Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday has led to increased attention on private equity fund positioning and their outlook for post-holiday market trends [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for market trends post-holiday [2][4] - The overall private equity position index has risen to a new high for the year, reaching 78.41%, reflecting a general trend of increasing positions among private equity funds [5] - A majority of private equity funds believe that the recent market adjustments have mitigated risks, leading to an expectation of continued market rebound post-holiday [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity funds hold an optimistic view regarding the A-share market's performance after the holiday, anticipating a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [7] - 62.50% of private equity funds expect a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [7][8] - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds prioritizing sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals for investment [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - Private equity funds are particularly optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support and economic transformation, such as AI and semiconductors [8][10] - Some funds are also looking at opportunities in undervalued sectors like renewable energy and real estate, anticipating valuation recovery [8][10] - The investment strategy is expected to balance between growth and value, with a focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for recovery [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the fourth week of September, the new - home market in the real estate sector heated up while the second - hand home market cooled down. The "Golden September" effect remains to be seen, but the year - on - year central value is positive, and the second - hand home market in first - tier cities has shown some repair after policy relaxation. Land transactions and premiums are at a low level. [2] - On the production side, freight volume in the industrial sector remains high, coal consumption per day continues to decline, and the industry's operating rates are differentiated. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand have slightly recovered, black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has significantly increased. [2] - In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remains high, and freight rates have generally decreased month - on - month but recovered year - on - year. [2] - In the consumption sector, travel enthusiasm remains resilient, automobile consumption is basically flat, and National Day travel orders are booming. [2] - In terms of prices, crude oil is significantly affected by supply and geopolitical factors, black - series prices are generally strong, and copper prices have risen due to supply - expectation disturbances. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel enthusiasm is differentiated. Subway travel has decreased, the congestion delay index has increased, and flight operation rates are lower than those of the same period last year. [3][7] - Automobile consumption is basically flat, textile consumption has recovered, and express delivery collection volume is at a high level. [3][8] - The National Day travel flow and orders are booming. New - type and cross - border tourism are on the rise, and consumption and prices may increase. [3][9] 2. Real Estate - New - home transaction heat has increased, with third - tier cities leading in structure. Second - hand home market heat has declined, and high - level cities' second - hand home markets have slightly cooled down. [6][11] - Second - hand home listing prices and volumes have both decreased. [6][12] - Land market premiums and transaction volumes are at a low level. [6][12] - Last week, real estate policies continued to strengthen on the demand side, including measures in Shanghai and Dongguan. [13] 3. Production - Coal consumption per day has decreased, hydropower generation remains high, and coal prices have increased. [14][15] - Construction industry funds in place have increased year - on - year, with a differentiation between housing construction and non - housing construction funds. [16] - Cement supply and demand have increased, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, inventory has decreased, and prices are differentiated. Asphalt operating rate has increased, and prices have risen. PVC operating rate has increased, and styrene operating rate has decreased. [16][17] - Freight volume heat continues, and operating rates are differentiated between upstream and downstream. [18] 4. Construction Industry - Construction industry construction funds have increased year - on - year. [16] - Cement supply and demand have improved, with demand stronger than supply, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has increased year - on - year. [4][16][17] 5. External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput remain resilient. [4][19] - Freight rates: RJ/CRB year - on - year growth rate has decreased, BDI has recovered, international route freight rates have weakened, and domestic import freight rates have increased month - on - month. [4][19][20] - South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September and Vietnam's exports in the first half of September have shown positive year - on - year growth. [4][19] - The preliminary values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in September have declined, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly fallen into the contraction range. [4][20] 6. Prices - The agricultural product index has increased, while the domestic Nanhua industrial product index and the external RJ/CRB index have decreased. [5] - Crude oil, coke, rebar, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices have increased, and iron ore prices have slightly decreased. [5][22][23]

Core Insights - Changsha has maintained a stable and improving business economy amidst complex challenges, achieving a retail sales total of 367.946 billion yuan from January to August, a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The city's total import and export value reached 186.24 billion yuan, accounting for over 53.1% of the province's total, with a growth rate exceeding the provincial average by 7.3 percentage points [1] - Actual foreign investment increased by 32.1%, representing 43.2% of the province's total, with 133 major projects introduced, totaling an investment of 115.42 billion yuan [1] Business Strategies - The business system in Changsha aims to intensify efforts in the third and fourth quarters to meet annual targets, focusing on consumer promotion through events like the "National Day Price Reduction" and "Fortune in Star City" [1] - For foreign trade, the emphasis will be on market expansion and service support, particularly targeting emerging markets in Africa and ASEAN, while fostering new foreign trade business models [1] - Investment attraction strategies will focus on precise targeting of Fortune 500 companies, industry leaders, and hidden champions, while exploring new models such as fund and scenario-based investment [1] - Safety regulation in key locations will be prioritized to combat market disruptions [1]

Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]

Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a contraction, with major players having exited, leaving weaker participants struggling to recover losses [1] - Today's trading volume is lower than last Friday, indicating a cautious sentiment ahead of the holiday [1][4] Sector Performance - Technology stocks are rising, but other sectors such as liquor, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, banking, and insurance are declining, suggesting a shift in capital from consumer and dividend stocks to technology [1][6] - The main focus for investment should be on technology sectors, particularly robotics and semiconductors, rather than consumer or dividend stocks [6] Trading Dynamics - Buy-side strength is at 1990+, with limited selling pressure at 360+, indicating a manageable outflow of funds [4] - The majority of fund outflows occurred on Thursday and Friday, suggesting that any further selling pressure before the holiday may be minimal [4] Stock Trends - A total of 70 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 57 being genuine limit ups, indicating some bullish activity in the market [5] - There are 1434 stocks that have declined for three consecutive days, which is considered normal, while 208 stocks have declined for five days, indicating a lack of strong support [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on technology stocks as the main line of investment, while avoiding sectors that are experiencing consistent declines [6][10] - It is suggested that maintaining a well-structured portfolio before the holiday is a prudent strategy, as significant market movements are not expected until after the holiday [1][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the contrasting fortunes of top fund managers in the current market, particularly those focused on technology and growth sectors, compared to those heavily invested in traditional sectors like consumption and renewable energy [1][22][25] - Fund manager Liu Gesong, who previously achieved significant returns, has seen his products struggle, with some still 30% below their peak net value [1][13] - In contrast, technology-focused fund managers like Hu Yibin and Chen Hao have seen their products recover significantly, with some nearing or surpassing their 2021 highs [2][5][6] Group 2 - The current market is characterized as a "technology bull," with growth-oriented funds performing well, particularly in sectors like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][19] - Hu Yibin's performance stands out, with his flagship fund showing a 25% increase compared to its 2021 peak [2][4] - Chen Hao's fund has also performed well, achieving a 48.65% return year-to-date, with net values exceeding 2021 highs [6][8] Group 3 - Many former top fund managers who relied heavily on sectors like renewable energy are facing significant challenges, with some still far from recovering their previous highs [15][18] - The article notes that while some managers have adapted to new trends, others remain stuck in their previous strategies, leading to poor performance [28][30] - The medical sector has shown resilience, with top managers like Zhao Bei achieving substantial returns due to the innovative drug market, although they still face challenges in recovering from past losses [25][27] Group 4 - The articles emphasize the importance of adapting investment strategies to current market trends, with successful managers demonstrating the ability to pivot between sectors [28][31] - The long-term outlook for technology and medical sectors appears promising, driven by demographic trends and innovation, while traditional consumption sectors face more uncertainty [29][32] - The performance of fund managers is increasingly scrutinized based on their ability to help investors recover from previous losses, highlighting the need for effective strategy adjustments [28][30]

Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[4] - Manufacturing value added increased by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, reinforcing its core support role[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, a notable decline from 1.6% in the first seven months, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% in August[4] - Excluding real estate development investment, the cumulative growth rate reached 4.2%, highlighting real estate as a major drag on overall investment[4] - Private fixed asset investment fell by 2.3%, worsening from a 1.5% decline in the previous period, indicating weak vitality in private investment[4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment dropped by 12.9% year-on-year from January to August, with the decline accelerating from 12.0% in the first seven months[4] - In August alone, real estate investment fell by 19.5%, marking the largest monthly decline of the year[4] - New housing starts decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, reflecting developers' cautious long-term outlook despite a slight narrowing of the decline compared to mid-year[4] Consumer Spending - In August, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month[5] - The "trade-in" policy positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 14.3% and furniture by 18.6%[5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, continuing to outpace goods retail sales, driven by strong demand in tourism and cultural entertainment[5] Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain recovery momentum, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% for the year, despite anticipated slower growth in the third quarter compared to the second[5] - Risks include the potential slower-than-expected recovery of domestic demand, which could impact overall economic performance[5]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy continued to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, leading to increased internal differentiation [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth year-on-year was 5.2% in August, down from 5.7% in July, indicating a slight decline but still at a relatively high level [4][6] - The overall economic trend is expected to maintain a slow and stable trajectory with structural optimization, but demand recovery will take time [2][3] Production Sector - The production growth rate showed a slight decline, primarily due to external demand pressures and some upstream industries experiencing production cuts [4][6] - The production-sales rate decreased from 97.1% to 96.6%, indicating a marginal improvement in domestic consumption capacity [4] - Policy-related industries, such as transportation equipment and non-ferrous metals, showed resilience, while export and consumer-related sectors faced significant pressure [6][7] Service Sector - The service sector's production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year in August, down 0.2 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown [7] - High-value-added industries like information technology and finance showed growth, while leasing and business services faced challenges due to weak corporate expansion intentions [7] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.3% in August, primarily due to seasonal pressures from the influx of recent graduates into the labor market [9] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4% in August, down 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating a need for stronger consumption recovery [12][15] - Dining consumption showed signs of recovery, while retail sales growth for goods slowed down, reflecting a mixed performance across different categories [14][15] - Essential consumption categories faced declines, while some upgraded consumption categories showed resilience, supported by seasonal demand and policy measures [15] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth was 0.5% year-on-year for January to August, with August showing a significant decline of 7.1% compared to July [16][19] - Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all experienced negative growth, necessitating policy support to break the downward cycle [16][20] - The real estate sector continued to face fundamental pressures, with sales area and sales value both declining significantly year-on-year [20]