渣打银行（Standard Chartered Bank）高级投资策略师Foo Ken Yap表示，尽管市场对美国财政赤字的担 忧加剧，但美联储可能实施的降息举措或帮助缓冲债券市场受到的冲击，并支撑股市。 "（债券）收益率一直在攀升，"Foo Ken Yap指出，过去一个月市场预期的转变显著。"市场此前预计年 底前将有三次以上降息，而现在……很多情况已改变。" 渣打预计，受经济增速放缓及美联储最终行动的推动，美国10年期国债收益率将在12个月内从当前的约 4.59%降至4%-4.25%。 Foo Ken Yap表示："我们确实预期随着经济放缓，降息将在后期落地以支撑增长。" Foo Ken Yap对未来12个月的美国股市持建设性态度，并预计美联储最终将介入以支持经济增长，从而 推动债券收益率下降。 "'美国例外论'……暂时停顿，但我们认为其并未消失。增长仍在，人工智能（AI）仍在，"他指出，强 劲的企业投资和韧性的盈利预期是支撑因素。 他还重申了对黄金的长期乐观看法，称其为通胀和衰退风险中的有效对冲工具。"我们对黄金的12个月 目标价为3500美元，"Foo Ken Yap表示。 他补充称，尽管美国国会围绕支 ...

橡树资本管理公司联席董事长、全球杰出投资者之一霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）表示，美国仍然 是投资者的首选目的地。"如今，'美国例外论'这个词挂在每个人嘴边。过去80到100年里，美国确实在 世界上占据了主导地位，这得益于其充满活力的经济、对自由市场体系的尊重、对法治、资本市场的尊 重、创新精神等等。这些因素至今仍未消失。我认为美国仍然是投资者的首选目的地。"他说道。 ...

在前述华尔街投资基金经理看来，4月美国出台"对等关税"政策，不但冲击全球贸易格局，还影响全球 资本的债券配置策略。 一位华尔街投资基金经理通过微信采访向记者分析说，4月海外资金持续青睐中国境内债券，很大程度 是受到月初美国出台"对等关税"政策的影响——在美国出台"对等关税"政策后，美国金融市场多次出现 股债汇"三杀"状况，令全球投资机构纷纷质疑"美国例外论"，转而加快资产分散化配置步伐。 债券配置策略为何变了？ "4月以来，越来越多海外机构都在质疑美国例外论。"他向记者透露。所谓美国例外论，是指近年在全 球地缘政治风险升级等因素的影响下，全球主要经济体都遭遇不同程度的经济周期波动，但美国经济 则"独善其身"，始终保持较好增长。 4月，全球贸易环境骤变之际，海外资本愈加青睐中国人民币资产。 近日，国家外汇管理局副局长李斌表示，外资配置人民币资产意愿持续向好，4月外资净增持境内债券 109亿美元，处于较高水平；4月下旬外资投资境内股票转为净买入。 今年一季度，中国国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，延续去年以来持续稳中向好、稳中回升的态势，为外 资构建了稳定可靠的投资环境。 中国宏观经济运行整体回升向好，令人民币债券价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5% poses risks to U.S. equities but presents a buying opportunity for bonds [1] - Roth's chief economist Michael Darda suggests setting a trading range for the 10-year Treasury yield between 4% (sell) and 5% (buy), warning that reaching 5% could lead to a stock market pullback [1] - Since hitting a low of 3.99% in April, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, raising concerns among investors about fiscal issues and inflation impacts from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expresses a cautious outlook, indicating that the path for risk assets is narrowing again [2] - Goldman strategist Dominic Wilson is particularly worried about rising long-term yields due to international investor sell-offs coinciding with fiscal crises [2] - The report highlights that the U.S. faces the worst growth-inflation dynamics among G10 countries, suggesting that the erosion of the "U.S. exceptionalism" is costly during periods of high financing needs [2]

智通财经APP获悉，在评级机构穆迪于上周下调美国信用评级后，投资者对美国资产的信心进一步减弱，"卖出美国"交易再次成为焦点。然而，摩根士丹利 预计，美联储未来将进行一系列降息，这将支撑债券市场并提振企业盈利，该行因此上调了对美国股票和国债的投资建议。而对于美元，摩根士丹利则认 为，美元将继续走弱。 在5月20日发布的一份报告中，摩根士丹利全球跨资产策略研究主管Serena Tang等策略师表示，该行已将美国股票和主权债券的评级从"中性"上调至"增 持"。策略师在报告中表示，预计标普500指数将在2026年第二季度升至6,500点。策略师预计，美国国债收益率将在今年最后一个季度之前保持震荡走势， 届时市场将开始计入2026年的更多降息预期，这有望将10年期美债收益率在明年第二季度压低至3.45%。与此同时，策略师还预计，美元将继续走弱，因为 美国相对于其他经济体的增长溢价正在消退，与其他国家的利差也在缩小。 摩根士丹利策略师表示："我们认为，美股短期内不会重回4月份的低点，尤其是考虑到美股年初至今的几次大幅回调主要是对关税的反应。""我们的股票策 略团队预计，美国未来的政策议程将更为宽松，他们预测美联储将在20 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the removal of U.S. sovereign debt from the highest credit rating category by all three major rating agencies [1] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a "safe haven" asset and a core "anti-dollar" asset by global investors, especially in light of the U.S. credit rating downgrade [1][2] - Wall Street institutions are predicting a prolonged "dollar bear market," driven by the chaotic economic policies of the Trump administration [1][4] Group 2 - The current global economic design is fundamentally based on a debt model, where borrowing is often used to purchase tangible assets [3] - In a moderate inflation environment, equities like stocks are expected to perform well as they represent shares of productive assets [3] - The sentiment among Wall Street investors remains bearish on the dollar, with many hedge funds believing that a multi-year "dollar bear market" has just begun [4][5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, forecasting $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [5][6] - In extreme risk scenarios, gold prices could potentially rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that investor allocation to the dollar has dropped to a 19-year low, with 57% believing the dollar is overvalued [6][7] Group 4 - The "BIG strategy" proposed by Bank of America, which involves holding U.S. Treasuries, international stocks (excluding the U.S.), and gold, has shown to provide superior returns compared to the "Trump trade" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar faces depreciation risks due to potential fiscal crises or economic recessions, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos, who describes the current situation as "dollar fiscal frown" [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions and Dollar Outlook - Upcoming budget negotiations will significantly influence the dollar's position, with a loose fiscal stance likely leading to declines in both U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [1]. - A tightening fiscal stance could quickly reduce deficits but may push the U.S. into recession, resulting in a deep Federal Reserve easing cycle [1]. - A "soft landing" scenario would be more favorable for the dollar [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level since November 2023, while the dollar index fell by 0.7% [2]. - The Bloomberg dollar spot index has declined over 6% year-to-date, indicating weakening demand for U.S. assets amid trade tensions and policy uncertainties [2][3]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts continued weakness in the dollar against major currencies, predicting a 10% decline against the euro and 9% against the yen and pound by Q1 2025 [3]. - The firm notes that tariffs are compressing U.S. corporate profit margins and reducing real income for American households, potentially undermining the "American exceptionalism" narrative [3]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Sentiment - There is a deteriorating sentiment towards U.S. assets due to overseas consumer resistance to American products and a decline in inbound tourism following tariff announcements [5]. - Foreign central banks are reducing their reliance on the dollar, and private investors may soon follow suit if policy disruptions continue [5]. - The current tariff environment is characterized as "broad and unilateral," which may shift economic burdens more heavily onto the U.S. [5].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, expresses skepticism about the negative portrayal of Europe, asserting that he has never believed it to be as bad as described [1] Group 1 - Dimon emphasizes his belief in "American exceptionalism" [1]

美联储官员周一密集发声，博斯蒂克重申倾向于今年降息一次，威廉姆斯采取了平衡的语气，杰斐逊认 为目前观望政策发展是合适之举。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在周一重申他对美联储今年可能只会降息一次的预期时，强调了他对通胀的 担忧。 "鉴于我们双重使命的轨迹，我非常担心通胀方面，"博斯蒂克周一对CNBC表示，他指的是消费者对未 来价格上涨速度的预期。 博斯蒂克表示，在支持任何利率变化之前，他希望看到由关税和特朗普政府其他政策推动的高水平不确 定性消退——这一过程可能需要3到6个月。 "如今，情况变化非常大，存在很多不确定性，"博斯蒂克说，"对我来说，这意味着在我们的政策向任 何重大方向调整之前，我们必须理清头绪。" 他补充道，"我更倾向于今年一次降息，因为我认为我们需要时间。" 美联储官员本月早些时候维持基准利率不变，并表示失业率上升和通胀高企的风险均有所增加。美联储 主席鲍威尔强调，该央行并不急于降息。 博斯蒂克称，穆迪上周五下调美国债务评级，可能对寻求贷款的美国企业和家庭产生负面影响。 他说，"随着评级下调，这将对资本成本和其他一系列事情产生影响，因此可能对经济产生连锁反应。" 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯则在其最新讲话中 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，美联储威廉姆斯承认，在贸易动荡的背景下，对外国投资者撤离美国资产的担忧 确实存在，但他认为，美国"避风港"地位目前并未面临紧迫风险。威廉姆斯表示，这类担忧大多仍停留 在"人们只是谈论要不要讨论"的阶段。他表示，美国对全球投资者仍有独特的吸引力，他指出美国的技 术实力，并提到"美国例外论"直到最近还主导着全球贸易。威廉姆斯称："美国经济真的很有活力。老 实说，我们是人工智能宇宙的中心。" 美联储威廉姆斯：并未立即担心外国投资者抛售美国资产 ...