be held, and it is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The US processed 203.7 million bushels of soybeans in May [31]. - Review: The market is calm. Brazilian exports are expected to decline in June, and domestic downstream transactions are dull [32]. - Investment Advice: Short - term futures prices continue to oscillate. Pay attention to weather in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US relations [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month; Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [34][35]. - Review: The oil market continues to oscillate. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline slightly in June, and Indonesian exports are expected to remain high in June [35]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to production growth in producing areas and restocking in consuming areas. Also, watch the results of the US July 8 hearing [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Only 3 sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have not cleared their inventories; the expected delivery volume of ICE July raw sugar is the lowest since 2014; sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22% year - on - year [36][37][38]. - Review: Sugar production in central - southern Brazil decreased due to rain, and there are uncertainties in future sugar production [38]. - Investment Advice: The external market is weak, which will drag down the domestic market, but domestic spot prices are firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [39]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: Starch sugar prices are stable, with different trends in different varieties [40]. - Review: Starch enterprises are still in the red, and starch production is expected to gradually reduce to reduce inventory. Downstream demand may increase the operating rate of starch sugar [40]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors on the CS - C spread [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The total land acquisition amount of key real - estate enterprises in the first half of the year increased by 33.3% year - on - year; China's heavy - truck sales in June increased by 30% year - on - year [42][43]. - Review: Steel prices are oscillating, with no significant pressure on the spot market, but medium - and long - term external demand risks remain [44]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to use a rebound - hedging strategy for the spot market [45]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The auction of imported corn starts, with a high成交 rate and premium [45]. - Review: The auction reflects a shortage of spot inventory. If the balance sheet is as expected, the auction volume may not reverse the supply - demand situation [45]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts. When the new - crop production situation is clearer, consider shorting the November and January contracts [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in northern ports is temporarily stable, and terminal inventory is relatively abundant [46]. - Review: High - temperature power consumption eases coal prices in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable [46]. - Investment Advice: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high - temperature power consumption [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The mining plan of the Sino Iron project is unconditionally approved [47][48]. - Review: Iron ore prices continue to oscillate weakly, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals but no prominent contradictions [48]. - Investment Advice: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in July [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The government emphasizes governing low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [49]. - Review: The polysilicon fundamentals are not optimistic, but there have been significant policy changes recently [50]. - Investment Advice: Before leading enterprises jointly cut production, the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the PS2508 - 2509 long - spread position [50]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The production schedule of silicone continues to strengthen [51]. - Review: There are production changes in different regions, and the upper space of the disk is limited [51][52]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Semi - solid batteries are mass - applied in electric light trucks, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and development of related varieties [53][54]. - Review: The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price to rise [54]. - Investment Advice: Short - term lithium prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to avoid short positions or move them to LC2511 and pay attention to buying on dips. Also, consider the LC2509 - LC2511 long - spread position [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Russia's exports of basic metals to China have increased significantly; a new copper company is established; Chile's copper production in May increased month - on - month [55][57][58]. - Review: Macro factors support copper prices, and short - term prices are likely to oscillate strongly [58]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to take a bullish approach unilaterally and wait and see for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: Shanghai launches a subsidy program for electric bicycle trade - ins; battery prices are raised [60][61]. - Review: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long term, and the price may rise [62][63]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to buying on dips and potential Sell Put opportunities. Wait and see for the C - structure and consider external - internal reverse arbitrage [63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME zinc spread is at a discount; a zinc smelter strike ends; Peru's zinc concentrate production increased in April [63][64]. - Review: Zinc prices oscillate downward. Although the short - term macro sentiment is strong, the medium - term fundamentals are expected to be in surplus [64]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see unilaterally, consider positive arbitrage for spreads, and maintain the external - internal positive arbitrage idea in the medium term [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Indonesia proposes an investment plan for nickel mines to the US [65]. - Review: LME and SHFE inventories decrease. The shortage of nickel ore eases, and raw material cost support weakens [66]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds as the medium - term fundamentals are bearish [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: API US crude oil inventories increase [68]. - Review: Oil prices oscillate strongly, waiting for the results of the OPEC+ meeting [68]. - Investment Advice: Short - term price oscillations are expected within a range [69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - News: Sinopec lowers the listing price of pure benzene [70]. - Review: The short - term supply - demand structure of pure benzene is average, and the supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken in the future [70][71]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the release rhythm of new pure benzene capacity, and price fluctuations depend on the oil end and supply disruptions [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreases, and the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [72][73]. - Review: The caustic soda market is oversupplied, and prices may continue to decline [73][74]. - Investment Advice: The rebound of the futures price is limited as the spot price decline has not ended [74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - News: Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, and some are slightly lowered [75]. - Review: Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, and if implemented, inventory pressure will be relieved [77][78]. - Investment Advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the bottle chip processing margin by buying on dips [78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - News: The price of imported wood pulp continues to decline [78]. - Review: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [78][79]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the fundamentals remain weak despite the adjustment of deliverable pulp varieties [79]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC powder in the domestic market decreases [80]. - Review: PVC futures oscillate after falling, and the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. - Investment Advice: The market is expected to oscillate as the short - term fundamentals change little [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on July 1 decreases, and the carbon market enables one - way auction trading [81][82]. - Review: One - way auction trading improves market efficiency and liquidity [82]. - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

Macro News - Trump stated that there is no need to extend the deadline and will assign tax rates to various countries [2] - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan due to its reluctance to import American rice [2] - The EU is reportedly willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries [2] - Canada has made concessions by canceling the digital services tax, and trade negotiations between the US and Canada will resume with the aim of reaching an agreement by July 21 [2] - Bessent anticipates the signing of a series of new trade agreements, stating that the current issuance of long-term bonds is meaningless, and stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid-July [2] - Despite Republican senators managing to gather votes to initiate debate, the final passage of the bill remains uncertain, with concerns over its potential massive debt scale [2] - Musk criticized the bill as "absurd and destructive," highlighting divisions between hardliners and moderates within the party [2] Institutional Views - Precious metal prices remained volatile in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.11% to $36.33 per ounce [4] - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, with inflation data slightly higher than anticipated, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, which negatively impacted precious metal prices [4] - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, has also contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Future price movements of precious metals will be closely monitored in relation to Federal Reserve policy changes [4] - The projected trading range for Comex gold is between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, while the trading range for Shanghai gold is between 750 and 790 yuan per gram [4] - The projected trading range for Comex silver is between $34 and $37 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between 8500 and 9200 yuan per kilogram [4]

首先，外部环境边际改善，国内市场风险偏好继续回升。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边 际改善。美联储降息预期较之前有所上升，推动全球资本市场总体反弹。国内市场风险偏好同样明显回 升，沪指上周创出年内新高，深圳成分指数亦有所反弹。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司的中报将 成为影响行情的重要影响因素，投资者宜根据最新信息，相机抉择。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡，成交略降。周一，两市小幅低开后，逐级向上反弹，沪指收盘于全天高点附近， 并收回五天均线。深圳成指继续反弹，近期表现强于沪市。两市量能 1.4 万亿元左右，较上周五有所下 降。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量较多。当天市场热点主要集中在国防军工和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，重心上移一个台阶。沪指上周突破了五、 六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区仍有 较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 上周国际油价高位回落，布伦特09合约跌12.5%，SC08合约跌12.02%。伊以冲突降温后原油重回宏 观与供需面主导， OPEC+部分代表表示或将在7月6日决定8月产量连续第四个月增加41.1万桶/天。 三季度旺季全球石油累库幅度面临收窄,但OPEC+增产压力之下宽松形势难有根本改观,油价短期 震荡偏弱运行,关注与美伊核相关中东局势的反复风险。 【责金属】 周五贵金属大幅回落，近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好，金价回吐战争溢价。如冲突不再出现 反复，市场关注点将逐渐转向关税谈判和美联储。鲍威尔上周讲话维持观望态度，认为利率的变化 将取决于经济走向,关注本周非农数据验证。 【铜】 上周五铜价高位震荡，美伦物流转移及溢价交易推高外盘；国内或因半年度结算，现货升水反复快 带动沪铜。临近7月市场关注美国与主要贸易伙伴的谈判进程，目前倾向继续顺延。另外，联储7月 降息节奏也成焦点。技术上，短线沪铜涨势可能打开到8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关注高位空 配。 【铝】 周五夜盘沪铝高位震荡。沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位显示市场分歧大,终端消费前置和淡季负反馈 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical benchmark view on A-shares, citing the elimination of policy uncertainty and a decline in risk-free interest rates as factors that enhance market performance [4][11][13] - The tactical benchmark view on government bonds is upheld, with the report noting an imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, which limits the downward movement of interest rates [4][11][13] - The tactical allocation view on gold is downgraded to benchmark, as geopolitical tensions have eased and market risk appetite has rebounded, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][11][13] - A tactical underweight view on the US dollar is maintained, with concerns over fluctuating policies and persistent fiscal deficit issues impacting the dollar's credibility [4][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent market sentiment is stable, with expectations for economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity assets due to declining risk-free rates and high trading volumes [11][12] - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and improved China-US relations have boosted global risk appetite, suggesting structural opportunities within equity markets [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment limits the potential for significant downward adjustments in bond yields, as the market has already priced in the prevailing interest rate levels [11][12]

| TG国贸期货 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 布给公馆言: /0001 | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前国内外消息面较为真空,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流 | | | 动性的驱动下进一步走强的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对 | 股指方向的指引。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 農汤 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農湯 | 真金 | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 震荡 | 日银 | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 看多 | 镇司 | | 外挤仓行情发酵, 短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存 | म | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | | | | 美联储降息预 ...