Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][6][7] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to short on rallies [1][10][11][13] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; Aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; Nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are expected to move in a range; Lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1][15][18][20] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; Rubber is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs; Urea and methanol are for range trading; Soda ash is recommended to short on rallies [1][27][30][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be bullish in a range; Red dates are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, take a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range - bound view; Eggs are expected to move in a range; Corn is bullish in a range, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels; For soybean meal 05, be cautiously bullish; Oils are expected to be bullish in a range, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][45][46][48] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, inflation, and Fed's interest - rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][16][23] - For most futures varieties, the current market is in a state of dynamic balance, with both upward and downward pressures. Investment decisions need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost [10][16][27] Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation is cooling, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is weakening, and the index futures may be under pressure in the short - term, but are long - term bullish [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest - rate cuts is over. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situation changes. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [7] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is slow to recover, and short - term trading is recommended [10] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating strongly. The valuation is low, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, depending on the demand recovery progress [11] - **Glass**: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to have limited upward space, and shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range and weakening. Macro factors suppress the price, but supply and consumption expectations support it. Short - term range trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, paying attention to war factors and inventory changes [15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. The supply and demand situation is complex, affected by the Middle - East situation. Strengthening observation is recommended, and pay attention to the inflection point of inventory [17][18] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [19][20] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [23][24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbance in Yichun's mining end [25][26] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. In the short - term, it is bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to policies and risk events [27] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand from Guangxi's alumina production provides support, and the export is increasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [30] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to raw material prices and inventory [31] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost is supported. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish [33] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to inventory and demand [34] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [36] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iran conflict, the supply may be in short - supply. The demand from the olefin industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [37] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [39] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing. After the festival, the consumption expectation is rising, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [40] - **Apples**: The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [42] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to move in a range [43] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is bottom - oscillating. For contracts 05 and 07, take a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range - bound view [44][45] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the transition from the off - season to the normal state. The price is expected to move in a range, and shorting on rallies for near - month contracts can be considered [46] - **Corn**: The spot price is bullish in the short - term, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs at high levels [48] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China talks and South American production, the 05 contract should be cautiously bullish [49] - **Oils**: Affected by the international crude oil price, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to roll long on soybean and palm oils [50][51][54]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - TheTL2606 variety will experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - Treasury bond futures will show an intraday weakening and medium - term oscillatory trend, with an overall oscillatory consolidation. Although the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis becoming long - term exists, which suppresses the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, treasury bond futures will be in an interval oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakening, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakening, the medium - term view is oscillation, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. The current domestic inflation index is relatively mild, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, which supports treasury bond futures. However, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis becoming long - term exists, which suppresses the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. In short, treasury bond futures will be in an interval oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward. With the current mild domestic inflation indicators and the persistent issue of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain generally loose, and there are still expectations of future interest rate cuts, which support Treasury bond futures. However, the possibility of the central bank implementing a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Additionally, the risk of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis becoming long - term persists, and concerns about rising inflation may slow down the central bank's interest rate cut pace, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly experience range - bound fluctuations in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On March 11, the central bank conducted 26.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 26.5 billion yuan, and the winning bid volume was 26.5 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 40.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan for the day [5] Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2606, T2606, TF2606, TS2606, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][9]

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the period from February 27 to March 6, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a significant increase in oil prices, with a weekly rise of approximately 30% and a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% [1][8] - The report indicates that the performance of commodities, particularly oil, has outperformed other asset classes, driven by supply disruption risks due to geopolitical conflicts [8][22] - The report notes that the correlation between A-shares and commodities has marginally decreased, while the correlation between US and Japanese stocks has slightly increased [12][15] Group 2 - The report states that developed markets experienced smaller declines compared to emerging markets, with North American indices faring better than Asian ones during the same period [22][24] - It mentions that the MSCI Global Index fell by 3.7%, with the smallest decline observed in the Russian RTS index and the largest in the South Korean Composite Index, which dropped by 10.6% [22][24] - The report details that the A-share indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, saw more pronounced declines compared to the broader market, reflecting a challenging environment for small-cap stocks [22][28] Group 3 - The report describes the Chinese bond market as exhibiting a "bull steepening" trend, with a general decline in yield curves and a widening of the 10Y-2Y yield spread [35][36] - It highlights that the US bond market is characterized by a "bear steepening" trend, with increases in short-term yields and a widening of the 10Y-3M yield spread [35][36] - The report indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has shifted, with expectations now pointing to potential cuts in July and October [35][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that commodity prices, particularly oil, have continued to rise, with the South China and CRB commodity indices showing significant increases [57][59] - It notes that among 13 major commodities, 7 recorded price increases, with WTI and Brent crude oil leading the gains [57][59] - The report also mentions a decline in inventories for gold and silver, contrasting with the previous trends observed over the past three years [57][60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trend of TL2606 is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weak, with an overall view of consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment will remain mainly loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly conduct range - bound consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weak | Oscillatory consolidation | The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. Trump signaled the hope to end the US - Iran conflict, easing market concerns about the crude oil supply crisis, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices and a reduction in investors' concerns about global stagflation and the hindrance of central bank monetary easing. Currently, China's inflation indicators are relatively moderate, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. The future monetary and credit environment will remain mainly loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly conduct range - bound consolidation [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rallies for glass [1][8][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; trading in a range for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Trading in a range for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; bullish and volatile for styrene, polyolefins, rubber, and urea; bullish and volatile for methanol; range trading for methanol and urea [1][26][28][29][30][32][33][35] - **Cotton - spinning Industry Chain**: Bullish and volatile for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; trading in a range for red dates [1][37][38][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract of live pigs, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts; waiting for rallies to short near - month egg contracts; being cautious about chasing highs for corn at high levels; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish and volatile for oils and fats, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils [1][42][45][46][48][49] Core Views - The market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline. Stock indices may rebound, while government bonds may trade in a range [5][6] - The fundamentals of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities according to their specific situations [1] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest rate cuts has ended. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coking coal market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival, with slow demand recovery [8][9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price of rebar is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [10] - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies. The supply has increased, the inventory has risen, the demand is weak, and the cost has increased. The upside space is limited [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or observation, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range. The macro factors have a negative impact on copper prices, but the supply and consumption expectations support the prices [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation. The price is affected by the Middle East situation, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up. It is recommended to be long with position control [16][17] - **Nickel**: Moderately holding long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand is weak in the short term [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid need. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Trading in a range. The prices are affected by the US - Iran war, inflation expectations, and interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Trading in a range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There is short - term support from export tax rebates [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Trading in a range. The demand has marginal support, and there are expectations of exports and spring maintenance. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [28] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure [36] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is light. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are marginally improving [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is picking up, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply may be affected by the war in Iran, and the demand is mixed [35] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile after the festival [37] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [38][40] - **Red Dates**: Trading in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts. The short - term price is under pressure, and the medium - to long - term price may rebound [42][44] - **Eggs**: Waiting for rallies to short near - month contracts. The price has rebounded, but the supply is still sufficient [45] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile, being cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The price is affected by the US - China talks, South American production, and soybean arrivals [48] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices are affected by international oil prices and supply - demand situations [49][50][51][52][53][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International crude oil price surge pushed up market inflation expectations, causing the gold price to rise first and then fall. Last week, gold prices fluctuated and adjusted. After a sharp rise on Monday due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price oscillated downward from Tuesday. This was due to the panic in the energy supply chain, the rise in the US inflation expectation, the increase in the US dollar index, and the concern about liquidity in the global stock market [2]. - This week (the week of March 9), the gold price will oscillate and rise. The US government's measures to ease oil price pressure are expected to cause oil prices to fall from their high levels, and the previous suppression of gold prices by soaring oil prices will be significantly alleviated. However, due to high geopolitical risks and uncertain US inflation trends, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains low, which will limit the increase in the gold price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends**: Last Friday (March 6), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 1,140.80 yuan/gram, down 7.10 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, down $115.10 per ounce. The spot gold T + D price closed at 1,138.46 yuan/gram, down 4.02 yuan/gram; the London gold spot price closed at $5,168.01 per ounce, down $110.25 per ounce [3]. - **Gold Basis**: Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -$9.95 per ounce, up $47.75 per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was -2.22 yuan/gram, up 2.02 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: Last week, the international crude oil price rose significantly, reducing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut. The decline of the foreign - market gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. The domestic - foreign price difference of gold on Friday was -74.05 yuan/gram, up significantly from -89.78 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio decreased significantly, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio increased slightly [9]. - **Position Analysis**: In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased significantly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1,073.32 tons, a decrease of 28.01 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly. In terms of futures positions, as of February 24, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both decreased, but the decline of short positions was larger, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 27 kilograms to 105,033 kilograms [14]. II. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Important Economic Data** - US manufacturing PMI in February continued to expand for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. The ISM manufacturing activity index in February slightly declined to 52.4, and the S&P manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.4 to 51.6, hitting a nearly seven - month low [19]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the highest level in three months. However, the January data was significantly revised downward, and the breadth of employment creation was insufficient [20]. - The US ISM services PMI in February rose, and the order backlog index increased significantly. The service industry index rose to 56.1, and the new order sub - index climbed to 58.6, hitting a nearly one - year high [21]. - The soaring oil price impacted the interest rate cut expectation, and the expectation of US bond traders that the Fed would not cut interest rates this year increased. As of March 5, the probability that the Fed would maintain the current interest rate range by December was 25%, higher than 17% the previous week [22]. - The US non - farm payrolls in February were disappointing, with a net decrease of 92,000 employed people and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. However, the wage data strengthened, increasing the complexity of the Fed's policy judgment [24]. - The US retail sales in January decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October last year. After excluding some items, the "control group" sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, indicating a relatively stable consumer end [25]. - **Fed Policy Tracking** - On March 6, Fed Governor Waller said that the Iran war would not have a continuous impact on inflation and reiterated his preference for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [29]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the weak non - farm employment data in February deepened her concerns about the labor market, but policymakers should not over - interpret single - month data, and the Fed should not cut interest rates immediately due to "bilateral risks" [30]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hopes that the Fed can resume interest rate cuts by the end of this year [31]. - **US Dollar Index Trend**: Last week, the US dollar index rose significantly. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp rise in oil prices, and international crude oil being priced in US dollars, the US dollar index rose by 1.34% to 98.96 as of last Friday [31]. - **US TIPS Yield Trend**: Last week, the US 10 - year TIPS yield rose significantly. The continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI in February and the sharp rise in international crude oil prices increased market concerns about inflation rebound, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to rise by 8 basis points to 1.80% as of Friday [32]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: The US - Iran conflict continued to expand. Last week, the US, Israel, and Iran continued to launch attacks. Trump demanded that Iran surrender unconditionally, but Iran vowed not to surrender, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was ready for a full - scale war lasting at least six months. Tehran elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the supreme leader [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, factors such as geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. However, as the precious metals market has partially digested the negative impact of "rising inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations", once the oil price rally slows down, precious metals are expected to return to their own logic and prices may gradually rise in a volatile manner. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still recommend buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 9, 2026, London gold spot was $5096.61/ounce, London silver spot was $83.54/ounce, COMEX gold was $5104.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was $83.63/ounce. Compared with March 6, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.4% and silver down about 1.0% - 1.2%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed certain changes, with AU2604 at 1140 yuan/gram and AG2604 at 21745 yuan/kilogram [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.4 yuan/gram on March 9, 2026, with a 14.3% increase compared with March 6. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 52.43, with a - 0.1% change [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 6, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1073.32 tons, a - 0.24% change compared with March 5. The silver ETF - SLV was 15761.62327 tons, a - 0.30% change. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different degrees of change [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 9, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 104934.00 kilograms, a - 0.09% change compared with March 6. The SHFE silver inventory was 253370.00 kilograms, a - 1.01% change. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 9, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, a 0.19% increase compared with March 6. The US dollar index was 98.96 on March 6, a - 0.09% change compared with March 5. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had different degrees of change [3] 5. Market Review - On March 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 1140 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.7% to 21547 yuan/kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Geopolitical factors: The election of Khamenei's son as the Supreme Leader of Iran makes the US - Iran conflict difficult to ease in the short term. The production cuts announced by some Middle - Eastern countries over the weekend led to a sharp increase in US crude oil prices, increasing inflation risks and suppressing precious metals prices. Later, the news of the G67 group's possible coordinated release of oil reserves narrowed the increase in oil prices, and the decline in precious metals prices also slowed down [4] - Other factors: The unexpected weakness of the US February non - farm payrolls increases the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy, the risk of the US private credit crisis is initially revealed, the US - Iran situation remains tense, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 16th consecutive month, which provides support for precious metals prices. For silver, geopolitical and stagflation risks may suppress its industrial attributes, but the continuous decline in inventory provides support for silver prices [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - Short - term: Geopolitical games, oil price fluctuations, and inflation risks will continue to impact the precious metals market. Once oil price increases slow down, precious metals may return to their own logic and prices may rise [5] - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market is solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will continue, and precious metals prices have room to rise. Long - term strategies recommend buying on dips [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 2nd to March 6th, the global and domestic major asset performance showed a pattern of stocks and bonds declining while commodities rising, with commodities > bonds > stocks. The Middle - East situation remained tense, and the US February non - farm payrolls were negative, falling short of expectations. The dollar index rose weekly. The short - term impact of the Middle - East situation on major asset prices may continue [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Decline, Commodities Rise - **Global Stocks**: Global major stock markets generally declined. European stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly. For example, MSCI Europe fell 7.34% weekly [8][12]. - **Global Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose by 18BP to 4.15% weekly. The bond market declined, and high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds globally [14]. - **Global Foreign Exchange**: Affected by liquidity concerns, the dollar index rose 1.34% weekly, and major non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar, with the RMB exchange rate falling [15]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors drove up international crude oil prices. International gold and silver prices fell significantly, major non - ferrous metals prices fluctuated, and agricultural product prices generally rose. For instance, Brent crude oil rose 27.47% weekly [17][18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks Decline, Bonds Perform Strongly, Commodities Rise - **Domestic Stocks**: A - share major broad - based indexes generally declined, but the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased. Large - cap blue - chips were relatively resistant to decline. The petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors led the gains, while the media and non - ferrous sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93% weekly [22]. - **Domestic Bonds**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 14,474 billion yuan, and the capital market was relatively loose. The bond market performed strongly, with government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. The energy and chemical sectors led the gains, while the precious metal sector performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 6.43% weekly [25][26]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Middle - East major oil - producing countries have announced production cuts, and the Middle - East situation has had a real impact on crude oil production. The short - term impact on major asset prices may continue [28].