1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last weekend, external relations fluctuated, with two - way sanctions escalating and then warming up. The A - share market opened sharply lower and then rebounded on Monday, followed by intensified two - way fluctuations. The trading volume of the entire A - share market shrank below 2 trillion for the first time since August. The margin balance remained firm with daily small net inflows, but over - heated sentiment could lead to a run - on style correction. Overseas banking risks resurfaced, causing a decline in risk appetite and impacts on the domestic market. Powell's dovish speech strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in October. Overall, the market risk preference continued to decline, broad - based indexes fell with shrinking volume, and the market style tilted towards large - cap value. [2] - This week, the basis continued to be highly volatile. As of Friday, the basis of each variety declined compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, and the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, while the discount of IM was basically the same as last week. The October contract expired, and the term structure of the remaining contracts was flat with similar hedging costs. [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will strengthen next week, while the basis of IM will weaken. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation This Week - A - share market: Opened sharply lower and rebounded on Monday, with intensified two - way fluctuations later. The trading volume shrank below 2 trillion for the first time since August. The margin balance had daily small net inflows, and over - heated sentiment might cause a correction. [2] - Overseas market: Banking risks resurfaced, leading to a decline in risk appetite, a rise in gold prices above $4300, an increase in US Treasury yields, and a surge in VIX, which also affected the domestic market. [2] - Market style: Tilted towards large - cap value. The weekly decline of the Shanghai Composite 50 was only 0.24%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell nearly 5%, and the ChiNext and STAR Market continued to decline by nearly 6%. [2] - Basis situation: Highly volatile. The premium of IH narrowed to about 0.6%, the annualized discounts of IF and IC widened to about 2.6% and 12% respectively, and the discount of IM was basically unchanged. The October contract expired, and the term structure of the remaining contracts was flat with similar hedging costs. [2] 3.2 Basis Movement Prediction for Next Week - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IC will strengthen, while the basis of IM will weaken. [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's economy continues to show a stable and improving development trend, with key economic indicators in the first half of the year exceeding expectations [1] - The PBOC will maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure ample liquidity and support consumption and effective investment [2] - The focus will be on deepening reforms, promoting economic structural transformation, and expanding domestic demand to provide strong momentum for high-quality development [2] Group 1 - China's economic growth rate ranks among the top of major global economies [1] - The PBOC aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial market stability [2] Group 2 - The PBOC plans to further promote the construction of a unified national market and stimulate consumer demand [2] - There is a commitment to actively participate in global economic governance and cooperation [2] - The PBOC intends to expand high-level opening-up and achieve mutual benefits through regulatory and standardization efforts [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trade situation has a negative impact on the market sentiment. A - share major indices and stock index futures have declined, while treasury bond futures have strengthened. Commodity indices are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. - The Fed's dovish tone, tariff tensions, and the US government shutdown have weakened the US dollar. The euro remains strong, and the yen is mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar [6][10]. - The rise in international gold prices has driven up the core CPI, and the Chinese government's subsidy funds are expected to boost consumption. The trade situation is uncertain due to Trump's actions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 2.35%. A - share major indices fell collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were weaker. The market was affected by the trade situation, and the allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.06%, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.31%. Treasury bond futures strengthened, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index rose 6.93%, and the China Securities commodity futures price index rose 0.49%. Except for gold, other commodities performed poorly, and the allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.89%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract rose 0.86%. The US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes stabilizing market expectations; the Chinese government imposes special port fees on US ships; the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [14]. - **International News**: The US lowers EU auto tariffs to 15%; Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year; the IMF warns that global public debt will reach a new high by 2029 and raises the world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, M1 growth rate was 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 growth rate was 8.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: The October NAHB housing market index was 37 [17]. - **EU**: The August industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was - 1.2% [17]. - **UK**: The August three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, and the August manufacturing output monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Germany**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0.2% [17]. - **France**: The September CPI monthly rate was - 1% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 20**: China's one - year loan prime rate, September social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, September industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, and Germany's September PPI monthly rate [81]. - **October 22**: Japan's September commodity export year - on - year, UK's September CPI monthly rate, and September retail price index monthly rate [81]. - **October 23**: US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the eurozone's October consumer confidence index preliminary value [81]. - **October 24**: Japan's September core CPI year - on - year, UK's September seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, France's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and US September unadjusted CPI and core CPI year - on - year [81].

Regulatory Voice - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to stabilize liquidity, indicating a continued moderate easing monetary policy approach [1] Industry Focus - Several banks have raised the minimum purchase threshold for gold investment and issued risk warnings due to rising international gold prices amid increasing market risks [3] - Multiple banks are cleaning up long-term inactive accounts to prevent financial risks such as fraud and money laundering, while also improving operational efficiency [4] Corporate Dynamics - Bohai Bank plans to publicly transfer 69.833 billion yuan in debt assets, marking a significant move as it has already disposed of over 100 billion yuan in problem assets within a year [6] - HSBC Holdings has proposed to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a price of 155 Hong Kong dollars per share, with an estimated total valuation of approximately 290.305 billion Hong Kong dollars for all issued shares [7][8] - Agricultural Bank of China is integrating over 190 rural commercial bank branches in Jilin, continuing the reform of rural credit cooperatives with the involvement of state-owned banks [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading operations in the fourth quarter. Market liquidity is expected to return to a reasonably ample level, strongly supporting treasury bond futures prices. However, external tariff policy changes may cause downward pressure on exports [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance. The T2512 contract rose 0.03%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day and DR007 rates increased, while GC007 rate decreased [2]. Spot Market - The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.12bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.77bp [2]. - In the overseas market, the US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased 6bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield decreased 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield increased 0.1bp [2]. Macro News - The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 16, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, the net withdrawal on that day was 376 billion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, including the attitude towards Sino - US economic and trade consultations, optimization of rare - earth export control procedures, and protection of the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned possible extensions of tariff exemptions for China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson restated China's stance [3]. - The Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy if the expected economic outlook is more certain, and some members believe inflation risks are rising [3]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the China E - commerce Logistics Index in September continued to rise, reaching a new high for the year [3]. - There were differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with one advocating a cautious 25 - basis - point cut and the other a more aggressive 50 - basis - point cut [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling. The 14 - day silver - deposit - pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate reached a new low since January 2023, and the 1 - month rate reached a new low in over a month [3]. - US Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2 - year yield falling 8.14bp, the 3 - year falling 8.02bp, the 5 - year falling 7.63bp, the 10 - year falling 5.94bp, and the 30 - year falling 4.76bp [3]. - The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan and a net injection of 400 billion yuan through 6 - month outright reverse repurchases. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and cut interest rates again, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing more space for the domestic central bank's monetary policy [3].

（原标题：金融巨头，大跌！） 【导读】日本股市早盘走低，金融股跌幅居前 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新情况。 日本股市早盘走低 金融股跌幅居前 韩国股市震荡调整 韩国股市低开后震荡调整，韩国综合指数现报3744.69。 10月17日，日韩股市走低。截至记者发稿时，日经225指数跌幅扩大至1%。 受隔夜美股银行股大跌影响，日本金融股走低。截至记者发稿时，日本银行业指数下跌1.88%，为东京 证券交易所行业分类指数中表现最差的指数。个股方面，瑞穗金融集团、三菱日联金融、三井住友金融 集团均跌超2%。 摩根大通分析师表示，银行业是一个投资者倾向于"先卖出，后提问"的领域，市场情绪的快速恶化，正 成为比银行资产负债表本身更大的担忧。 日本央行月底会议不远，行长植田和男仍未排除加息可能性。日本央行行长植田和男表示，如果对实现 经济前景的信心增强，央行将继续收紧政策——这意味着近期加息的大门仍然敞开。 植田和男周四在华盛顿参加二十国集团（G20）会议后对记者说道："我们的立场没有改变，如果我们 对实现经济前景的信心增强，我们将调整货币宽松的程度。" 自去年以来，日本央行一直在通过加息和 调整资产负债表政策 ...

转自：新华财经 欧洲市场方面，欧债走势与美债类似，中短期德债收益率下跌，其中10年期德债收益率微涨0.1BP至2.571%；意债涨多跌少，其中10年 期意债收益率跌0.7BP至3.352%；法债收益率当天全线下跌，10年期法债收益率跌0.3BP至3.334%。 费城联储当天公布的地区经济状况调查指数下跌36点，至-12.8点，远低于华尔街经济学家普遍预期的9.5点。该地区发货量下降20点，但 新订单上升，就业下降1点，但仍为正值，调查中的预期指数更高。 同在周四，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、迈克尔·巴尔和斯蒂芬·米兰，以及美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼都在各种活动上发表了 讲话。面对劳动力市场疲软和地缘政治紧张局势加剧，米兰和沃勒对美联储应该以多快的速度降息提出了不同的看法。 在美国政府关门进入第三周之际，投资者正密切关注这些讲话，希望从中找到未来货币政策走向的线索。政府停摆意味着官方经济数据 的持续封锁，这已经推迟了有关劳动力市场状况的关键数据，而美联储本可以利用这些数据来为其决策提供信息。 通常情况下，美国劳工统计局会在美国东部时间周四上午8点30分公布9月份生产者价格指数，而即将发布的消费者价格指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while monetary and fiscal policies are expected to support the European economy, the actual impact is yet to be realized, with marginal weakening observed in Q3 data [3]. Economic Activity - The overall European economy is maintaining a slow recovery, with Eurozone GDP showing a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, slightly below Q1 but above market expectations [3]. - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight decline in September after a rapid recovery, while the services PMI remains at a high level [3]. - The Eurozone's economic surprise index has shown a notable weakening since mid-September, driven by disappointing retail sales and investment data [5][3]. Consumption - Consumer spending is steadily recovering, with actual retail growth (excluding automobiles) at 1.3% in August, slightly below pre-pandemic levels [7]. - Consumer confidence remains cautious, with high savings rates and limited willingness to spend, despite rising real wages and a recovering labor market [7]. - Factors supporting continued recovery in consumer demand include rising real wages, declining interest rates, and potential for further decreases in savings rates [7]. Investment - Investment data remains weak in Q2, influenced by tariffs, with only minor improvements in fixed capital investment outside of intellectual property [9]. - Some sectors, like construction, are seeing increased investment activity due to relaxed monetary policy, but investor confidence remains volatile [9]. - Future improvements in investment are anticipated as monetary policy transmission continues and tariff uncertainties diminish [9]. Industrial Production - Industrial production recovery is fragile, with Germany's industrial production index remaining low [11]. - Consumer goods production is relatively strong, while capital goods production growth is weak but shows a recovery trend [11]. - Overall industrial confidence remains weak, but capacity utilization is steadily recovering [11]. Labor Market - The Eurozone unemployment rate remains at historical lows, with wage growth rebounding in Q2 [14]. - Despite a slight weakening in the PMI employment index, real wages continue to rise above inflation levels [14]. Inflation - Headline inflation in the Eurozone is around 2%, with service inflation contributing significantly [17]. - Service inflation was recorded at 3.1% in August, indicating resilience despite downward pressures from tariffs and external competition [17]. - Future wage growth is expected to slow, potentially alleviating some inflationary pressures [17]. Monetary and Credit Conditions - The monetary policy easing cycle is pausing, with credit growth continuing to recover [21]. - The ECB has maintained the policy rate at a neutral level of 2%, with market expectations for minimal rate cuts in the coming year [21]. - Loan demand is recovering, particularly in the housing sector, although there are signs of tightening credit conditions for households [21]. Trade - Eurozone trade data shows a rise in imports and a decline in exports, with July data indicating a 0.1% year-on-year increase in exports and a 3.7% increase in imports [25]. - The decline in export growth is attributed to reduced "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with trade balances showing a significant drop since April [25]. Forward Outlook - The Eurozone economy is expected to see slow recovery in domestic demand, supported by the delayed effects of monetary easing and fiscal policies [27]. - Key areas to monitor include the EU's ability to implement substantial reforms and the extent of consumer recovery amidst high savings rates [27]. - The overall performance of European assets has been stagnant, with equities underperforming global indices since May [27].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a recovery in direct financing and the continued activation of deposits, with expectations for fiscal and monetary policies to boost financing demand in Q4 2025 [1][4][6] - The social financing scale in September 2025 saw an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, slightly below the seasonal average [4][6] - The report notes that the structure of social financing is improving, indicating a recovery in direct financing, with corporate bond financing increasing by 10.5 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6] Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02, with a total issuance scale of 1.677 billion yuan, aimed at funding distributed photovoltaic projects [7][8] - The expected listing price range for Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 is between 111.44 and 123.92 yuan, with an anticipated subscription rate of 0.0069% [7][8] - Jinlang Technology, the issuer, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 to 2024, despite fluctuations in net profit [8] Company Analysis - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is projected to see a net profit increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in both underwriting and investment [9][10] - The underwriting profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a combined cost ratio of 94.8% [9][10] - The report raises the profit forecast for China Pacific Insurance, estimating net profits of 48 billion, 49.4 billion, and 52.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) during the December FOMC monetary policy meeting [1] Group 1 - The expectation is based on the current economic conditions and the Fed's previous communications regarding monetary policy [1]