Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][8] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Wait and see or short on rallies [1][16] - Tin: Range trading [1][18] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level for 01 contract [21][22] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level for 01 contract [23][24] - Benzene ethylene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level [24][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level as support [26] - Urea: Range - bound, 01 contract range 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - Methanol: Range - bound, 01 contract range 2030 - 2250 [29] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound and focus on 6800 support, PP to range - bound weakly and focus on 6500 support [31] - Soda ash: Short - selling for 01 contract [31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [34] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, range 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [35] - Red dates: Range - bound with a weak bias [36][37] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [38][39] - Eggs: Limited upside [40][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in range [42][43] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [44][45] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding, buy cautiously for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [45][51] Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external influences [5][7][10] - For most varieties, the short - term market is in a state of range - bound or with a certain bias, and investors need to pay attention to key price levels, supply - demand changes, and policy signals [21][23][26] - Some varieties are expected to have long - term positive trends, but short - term fluctuations and uncertainties still exist, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to market conditions [5][11][40] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures may range - bound in the short - term due to market hot - spot rotation and unclear main lines, but are long - term optimistic. The end of the US government shutdown, changes in China's social financing and loan data, and market regulatory policies are influencing factors [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to range - bound. The third - quarter monetary policy report shows a stable and moderately loose tone, and the follow - up interest - rate cut space is affected by the relationship between various interest rates [5] Black building materials - Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading. The coking coal market has weak demand and falling prices, while rebar has low valuation and limited downward space despite production and demand declines [1][7] - Glass is advised to sell call options. With production cuts, weak demand, high inventory, and no strong short - to - medium - term positive expectations, the market is bearish [8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is in high - level range - bound. Although there are long - term positive factors such as supply tightening and increasing demand, short - term price increases suppress downstream demand, and inventory accumulation may lead to price adjustments [10][11] - Aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand of aluminum and its upstream materials are complex, and the market is trading the expectation of overseas supply reduction, but there are risks of over - trading [10][12] - Nickel is suggested to wait and see or short on rallies. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings supply uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is for range trading. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak, and the price is supported by inventory levels [18] - Gold and silver are for range trading. Affected by the US government shutdown, employment data, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are in a short - term adjustment state but have medium - term support [18][20] Energy and chemicals - PVC, caustic soda, and benzene ethylene are expected to range - bound with a weak bias. They are affected by factors such as high supply, weak demand, cost fluctuations, and macro - policies [21][23][26] - Rubber is range - bound. Cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand support raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory is seasonally increasing [26] - Urea and methanol are range - bound. Urea production increases, and demand and inventory changes affect the price; methanol shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with inventory accumulation [28][29] - Polyolefins are expected to be range - bound with a weak bias. Supply pressure increases, demand improvement is limited, and cost support weakens [31] - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling for the 01 contract. Supply exceeds demand, and although cost increases, supply pressure remains high [31][33] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to range - bound. Global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by factors such as the progress of seed - cotton acquisition and Sino - US trade negotiations [34] - PTA is in low - level range - bound. Oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and weak fundamentals lead to inventory accumulation and price suppression [34][35] - Apples are range - bound with a strong bias. With the end of ground trading and the start of出库, the decrease in production and quality supports the price [35] - Red dates are range - bound with a weak bias. The purchase enthusiasm of merchants is low, and the price shows a slight decline [36][37] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: The short - term price is in narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to - long - term supply before the first half of next year remains high, with prices under pressure. Different contracts have different investment strategies [38][39][40] - Eggs: The short - term supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. The 12 - contract can be shorted on rallies, and the 01 - contract is range - bound [40][41] - Corn: The short - term price rebounds under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term has cost support but limited upside space. The 01 - contract can be hedged on rallies, and 3 - 5 positive spreads can be concerned [42][43] - Soybean meal: It is in range - bound. The US soybean market is affected by reports and Brazilian planting progress, and domestic prices are affected by supply and demand and policy expectations [44][45] - Oils and fats: They are expected to bottom - build and rebound. Different oils have different supply and demand situations, and short - term long - buying and certain spread - trading strategies are recommended [45][51]

11月13日，中国人民银行发布的金融统计数据显示，今年前10个月我国新增人民币贷款近15万亿元。新增贷款投向了哪些领域？信贷结构出现 哪些亮点？ 中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，10月末，我国人民币贷款余额270.61万亿元，同比增长6.5%；社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元， 同比增长8.5%。 "今年以来，金融总量保持合理增长，为实体经济提供了有力的金融支持。"西南财经大学中国金融研究院副教授万晓莉认为，今年以来，各家 银行积极运用各类结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等重点方向。 从新增信贷的结构来看，企业贷款增长呈现出一些亮点。 今年以来，企业贷款特别是企业中长期贷款新增较多，为企业投资提供了较为充足的资金支持。数据显示，前10个月，我国企（事）业单位贷 款增加13.79万亿元，是贷款增加的主力军。其中，中长期贷款增加8.32万亿元，占比超六成。 具体来看，信贷资金流向了哪里？ 记者从中国人民银行了解到，10月末，普惠小微贷款余额为35.77万亿元，同比增长11.6%；制造业中长期贷款余额为14.97万亿元，同比增长 7.9%。这些贷款增速均高于同期各项贷款 ...

11月13日，中国人民银行发布的金融统计数据显示，今年前10个月我国新增人民币贷款近15万亿元。新增贷款投向了哪些领域？信贷结构 出现哪些亮点？ 中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，10月末，我国人民币贷款余额270.61万亿元，同比增长6.5%；社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿 元，同比增长8.5%。 "今年以来，金融总量保持合理增长，为实体经济提供了有力的金融支持。"西南财经大学中国金融研究院副教授万晓莉认为，今年以来， 各家银行积极运用各类结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等重点方向。 从新增信贷的结构来看，企业贷款增长呈现出一些亮点。 记者从中国人民银行了解到，10月末，普惠小微贷款余额为35.77万亿元，同比增长11.6%；制造业中长期贷款余额为14.97万亿元，同比增 长7.9%。这些贷款增速均高于同期各项贷款增速。 "10月建行发布了支持新型工业化的服务方案，推出六大专项行动，力争未来三年制造业融资规模突破5万亿元。"中国建设银行公司业务部 总经理尚朝辉说，目前建行制造业中长期贷款持续增长，在制造业贷款中占比超过50%。 中国人民银行近日发布的2025年第三 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View The Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Report continues the main tone of "appropriately accommodative monetary policy" and emphasizes structural monetary policy and promoting a reasonable price recovery. Compared with the Q2 report, it focuses more on reducing banks' liability costs and promotes the transformation of the monetary policy framework. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the bond market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [1][4][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively loose social financing conditions - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains "appropriately accommodative," with the Q3 2025 report further emphasizing maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity through various monetary policy operations and promote a decline in overall financing costs, which may imply that bond yields may remain at low levels in the short term [1][5]. 2. Implement various structural monetary policy tools and emphasize financial support for technology, consumption, etc. - The Q3 2025 report mentioned leveraging the dual functions of total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, implementing various structural monetary policy tools, and increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, micro and small enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][6]. 3. Prioritize promoting a reasonable price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy implementation - The Q3 2025 report still emphasized promoting a reasonable recovery in prices. Although inflation data has stabilized, the absolute level remains low, and monetary policy needs to focus on promoting price recovery and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 4. Reduce banks' liability costs to widen the space for counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustments - The Q3 2025 report frequently mentioned reducing banks' liability costs. The central bank will improve the interest rate control framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and take measures to reduce banks' liability costs and drive down social financing costs. Some small and medium - sized banks have started to reduce deposit rates, and after net interest margins stabilize, the space for monetary policy will expand [2][7]. 5. Continue to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework - The monetary policy framework places more emphasis on the role of price - type regulation. Through deepening interest rate marketization reforms, it aims to smooth the interest rate transmission relationship from short to long and the comparison relationship between different asset yields [3][7].

赵伟对记者表示，在当前社会融资规模的主要支撑来自政府债券发行的背景下，此表述实际上从侧面凸 显了货币政策正着力加强与财政政策的协同配合。 在结构性货币政策工具方面，《报告》指出，发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，落实好各类结 构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸 等重点方向。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 央行日前发布了《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）。在国内经济形势方 面，《报告》指出，我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。同 时，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，要保持战略 定力，增强必胜信心，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟对《中国经营报》记者表示，《报告》指出"我国经济运行依然面临不 少风险挑战"，但新增"国内经济回升向好基础仍需加力巩固"的表述，这进一步突显政策层面对巩固经 济复苏态势的重视。同时，《报告》提出"要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心"，既表明对当前经济的清醒 认知，也传递出完成全年经济增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the next phase, utilizing various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions while improving the monetary policy framework and enhancing execution and transmission [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC's upcoming monetary policy will focus on maintaining a moderately accommodative stance and ensuring that social financing conditions remain relatively loose [1][4]. - The report indicates that structural monetary policy tools will continue to play a significant role in optimizing financing structures and supporting key areas of the economy [4][6]. Group 2: Financing Structure Optimization - As of the end of September, various types of loans have shown significant year-on-year growth: technology loans increased by 11.8%, green loans by 22.9%, inclusive loans by 11.2%, elderly care industry loans by 58.2%, and digital economy industry loans by 12.9% [3][12]. - The total balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the "Five Major Articles" reached 3.9 trillion yuan, indicating a reasonable growth in financial volume and low social financing costs [3][4]. Group 3: Focus on Key Areas - The growth rate of loans in areas related to the "Five Major Articles" has exceeded 10%, with elderly care industry loans approaching 60% growth [6][8]. - The PBOC's structural monetary policy tools are designed to incentivize financial institutions to support major national strategies and key areas of economic and social development [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The report emphasizes that future monetary policy will prioritize support for technological innovation, consumption stimulation, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][14]. - The balance of loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and technology loans accounted for over 30% of new loans [12].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, with no further interest rate cuts anticipated before the end of next year[1] - The weighted average loan rate (WALR) decreased by 5 basis points to 3.24% in Q3, with bill financing and general loans dropping by 13 and 2 basis points to 1.14% and 3.67% respectively[2] - Social financing growth slowed slightly to 8.7% year-on-year in Q3 from 8.9% at the end of Q2, indicating weak private sector financing demand[2] Economic Conditions - The central bank expresses confidence in achieving the annual growth target, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters[5] - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with concerns over inflation trends and geopolitical risks impacting financial stability[3] - Domestic inflation is expected to improve, supported by policies promoting consumption and the construction of a unified national market[3] Policy Focus - The central bank aims to enhance the monetary policy framework and optimize credit structure through structural policy tools, emphasizing the "Five Key Areas" of financial support[3] - The M2 money supply growth increased slightly to 8.4% year-on-year in Q3, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and asset reallocation[2] - The excess reserve ratio remained stable at 1.4%, indicating continued liquidity in the banking system[2]

Economic Analysis - The report emphasizes the increasing external instability and uncertainty, highlighting severe challenges to the international economic and trade order [2][20] - The global economic growth momentum has been adjusted from "weak" to "insufficient," indicating heightened concerns about the global economic outlook [2][20] - Domestically, while risks and challenges remain, there is a focus on reinforcing the foundation for economic recovery, with a call to maintain strategic determination and confidence [2][20] Policy Framework - The monetary policy stance has shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" to "implementing effective moderate easing," focusing on the effectiveness of policies [3][21] - The report introduces the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy [3][21] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises [3][7] Exchange Rate and Risk Management - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and enhancing expectation guidance [3][22] - The omission of previous warnings about preventing fund circularity suggests that related risks may have been controlled to some extent [3][22] Financial Indicators - The analysis of financial total indicators indicates that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, with a slight lag in loan growth being reasonable [4][8] - The report discusses the long-term impacts of financial market development and structural changes on monetary total and financial regulation [4][8] Digital Economy Support - The report outlines plans for the next phase of financial support for the digital economy, including the development of a financial technology plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period [4][23] Interest Rate Relationships - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, including central bank policy rates and market rates [4][23]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the financial "five major articles" reached 3.9 trillion yuan [1] Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will fully leverage the guiding role of monetary credit policy in the next phase [1] - The focus will be on solidly implementing the financial "five major articles" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," highlighting the relationship between base money and broader money supply, emphasizing that base money is the source of money creation and affects the banking system's asset-liability activities [1] Group 1: Base Money and Broad Money - Base money, also known as "high-powered money," is a liability of the central bank and includes cash in circulation, required reserves, and excess reserves held by commercial banks [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, China's base money balance reached 38.6 trillion yuan, while the broad money supply (M2) exceeded 335 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Money Creation Process - The money creation process involves the central bank, commercial banks, and the real economy, where commercial banks derive deposits through asset expansion, forming broad money [2] - The ability of commercial banks to create money is fundamentally influenced by the effective financing demand from the real economy [2] Group 3: Diversification of Financing Channels - The traditional reliance on bank loans for money creation is evolving, with commercial banks increasingly engaging in direct financing through bond purchases, which also generates deposits [3] - The proportion of bank loans in total bank assets remains around 60%, while the share of bonds has increased from approximately 20% at the end of 2019 to about 25% currently [4] Group 4: Structural Changes in Financing - The rapid development of direct financing and changes in the financing structure are leading to a more diversified money creation channel for banks [4] - The PBOC is innovating its base money injection methods and utilizing structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in optimizing credit allocation [4] Group 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The development of the financial market and changes in financing structure will have profound impacts on the total money supply and financial regulation [5] - There is a need to continue transforming the monetary policy framework to emphasize price-based regulation and deepen interest rate marketization reforms [5]