期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 1 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价反弹，金银比值下行明显 核心观点 上周金价上行，接近 11 月中旬高位，纽约金站上 4200 美元，沪 金站上 950 元关口。金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续 升温，美元指数高位回落。截至 11 月 30 日，市场预期 12 月美联储降 息概率已接近 90%，美元指数上周也是从 100 关口持续走弱。 短期临近美联储12月议息会议，美联储处于静默期，市场降息预 期可能维持，对应美元指数维持弱势运行，预计金价偏强运行。但中 长期金价走势相较于白银明显疲软，金银比值持续下行，美股也持续 走强，这很大程度上是市场风险偏好切换所致。技术上，可关注11月 中旬高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

Group 1 - The bond market showed signs of recovery today, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by over 1 basis point, although Vanke's bonds remained highly volatile [1][3] - The closing prices for government bond futures varied, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.05%, and the 10-year main contract up by 0.03% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased across the board, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.25 basis points to 1.8315% [1][3] Group 2 - Vanke's bonds experienced significant fluctuations, with "23 Vanke 01" dropping over 58%, "22 Vanke 06" down over 48%, and "22 Vanke 04" down over 40% [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed factors, including the pending implementation of new fund fee regulations and Vanke's unexpected bond extension event, which negatively impacted overall market sentiment [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 301.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, maintaining liquidity in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has improved, leading to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which is linked to an overall improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific catalysts in the crypto market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - QCP Capital suggests that the rise in Bitcoin is associated with improved risk sentiment in the market [1] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is approaching a mid-term rebound target of $90,000, although it may face supply constraints related to ETFs [1] - The recent liquidation events have established a key support zone between $80,000 and $82,000 for Bitcoin [1] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be driven by market risk appetite and macroeconomic catalysts [1]

Group 1: Key Points on the Ceasefire Agreement - The proposed "28-point" ceasefire agreement requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1] - The agreement has been modified to "19 points" due to Ukraine's constitutional constraints and the need for further negotiations [1] - Key provisions include the recognition of Crimea and other territories as Russian, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The agreement's failure to address core disputes means the path to peace remains long and uncertain, with potential for increased geopolitical friction [2] - Trump may escalate economic and military sanctions to pressure negotiations, potentially impacting market risk appetite [2] - The U.S. and Europe are expected to contribute $1 trillion for Ukraine's reconstruction, with the U.S. receiving 50% of profits from investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - Oil prices may have limited downward movement despite recent negotiation news, as substantial breakthroughs towards a ceasefire are lacking [3] - Future negotiations may lead to increased volatility in oil and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The market's reaction to news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not meet expectations, posing additional risks [3]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate below $4,050 amid improved market risk appetite, despite a retreat in the dollar [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and new conflicts in the Middle East, support gold's safe-haven appeal, but a rebound in global stock markets has weakened risk aversion [3][4] - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including Q3 GDP and PCE price index, will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [3][4] Group 2 - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest a tight policy with potential for future rate cuts, raising the probability of a December rate cut to about 67% [3] - Divergent views among Fed officials maintain a strong dollar, which pressures gold prices, while optimistic expectations for rate cuts enhance investor risk appetite [3][4] - Key technical levels for gold include support at $4,030 and resistance at $4,080, with potential price movements towards $4,000 or $4,100 depending on market stability [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has diminished, leading to a global adjustment in stock markets, with concerns about potential bubbles in the artificial intelligence sector affecting market risk appetite [1]. Market Performance - Following the Federal Reserve's October meeting, the anticipation of a December rate cut has decreased, causing disturbances in global liquidity expectations and resulting in a weak performance in overseas stock markets [1]. - The A-share market, which had already been digesting gains from the second half of the year, has also been impacted by overseas market trends, leading to a decline in short-term holding confidence and an increase in profit-taking sentiment [1]. - Last week, the market experienced consecutive adjustments with reduced trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 60-day moving average and left a significant downward gap [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index also saw substantial adjustments, losing the 60-day moving average and widening its decline [1]. Trading Volume and Market Trends - The average daily trading volume for both markets last week was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1]. - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in defensive sectors, while small-cap and technology stocks led the decline [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index faced technical resistance, leading to a downward adjustment and returning to the consolidation range observed in August and September [1]. - The index encountered technical resistance at the end of the previous week, resulting in a sudden downward adjustment that continued into the following week, breaking through multiple short- and medium-term moving averages [1]. - Currently, the index has returned to the horizontal consolidation range from August and September, and it is advised to closely monitor the effectiveness of the previous support levels [1].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Wande All A index dropping by 3.17% and the Wande All A Equal Weight Index falling by 3.74% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45% at 3834.89 points, breaching the 3900-point level [1] - The market's performance indicates a bearish trend, as the Wande All A index fell below the lower Bollinger Band [1][5] Global Market Influence - The decline in A-shares is part of a global market trend, initiated by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, particularly the Nasdaq 100, which fell over 2% after opening more than 2% higher [2] - Nvidia's earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations, led to a 3.15% drop in its stock, indicating that the market is trading on "whisper numbers" rather than consensus estimates [4][6] - The U.S. labor market report showed a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls but also a rise in the unemployment rate, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [6] Sector Performance - The "consumption downgrade" narrative is emerging in the U.S., with Walmart's stock rising by 6.46% due to strong earnings, while Target's stock fell by 2.79% due to disappointing results [7] - In the A-share market, micro-cap stocks led the decline, with the Wande Micro-cap Index dropping by 4.87%, reflecting a retreat in risk appetite [11] - Traditional defensive sectors, such as banks and insurance, showed some resilience, but overall market sentiment remains weak [31][34] Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is approaching its 100-day moving average, which has historically served as a support level [8] - A significant number of sectors, including steel and chemicals, experienced declines of around 4%, indicating a broad-based sell-off [19] - The market's risk appetite has diminished significantly, as evidenced by the sharp declines in traditionally lower-risk sectors [19] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions in light of the current market conditions [20][22] - The sentiment among different models varies, with some suggesting a reduction in exposure to 20% while others maintain a more optimistic stance [21][22] - The overall market outlook remains uncertain, heavily influenced by external factors such as U.S. market stability and economic indicators [31][34]