华东市场苯乙烯市场震荡走高，至收盘现货7570-7900（06合约+450附近），6月下7440-7530（07合约 +310附近），7月下7260-7400（07合约+148附近），单位：元/吨。美金市场整体走稳，内外盘价差维 持顺挂，但美金报盘有限，在装置检修带动下，欧美苯乙烯价格偏坚挺。 【苯乙烯现货】 【纯苯现货】 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，截至收盘江苏港口纯苯5下商谈5830/5880元/吨，6月下商谈5870/5920元/ 吨，7月下商谈5900/5950元/吨，8月下商谈5900/5950元/吨。 纯苯市场价格涨幅较明显，因关税风险回落提振商品市场情绪，推动原料价格持续上行的同时，苯乙烯 盘面上涨推动纯苯商谈价格也挺价跟进。苯乙烯方面新一周期港口库存止降累库，但短期库存绝对水平 偏低仍予以盘面向上弹性势能。但现货端市场高价货源压力大。中期看3S在低利润局面下对苯乙烯驱 动不足。建议短期谨慎观望。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 市场担忧 OPEC+继续加速增产，油价偏弱。周三 OPEC+部长级会议确立 | | | | 继续增产计划，原油远月压力较大，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下 | | | | 方存支撑，关注 OPEC+周六会议内容。SC【445-460】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 成本端拖累叠加沙特下调 CP 合同价，液化气短线偏弱。成本端油价受 | | | | OPEC+扩产走弱；仓单回落，近期仓单连续上涨压力下降；丙烷进口成本 | | | | 下降，PDH 开工率有上升预期。PG【4035-4080】 | | | | 基本面格局偏弱，华北基差为 35（环比-93）。停车比例继续降至 13%， 二季度仍有山东新时代、埃克森、裕龙合计 165 万吨新装置投产计划，供 | | L | 震荡 | 给充沛；农膜需求淡季，短期假期临近，下游阶段性逢低补库。策略上， | | | | 盘面持续下跌后震荡运行，中期仍存继续下跌风险，前期空单可继续持有。 | | | | L【6900-7050】 | | | | 华东拉丝基差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX unit maintenance ended and units returned, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon units also recovered. PTA basis weakened, and spot selling pressure increased. The positive spread in the market has weakened, and polyester factories' destocking is nearing completion. Polyester may experience a slight production cut [2]. - MEG market: East China ethylene glycol port inventory remains at over 700,000 tons. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol units has recovered, but coal prices have started to rise. With the upcoming maintenance of mainstream ethylene glycol units, it will enter a destocking phase [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price was 452.8 yuan/barrel, with a change of 6.90 yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX was 834, up 8 from the previous value. PX - naphtha spread was 266 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA main contract futures price was 4,716 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4,875 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee was - 23.0 yuan/ton, and the basis was 168 [2]. - **MEG**: Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot was negotiated at 4,531 - 4,533 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract futures price was 4,403 yuan/ton, and the basis was 100 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price was 6,990, FDY150D/96F was 7,230, DTY150D/48F was 8,220, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 6,660, semi - bright polyester chip was 5,905 [2]. 2.开工情况 - **PX**: PX operating rate was 77.29%, up 1.89% [2]. - **PTA**: PTA operating rate was 78.25%, down 1.03% [2]. - **MEG**: MEG operating rate was 50.00%, down 1.60% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Polyester load was 90.75%, down 0.36% [2]. 3. Sales and Production - **Polyester Filament**: POY sales - to - production ratio was 36%, FDY sales - to - production ratio was not provided, DTY sales - to - production ratio was not provided [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio was 45%, down 15% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Polyester chip sales - to - production ratio was 39%, up 13% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further production cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA market: PX supply has increased as PX device maintenance ended and device loads rose. PTA basis weakened, and there was selling pressure in the spot market. The long - spread trade has weakened, and PTA month - spread declined. Polyester factories' inventory improved, and there may be a slight reduction in polyester production [2]. - MEG market: East China's ethylene glycol port inventory remained at over 700,000 tons. Although coal - based ethylene glycol device load increase pressured the market, coal prices rose, squeezing the profit of coal - based devices. With mainstream device maintenance, ethylene glycol will enter a destocking phase [2]. - Polyester industry: Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts due to the recent rapid rise in raw material prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, 2025, to 453.7 yuan/barrel on May 22, 2025, a decrease of 16.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 836 to 823, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed from 266 to 246 [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 fell from 4788 yuan/ton to 4702 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4895 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee decreased by 13.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4411 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (92.07) to (89.26) [2]. - **Polyester Products**: Prices of POY, FDY, 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber, semi - bright chips, etc., generally declined, and the production and sales rates of polyester products decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 75.25% to 77.29%, a rise of 2.04% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate increased from 72.34% to 78.25%, a rise of 5.91% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate decreased from 52.26% to 50.00%, a decline of 2.26% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained unchanged at 91.11% [2]. Device Maintenance and Production Cuts - Three major polyester filament manufacturers decided to cut production of loss - making products immediately and plan further cuts in the short term due to the rapid rise in raw material prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].