Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with the overall trend being range - bound. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to cost and supply - demand changes [3][5]. - The EPA policy supports the central level of the oil market, but there are still many negative factors. The market is expected to show an oscillating trend, with potential for an upward movement in the fourth quarter [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12][13]. - The cotton market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [15][16]. - The egg market is currently in a bottoming - out period, with limited short - term rebound space. A strategy of waiting for a rebound and then short - selling is recommended [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term upward trend, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [22]. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, U.S. soybeans fell slightly. Good weather in North America and potential impacts of the trade war on exports pressured prices, but low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with concerns about insufficient future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices were stable. According to MYSTEEL, 2.2954 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3803 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is favorable in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian soybean premium has risen slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream pick - up, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the purchase of soybeans from September to January is cost - supported due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, and from June 1 - 15, they are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16%. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and production increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. According to MYSTEEL, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils last week was 2.298 million tons (+40,000 tons), compared with 1.9653 million tons in the same period last year. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the seasonal accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high is due to the high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, domestic palm oil oscillated and declined, affected by weak high - frequency export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by recent diplomatic contacts between China and Canada and China and Australia, and the decline in foreign rapeseed prices. Overall, the EPA policy has raised the annual operating center of the oil market, but the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly, and there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The U.S. biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the central level of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July to September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 6,030 - 6,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,810 - 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,180 - 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 228 yuan/ton. According to UNICA data, in the second half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.7 million tons, a decrease of 6.3 million tons or 12.86% from the same period last year; the sugar - to - cane ratio was 53.15%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points from the same period last year; the sugar production was 2.845 million tons, a decrease of 424,000 tons or 12.98% from the same period last year [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Theoretically, the domestic production and sales situation is still good. With the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year, the spread of near - month contracts should go long, and the spread of far - month contracts should go short. However, the actual market trend is the opposite, making the valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar higher than other contracts. Assuming that the foreign market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 13,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,320 yuan/ton. According to USDA data, as of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 54%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past four years; the budding rate was 61%, an increase of 13 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the same period last year, but slightly higher than the five - year average [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. counter - tariffs, partly reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, the recent strengthening of the basis between futures and spot is not conducive to downstream consumption. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices. It is expected that the cotton price will remain oscillating in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [16]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The prices of eggs across the country were mostly stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.58 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, with a few areas experiencing a slowdown. All sectors mostly purchased and sold in line with the market trend, and the inventory was not large. It is expected that the egg price will remain stable today, with a few areas experiencing slight fluctuations [18][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Despite continuous losses, the reduction in production capacity is still limited. The large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The current spot price has gradually entered the bottom - building range, but the short - term rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large open interest, time is not favorable for near - month long positions. For far - month contracts, the potential for a seasonal rebound is uncertain due to the ineffective reduction in production capacity. A strategy of waiting for a rebound and then short - selling is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Since late June, the spot price of pigs has rebounded significantly, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and a decline in body weight, indicating a seasonal decrease in supply in the middle of the year. With a relatively low proportion of retail farmers and a large price difference between fat and standard pigs, there is still room for an increase in the second - fattening pen. This plays a supporting role from the side [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the current situation where the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the futures market, especially the near - month contracts, is at a discount, the downward space is limited. There may still be room for short - term long positions, but in the medium term, supply back - log and the pressure of hedging positions need to be considered [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures in Malaysia may face pressure due to potential production growth in July, with a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are influenced by Malaysian palm oil trends. For soybean oil, although the USDA report adjusted the data, the impact on prices is limited. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the basis quotation is under pressure [1]. Meal and Grains - The market sentiment for soybeans is pessimistic due to the USDA's report and concerns about tariffs. However, the Brazilian soybean is firm as the Brazilian premium continues to rise. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is increasing, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The soybean meal futures may have short - term upward potential [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig spot market is weak. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Although the current breeding profit has returned to a low level, there is no basis for a significant decline. The market expects a potential market in July and August, but the actual supply may increase, and the 09 contract on the futures has upward pressure [7][9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market's weak sentiment is being released. The price decline is slowing down as the remaining grain decreases. In the medium term, the supply is tight, and the demand from the breeding industry is increasing, which will support the corn price. Attention should be paid to the auction results and subsequent supply scale [11]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited, maintaining a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and it is advisable to take a bearish approach after the price rebounds [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects egg production. The egg price has reached a phased low, and demand may improve due to potential promotions and increased replenishment by traders. The egg price may rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [16]. Cotton - The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry is intensifying. The downstream is facing difficulties, but the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is on the market still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range, but there is a risk of decline if the downstream remains weak [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.12%); the Y2509 futures price was 7,994 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.10%); the basis was 236 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 7.09%). On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 34 yuan, up 14 yuan [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 11, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,770 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.34%); the P2509 futures price was 8,748 yuan, up 66 yuan (0.76%); the basis was 22 yuan, down 96 yuan. On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 30 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 11.76%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,610 yuan, unchanged; the 01509 futures price was 9,424 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.16%); the basis was 186 yuan, up 15 yuan (8.77%) [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,830 yuan, unchanged; the M2509 futures price was 2,992 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.54%); the basis was - 162 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 10.96%). The Brazilian 9 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 74 yuan, up 26 yuan (54.2%) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.79%); the RM2509 futures price was 2,659 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.99%); the basis was - 109 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 5.83%). The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 304 yuan, up 22 yuan (7.80%) [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,131 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.73%); the basis was - 171 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 21.28%). The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3,637 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.50%); the basis was 23 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 43.90%) [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%); the price of the 2509 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.42%); the 9 - 11 spread was 680 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 2.86%) [7]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; in Liaoning was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong was 16,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan was 14,410 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [7]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2509 futures price was 2,302 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.17%); the basis was 48 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 11.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 14.67%); the import profit was 546 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.21%) [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2509 futures price was 2,647 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.34%); the basis was 53 yuan, up 9 yuan (20.45%); the 9 - 1 spread was 37 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 15.91%); the starch - corn futures spread was 345 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 1.43%) [11]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,639 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price of the 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.12%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 178 yuan, up 3 yuan (1.66%) [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.43%); the basis in Nanning was 243 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 2.80%); the basis in Kunming was 88 yuan, up 18 yuan (25.71%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,602 yuan/500KG, up 22 yuan (0.61%); the price of the 08 contract was 3,461 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 9 - 8 spread was 138 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.17%) [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.72 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan (8.40%); the basis was - 740 yuan/500KG, up 192 yuan (20.59%) [16]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of the 2601 contract was 13,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 7.69%) [19]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.12%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.19%); the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan (- 0.38%) [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand conditions. It is expected to have an overall range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of low valuation, short - term high supply, and cost support, with a mixed long - short situation [2][5]. - The global soybean import cost is currently stable, but there is a risk of unexpected decline due to potential trade war easing or macro - impacts [3]. - The global soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, while the domestic soybean meal market has cost support due to procurement issues related to Sino - US tariffs [5]. - The EPA policy has increased the annual operating center of the oil market, but there are still negative factors such as high production in Southeast Asian palm oil regions, and the market is expected to be volatile [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August [16]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the short - term rebound space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. - The pig market has a certain degree of support in the short term, but there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Catalog Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean price slightly declined. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans increased by 4% to 70%. The North American weather is good, and the potential impact of the trade war on exports continues to put pressure on US soybeans. However, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and recent sales of old - crop soybeans and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean meal futures slightly rose on Monday. According to MYSTEEL statistics, last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2954 million tons, and this week, it is expected to be 2.3803 million tons. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 886,200 (+64,000) tons, and the port soybean inventory was 8.231 (+0.343) million tons [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is currently oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where long - short factors are intertwined. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%. From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8%, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8%. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. Last week, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.298 (+0.04) million tons, mainly due to seasonal inventory accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high inventory was due to high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the center of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July - September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as volatile [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,817 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan or 0.12% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable compared with the previous trading day. According to the latest data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.6855 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,875 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan or 0.07% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of the week of July 11, the spinning mill's operating rate was 70.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 39.3%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.61 million tons, a 140,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new drivers [16]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few increases. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and the inventory in each link was generally small. Today, the egg price is expected to be stable, with a few fluctuations [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to continuous losses, the degree of production capacity clearance is still limited, and the large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The short - term rebound space is restricted by inventory. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large positions, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pig - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 14.65 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.17 yuan to 13.84 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume may remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is in a stalemate. Today, the pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has significantly rebounded, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and weight decline, indicating a seasonal supply reduction in the middle of the year. In the short term, there is support for the market, but in the medium term, there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging [21].

农产品早报 2025-07-14 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆小幅下跌，USDA 月报未能提供利好，且新作全球大豆期末库存被调高。北美天气较好及贸 易战可能波及出口继续施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，且近期旧作销售较好及生物柴油政策支撑需求， 整体维持区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2820 元/吨，上周油厂豆粕成交下滑，提货仍 较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 229.54 万吨，本周预计压榨 238.03 万吨。饲料企业库存天数 为 7.92（+0.01）天。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，中美大豆 关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall situation is complex, with both upward and downward pressures. The domestic bean meal market is also multi - faceted, with a combination of low valuation, high short - term supply, and cost support [2][4]. - The palm oil market shows mixed trends in production, exports, and inventory. The overall situation of the global vegetable oil market is also complex, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [6][8]. - The sugar market is expected to face a downward trend in the future due to the increase in import supply [11]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [14]. - The egg market's price is expected to show a short - term stable and slightly upward trend, with a more complex medium - term situation [18]. - The pig market is expected to have limited downward space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressures in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: U.S. soybeans are under pressure due to good weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports, but are supported by low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies. Domestic bean meal has high mill operation rates, good sales, and a tendency to accumulate inventory. The import cost of soybeans is temporarily stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the multi - faceted situation of the domestic bean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Vegetable Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of June are expected to increase, but overall exports, production, and inventory show different trends. The total inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils is increasing. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased slightly in June, but exports were lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly. The EPA policy is positive for the vegetable oil market, but there are still negative factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The vegetable oil market is expected to be volatile. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin may maintain stable inventory. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Thursday. The predicted sugar production and cane crushing volume in the second half of June in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year due to rainfall [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the import profit window is currently at its best in the past five years, the supply of imported sugar is likely to increase in the second half of the year, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly on Thursday. Trump postponed the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" to August 1 [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential increase in import quotas is a negative factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new driving factors [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable on the previous day, with a slight increase in the average price of the main production areas. The supply is stable, the downstream digestion speed is slightly faster, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the egg price will mostly rise today [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the spot price has limited upward and downward space, and the peak - season contracts are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, as the spot price increase is gradually realized, the focus will return to supply and the relatively large premium of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and wait for a rebound to short in the medium - term post - festival contracts [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling on the previous day. The supply in the northern market is relatively abundant, and the price may fall, while the southern market may mostly maintain stable prices. It is expected that the pig price will be stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has rebounded significantly, and the short - term downward space of the futures price is limited. However, in the medium term, attention should be paid to supply postponement and hedging pressure [21].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-07-10 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆跌幅。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主， 但也需要注意贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略】 斯小伟 外盘大豆进口成本目前受估值偏低、EPA 政策利多及 9-1 月大豆由巴西单独供应影响震荡运行，总体大 豆或蛋白供应仍过剩。国内豆粕市场则处于低估值、短期高供应、下游提货积极、饲企库存天数中性偏 高但 9-1 月大豆采购因中美关税存在成本支撑局面。因此豆粕市场多空交织，建议在豆粕成本区间低位 逢低试多，高位关注榨利、供应压力，等待中美关税进展及供应端新的驱动为主。 油脂 【重要资讯】 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z002249 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

农产品早报 2025-07-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆延续下跌，天气较好及贸易战可能波及出口施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑 需求，整体维持区间震荡趋势。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，华东报 2790 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高，豆粕 成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。 饲料企业库存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天，油厂豆粕库存超 80 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆跌幅。总体来看，大豆进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic futures showing a rebound and international prices remaining strong, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting future pricing trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - As of July 8, domestic palm oil futures opened at 8476 CNY/ton and showed a rebound with a current increase of 2.06%, reaching 8620 CNY/ton [1] - The market is characterized by mixed performance in the oilseed sector, with palm oil futures demonstrating stronger performance compared to other oil varieties [2] Group 2: International Market Dynamics - The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) palm oil futures opened at 4067 MYR/ton and are currently at 4120.6 MYR/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase, with intraday highs of 4126 MYR/ton [1] - The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a seasonal decline in production are anticipated to stabilize inventory levels, supporting prices [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil will outperform soybean and canola oils due to favorable growing conditions for soybeans and a lack of speculative drivers in the industry [2] - The expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production in June, coupled with good export demand, is likely to slow inventory growth, providing support for prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term trends indicate that biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. may reduce soybean oil exports, benefiting the price differential between soybean and palm oil and supporting palm oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the palm oil market remains cautious, with a focus on fundamental factors and potential policy impacts as key risk elements [2]

| | | | VY V SDIC FUIL FUIURES | | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | 豆粕 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 玉米 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤铺情适宜。预计未来10天，华北、东北地区及西北地区东部多阵雨或雷阵雨天 气，较常年同期偏多3～6成、降雨利于补充土壤水分，对作物生长有利。政策方面短期国产大豆举行购销 ...