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中美这场较量,终于迎来大结局?特朗普算盘落空,美国自身难保
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 07:06
Group 1 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have seen both sides maintaining communication on economic concerns, particularly regarding U.S. export control measures in the semiconductor sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a directive to halt supplies to Chinese clients from several EDA software companies, which are crucial for chip design, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed through executive orders were overreaching, highlighting the ongoing legal and economic ramifications of the trade war [3] Group 2 - The upcoming G20 summit in November may serve as a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations, with potential discussions aimed at resolving trade issues [3] - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the current tariff policies are unpopular, with calls for a return to cooperative and mutually beneficial trade practices [5] - China's proactive diplomatic efforts with various global regions, including Latin America and the EU, suggest a strategic shift in response to U.S. trade policies, enhancing its international economic relationships [7]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250604
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual
大越期货沪铜早报-20250604
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:02
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面:冶炼企业有减产动作,废铜政策有所放开,5月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.5%,比上月 上升0.5个百分点,制造业继续保持恢复发展态势;中性。 2、基差:现货78445,基差795,升水期货;偏多。 3、库存:6月2日铜库存减4600至143850吨,上期所铜库存较上周减7120吨至105791吨;中性。 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线上,20均线向上运行;偏多。 5、主力持仓:主力净持仓多,多减;偏多。 6、预期:美联储降息放缓,库存高位去库,美国贸易关税不确定性增强,铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险: 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...
中国稀土出口管制让欧洲企业面临停产危机
日经中文网· 2025-06-04 02:19
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing challenges faced by European manufacturers due to China's tightening of rare earth export controls, which could lead to significant costs and potential production halts for these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Issues - The China-EU Chamber of Commerce has indicated that European manufacturers are currently in a severe situation due to the ongoing export controls on rare earths imposed by China [1][2]. - The application process for export licenses has experienced significant delays, complicating the situation for European firms [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is reportedly working to address the increase in export license applications, but the lack of a sufficient transition period has left companies with little time to adapt [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Relations - The tightening of rare earth export controls is part of China's broader strategy to respond to the trade war with the United States, which has included retaliatory tariffs on various industrial products [1]. - Since the temporary suspension of most additional tariffs between China and the U.S. in mid-May, other retaliatory measures have been paused, but the export controls on rare earths remain in effect [2].
LLDPE:短期不追空,或阶段性反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene, it is not advisable to chase short positions in LLDPE. Instead, there may be a phased rebound [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 6963, with a daily decline of - 0.16%. The trading volume was 250,761, and the open interest increased by 17,361 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 09 contract was 37 yesterday (compared to 90 the day before), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 27 yesterday (compared to 37 the day before) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the north, the price was 7000 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 7050 yuan/ton the day before); in the east, it was 7100 yuan/ton (unchanged); in the south, it was 7230 yuan/ton (down from 7250 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The LLDPE market price declined slightly, with a price fluctuation range of 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher, then fluctuated and declined. The market sentiment was poor. Some prices of CNPC East China, Sinopec North China, and Sinopec South China were lowered. Traders lacked confidence and mostly quoted lower prices. Downstream factories were cautious and the trading volume was average [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty. However, the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price transactions of polyethylene make it unadvisable to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 205 million tons, and the supply pressure is still high. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the agricultural film is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by - 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline later. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by - 0.59% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price replenishment, but the continuous replenishment intensity is insufficient [2]. - **Future Supply Changes**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a situation of capacity switching between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated later [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].
彭博:特朗普贸易战的转折点 -钢铁关税、法院诉讼、中国、TACO
彭博· 2025-06-04 01:50
2025/6/3 08:53 钢铁关税、法院诉讼、中国、TACO:特朗普贸易战的最新进展 - 彭博 商业 | Big Take播客 特朗普贸易战的转折点 在今天的 Big Take 播客中:特朗普对等关税的 90 天暂停期已过半,他的战略⾯临新 的挑战。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五抵达位于宾⼣法尼亚州西⽶夫林的美国钢铁公司欧⽂⼯⼚。 摄影师: Rebecca Droke/Bloomberg 作者:Julia Press和Sarah Holder 2025年6⽉3⽇凌晨4:27(格林威治标准时间+8) 不错过任何⼀集。⽴即关注 The Big Take 每⽇播客。 ⼤拿 特朗普贸易战的转折点 17:43 特朗普总统全⾯实施互惠关税的90天暂停期已过半。这三个⽉的延期本应让 美国有时间与世界各国进⾏贸易谈判。然⽽,尽管谈判仍在进⾏,许多协议 似乎仍遥不可及。如今,针对特朗普关税策略的法律挑战⼜给政府的计划带 ⽴即获得⽆限制访问权限。 探索优惠 Get uninterrupted access to l b l C l https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06- ...
美欧贸易战打得火热,新浪财经 APP 给你全程 “直播”
新浪财经· 2025-06-04 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant impact of the US-EU trade war on global financial markets and highlights the utility of the Sina Finance APP as a tool for investors to navigate this volatile environment [1][5]. Group 1: Trade War Overview - The US-EU trade war has escalated with threats of increased tariffs and fluctuating negotiation timelines, causing anxiety among investors [1]. - The trade conflict originated from the US imposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, prompting the EU to retaliate [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The trade war has led to substantial volatility in the US stock market, with major indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 experiencing significant fluctuations [3]. - Various sectors, including automotive, steel, and alcoholic beverages, are analyzed for their exposure to the trade war's effects [2]. Group 3: APP Features - The Sina Finance APP provides comprehensive news updates, including the reasons behind tariff changes and the positions of key officials, ensuring investors stay informed [2]. - The APP offers robust market tracking features for stocks, futures, and foreign exchange, allowing users to monitor real-time market movements influenced by the trade war [3]. - Additional functionalities such as smart alerts and index maps help investors prepare for market changes and compare asset performance globally [4].
黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.6.4)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 00:54
黄金周二(6月3日)早盘小幅上涨3392附近后开始震荡下跌,欧盘以及美盘初延续下跌,最低跌至3333附近,尾盘震荡反弹,日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美元走强:美元周二上涨0.6%,从逾一个月低点回升,以美元计价的黄金对外国买家成本上升,抑制需求。不过,美元短期回升未改变整体承压趋势, 黄金作为避险资产吸引力仍在,但短期上行空间受美元强势限制。 2、贸易战与关税政策:特朗普提议将进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%,引发市场关注。欧盟表示将推动美国降税,但美国要求贸易伙伴短时间内提交修订提 议,谈判紧迫性使市场情绪谨慎。贸易战可能致全球经济增长放缓,推高避险需求利好黄金,同时美元阶段性走强和市场对美联储政策观望又限制黄金上 涨。此外,美国参议院审议的减税和支出法案预计未来十年为联邦政府增加3.8万亿美元债务,可能削弱美元长期吸引力,间接支撑金价,而短期内外汇期 权市场交易员普遍预期美元进一步走软,或为黄金提供反弹机会。 3、美国劳动力市场疲软:美国4月职位空缺增加19.1万至739.1万,但裁员人数创九个月最大增幅达178.6万,裁员主要集中在中小企业的专业和商业服务、 医疗保健及餐饮行业。4月辞职人数减少15 ...
关税加剧经济不确定性 加拿大央行今晚或按兵不动
智通财经网· 2025-06-04 00:43
道明证券加拿大及全球利率策略主管Andrew Kelvin表示:"我认为加拿大央行在今年剩余时间里难以确 定全球贸易形势的发展,但加拿大国内经济已经足够有韧性,加拿大央行有能力等到7月再行动。" 特朗普对包括钢铁、铝、汽车以及不符合北美贸易协定的产品在内的多种加拿大商品征收关税,损害了 劳动力市场,削弱了企业和消费者的信心。但加拿大核心通胀正在上升,第一季度经济表现超出预期, 部分原因是企业赶在关税生效前将更多商品运往美国。 加拿大央行可能不会提供太多前瞻性指引,但随着关税带来的冲击加剧,经济学家和市场预计该行今年 晚些时候将进一步降息。鉴于未来经济可能受损,决策者维持鸽派基调的可能性有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉,加拿大央行将于北京时间周三21:45公布利率决议。市场预计加拿大央行将维持隔 夜利率在2.75%不变,这将是连续第二次暂停降息,因为加拿大央行官员们正在等待美国总统唐纳德·特 朗普的贸易战最终将如何影响经济的更明确信号。 加拿大央行官员们可能会重申,如果经济数据恶化,或者如果他们认为有足够的信息来了解贸易争端将 如何发展,他们将迅速采取行动。但就目前而言,缺乏明确的信息可能会迫使他们按兵不动。 加 ...
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250604
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-04 00:28
Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs [1][17] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises anticipate that the US-China trade negotiations may face significant challenges, requiring ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][17] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][17] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Overview - The structured financing market for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) is under scrutiny, with ABS being a potential solution to alleviate financing pressures amid tightening regulations [3][4] - The development of the LGFV ABS market has evolved through several phases, influenced heavily by policy changes and market conditions [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - XianDao Intelligent (先导智能) is positioned to benefit from the global electric vehicle trend, with expected net profits of 10.57 billion, 17.02 billion, and 22.28 billion from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to dynamic PEs of 41, 19, and 15 times [8][9] - Mercury Home Textiles (水星家纺) is expected to see significant growth in its memory pillow segment, with sales projected to rise from 1.14 million to 6.44 million by 2027, and net profits adjusted to 3.99 billion and 4.48 billion for 2025 and 2026 [9] - Hanlan Environment (瀚蓝环境) has completed the acquisition of Yuefeng, enhancing its growth potential and cash flow, with net profit forecasts of 18.60 billion, 21.17 billion, and 22.14 billion for 2025 to 2027 [10] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. (迈为股份) plans to raise nearly 20 billion through convertible bonds for its perovskite tandem solar cell project, with expected annual revenue of 40 billion post-completion [11][12] - Ideal Auto (理想汽车) has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting 1436 billion, 2233 billion, and 2362 billion, with net profits of 82 billion, 137 billion, and 154 billion [13] - Keda Li (科达利) is projected to achieve net profits of 18.8 billion, 23.2 billion, and 27.9 billion from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from its strong market position in structural components [14] - Jiechang Drive (捷昌驱动) is expanding into the robotics sector, with net profit forecasts of 3.92 billion, 4.97 billion, and 6.40 billion for 2025 to 2027, driven by growth in various downstream markets [15][16]