1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, supported by cost, the probability of a sharp decline is small. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, within the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - There are both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include potential poor export situation of US soybeans due to US tariff policies, good weather in US soybean - growing areas leading to high yield expectations, and an expected 1.8% increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season. Bullish factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the US soybean balance sheet, and the possibility that La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The reasons were the market's expectation of discussions on US agricultural product procurement during the upcoming China - US official talks in Spain and a neutral WASD report. Next week, the focus will be on the China - US talks in Spain, the weather in the US and Brazil's main growing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [8]. - This week, US soybean meal prices rose. There was no obvious driving force, but the market expected that the new round of China - US talks would benefit agricultural product exports [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated and closed higher. The increase was driven by the rise in US soybean prices, while the decline in palm oil prices suppressed the upward trend [13]. - As of August 29, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $11.06 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.85 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 11, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.735 per bushel. As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 121.17 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 141.24 reais per bag [15][17][19][21][23]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 47% this week compared to 46% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US growing areas will be warmer, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be less. In Brazil, most growing areas have less precipitation, while Rio Grande do Sul has slightly more, which is unfavorable for sowing. In Argentina, soybean - growing areas have normal to high precipitation, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of the week ending September 5, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, down from 65% last week and the same as the same period last year [26][28][30][32][34][36]. Demand Factors - As of August 29, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.08 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 640,000 tons, up from 450,000 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 452,100 tons, down from 472,900 tons last week. The net sales this year were 1.3894 million tons, up from - 23,000 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 1.074 million tons, up from 818,400 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [39][41][43][45][47][49]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.738, indicating the entry into the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 2, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 4,100 lots, down from 19,200 lots last week. As of September 9, the net long position of soybean oil was 17,500 lots, down from 33,300 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 56,700 lots, down from 72,000 lots last week [52][54][60][62][64].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The US EPA faces significant resistance in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RINs from 2023 and 2024 to large refineries. If the previously set biofuel blending targets are met, it will be bullish for US soybean oil in the long - term. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 policy in 2026, which may increase palm oil demand by 3 million tons, but policy implementation is uncertain. With the gradual implementation of the B40 policy, the B50 policy provides some support [3][48]. - In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in August, with good export demand. Market institutions expect the ending stock of Malaysian palm oil in August to increase to 2.2 million tons, with a slightly loose supply. India's imports increased significantly in August due to festival stocking and cost - effectiveness, but future ship purchases are slow, and market transactions are sluggish. High prices suppress demand, and downstream maintains just - in - time procurement [3][48]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payroll data in August was far below expectations, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase production in October, pressuring oil prices. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [3][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Market Review - Since August, the oil sector has oscillated and closed higher. In the domestic market, at the end of August, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 to 9316 yuan/ton, up 4.46%; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 to 8358 yuan/ton, up 2.45%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 to 9789 yuan/ton, up 3.6%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 147 to 4377 ringgit/ton, up 3.48%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.65 to 52.1 cents/pound, down 4.84%; the ICE canola active contract fell 67.5 to 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.71%. In the spot market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices also rose [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812 million tons, up 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.309 million tons, up 3.82% month - on - month; domestic consumption was 483,000 tons, up 6.63% month - on - month; ending stock was 2.113 million tons, up 4.02% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons, which had a bullish impact [22]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In August, different data sources showed different trends in Malaysian palm oil production. In terms of exports, data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS all showed an increase in exports from August 1 - 31 compared to the same period last month [26]. 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.289 million tons, up 728,000 tons month - on - month and 1.244 million tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the total production was 27.89 million tons, higher than the same period last year [33]. 3.2.4 India Vegetable Oil Imports - In July 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.55 million tons, up 20,000 tons month - on - month and down 290,000 tons year - on - year. Different oils had different import trends [35]. 3.2.5 China Oil Imports - In July 2025, China's palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil imports showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The total imports of the three major oils decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [40][43]. 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.4091 million tons, up 2600 tons from the previous week and 2.913 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of different oils also had different changes [45]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Biofuel policy progress and implementation have uncertainties. In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the supply is slightly loose. India's imports are affected by festivals and prices. Macroeconomic factors and oil price trends also impact the palm oil market. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [48][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market of agricultural products is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends in the short - term and long - term, and some products may be suitable for long - term investment, while others need to wait for better opportunities [2][3][4] Summaries by Category Soybean - related - **Soybean (Domestic)**: After the decline in prices digested the negative news, the short positions in the domestic soybean main contract decreased, and the price rebounded. The policy - side is holding auctions, with an increase in the auction success rate. The marginal supply in the market has increased, and market participants will conduct competitive procurement this week. The domestic soybean crop is expected to be good, and new soybeans will be on the market in late September. Attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season soybeans [2] - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Internationally, due to bio - diesel policies, the global oil market is strong, which may drive up soybean crushing volume, resulting in an "oil - strong, meal - weak" situation. In the domestic market, the US tariff policy will continue to affect the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The high cost of imported Brazilian beans limits the decline of domestic bean meal. Although the soybean arrival volume in the next three months is sufficient, there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3] Oil - related - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to supply and has support from demand. The short - term domestic soybean supply is still loose, and the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. The supply - demand situation of palm oil in Malaysia has improved, and that in Indonesia is better. Considering the long - term development of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia, investors can consider buying bean and palm oil at low prices while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed - related - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed futures in the international market is under short - term pressure as rapeseeds in Canada, the EU, and Australia are about to be harvested. The supply of rapeseed will be relatively abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The short - term futures market may stabilize, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of the international rapeseed harvest [6] Other Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have shown signs of stabilization. The new - season corn crop is expected to be good due to favorable weather. Some traders in northern ports have expanded their warehouses in advance. The short - term market may be stable, and the long - term market may be weak [7] - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main contract of live - hog futures opened high and closed low. The pig - to - grain ratio is still below 6:1. The supply of live - hogs is expected to increase in September, but demand may also be supported by festivals. The price of live - hogs may still face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to policies and the release of supply [8] - **Eggs**: On Monday, the egg futures market continued to increase positions. The spot price of eggs did not rise significantly during the back - to - school season. Due to continuous losses, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the number of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. If the spot price of eggs does not rebound in September, more old hens may be culled around the Mid - autumn Festival. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, investors can consider going long, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish; soybean oil is neutral to bearish. The heavy rain in Malaysia in the next week may bring bullish weather speculation. The good rate of US soybeans has been further raised, and other fundamental changes are not significant. Indonesia's low inventory in June and the firm export price still support the international palm oil price. US soybean pod numbers are excellent, but the yield per unit is slightly lower than USDA's forecast. There is still an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed cannot temporarily supplement the rapeseed oil supply [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before. Countries such as Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are actively promoting biodiesel policies, which is the biggest driver for the tightening of oil and fat supply. There may be state reserves to digest the high - inventory demand [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory increased last week, which has a bearish expectation difference compared with the previous expectation of "inventory peaking and de - stocking", mainly affecting the basis and the spread between months to weaken [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral to bullish. The previous expectations remain unchanged. The US has an interest - rate cut expectation, the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy is exhausted, there is an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the Indonesian government is determined to implement B50 but the progress is expected to be slow [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction. The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Call options. Unilateral: Buy on dips. Risk concerns: Crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances. Arbitrage: Go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts such as P9 - 1, Y9 - 1, OI9 - 1, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][10][12] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past, present, and future periods [19][21][23] - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][36] - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][42] - **Indian Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: It includes the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [43][45][47] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [49][51][53] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate in the US soybean - producing areas, as well as the export situation of the US and Brazil [61][64][73] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation**: It presents the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and the export and domestic arrival situation of rapeseed [88][99][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It includes the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly production of soybean oil in domestic crushing plants, the daily trading volume of soybean oil, the weekly inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed oil [87][108][112]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, with CBOT US soybean oil futures dropping significantly due to difficulties in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments [4][7]. - Affected by the weakening external market, the domestic commodity market continued to decline and adjust, with a generally weak sentiment. In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month, providing support for prices. However, after the phased positive factors were gradually realized, market drivers weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate, and oil prices were also in a fluctuating state. Fundamentally, there may be significant resistance in redistributing the US biodiesel exemption volume for the 2023 - 2024 period to large refineries, causing US soybean oil prices to continue to fall. Malaysian palm oil is currently in a peak production period, but high - frequency data shows that the overall supply pressure is not large, which may support prices. In the short term, palm oil prices may decline and adjust [4][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 22 to August 29, CBOT soybean oil futures dropped 3.1 to 52.1 cents per pound, a 5.62% decline; BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 154 to 4377 ringgit per ton, a 3.4% decline; DCE palm oil futures decreased 276 to 9316 yuan per ton, a 2.88% decline; DCE soybean oil futures dropped 100 to 8358 yuan per ton, a 1.18% decline; CZCE rapeseed oil futures decreased 101 to 9789 yuan per ton, a 1.02% decline [5]. - The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also declined to varying degrees [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The continuous decline of US soybean oil prices was mainly due to the difficulty of redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments. The domestic commodity market was affected by the weakening external market and continued to decline and adjust [4][7]. - In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month. According to different data sources, the export volume from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 36.41% compared with the same period last month [7][8][9]. - As of August 22, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4091 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week and 0.2913 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory increased, palm oil inventory decreased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [9]. - As of August 29, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions decreased from the previous week, while that of palm oil increased [10]. - Short - term palm oil prices may decline and adjust, but the supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil is not large, which may support prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy in the fourth - quarter off - season [4][10]. Industry News - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's appeal [11]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry organization IVPA urged the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022, stating that these restrictions have tightened operating funds and hindered industry investment [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST) [11][12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][38][43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Bullish)**: None - **Sell (Bearish)**: None - **Neutral**: None - **One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Three Stars**: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Ratings**: None - **Bearish Ratings**: None - **Neutral or Wait - and - See Ratings**: Corn,生猪,鸡蛋,菜粕,菜油,豆油,棕榈油,豆粕,豆一 (where one star indicates a weak bullish or bearish bias with low operability on the market, and white stars indicate a balanced state with poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, weather, and international trade negotiations. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, it is advisable to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 【豆一】 - The price of soybeans is weakly declining. Policy - driven continuous auction sales of soybeans increase supply - side pressure, and demand is weak. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market, with domestic soybeans showing stronger performance than imported soybeans, causing the price spread between domestic and imported soybeans to rebound from a low level. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [2] 【大豆&豆粕】 - Today, the Dalian soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly. The national spot price slightly declined. A vice - minister of the Ministry of Commerce went to Canada, which may signal an improvement in China - Canada relations. Global oils are strengthening due to bio - diesel policies, which may drive up soybean crushing. China's soybean supply is relatively sufficient in the third quarter but may face a shortage in the first quarter of next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas poses challenges to new - season crops. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] 【豆油&棕榈油】 - Soybean and palm oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations are reflected in the market. Malaysian palm oil production decreased month - on - month. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. Long - term development trends of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices while controlling risks. Short - term focus should be on soybean policy orientation [4] 【菜粕&菜油】 - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures decreased with reduced positions. The market is still watching the soybean situation in China - US economic and trade negotiations. The rapeseed market is in a state of inventory reduction, and far - month ship purchases are limited. The average expected production data from Statistics Canada is 20.3 million tons, but there is a possibility of underestimation. In the short - term, the price fluctuation range of rapeseed products is narrowing, and it is advisable to wait and see [6] 【玉米】 - Today, the Dalian corn futures continued to rebound with reduced positions. The current futures price is in line with market expectations for the new - season corn opening price. This year, the domestic corn - producing areas have good weather, and new - season corn may have a bumper harvest. Under the background of falling US corn prices, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] 【生猪】 - Live hog futures continued to decline weakly. The spot price was slightly adjusted. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. From the perspective of new - born piglets, the supply of live hogs in the second half of the year is high. The spot price of live hogs is expected to continue to decline weakly in the medium - term. Policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but the inflection point of capacity reduction has not been seen. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [8] 【鸡蛋】 - Egg futures continued to decline sharply with increased positions. The spot price was stable with slight declines in some areas. There may be a seasonal rebound in egg prices from late August to September. In the medium - to - long - term, there are signs of accelerated culling of old hens. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of the year is high, and the inflection point of the egg price cycle may occur in the second half of the year. It is advisable to consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year at low prices [9]