Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

机构观点 华联期货： 消息面 马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOC）：受豆油市场走强及印度节日需求推动，预计未来一个月毛棕榈油价格 将在4100至4300林吉特/吨区间波动。 截至7月18日（第29周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存59.14万吨，环比上周增加2.84万吨，增幅 5.04%；同比去年47.89万吨增加11.25万吨，增幅23.49%。 2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期增加7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.16%，产量 环比上月同期增加6.19%。 ITS和AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚7月1-20日棕榈油出口量环比分别减少3.5%和7.3%。ITS发布的出口降 幅有所缩小，但AmSpec发布的出口降幅有所扩大，二者有所分化，还需关注后续的数据。美生柴政策 和印尼生柴政策长期利好油脂。预计国内油脂短期或震荡偏强。操作上，建议棕榈油09支撑位参考8500 附近。 中辉期货： 本月前十五日马棕榈油出口及产量数据偏空。但印尼官方称年内有足够资金完成B40目标，并完成B50 的研究测试工作，扫去市场之前的质疑，利多国际棕榈油价格走高，马来方面，马棕榈油调增8月出口 关税，相当于提高国内棕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 27.5 to close at 1035 cents per bushel, a 2.73% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 80 to close at 3056 yuan per ton, a 2.69% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 30 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 1.06% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 89 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 3.38% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 3.59% increase [4][7]. - The U.S. soybeans closed higher in a volatile market. Firstly, the U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and driven by the boost of the biodiesel policy, the strength of U.S. soybean oil led to the increase. Secondly, the export sales progress of new - crop soybeans accelerated, and the agricultural product procurement agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia was conducive to increasing the export demand for U.S. agricultural products. Thirdly, precipitation in the production areas during the critical growth period in August might decrease compared with the previous period, and the temperature would rise, with the possibility of drought still existing. The Brazilian premium fluctuated within a limited range, and combined with the strength of the external market, there was support from the import cost. There was an expectation of tight soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and there was still no news of soybean procurement. The Dalian soybean meal rose in a volatile market. In the near - term, soybean meal was in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, the supply was relatively loose, and the rebound strength of the spot price was limited [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the production areas will be slightly higher than the average, but the precipitation forecast at the end of July has decreased compared with the previous period, and the temperature is relatively high, so there are still concerns about drought. Attention should be paid to the U.S. tariff trade negotiations, as an agricultural product agreement may be reached, which is conducive to boosting the export expectations of U.S. agricultural products. Under the effect of the U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil has risen significantly, supporting the increase in U.S. soybeans. The near - term crushing capacity utilization rate is at a high level, the spot supply is sufficient, and the rebound strength is limited. Attention should be paid to further Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations. If the relationship improves, it may be conducive to starting the procurement of U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian premium is stable, and the increase in the external market has raised the import cost. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may run in a slightly stronger and volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 18 | July 11 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1035.00 | 1007.50 | 27.50 | 2.73% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 472.00 | 467.00 | 5.00 | 1.07% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 458.00 | 452.00 | 6.00 | 1.33% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 17.41 | - 32.57 | 15.16 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3056.00 | 2976.00 | 80.00 | 2.69% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2722.00 | 2633.00 | 89.00 | 3.38% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 334.00 | 343.00 | - 9.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2900.00 | 2830.00 | 70.00 | 2.47% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2850.00 | 2820.00 | 30.00 | 1.06% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 206.00 | - 156.00 | - 50.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean market: The U.S. soybean crushing volume in June was higher than the average expectation of market analysts, and the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought. The export sales of U.S. soybeans showed different trends in different periods. The 2024/2025 annual cumulative export sales volume was 5065 tons, with a sales progress of 99.8%. The 2025/2026 annual weekly export net sales were 53 tons, and the cumulative sales volume of this year was 237 tons [7][8][9]. - Brazilian soybean market: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in July was expected to be 1219 tons. The 2025 soybean production forecast in Brazil reached a record 1.697 billion tons, and the processing volume and export volume forecasts were also adjusted upwards [10][15]. - Inventory situation: As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 88.62 tons, the unexecuted contracts were 548.8 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 tons. As of the week ending July 18, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the weekly average daily pick - up volume was 185,240 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.26 days [10][11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean export in the first two weeks of July was 4,331,243.97 tons, with an average daily export volume of 481,249.33 tons, a 1.61% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in July last year [12]. - As of the week ending July 2, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan, Canada was 58.97%. As of the week ending July 8, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 63.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed was at different growth stages [12]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 7 to July 11 was 443.58 reais per ton [13]. - As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed import volumes were all lower than the same period last year [13]. - The 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production was expected to remain at 3.25 million tons, and the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans [14]. - The U.S. renewable fuel blending credit limit in June increased compared with May. The ethanol (D6) blending credit limit was about 1.25 billion gallons, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credit limit increased from 602 million gallons last month to 629 million gallons in June [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 49.5 million tons [15]. Relevant Charts The report includes 28 charts, covering the trends of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rates, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][29][31][35][38][39][41][43][48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards, with a price range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariffs on the world, good weather in US soybean - growing regions with high yield prospects, and higher - than - expected weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate [5]. - Positive factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight old - crop balance sheet, strong concerns about drought in US soybean - growing regions under ENSO neutral conditions, and a slightly lower - than - expected planting area [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Prices - This week, the US soybean price rebounded by 23.5 cents, driven by progress in US - Indonesia trade negotiations, strong expectation of continued improvement in China - US relations, and a record - high US soybean crush volume in June [7]. - Next week, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff policies towards other countries and the weather in US main - growing regions [8]. - The US soybean meal price rebounded from a low by $3.7 per short ton to $274 per short ton, as trade negotiations between the US and countries like Indonesia and Vietnam improved the export demand expectation for US agricultural products [11]. - The US soybean oil price rose to 55.82 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.07 cents per pound, propelled by biodiesel expectations, impressive NOPA June crush and inventory data, and rising crude oil prices [15]. - As of the week ending July 11, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly decreased, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) declined, while the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased [17][19][22]. - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 113.24 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose by 1.63 to 137.77 reais per bag [24][26]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing regions continued to improve, with a drought rate of 26% this week compared to 32% last week [29]. - In the next two weeks, temperatures in central and southern US will be higher than normal, and most of the US soybean - growing regions will have normal to slightly above - normal precipitation (except Nebraska, which will have less precipitation) [31][33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing regions is normal to above - normal [36][37]. - As of the week ending July 11, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 66% last week and 68% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of the week ending July 11, the US soybean crush profit was $2.46 per bushel, up from $2.43 last week [42]. - The weekly US soybean export volume was 276,400 tons, down from 395,800 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 147,000 tons, down from 389,300 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 271,800 tons, down from 500,300 tons last week, and the sales for next year were 529,500 tons, up from 248,400 tons last week [44][46][48]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.472, approaching the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of July 15, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 17,400 lots, up from 11,700 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 58,200 lots, up from 53,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 113,800 lots, down from 117,800 lots last week [63][65][67].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 113 to close at 4,175 ringgit/ton, a 2.78% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 210 to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, a 2.48% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 42 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 168 to close at 9,439 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decrease; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.97 to close at 53.57 cents/pound, a 1.78% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 36.1 to close at 683 Canadian dollars/ton, a 5.02% decrease [4][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and closed higher, but there was internal differentiation. Palm oil was the strongest. Although the MPOB report showed that export demand was lower than expected, domestic consumption increased significantly, and inventory continued to rise, which was slightly bearish overall, the export data in July showed a month - on - month increase. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, and there is an expectation of a B50 policy in the future. Coupled with the boost from the recovery of the domestic commodity market, palm oil had a large increase. The improvement of precipitation expectations in the Canadian canola - producing areas and the expectation of EU production recovery led to a decline in canola, dragging down domestic rapeseed oil. Although US soybean oil was supported by the expectation of the biodiesel policy, the decline of US soybeans during the week dragged it down [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US unilaterally issued a tax - levying letter, with a compressed negotiation time, and the process is expected to be slow. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's CPI data. Fundamentally, although the June MPOB report was slightly bearish, the recent strengthening of oil prices, the good export data in July, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy increasing biodiesel consumption, and the expectation of B50 implementation next year supported the strong performance of palm oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the trading data of various contracts from July 4th to July 11th, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the futures spreads between soybean and palm oil, rapeseed and palm oil, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector showed internal differentiation. Palm oil was strong due to factors such as export data improvement, policy support, and market sentiment. Rapeseed oil was weak because of the expected improvement in Canadian canola production and EU production recovery. US soybean oil was affected by the decline of US soybeans despite biodiesel policy expectations [7]. - The June MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.031 million tons, a 2.41% month - on - month increase; production was 1.692 million tons, a 4.48% month - on - month decrease; export volume was 1.259 million tons, a 10.52% month - on - month decrease; and consumption was 455,000 tons, a 43.79% month - on - month increase [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 10, 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production decreased by 35.28%. Different shipping survey agencies had different data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10, 2025, with ITS showing a 5.32% increase, AmSpec showing an 11.95% increase, and SGS showing a 28.14% decrease [7][8]. - As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.254 million tons, an increase of 34,400 tons from the previous week and 371,700 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 1,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 535,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 62,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 699,600 tons, a decrease of 27,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 308,600 tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 12,920 tons, compared with 6,440 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 370 tons, compared with 486 tons in the previous week [8]. Industry News - An Indian agricultural minister called on the central government to modify the palm oil import policy, increase the import tariff to 44%, and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic oil palm farmers [10]. - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation Industries said that the demand for Malaysian palm oil products in industrial applications, especially in food processing in sub - Saharan Africa, is increasing. Exports to North Africa increased by 63.5% in 2024, and exports to sub - Saharan Africa increased by 26% year - on - year in the first five months of 2025 [10]. - BMI expects that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons, but industrial demand may slow down due to factors such as the slow progress of biodiesel targets and stricter restrictions on waste cooking oil trade [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils [12 - 47].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 美生柴提振国内油脂 棕榈油震荡收涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨50收于4062林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.25%；棕榈油09合约涨96收于8472元/吨，涨幅1.15%； 豆油09合约跌58收于7944元/吨，跌幅0.72%；菜油09合约 涨141收于9607元/吨，涨幅1.49%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.92 收于54. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to the high - yield in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans rebounded from a low level. Before the quarterly inventory and acreage reports, the price declined. The old - crop inventory was higher than expected, but the new - crop acreage was lower than expected. There were high expectations of improved Sino - US relations, and the "big and beautiful" bill of the Trump administration boosted the price of US soybean oil, thereby raising the price of soybeans. Next week, attention should be paid to the changes after the expiration of the US tariff suspension policy on other countries and the weather conditions in the US main production areas [7]. - After the quarterly inventory report and acreage report, the price of US soybean meal bottomed out and rebounded with the increase in soybean prices, and the bearish expectation eased slightly [10]. - Crude oil strengthened slightly, and factors such as the "big and beautiful" bill pushed up the price of US soybean oil [14]. - As of the week ending June 27, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly declined [17]. - As of June 27, the purchase price at farms (Iowa) decreased [19]. - As of July 3, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa rebounded [21]. - The spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, remained basically stable [23]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil increased slightly [25]. 2. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 30%, compared to 32% last week [28]. - The temperature in the eastern US soybean production areas was relatively high, while that in the central - western regions was normal [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate that most of the US soybean production areas will receive normal to slightly above - normal precipitation [32]. - Precipitation in Brazil's production areas was low [36]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean production areas was normal to above - normal [37]. - As of June 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the same as last week and 67% in the same period last year [40]. 3. Demand Factors - As of June 27, the crushing profit of US soybeans was 2.43 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.61 dollars last week [43]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 251,500 tons, compared to 266,000 tons last week [45]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 224,700 tons, compared to 192,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 462,400 tons, compared to 402,900 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 239,000 tons, compared to 156,100 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 4. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) was - 0.09, indicating a neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US decreased [59][61]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 46,700 lots, compared to 84,900 lots last week [65]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 58,800 lots, compared to 61,800 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 101,700 lots, compared to 102,800 lots last week [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][7][10]. - For rapeseed oil, the Canadian government has adjusted the estimated production and planting area of rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The continuous drought in western Canada has raised concerns about rapeseed yields. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate has reduced the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may tighten again, which may affect rapeseed exports to China [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased, and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the market price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the operating rate of oil mills, and the supply is relatively loose, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [6]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market outlook: The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2024 has been increased, but the planting area in 2025 has been revised down. The dry weather in western Canada has affected the yield expectations. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure on mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations are factors to be considered [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [9]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: The USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the supply of rapeseed meal, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 323,968 lots, an increase of 4,565 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net long positions increased from +23,230 to +24,789 [16][21]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 564,558 lots, a decrease of 28,543 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net short positions decreased from - 35,816 to - 4,491 [16][21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 805 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 16,232 lots [25][26]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,730 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu is +123 yuan/ton [35]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,430 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal is - 167 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is +71 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is +271 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [47]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.699, and the average ratio of spot prices is 4.0 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,663 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,135 yuan/ton, both showing narrow - range fluctuations this week [59]. - The spread between the 09 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 357 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 340 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 are 260,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 3, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +222 yuan/ton. As of the 26th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 56,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, with an operating rate of 13.82%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons [69][74][78][82]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 884,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 111,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons [87]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons. As of May 31, the catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.13% [91][95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 194,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 103,900 tons [99][103]. - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons [107]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of July 4, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 17.22%, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term rebound of soybean meal futures may face profit - taking pressure. However, based on the elasticity of future US weather and the expectation of higher costs for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections. The risk factors are the improvement of weather conditions and tariff situations [6]. - The supply pressure causes the US soybean futures to run weakly, but considering the positive effects of biodiesel policies, there is expected to be support at the bottom, waiting for the data guidance from the end - of - June report [6]. - The trading volume of soybean meal has been good since June. When prices are low, downstream buyers are willing to make safety purchases, but when prices rise, it's difficult to see continuous high - volume trading. The price of soybean meal will still be mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: - For the soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased. The trading volume of 2509 was 964,679, and its closing price was 2961, with a gain of 0.78%. The trading volume of 2511 was 72,620, and its closing price was 2998, with a gain of 0.77%. The trading volume of 2507 was 18,510, and its closing price was 2855, with a gain of 1.64% [6]. - The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1025 cents. After a rebound due to the positive news of US soybean oil, the price dropped significantly last week because of the good growth of new US soybeans and sufficient rainfall in the main production areas [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Futures operation should be cautiously bullish on the fourth - quarter contracts after corrections, considering the future US weather and the expected increase in the cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending June 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 55.91 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in exports for the current market year was 40.29 million tons, and for the next market year was 15.62 million tons. The export shipment was 26.56 million tons [9]. - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [9]. - **EU Import Data**: As of June 22, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.76 million tons (compared to 3.41 million tons last year), soybean imports were 13.79 million tons (compared to 12.89 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 18.88 million tons (compared to 14.93 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 7.16 million tons (compared to 5.59 million tons last year) [10].

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...