Group 1 - The U.S. EPA proposed reallocating 100%, 50%, 0%, 25%, and 75% of the small refinery exemption volumes for 2023-2025 to the 2026-2027 biofuel blending obligations, but the final announcement is likely delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown [1] - Malaysia's MPOB report released on October 10 indicated a slight decrease in palm oil production to 1.8412 million tons in September, while exports increased to 1.4276 million tons, leading to a significant rise in palm oil inventory to 2.3610 million tons [1] - The SPPOMA data shows a 6.86% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil production for the first half of October, while the ITS data indicates a 3.4% increase in palm oil exports for the same period [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 3.02% in August, with expectations of rising inventories during the production cycle [2] - Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15% to support the transition to the B50 biodiesel program, which is expected to reduce palm oil export volumes [2] - China has implemented temporary anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola, but has resumed purchasing Australian canola, with 590,000 tons expected to arrive by December [2] Group 3 - The U.S. biodiesel policy announcement is expected to have a limited negative impact, while Indonesia's B50 progress is seen as a long-term positive for palm oil, leading to a bullish outlook for oils in the medium to long term [3] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October, and the U.S. biodiesel policy has not yet been finalized, making significant short-term price increases unlikely [3] - It is recommended to wait for signs of inventory reduction in palm oil and the finalization of the U.S. biodiesel policy before taking long positions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the high domestic soybean inventory and the lack of progress in U.S. soybean imports, along with the bean meal de - stocking season, offer some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The current situation shows a balanced or slightly loose supply - demand, but the future is expected to be tight. Before the inventories in sales areas and production areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand in sales areas, the strategy is to buy on dips in the medium - term [5][7]. - **Sugar**: Considering the high sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the new season, the general trend is bearish, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - **Cotton**: Due to the resurgence of Sino - U.S. trade conflicts, weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, low downstream industry operating rates, and the expected domestic bumper harvest, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has a limited rebound expectation due to high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The fundamental situation is oversupply. The short - term spot price rebound is limited, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds for both near - term and far - term contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to Trump's friendly remarks and strong U.S. domestic spot prices. On Monday, the domestic bean meal spot price was flat, with weak trading but good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, port soybean inventory started to decline, and oil mill bean meal inventory continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 233.35 million tons this week, up from 216.6 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared with 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7% [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium - term [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4%. From October 1 - 15, its production increased by 6.86% month - on - month. As of October 17, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, up 5.13% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year; the national key area soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, down 3.25% week - on - week. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated with no obvious driving force. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium - term [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5428 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants all decreased by 20 yuan/ton. In the second half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 5.1% year - on - year increase in cane crushing volume, a 10.76% increase in sugar production, and a 3.44 - percentage - point increase in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13465 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton was flat. As of October 17, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week but down 7.6 percentage points year - on - year and 10.22 percentage points lower than the five - year average. In September 2025, China imported 10 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price dropped yesterday. The main production area's average price fell to 2.85 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, market sales are slow, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly decline today, with a few areas remaining stable [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday. However, there is a risk that the product price may not follow the increase, and the demand may decrease. The farmers' enthusiasm for selling is low, and some slaughterhouses still have a supply shortage. Today, the pig price may slightly increase with limited gains [19]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds as the fundamental situation is oversupply [20].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The overall supply - demand pattern of the market is stable, with both long and short factors coexisting and a lack of strong trends. Future attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9312.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 10 yuan or - 0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8256.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00 yuan or + 0.05%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9935.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan or + 0.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or - 0.22%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 122.00, a decrease of 10.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton or - 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or + 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 315.00, an increase of 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Indonesia is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blended fuel program for international flights departing from Jakarta and Bali in 2026. The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) increased by 3, 3, and 1 dollars/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes also increased by 2 cents/bushel for all regions. Last week (October 5 - 11), Brazil exported 1538934 tons of soybeans, 266768 tons of soybean meal, and 902772 tons of corn, and this week (October 12 - 18) it plans to export 2153936 tons of soybeans, 672337 tons of soybean meal, and 1889800 tons of corn [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and protein meals, the domestic supply pressure is high, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, there is some support, and the market will mainly move in a range [2][3][4]. - For oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, while in the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see [5][6]. - For sugar, with the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production, and Brazil's central - southern region's production is at a historical high. A strategy of selling on rebounds in the fourth quarter is recommended [10][11]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, including low demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, low downstream industry operating rates, and high selling - hedging pressure from the expected domestic bumper harvest, the cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [13][14]. - For eggs, in the short - term, a bearish view on near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound, and in the long - term, selling on rebounds is advisable [16][17][19]. - For pigs, the supply pressure is high in the fourth quarter. For near - term contracts, reduce short positions, and consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes. For far - term contracts, a reverse spread strategy is recommended [20][21]. Summary by Category Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Tuesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 2.1674 million tons this week. Brazil's ANEC expects the country's soybean exports in October to be 7.31 million tons [2][3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, the market will move in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month. As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2651 million tons, a 1.31% increase, and the palm oil commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons. On Tuesday, domestic oils rebounded. Indonesia is considering implementing DMO for the 2026 B50 policy. Trump considered banning edible oils from China [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [6]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar in major regions also declined. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The downstream industry's operating rates were lower than the same period in previous years. The cotton weekly commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a decrease compared to the same period last year and the five - year average [13]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is likely to decline in the short - term [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable, with a few fluctuations. The market supply was normal, and the trading speed increased [16]. - **Strategy**: Bearish on near - term contracts in the short - term; expect a medium - term rebound; sell on rebounds in the long - term [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend. The secondary fattening enthusiasm was slowly rising, and the market trading activity was fair [20]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts; consider a positive spread strategy after the spot price stabilizes; a reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - and long - term trend of oils and fats is upward, but there may be a short - term correction due to Sino - US trade frictions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Reasons include expected heavy rain in palm oil producing areas in India and Malaysia in the next two weeks, reduced oil mill crushing volume, and a trend of inventory reduction for three major oils [5] - **Demand**: Wait - and - see. The B50 policy in Indonesia is being actively promoted, the US biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is undetermined and may depend on trade frictions, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower trading volume compared to the same period [5] - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Although the total domestic oils and fats inventory increased last week mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up, it is expected to decline overall later considering soybean oil mills' reduced crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills' lack of raw materials [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. There is uncertainty about RVO. Sino - US trade frictions have tightened the outlook for distant - month soybeans, Indonesia's B50 is in road tests and expected to be implemented in the second half of next year [5] - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Long oils and short meals in distant months, and long the January contract and short the May contract for palm oil; Options: Buy out - of - the - money call options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oils and fats contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5 spreads, and spot price spreads between domestic soybean oil, palm oil, etc [7][9][14] 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows future precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia [19][21] - **Indonesia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [30][34] - **Malaysia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are provided [35][41] - **India Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is given [42][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit are shown [48][50] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes future precipitation and temperature forecasts in US soybean - producing areas, soybean's excellent - good rate, leaf - falling rate, harvesting progress, and US and Brazilian export data [60][70][72] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory are presented [88] - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: Future precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, and relevant export and arrival data are shown [89][98][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on rapeseed FOB price, Canadian weekly rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and relevant production, inventory, and trading volume data of rapeseed oil are provided [102][103][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - India and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited palm oil production growth potential in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply - demand, with a tight expectation. Before the inventories in consumption areas and origin are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in consumption area demand, the medium - term outlook is oscillating and bullish. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and adopt a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach for now [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the prices of the three major oils declined. Foreign capital seats reduced their net long positions in oils, mainly due to average palm oil export data from Malaysia, indicating either weak downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Mid - month, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly due to short - term discounted soybean oil sales in Argentina, and then rebounded due to the mid - term global palm oil supply - demand balance and a tight - supply expectation at the end of the year. During the National Day holiday, the proposed B50 plan in Indonesia for 2026 and the expected reduction of 500 million tons of palm oil exports led to a sharp rebound in the oil market [11] - **International Oils**: The MPOB monthly report on October 10 showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. Indonesian data lags, but if production cannot remain high in the long term and global oil demand is stable, Indonesian inventory is expected to remain low. After the fourth quarter, the production season will enter a decline phase. Both Indian and Indonesian inventories are lower year - on - year, which will support palm oil prices in the medium and long term [11] - **Domestic Oils**: In September, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was decent, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 325,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient oil supply. Rapeseed oil inventory was 187,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 47,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a high - level and slightly declining trend. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a slightly below - neutral level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the de - stocking process. However, due to the high margin required for Canadian rapeseed imports, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bullish unilateral strategy. Given the current high valuation, observe high - frequency data and use a buy - on - dips - after - stabilization approach [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The document presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of FCPOV25.MDE FOB palm oil (Malaysia), palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: Charts show the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply situation of different oils [28][29][30] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, along with the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [34][36] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: Present the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, Indian imported vegetable oil inventory, palm oil import profit and commercial inventory, soybean oil spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory, rapeseed spot average crushing profit and East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory, and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil inventories, reflecting the inventory and profit situation of different oils [42][45][47] 5. Cost Side - **Cost Charts**: Show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, Malaysian palm oil import cost price, CNF import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, reflecting the cost situation of different oils [52][56] 6. Demand Side - **Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, reflecting the demand situation of different oils [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which may affect the demand for oils in the biodiesel field [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply of soybeans is expected to remain loose in the medium term, and the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. - For oils and fats, supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increasing demand for soybean oil due to the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and decreasing export volume expectations of Indonesia, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term [5][6][7]. - For sugar, considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the overall outlook is bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10][11]. - For cotton, both domestic and international factors suggest that the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [16][17][18]. - For pigs, due to factors such as excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly. The USDA report was postponed due to the government shutdown. On Thursday, domestic soybean meal futures were stable, and the spot price rose slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume from October 4th to 10th was 1.357 million tons. As of October 2nd, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium term, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies, while in the short term, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan, which will increase the demand for palm - based biofuels. Reuters estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September might decrease by 2.5% compared to August. On Thursday, domestic oils and fats rose significantly, mainly stimulated by the news of Indonesia's B50 plan [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventories, increasing demand, and decreasing export volume expectations, the oils and fats market is expected to remain strong in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a stable decline [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,528 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day. In September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Considering the high - yield situation in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,295 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The purchase price of seed cotton was lower than last year, and the downstream demand was weak [13]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic demand and high export pressure in the US, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support at around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price generally declined. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve significantly, and the market confidence is low [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term. However, potential inventory transfer after the holiday may support the spot price [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The slaughter enterprises had the intention to lower the purchase price, and the pig price was expected to continue to decline slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to excessive supply and weak demand, the short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to short near - term contracts and conduct reverse spreads [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market rose significantly, with the P2601 contract closing up 4.13% at 9570 points, hitting an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. - The fundamental situation shows a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. Malaysian palm oil inventory in September may decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production [2]. - The aggressive B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports, and rising crude oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is crucial. If the MPOB report in September meets market expectations, with an early production inflection point and a decline in inventory, the post - market trend of palm oil needs to be re - evaluated. In the fourth quarter, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market had a significant increase. The P2601 contract of palm oil closed up 4.13% at 9570 points, with an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: Multiple surveys show a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. The industry survey estimates production at 179.4 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease. MPOA estimates production at 181 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate production at 179 million tons and 178 million tons respectively, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Exports**: The industry survey estimates exports at 142.7 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase. Reuters and Bloomberg both estimate exports at 143 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: Different institutions have different estimates of consumption. The industry survey estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 23.5% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 24.5% month - on - month increase. Bloomberg estimates consumption at 48.5 million tons, a 32.9% month - on - month increase [2][5]. - **Inventory**: The industry survey estimates that inventory will drop to 214.6 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate inventory at 215 million tons and 216 million tons respectively [2]. 3.3 Biodiesel Policy Impact - **Indonesia**: Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program next year. Using B50 biodiesel requires 2010 thousand liters of palm oil to be mixed with diesel annually, compared to 1560 thousand liters for B40 biodiesel. This may reduce Indonesia's palm oil exports [6]. - **Brazil**: The plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may be postponed due to incomplete technical feasibility studies. This will mainly affect the biodiesel industry using soybean oil as a raw material [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the incremental demand for biodiesel supports the market performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is more important. If the MPOB report in September meets expectations, with a decline in production and inventory, and as the market enters the traditional seasonal production - reduction period and demand fades, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern in the fourth quarter [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, maintain low - buying and range - trading strategies as B50 road tests are ahead; for soybean oil, it opened higher following the rebound of US soybeans during the holiday [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,546 ringgit/ton with a 1.65% increase in the day - session and 4,560 ringgit/ton with a 0.33% increase in the night - session. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.29 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,090 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 168 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 310 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 206 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 816 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,088 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 192 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil was 244 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil was 523 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year after completing laboratory tests. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy needs 15.6 million kiloliters [2][3] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30, 2025 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.42% month - on - month from September 1 - 30, 2025. MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil output in September decreased by 2.35%, with a 6.17% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.35% increase in Sabah, a 6.62% increase in Sarawak, and a 3.44% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total output in September was 1.81 million tons [4] - Indonesia exported 16.2 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to August 2025, a 13.56% year - on - year increase, and the export volume in August alone reached 2.56 million tons [4] - A Reuters survey predicted that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September 2025 would be 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from August, the first decline in seven months; the output was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease from August, hitting the lowest level since June; the export volume was expected to be 1.43 million tons, a 7.7% increase from August [5] - Indian traders said that India's soybean oil imports in September increased by 37.3% month - on - month to 505,000 tons, the highest in three years. India's edible oil imports decreased by 0.7% month - on - month to 1.61 million tons, and its sunflower oil imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 272,000 tons, the highest in eight months [5] - S&P Global Commodity Insights lowered the forecast of the average yield per acre of US soybeans from 53.8 bushels/acre to 53.0 bushels/acre and the soybean output forecast from 4.306 billion bushels to 4.261 billion bushels. It also lowered the average yield per acre forecast of US corn from 189.1 bushels/acre to 185.5 bushels/acre and the 2025 corn output forecast from 16.768 billion bushels to 16.707 billion bushels [5] - StoneX reported that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season would reach 178.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the September forecast [6] - AgRural said that as of October 2, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the 2025/26 season reached 9% of the total sowing area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year [6] - The Argentine government ordered a suspension of the indefinite strike planned by the oilseed workers' union at the processing plants due to wage issues [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil was both 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [7]