Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign**: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and high costs. As the demand gradually shifts from the off - season to the peak season, the drag on lead prices may ease. Overall, raw material shortages and peak - season expectations support lead prices, but high prices may limit the upside [1]. - For zinc, zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and smelter production and profits are improving. However, high zinc prices and weak downstream demand lead to limited upside for zinc prices, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the positive factors fade [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 17,230 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the basis was - 230 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 6.39% to 30,897 lots, while the open interest increased by 0.52% to 52,534 lots [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,330 yuan/ton (up 1.09% from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,385 yuan/ton (up 1.20% from the previous day), the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.21% to 146,456 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1.85% to 112,634 lots [1]. Industry News - **Lead**: An East - China secondary lead smelter is expected to increase production by about 3,500 tons compared to last month. A Central - China primary lead smelter resumed normal production after a weekend equipment failure. As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 61,100 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from July 3 and 3,200 tons from July 7 [1]. - **Zinc**: A North - China zinc mine plans to conduct a 10 - day maintenance in August, affecting nearly 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. The recent tender result of a North - China zinc mine was 5,450 yuan/ton (including 20 - 80 sharing). As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from July 3 and 1,200 tons from July 7 [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕：等待 USDA 报告，反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4105 -7（-0.17%） | 4096 -14（-0.34%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2954 +14（+0.48%） | 2972 +29 （+0.99%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1014 +6.75（+0.67%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.3 +2.4（+0.85%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2800～2880， 较昨-20至持平； 平;10-11月M2601+60/+80/+100/+110， | 8月M2509-30， 持平； 8-9月M25 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃盘面回升，提振纯碱市场情绪。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1194元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1231元/吨，基差为-37元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加2.98%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：纯碱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 0. Suggest a positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and short PXN01 at high levels. The supply - demand pattern is tight, but PXN valuation is high and the trend is weak [1][7]. - PTA should focus on the production cut situation of filament factories. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA. The trend strength is 0. The basis has fallen to single - digits, and the supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, with the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation [1][7]. - MEG is in a low - inventory, unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 1. The cost - end coal price is strong, and it is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage for the basis and monthly spread, and not to chase short on the unilateral valuation [1][7]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia is gradually resuming its load after a reduction in late June due to an olefin - end fault. Another 530,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia stopped for maintenance in early July, 15 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to restart in mid - August, with a pure benzene production capacity of about 300,000 tons [3]. - **PTA**: In mainland China, the load of Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian PTA units has returned to normal, and the PTA load has reached 79.7% as of Thursday. The current operating rate is around 85.8%. A 1.5 - million - ton PTA unit in Taiwan, China has restarted after a maintenance that started in early June [3]. - **MEG**: From July 7th to July 13th, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo ports are about 31,000 tons, 37,000 tons, and 28,000 tons respectively, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 96,000 tons. As of July 10th, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 67.57% (a 1.06% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) method is 73.13% (a 3.79% increase from the previous period). Since June 1st, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 29.175 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: The load of polyester is in a fluctuating decline. As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in mainland China is around 88.9%. A 600,000 - ton polyester unit in Huzhou has restarted after a short - term maintenance. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 10th were temporarily weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 50% - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on the 10th improved moderately compared to the 9th, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 63% by 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Strength - PX trend strength: 0 [7]. - PTA trend strength: 0 [7]. - MEG trend strength: 1 [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, and monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the price changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot**: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The prices and price changes of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are given [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins (including propylene and polyethylene): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester (including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Chlor - alkali (including PVC and caustic soda): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with limited operability on the market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each product. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, while others are influenced by macro - market sentiment and cost factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures market rebounds. MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declines, import demand weakens, and port inventory accumulates. Some olefin failures in the northwest lead to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. There are many planned methanol device overhauls, which support the market, but demand is weak in the off - season, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The urea futures market is strongly oscillating. Rainy weather boosts agricultural fertilizer demand, supply - demand improves marginally, and enterprise inventory decreases. Port inventory accumulates rapidly. The latest Indian tender price boosts market sentiment. In the short - term, the market is strongly oscillating, but later, agricultural demand will enter the off - season, and new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rise, but the increase is weaker than other chemicals due to weak fundamentals. The polyethylene market sentiment improves slightly, but there is limited upward momentum. Polypropylene standard products follow the futures price increase, but non - standard product demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is strong due to high oil prices and improved spot trading. Port inventory accumulation slows down, and downstream purchasing improves. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate based on seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band trading, and consider short - selling at high prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures rise significantly, driven by the sharp increase in the price of general benzene. The cost increase improves market trading sentiment, and the futures price increase drives factories to raise prices, with good trading volume [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise slightly, and the monthly spread is weak. PX load decreases, PTA load increases, and PTA supply - demand eases. Ethylene glycol inventory decreases, and the price is strong. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices rise slightly with raw material prices. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and bottle - chip enterprises cut production [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is strong due to real - estate rumors, but downstream orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulates. New production capacity is released, and domestic demand is weak. Caustic soda continues to rise, with reduced enterprise operation and inventory, but long - term supply pressure remains [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rise significantly due to real - estate rumors and industry inventory reduction. Soda ash is strong in the macro - environment, but inventory pressure is high, and long - term demand is expected to decline [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices expected to be range - bound and firm. However, high lead prices may limit downstream purchasing, capping the upside potential [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disruptions have led to a rebound in zinc prices. But the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, causing inventory accumulation and limited upside. Opportunities to short may emerge after positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.59% to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.09% to 17,175 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 7.42% to 33,005 lots, while the open interest increased 1.25% to 52,261 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.71% to 2,058.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased 0.62% to 8.34 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited supplies, and hoarding by recyclers have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: In June, the silver by - product output of primary lead smelters increased 1.3% month - on - month. In July, it may decline slightly due to regular maintenance. The additional tariff negotiation for the US REDDOG lead ore may end with both parties sharing the cost, and the ore will enter the domestic market by the end of the third quarter. Zhongse Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary plans to expand the production scale of the Baiyinnuoer lead - zinc mine from 990,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year [1]. Zinc - **Prices and Trading Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.55% to 22,090 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract closing price rose 0.32% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased 2.53% to 154,513 lots, and the open interest decreased 3.46% to 114,762 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) rose 0.86% to 2,742.5 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased 0.54% to 8.07 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, reducing production constraints and cost support. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have increased, with an obvious upward trend in output. Demand is weak, and downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs [1]. - **Industry News**: In the second quarter of 2025, the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate. In June, production was affected by capacity - bottleneck upgrades and low - grade ore processing. After the first - stage upgrade, the daily available time of the DMS system increased from 6 to 16 hours. The second - stage upgrade in August is expected to increase the annual processing capacity from 800,000 to 960,000 tons, and the DMS available time to 22 hours/day. The annual zinc production guidance remains at 180,000 - 240,000 tons [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 10 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：几内亚雨季影响，短期偏强 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20515 | -10 | -120 | વચ્ચે | -190 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20685 | ー | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2602 | 25 | -13 | 154 | -71 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 102569 | -7014 | -43720 | -68522 | -105986 | | | | 沪铝 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 美对铜的关税临近落地，非美地 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 短线看强 | 区铜价承压，期价在前期中枢或 又支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参 ...

【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | ୧୧18 | ୧୧18 | 0 | PF08-09 | 120 | 120 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6398 | 0 | PF09-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 短纤2509 | 6398 | 6398 | 0 | PF 基 差 | 292 | 297 | -5 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 278838 | 273602 | 5236 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 690 | 6.695 | -5 | | | 短纤成交量 | 164913 | 158707 | 6206 | 短纤产销率 | 49% | 51% | -2% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2508 | 589୧ | 5914 | -18 | PR08-09 | 30 | 42 | -12 | | | 瓶片2509 ...