Group 1 - The euro continues to appreciate, breaking through 1.1650, reaching a one-week high [1][3] - The market sentiment is supported by easing US-China trade tensions, a rare earth agreement with Japan, and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The euro/dollar bullish momentum remains weak, with resistance levels at 1.1670 and 1.1730 [1][4][6] Group 2 - The German GfK consumer confidence index for November fell to -24.1, the lowest in seven months, contrary to market expectations [4] - The US and Japan have signed a framework agreement to ensure rare earth supply and reduce dependence on China, boosting investor sentiment [4][6] - The euro/dollar has shown a short-term bullish trend since the low of 1.1580, but momentum indicators suggest a weakening trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rebound in risk appetite, with prices showing an upward trend due to a decrease in port inventories and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 28, iron ore futures prices increased by 2.06%, reaching 793.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The total iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports is reported at 150.07 million tons, a decrease of 582,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total inventory at 45 ports stands at 143.11 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 577,300 tons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Satellite data indicates that from October 20 to October 26, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 147,000 tons, continuing the destocking trend [2]. - During the same period, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.884 million tons, an increase of 548,000 tons [2]. - Iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 20.843 million tons, down by 5.92 million tons week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Chao Dong Tian Cheng Futures suggest that while supply is increasing and demand remains weak, the recent drop in port inventories and improved macroeconomic conditions may lead to a short-term price increase [3]. - Hualian Futures reports that despite expectations of increased supply, the overall demand for iron ore is declining, and port inventories are likely to continue accumulating [3]. - Zhengxin Futures notes that the supply-demand structure is improving, with attention on the progress of the West Mangdu project, which may lead to increased supply [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, dropping by more than 7% from the high during the week and then stabilizing and rebounding. The decline was due to the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, the expectation of a ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine, and strong profit-taking intentions after the significant increase since September. The short - term easing of Sino - US trade friction reduced the safe - haven demand and increased market risk appetite, which was negative for the gold price. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September made the market expect a steady progress of US interest rate cuts, which was positive for the gold price. The sharp decline in the gold price increased the profit - taking intention of previous long positions, breaking the short - term strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [5][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph showing the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | 10/24 | 10/17 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,126.90 | 4,267.90 | -3.30% | | COMEX Silver | 48.41 | 50.63 | -4.38% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 938.10 | 999.80 | -6.17% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,332.00 | 12,249.00 | -7.49% | | US Dollar Index | 98.94 | 98.55 | 0.39% | | USD/CNH | 7.13 | 7.13 | -0.02% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.73 | 1.75 | -0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,791.69 | 6,664.01 | 1.92% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | 61.44 | 57.64 | 6.59% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 85.25 | 84.30 | 1.12% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 82.78 | 81.62 | 1.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,046.93 | 1,047.21 | -0.28 | | iShare Gold ETF | 484.26 | 487.19 | -2.93% | [10] 2. Gold Price Rise and Fall - Last week, the US dollar index and Treasury yields stabilized and rebounded, and the gold price fell from a high level. The overall market risk appetite increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly [14][15] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, international gold ETFs showed outflows. Precious metals rose and then fell, silver had a larger decline, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated and rebounded [18][22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the reasons for the rise and fall of the gold price, the impact of Sino - US trade and US economic data on the gold price, and the change of the short - term pattern of the gold price, as well as suggesting to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US 9 - month CPI was slightly lower than expected, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's future interest rate path are key factors affecting the market [20][21]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted the stock market, especially technology stocks, but concerns about shrinking trading volume and liquidity decline remain. The performance of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical situations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 9 - month CPI was lower than expected, and the impact of tariffs on inflation was not fully reflected. Core inflation declined due to the easing of service costs. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the October meeting was fully priced in. Sino - US trade negotiations made some progress, which was negative for gold. Gold prices were expected to continue to be weak and may have further downward adjustment space [12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to observe the support at the $4000 level [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada, and Sino - US trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, reducing the possibility of short - term trade friction escalation. The US dollar index was expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month Markit service and manufacturing PMI preliminary values were better than expected, and the 9 - month core CPI growth was lower than expected. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Sino - US trade negotiations did not deteriorate further. The market risk appetite increased [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted the stock market, and technology stocks rose strongly, but trading volume was shrinking. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this change [25]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The press conference on the "15th Five - Year Plan" boosted market risk appetite, and the bond market declined. In the short term, the bond market was expected to fluctuate weakly, but there were still upward opportunities later [28]. - Investment advice: The market may adjust recently. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal was stable, and the domestic market sentiment cooled. Coastal power plant restocking slowed down, but the early arrival of winter demand and stable supply provided strong support for coal prices [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to have strong support at the bottom [31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - LKAB's iron ore production in Q3 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The downstream demand weakened slightly, and the steel mill profit narrowed. Iron ore inventory was expected to gradually accumulate in the fourth quarter, and its fundamentals were structurally weak [32]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of iron ore are structurally weak [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 43rd week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was higher than expected, and it was expected to decline slightly in the 44th week. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in October, and there were news about Indonesian palm plantations. The Brazilian soybean planting progress was good, and the production of US renewable fuels increased [33][34]. - Investment advice: For palm oil, consider going long on dips; for soybean oil, pay attention to the latest progress of Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's sugar production in September 2025 increased year - on - year. India advanced the sugar - cane crushing start date. Datagro expected an increase in Brazilian sugar production and a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The market was bearish, but there were still factors that could affect Brazilian sugar production, and the production in the Northern Hemisphere needed to be verified [35][37][38]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly volatile. Do not chase short positions blindly and pay attention to the upcoming National Sugar Conference [39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports accelerated in October. The international spot market was sluggish, and the increase in yarn prices was blocked. Zhengzhou cotton rose due to factors such as the increase in Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase prices, but its upward space was limited [40][42][43]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton's upward space is limited. Pay attention to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 60%. The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume was at a high level. The US soybean drought area remained unchanged, and the USDA report was suspended. The market was concerned about Sino - US trade talks and South American weather [45][46]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US relations and South American weather [47]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased. The Southeast Asian Iron and Steel Association proposed to impose carbon taxes on steel imports. The inventory of key steel enterprises increased. The overall demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate [48][50][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading mindset for steel prices [51]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The jujube price in the Hebei market was stable. The futures price of the main contract declined. The Xinjiang jujube was in the normal drying stage, and the inventory was at a high level. The market was bearish [52][53]. - Investment advice: The jujube market is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [53]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch inventory decreased seasonally. The raw material supply in North China decreased, and the opening rate decreased. The starch enterprise remained slightly profitable. The futures price difference between corn and starch was repaired [54]. - Investment advice: The price difference of the 01 contract may continue to be repaired [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased seasonally, while the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The spot price was expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate horizontally [56]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and going long may need to wait for an opportunity [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The Huatong electrolytic aluminum project in Angola is expected to be put into operation in December 2025. The domestic alumina price was under pressure due to the opening of the import window and oversupply [58][59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper production of some mines decreased in Q3 2025. The QB copper mine's short - term production capacity was affected by tailings facilities, which is expected to improve in 2027. The market's risk appetite increased due to Sino - US trade negotiations, which supported copper prices. The short - term fundamentals were weak, but the medium - term outlook was good [61][62]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara's lithium - spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased, and the sales price rose. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the demand in the energy - storage field was strong. In the short term, the price was supported, but further upward movement may depend on supply - side disturbances [64][65]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term; consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term. For arbitrage, take profit on the previous reverse - spread and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunities of the LC2601 contract against more distant contracts [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The domestic new - installed photovoltaic capacity in September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The polysilicon price was stable, but the terminal demand weakened in late October. The cost of battery factories increased, and the silicon - wafer price was under pressure. However, due to policies and inventory conditions, the spot price was expected to remain stable [66][67]. - Investment advice: When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of policy - based trading decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, consider going long [68]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to break market barriers. The operating rate of industrial silicon in some regions changed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from downstream industries was for necessary purchases. The price was expected to be difficult to reduce inventory in November and may reduce inventory in December [69][70]. - Investment advice: Buying on dips for industrial silicon may be more cost - effective [70]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead and zinc production and sales increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2025. The primary lead production was restricted by raw materials, and the secondary lead production might increase. The social inventory of lead decreased, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term [71][72]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long; consider positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; be cautious in international trading [72]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc increased, and the LME inventory rebounded. The domestic TC quotation decreased, and the refinery profit might be under pressure. The demand was mainly oscillating, and the new special - bond issuance plan in November increased [74][75]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; pay attention to medium - term positive - spread opportunities for arbitrage; wait and see for international trading [76]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand. The global nickel inventory accumulation was priced into the current low valuation. The price was in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for a breakthrough. The Philippine nickel - mine supply was affected by the rainy season, but the domestic port inventory was sufficient [77]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider buying on dips; speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly, and the investment fund's net long position reached a new high. The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 90% emission - reduction target, and the carbon price was expected to oscillate in the short term [79]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU led to a significant increase in oil prices. The reduction of Russian oil imports by Indian refineries needs further attention [81]. - Investment advice: The risk of a decline in Russian oil supply has increased, and oil prices will be boosted by the rising risk premium in the short term [82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot price was stable, with individual slight adjustments. The futures price was relatively strong, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space was limited [83][84]. - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp futures is limited [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economy still shows some resilience, with inflation generally under control and the market fully pricing in expectations of a 25bp rate cut in the October meeting and two more rate cuts within the year. The Fed's stance on the pace of balance sheet reduction in the October meeting needs attention. The impact of the government shutdown is expected to be reflected in November data, and tariff issues also pressure business confidence. The short - term trend of the US dollar is oscillatory, while gold is weak in the short - term but the long - term bullish market expectation remains unchanged. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply - side concerns [2][11][32] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields increased, and the US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.1%, the euro fell 0.23%, the pound fell 0.87%, the yen fell 1.49%, the Swiss franc fell 0.3%, the Korean won fell 1.2%, the Thai baht, peso, and rupee closed down, while the New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar closed up. Gold prices fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.37, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.5 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.61%. The US government shutdown has affected the economy and employment, and the release of economic data. The September CPI data was slightly lower than expected. The US manufacturing and service PMI rebounded in October, but manufacturing employment continued to decline. The eurozone's manufacturing and service PMI also rebounded. China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, and the domestic stock market continued to fluctuate [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. Due to the government shutdown and lower - than - expected CPI, the US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level with limited downside. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rebounded to 1.85%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly decreased to 215bp, and the domestic bond market fell again [13][17][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, and most non - US currencies depreciated [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, with short - term weakness but unchanged long - term bullish expectations. The VIX index dropped to 16.37. Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.4 per barrel due to supply - side concerns, and the industrial products were weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [29][31][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US September CPI was lower than expected, which confirmed the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, boosting market risk appetite. The short - term possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low, and the outcome of the Sino - US trade negotiation is expected to maintain the status quo [33][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Sino - US trade negotiation, US President's visit to Japan; Tuesday: US August housing price index, October Conference Board consumer confidence; Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate meeting resolution; Thursday: Fed interest rate meeting resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate meeting resolution, European Central Bank interest rate meeting resolution, US Q3 GDP; Friday: China's October manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's October CPI [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - 26), treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Next week, the main - line logic of the bond market remains unclear, affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and tax payment periods, and is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. However, the adjustment of the bond market should be temporary. After entering November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the bond market should shift its focus to fundamentals, with a repair market emerging [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. As of October 24, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, down 0.044, 0.160, 0.250, and 0.700 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker next week. The adjustment is temporary, and there should be a repair market in November. Currently, opportunities for adjustment buying and band trading can be grasped. Attention should be paid to changes in market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the impact of tax payment periods [14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.6278 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 8.4691 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [24][25] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of October 24, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.49%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.21% respectively. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all narrowed [29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 28,761, 52,786, 79,022, and 138,621 lots respectively, down 858, 6,584, 17,299, and 5,756 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1,958, - 1,892, +4,151, and - 672 lots from last week [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, treasury bond futures adjusted slightly, with narrow - range oscillations in basis. IRR was generally lower than the certificate of deposit rate, and it was difficult to grasp positive arbitrage opportunities. Next week, there is still adjustment pressure, but the necessity of short - hedging is not high [43][44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of October 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were +0.080, +0.115, +0.330, and +0.290 yuan respectively. Currently, there are few trading opportunities for inter - delivery spread strategies [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 19.81 billion yuan. As of October 25, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.46%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.83 trillion yuan, less than last week [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of October 24, the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.9417, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.02%. The probability of a US interest - rate cut next week is relatively high [63] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of October 24, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index rose, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits showed different changes [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be weak next week, but the adjustment is temporary. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of adjustment buying [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has declined, and the A - share market has seen a shrinking - volume weak oscillation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, it is cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market oscillated and rebounded, and a wait - and - see approach is still recommended [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to economic data, the medium - term adjustment trend remains unchanged [4]. - Copper prices are oscillating. Before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market is cautious. The overseas macro environment is unstable, and the fundamentals show that supply is constrained and consumption is slightly suppressed, so copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to perform well. Overseas supply is affected, and the domestic market follows the upward trend of the overseas market [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and stagnant at a low level. Supply is in an oversupply state, but there is cost support at the futures end [9][10]. - Zinc prices are experiencing a weak rebound. Overseas squeeze - out support exists, but the domestic high - inventory pressure remains [11][12]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. Transportation control and production adjustment of some refineries support the price in the short - term, but there is downward pressure in the future [13][14][15]. - Tin prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Supply and demand are both weak, and there are few new contradictions [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Supply is stable, and demand is mixed. The market is waiting for policies in the polysilicon industry [17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may see a short - term upward trend driven by bulls, but the upside is not expected to be overly high [19][20]. - Nickel prices may have a technical rebound due to cost support [21]. - For soda ash and glass, the strategy of widening the price difference can be gradually stopped, and the market will be in an oscillating and wait - and - see state later [22]. - Steel prices are under oscillating pressure. Spot trading is stable, but terminal demand is weak [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. Supply is high, and demand is weakening [25]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are weakly oscillating. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the lower support range [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [30] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, and other aspects from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and related data on warehouse receipts, inventories, and premiums from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - Similar data summaries are provided for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal, including price changes, warehouse receipt and inventory data, and other relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and macro - economic factors are causing significant fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets. - Different sectors are affected by specific events, such as sanctions, production changes, and policy adjustments, leading to diverse market trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian LNG and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats. - Gold price decline slowed, testing the 20 - day moving average support. The new sanctions pushed gold to rebound slightly, but the rebound space is limited, and the price has not stabilized yet. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price has increased long - short game and larger amplitude, not yet stabilized [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin, indicating the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - The short - term market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index fluctuated. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q3 revenue rebounded, but profit decreased by 31% more than expected. - The Fed considered reducing the bank capital requirement from 19% to a minimum of 3%. - PrimaLend applied for bankruptcy. - The market risk appetite decreased, and the three major stock indexes declined. - Investment advice: The US stock market shows a weak and volatile performance recently. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and maintain a bullish view overall [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.47 billion yuan. - The bond market fluctuated narrowly. The probability of double - cut (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio) is relatively low. - Investment advice: Observe the market sentiment and look for opportunities to buy mid - line long positions on dips [22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's September soybean crushing volume was 4.133 million tons. - Abiove predicted that Brazil's 25/26 annual soybean production will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons. - Investment advice: With the US government shutdown, focus on Brazil's weather and Sino - US relations. The domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to remain volatile [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Infrastructure central enterprises' new "new infrastructure" project contracts increased significantly in the first three quarters. - Steel prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The market has limited contradictions and driving forces. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the near term [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month. - The oil market corrected significantly. The increase in production reduced the possibility of tight supply in the fourth quarter. - Investment advice: After the over - expected production data in October, the confidence in the fourth - quarter palm oil price increase declined. Consider buying on dips around 9,000 yuan/ton and adopt a range - trading strategy [30]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Newcastle Port's coal transportation volume in September was 14.0804 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.57%. - The coal price was supported by the increase in power consumption and the contraction of supply. - Investment advice: Although the power consumption in 8 provinces decreased after the end of high - temperature weather, the coming of the cold wave in the north and the long - lasting winter are expected to strongly support the steam coal price [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate in North China decreased slightly, while that in Northeast China increased. - The futures rice - flour price difference rebounded significantly and is expected to continue to repair. - Investment advice: The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to continue to repair [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first heavy - haul train of Simandou was successfully dispatched. - The iron ore price fluctuated weakly. The performance of finished products was mediocre, and the inventory and profit pressure of steel mills restricted the price. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be structurally weak, and there is no clear trend for now [35]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market was weakly stable. - The futures price of the main contract CJ601 declined. - Investment advice: The next week is the key period for the formation of the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see before the acquisition price is formed [37]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports increased seasonally. - The futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate narrowly. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The risk - return ratio of short - selling is not good, and it may be necessary to wait for the right time to go long [38]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic module exports in September were 25.63GW, a 6.0% month - on - month decrease and a 46.8% year - on - year increase. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The production in October is expected to be about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to decline significantly from November to December. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Group and its concerted actors pledged 49.91% of their shares in total. - The production in the north increased, while that in the south decreased. The inventory increased. - Investment advice: The fundamental situation is weakening, and the price has a clear lower limit. It is more cost - effective to buy on dips [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Hebei restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, observe the price in a volatile manner. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [47]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - MMG's zinc ore production in Q3 increased by 26%. - The LME zinc price fluctuated upward, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to wait and see. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy for domestic and foreign markets [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved. - The customs clearance of scrap copper imports became stricter, and the import volume in October may decline. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a high level. Consider buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, wait and see [54]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rongbai Technology achieved 10 - ton - level shipments of all - solid - state cathode materials. - The price was supported by the improvement of inventory data during the peak demand season. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the peak demand in the year. Consider reverse arbitrage for LC2511 - LC2601 and positive arbitrage for LC2601 against more distant contracts [55]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in Q3 was 46,800 tons, basically the same as the previous year. - The global nickel inventory increased, and the price fluctuated narrowly. - Investment advice: The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips. Speculative traders can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. - The US C3 inventory increased. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. - The US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, causing the oil price to rise significantly. - Investment advice: The short - term geopolitical conflict will cause disturbances [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - An East China refinery has a plan to shut down for maintenance. - The PX spot market is tight, and the price rebounded. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the space may be limited by the oil price [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated. - The demand side is stable, and the supply side is expected to increase. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the upward space is limited [70]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The production enterprise inventory was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. - The futures and spot prices decreased, and the spot price decreased more. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [73]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of urea enterprises increased, but the inventory accumulation slope slowed down. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner in the short term [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was basically stable. - The pulp futures price was relatively strong, but the upward space is limited due to the poor supply - demand situation. - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the short - term index faces uncertainties due to the rapid rotation of hot sectors and reduced risk appetite. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. - For the bond market, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market is likely to maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases, the bond market is expected to recover [5]. - For precious metals, although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices still have room to rise in the future but need some consolidation time. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position idea and go long on dips after the price stabilizes [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals' prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations and industrial supply - demand. Some metals are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others are expected to be weak [11][15][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are affected by macro policies and fundamentals. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to weak terminal demand and macro disturbances. Glass and soda ash markets are weak due to supply - demand imbalances [34][36][38]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices have risen significantly in the short - term, and short - term long - position with stop - loss is recommended. Crude oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term, and a wait - and - see approach is suggested. Other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [53][55]. - For agricultural products, the supply of pigs and eggs exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. For soybeans and rapeseed meal, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term. For oils and fats, a mid - term stable buying idea is recommended. For sugar, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter. For cotton, the upward space is expected to be limited [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods are presented [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, the short - term index is uncertain, but long - term policy support remains, suggesting long - term long - position on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Tuesday. There are diplomatic and political news, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of 685 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The market is expected to be volatile, and it may recover if the stock market cools down [5]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported, and relevant market indicators such as the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are given [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there was a significant decline, gold and silver prices have room to rise in the future. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long - position and go long on dips after price stabilization [7][8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillated and declined. LME and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories changed, and the spot premium and import losses are reported [10]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiation uncertainty remains, but sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price may strengthen after short - term oscillation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded. The positions, inventories, and spot premiums of domestic and foreign markets changed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased marginally. The low domestic inventory and tight overseas supply, along with the strong copper price, support the aluminum price, which may rise in the short - term [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [14]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc mine inventory decreased, and the total zinc ingot inventory increased. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are low, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly. The positions, inventories, and basis of domestic and foreign markets are reported [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the smelting and downstream demand conditions improved. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market, cost, and demand of nickel are reported [18]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - position on significant dips [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation of tin is reported [21]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate was stable. The import volume and futures price changed [23]. - **Strategy**: There is a shortage of supply in the peak season, and the inventory is decreasing. The price may continue to rise if consumption is strong. It is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipts and supply [24]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The positions, basis, and inventory are reported [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price has short - term support, but the over - capacity in the smelting end is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply policies and monetary policies [27]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and inventory are reported [28]. - **Strategy**: The price increase of the 304 cold - rolled limit by the steel mill has boosted market confidence, but the demand is not strong enough to support continuous price increases. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebounded. The positions, inventory, and price differences are reported [30]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices are reported [33]. - **Strategy**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices were volatile. The macro policies and fundamentals need to be focused on [34]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron ore supply increased, and the demand decreased due to weak steel mill profits. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and support levels need to be watched [36]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass and soda ash prices fell. The inventory and positions increased [37][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is weak due to weak demand and high inventory. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory, and the price is expected to be weak [38][40]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [41]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade friction affects the market, but the current situation may be mostly priced in. The black market is not expected to be pessimistic, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose. The positions, spot prices, and basis are reported [44][46]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and the price is expected to be volatile. Polysilicon supply is expected to decrease at the end of the month, and the price is in a corrective phase in the oscillation range [45][47]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoons and the stock market. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices rose significantly in the short - term. It is recommended to set stop - loss for short - term long - position and partially build positions for hedging [53]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices fell. The inventory of the Fujaiera port changed [54]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [55]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [56]. - **Strategy**: The import unloading is delayed, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by winter gas restrictions, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [58]. - **Strategy**: The short - term production decreased due to equipment failures, and the demand is weak. The price is at a low level and is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position on dips [59]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory are reported [60]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The supply is abundant, and the demand is increasing. The port inventory is decreasing, and the price may stop falling [61]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [62]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to be poor. The price is at a low level, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [63]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to consider short - position on rallies [65]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [69]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to reduce. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuations [70]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [71]. - **Strategy**: The cost support is weakening, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be volatile at a low level [72]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [73]. - **Strategy**: The cost supply is in an oversupply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be affected by the cost and demand [74]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices rose. The supply and demand situation is reported [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply exceeds demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to succeed. It is recommended to sell on rallies [77]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices fell. The supply and demand situation is reported [78]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may rebound, but the space is limited. The disk is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are reported [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [82]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil and the export of Brazilian agricultural products are reported. Domestic oil prices fell [83]. - **Strategy**: The low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and the reduced export of palm oil support the price. It is recommended to take a mid - term stable buying approach [84]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated slightly. The Brazilian export and price reduction of gasoline are reported [85]. - **Strategy**: The production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86][87]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The spot and futures prices and basis are reported [88]. - **Strategy**: The consumption demand is weak, and the new cotton production is expected to be high. The upward space of the price is limited [89].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures sector is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View - The short - term bond futures may oscillate. The market risk preference is expected to increase in the short term due to factors such as GDP growth meeting expectations, central fiscal allocation to local governments, and the agreement on a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the bond futures' main contracts opened lower, rose in the morning and then declined, and showed a unilateral upward trend in the afternoon. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.16%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.05%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.04%. [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A Index opened higher, rose unilaterally in the morning, fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon, and closed with a bald阳线. The trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 1.75 trillion yuan. [1] Important Information - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 910 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 685 billion yuan. [1] - On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31%, and that of DR007 was 1.44%. [1] - On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.53 BP to 1.50%, the 5 - year fell 0.71 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.41 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 2.91 BP to 2.192%. [1] - On October 21, Kao Makiko was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan, becoming the first female Prime Minister in Japanese history. [1] Market Logic - In the third quarter, China's GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In September, China's fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods growth were lower than expected, while exports exceeded expectations. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased more than expected, and the service production index was flat compared with August. The real estate sales continued to decline year - on - year in September and early October. [1] - Recently, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments. On October 18, the leaders of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations agreed to hold a new round of consultations soon, which are conducive to increasing short - term market risk preference. [1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [2]