【市场表现】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.18%，10年期主力合约跌0.08%，5年期主力合约跌 0.05%，2年期主力合约跌0.03%。银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷上行。截至17：00，30年期国债"25超 长特别国债02"收益率上行0.6bp报1.8820%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.7bp报1.7500%，10年 期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.5bp报1.6710%，2年期国债"25附息国债06"收益率上行1.5bp报 1.4075%。 【资金面】 央行公告称，7月14日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2262亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%， 投标量2262亿元，中标量2262亿元。数据显示，当日1065亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1197 亿元。流动性整体收敛，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率上行超8个bp，目前位于1.42%位置。七天质 押式回购利率则上行超6个bp，现位于1.53%位置。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业 存单最新成交在1.67%附近，较上日上行近2个bp。将进入税期，资金利率波动放大。14日央行公告， 为保持银行体系 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their first - half profits. The effects of loose monetary policies are evident, and the improvement in external demand has led to positive GDP expectations. The market anticipates positive second - quarter economic data, and the fundamental recovery supports the stock market. As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2509）最新价3985.8，环比下降13.0；IF次主力合约（2507）最新价4009.0，环比下降11.6；IH主力合约（2509）最新价2747.4，环比下降12.8；IH次主力合约（2507）最新价2751.8，环比下降23.2；IC主力合约（2509）最新价5897.6，环比下降18.0；IC次主力合约（2507）最新价6008.4，环比下降19.0；IM主力合约（2509）最新价6302.2，环比下降13.0；IM次主力合约（2507）最新价6442.2，环比下降13.0 [2] - IC - IF当月合约价差1257.2，环比下降9.0；IF - IH当月合约价差1999.4，环比下降2.8；IC - IH当月合约价差3256.6，环比下降11.8；IM - IC当月合约价差433.8，环比下降5.0；IM - IH当月合约价差3690.4，环比下降7.8；IM - IF当月合约价差2433.2，环比下降2.0 [2] - IF下季 - 当月为 - 23.2，环比下降4.8；IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.8，环比下降1.4；IH下季 - 当月为 - 4.4，环比下降8.2；IH当季 - 当月为 - 1.8，环比上升0.2；IC下季 - 当月为 - 110.8，环比下降4.8；IC当季 - 当月为 - 233.8，环比下降7.0；IM下季 - 当月为 - 140.0，环比下降4.6；IM当季 - 当月为 - 321.4，环比下降4.6 [2] - IF前20名净持仓为 - 29,007.00，环比下降735.0；IH前20名净持仓环比上升2211.0；IC前20名净持仓为 - 11,851.00，环比上升885.0；IM前20名净持仓环比上升1903.0 [2] - IF主力合约基差环比上升2.9；IH主力合约基差环比上升1.0；IC主力合约基差环比下降6.2；IM主力合约基差环比上升1.2 [2] b. Market Sentiment Data - A股成交额（日）为14,809.22亿元，环比上升20.81；两融余额（前一交易日）为18,757.94亿元，环比下降2556.88；逆回购（到期量，操作量）为2455.04亿元，环比上升432.40；北向成交合计（前一交易日）为 - 1065.0亿元，环比上升2262.0；MLF（续作量，净投放）为 - 405.03亿元；主力资金（昨日，今日）为 - 119.66亿元 [2] - Shibor（日）为1.415%，环比上升0.082；上涨股票比例（日）为58.69%，环比上升4.03；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率环比下降8.00；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2507）为28.80，环比下降0.59；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率环比下降1.20；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2507）为18.40，环比下降0.59；成交量PCR环比上升0.01；沪深300指数20日波动率为8.69%，环比上升13.64；持仓量PCR为74.76%，环比下降0.36 [2] - 技术面：Wind市场强弱分析中，全部A股为5.90，环比上升0.50；资金面为6.00，环比下降0.60 [2] c. Industry News - On July 14, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 6.3%), imports increased by 2.3% (previous value: - 2.1%), and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7435.6 billion yuan). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased by 2.7%, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. In June, exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), imports increased by 1.1% (previous value: - 3.4%), and the trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars (previous value: 1032.2 billion US dollars). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, imports decreased by 3.9%, and the trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [2] - On July 14, the central bank announced that in the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, 363.3 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [2] - As of 21:00 on July 13, 510 A - share listed companies had released their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, of which 301 were positive, with a positive forecast ratio of about 59.02% [2] - According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, foreign capital has increased its holdings of A - shares for two consecutive quarters. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, north - bound funds held 2907 stocks, with a total market value of about 2.29 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2024, the market value of north - bound funds' holdings increased by 87.1 billion yuan; compared with the first quarter of 2025, it increased by more than 50 billion yuan [2] d. Market Performance - A - share major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index was slightly stronger in a volatile manner, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were slightly weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Most industry sectors rose, with the machinery and equipment sector leading the gains and the real estate sector leading the losses [2] e. Upcoming Key Data - July 15, 10:00: China's June fixed - asset investment, industrial added value of large - scale industries, total retail sales of consumer goods, and unemployment rate; second - quarter GDP - July 15, 20:30: US June CPI and core CPI - July 16, 20:30: US June PPI and core PPI - July 17, 20:30: US June import price index, retail sales, and core retail sales [3]

Core Points - The European Union (EU) has extended the suspension period for countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August in response to President Trump's threat of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [1][4] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of negotiations, stating that if no agreement is reached, the EU will prepare countermeasures [3][5] - French President Emmanuel Macron expressed strong opposition to the U.S. tariffs and called for the EU to demonstrate its commitment to defending its interests [4][5] Trade Relations - The total trade in goods and services between the EU and the U.S. is projected to reach €1.7 trillion in 2024, averaging €46 billion daily [7] - In 2024, the EU is expected to export €531.6 billion worth of goods to the U.S. while importing €333.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of €198.2 billion [7] - The EU's exports to the U.S. have increased by 5.5% compared to 2023, while imports have decreased by 4.0% [7] Negotiation Dynamics - Trump's administration is focused on reducing the trade surplus the EU has with the U.S., which is seen as a key objective behind the tariff threats [7][10] - The EU is exploring various trade relationships and is seeking to diversify its trade partnerships beyond the U.S. [10] - Macron's statements reflect the voice of EU member states, emphasizing the need for a united front against U.S. trade policies [6][5]

所有人都没有预料到，欧盟这个在国际贸易中常常"骑墙"的角色，竟然成为特朗普这次贸易战的最大输家，甚至最终遭到了"制裁"。根据昨晚的最新消息， 美国总统特朗普宣布，自8月1日起对欧盟和墨西哥征收高达30%的关税。这一消息一经传出，立刻引发了全球范围内的强烈反响。 在几天前，欧盟与美国的谈判进展已有所披露，当时欧盟在谈判中做出了相当大的让步，最终美国承诺对欧盟仅征收10%的对等关税，部分领域如汽车、药 品和航空航天等则加征25%的关税。然而，令所有人大跌眼镜的是，特朗普这次直接将税率从原本的10%提升至30%，这一变动远远超出了所有人的预期。 稍微算一算，欧盟征收的30%关税，与美国对中国征收的34%关税几乎持平。对此，欧盟感到震惊，甚至难以分辨自己到底是美国的盟友，还是中国才是。 那么，欧盟的27个成员国面对这一局面，是选择屈服妥协，还是像中国一样与美国展开激烈的对抗？这是否意味着新一轮的欧美贸易战即将爆发？接下来， 我们将探讨这个问题。写这篇文章并不容易，欢迎大家点赞、转发和收藏。 那么，特朗普为何对欧盟下如此狠手呢？从特朗普的角度来看，欧盟并非是美国的"商业盟友"，而恰恰是美国经济的一大威胁。虽然美国市场一 ...

Group 1 - China's trade surplus in June reached 825.97 billion RMB [1] - In June, imports measured in RMB increased by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - In June, exports measured in RMB increased by 7.2% year-on-year [1]

中国1-6月份 贸易顺差4.21万亿元人民币。 ...

智通财经7月14日电，中国1-6月份贸易顺差4.21万亿元人民币。 ...

Group 1: Trade Relations - Brazil's trade surplus with the U.S. is approximately $7 billion for 2024, with a total trade surplus of about $410 billion over the past 15 years [1][3] - The U.S. has maintained a significant trade surplus with Brazil, which has been a long-standing goal of former President Trump [1][3] - Brazil's exports to the U.S. were around $40 billion, while imports were about $47 billion, resulting in a $7 billion surplus for the U.S. [3] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1, which could significantly impact U.S. industries, particularly the restaurant sector [1][3] - Brazil exports nearly 8 million bags of coffee to the U.S. annually, and over half of the orange juice sold in the U.S. comes from Brazil, indicating potential price increases for these products due to tariffs [4] Group 3: Political Context - The tariff threats come amid tensions between Trump and Brazilian President Lula, with Trump accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices [3][5] - Lula emphasized Brazil's ability to protect its domestic industries and suggested that Brazil could seek new markets in response to U.S. tariffs [3][5] - Trump's actions are seen as an attempt to influence Brazil's internal politics, particularly regarding investigations into former President Bolsonaro [6]

智利六月份进口额为69.59亿美元，出口额为82.9亿美元，贸易顺差为13.31亿美元。6月铜出口额达46.7 亿美元，锂出口额达1亿2930万美元。 ...

泰国财政部长向彭博表示，泰国已向美国提出最新贸易提案，承诺在未来5年内对美贸易顺差削减70%，并力争在7-8年内实现贸易平衡，旨在美国施加的36%关税。泰方希望关税维持在10%的“理想区间”，同时也愿接受10%-20%之间的调整幅度。提升对美贸易总量、扩大进口，并逐步压缩对美顺差，是泰方此轮谈判的关键内容。 ...