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铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250729
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade situation is stabilizing as the US reaches trade agreements with major economies, leading to a high - risk appetite in the market, a stronger US dollar index, record - high US stocks, and price adjustments in various commodities [2][4]. - In China, the introduction of a parenting subsidy system is expected to boost rural birth rates and consumption. Market sentiment has shifted after the exchange introduced risk - control measures, and prices are back to being driven by fundamentals. There is a need to be vigilant about short - term market adjustments and to focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs and keep global tariffs at 15 - 20%. The US and China are negotiating to extend the tariff and export - control truce for 90 days. Many countries are seeking tariff concessions from the US. The US is increasing pressure on Russia, causing oil prices to rise by over 2% [2]. - Domestic: The central government has introduced a parenting subsidy system, with each child receiving 3600 yuan per year until the age of 3. Market sentiment has changed after the exchange's risk - control measures, and the stock market is experiencing a volume - shrinking shock. There is a need to be cautious about short - term market adjustments and focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices continued to decline on Monday. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and China, and the US - EU new trade agreement has alleviated trade - war concerns. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but anticipates a possible rate cut in September. Short - term precious - metal prices are expected to be weak, but the downside is limited [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, and the London copper faced resistance at the 10,000 - dollar mark. The market expects that Chile may get a copper - tariff exemption from the US, causing a significant drop in US copper prices. First Quantum's copper production in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. The copper price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade talks [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the London aluminum was flat. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar index, and the aluminum social inventory increased. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and inventory trends should be monitored [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures decreased significantly. The market sentiment continued to decline, and the futures contract saw a large - scale reduction in positions. The supply is stable recently, and the consumption side is cautious. Alumina is expected to be in a stalemate and fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the fundamentals remained weak. High prices inhibited downstream purchases, and inventories increased. The zinc price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade talks and domestic policies [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The supply of lead is increasing marginally, but the consumption improvement in the peak season is insufficient, and inventories have slightly increased. The lead price is under pressure but supported by costs, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the consumption in the off - season was poor. The supply increased while the demand was weak, and inventories increased for two consecutive weeks. The tin price is expected to adjust at a high level, but the adjustment space is relatively limited [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined significantly. The supply is in a contraction trend, and the demand is weak overall. The futures price is expected to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the carbonate - lithium futures price was weak, while the spot price rose significantly. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and the short - term price is mainly driven by sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated. The tariff risk is cooling down, but the domestic anti - involution policy is still uncertain. The terminal market is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and domestic policies need to be monitored [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day and opened higher at night. The acceleration of sanctions against Russia and the improvement of the macro - sentiment are pushing up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Spot trading declined, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron - ore futures fluctuated at a high level. Overseas shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. The demand remains resilient, and the market is in a weak balance. The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, bean and rapeseed meal futures declined. The good growth conditions of US soybeans, Argentina's reduction of soybean export tax rates, and the increase in domestic bean - meal inventories are factors affecting the market. The domestic bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm - oil futures rose, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July, and the export demand decreased. The palm - oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]
中组部决定:徐新福履新职
券商中国· 2025-07-28 14:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the appointment of Xu Xinfeng as the new director and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the National Energy Investment Group, replacing his previous role as deputy general manager [1][2] - Xu Xinfeng has a long history with China National Petroleum Corporation, where he held various significant positions, including general manager of the Material and Equipment Department and secretary of the board [1] - The National Energy Investment Group was established on November 28, 2017, through the merger of China Guodian Corporation and Shenhua Group, and is recognized as a key state-owned energy enterprise, ranking 84th in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [2]
中美经贸会谈开始举行
券商中国· 2025-07-28 14:33
百万用户都在看 少林寺通报!释永信,正接受多部门联合调查! "超级周"来袭!中美大事!国常会,重要部署!证监会发声!人工智能、消费大利好,影响一周市场 的十大消息 关税突发!美国、欧盟,重大变数! A股重磅!"国家队",再度出手!中概股,全线上涨! 集体拉升!重磅"大单",突然来袭! 美联储,降息大消息! 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 责编:汪云鹏 校对: 廖胜超 当地时间7月28日,中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 来源:新华社 ...
北京:关闭全市所有景区
券商中国· 2025-07-28 13:04
7月28日,北京市气象台发布全市暴雨红色预警,市防汛指挥部启动全市防汛一级应急响应。根据《北京 市防汛应急预案》《北京市旅游防汛专项分指挥部防汛应急预案》规定,市旅游防汛分指挥部采取以下应 对措施: 1.关闭全市所有景区,并做好受威胁游客疏散避险; 2.全市乡村民宿、露营地暂停营业,及时劝返入住游客或将游客转移到安全避险场所; 3.暂停旅行社旅游活动,并尽到安全告知提示义务; 4.暂停有组织的文旅活动(含各类演出活动)和文化艺术类培训活动; 5.酒店要提示提醒入住客人非必要不外出或减少外出,做好相关服务保障。 6.各单位要及时将关闭和暂停信息向社会公告。 请广大市民游客自觉配合各项防汛应急措施实施,防汛一级应急响应期间不要到景区、乡村民宿、露营地 游玩,远离河道、山洪沟道、泄洪区域,停止涉山涉水户外活动,确保自身安全。 集体拉升!重磅"大单",突然来袭! 美联储,降息大消息! 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 责编:汪云鹏 校对: 廖胜超 百万用户都在看 少林寺通报!释永信,正接受多部门联合调查! "超级周"来袭!中美大事!国常会,重要部署!证监会发声!人工智 ...
深圳报告1例!
券商中国· 2025-07-28 05:57
广东疾控局2025年7月27日通报:2025年7月20日0时至7月26日24时,广东省新增报告2940例基孔肯 雅热本地病例,未报告重症和死亡病例。病例分布在佛山2882例,广州22例,中山18例,东莞、珠海、 河源各3例,江门、阳江、肇庆各2例,清远、深圳、湛江各1例。 A股重磅!"国家队",再度出手!中概股,全线上涨! 集体拉升!重磅"大单",突然来袭! 美联储,降息大消息! 百万用户都在看 少林寺通报!释永信,正接受多部门联合调查! "超级周"来袭!中美大事!国常会,重要部署!证监会发声!人工智能、消费大利好,影响一周市场 的十大消息 关税突发!美国、欧盟,重大变数! 截至7月26日24时,今年广东省累计报告4824例基孔肯雅热本地病例,均为轻症,无重症和死亡病例报 告。目前,已治愈出院和解除医学观察3224例。 综合自:南方都市报(nddaily)、深圳大件事(nandusz) 报道 责编:罗晓霞 校对:杨立林 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com ...
最新通报!中国佛教协会,注销释永信戒牒!
券商中国· 2025-07-28 03:48
来源:人民日报 责编:罗晓霞 校对:杨立林 百万用户都在看 少林寺通报!释永信,正接受多部门联合调查! "超级周"来袭!中美大事!国常会,重要部署!证监会发声!人工智能、消费大利好,影响一周市场 的十大消息 关税突发!美国、欧盟,重大变数! A股重磅!"国家队",再度出手!中概股,全线上涨! 集体拉升!重磅"大单",突然来袭! 美联储,降息大消息! 7月28日, 中国佛教协会发布公告,全文如下。 违法和不良信息举报电话:0755-83514034 邮箱:bwb@stcn.com 7月27日,少林寺管理处发布情况通报:少林寺住持释永信涉嫌刑事犯罪,挪用侵占项目资金寺院资产;长期 与多名女性保持不正当关系并育有私生子,严重违反佛教戒律。目前正在接受多部门联合调查。释永信的所作 所为性质十分恶劣,严重败坏了佛教界的声誉,损害了出家人的形象,中国佛教协会坚决拥护和支持对释永信 的依法处理决定。日前,我会收到河南省佛教协会报来《关于注销释永信戒牒的报告》。根据有关规定,我会 同意对释永信(俗名:刘应成)的戒牒予以注销。 ...
刚刚!嵩山少林景区再公告
券商中国· 2025-07-28 03:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Shaolin Scenic Area is implementing an online ticket reservation system starting from July 31, 2025, to manage visitor flow and enhance safety and experience during the peak summer tourism season [2]. - The announcement indicates that the scenic area will suspend offline ticket sales for full-price tickets and for visitors under 18 years old, while maintaining limited offline services for eligible visitors [2]. - The company expressed apologies for any inconvenience caused by the system upgrade and reassured that the original ticket purchasing channels remain unchanged [2]. Group 2 - The article mentions that the visitor numbers at the Shaolin Scenic Area are continuously increasing during the summer peak season [2]. - A contact number for inquiries is provided, indicating a commitment to customer service during the transition to the new ticketing system [2].
石破茂刚刚宣布
券商中国· 2025-07-27 12:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite increasing calls within the Liberal Democratic Party for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign, he intends to continue in his role [1] - Ishiba stated in an interview with NHK that he must take responsibility for the implementation of the recently announced US-Japan trade agreement [2]
基金大事件|基金二季报来了!最新公募规模数据出炉!
中国基金报· 2025-07-26 15:51
Group 1: Bond Underwriting - In the first half of 2025, 40 securities firms acted as main underwriters for green bonds, managing 71 bonds/products with a total amount of 59.444 billion yuan [2] - A total of 68 securities firms served as main underwriters for technology innovation bonds, underwriting 380 bonds with a total amount of 381.391 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Public Fund Management - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top three securities asset management firms by public fund management scale are Dongfanghong Asset Management, Huatai Securities Asset Management, and Bank of China Securities, each managing over 100 billion yuan [3] - Three equity fund managers from securities asset management firms have public fund management scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, specifically from Dongfanghong and Zhongtai Asset Management [3] Group 3: Public Fund Market Data - The total scale of public funds reached a record high of 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, surpassing the 34 trillion yuan mark [6] - Compared to the end of May, the public fund scale increased by over 650 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 1.93% [7] Group 4: Shenzhen Financial Data - As of the end of June 2025, the balance of various deposits in Shenzhen reached 14.16 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 600 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8] - The balance of loans in Shenzhen reached 9.85 trillion yuan, with an increase of over 350 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [8] Group 5: Gold Consumption - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with gold jewelry consumption down by 26% [10] - Gold bars and coins consumption increased by 23.69% year-on-year, totaling 264.242 tons [10] Group 6: Hong Kong Stock Market - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong led the world in new stock financing, with a significant increase in equity financing driven by improved investor sentiment [11] - Public funds have significantly increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, banking, media, and technology [14] Group 7: Private Equity Insights - A prominent private equity figure highlighted a "dumbbell" market opportunity structure, focusing on both value dividend assets and emerging growth assets [16] - Looking ahead, three structural opportunities are identified: revaluation of quality Chinese assets, globalization of advantageous Chinese industries, and technological self-sufficiency [17]
生产不温不火【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-07-25 15:19
Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]