报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 12 月 16 日，万得全 A 缩量下跌，开盘震荡下行，午后震荡修复后再度走弱， 收跌 1.45%，全市超 4000 支个股下跌，市场赚钱效应较差；沪深 300、上证 50、 中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 1.20%、1.08%、1.58%、1.74%，大盘蓝筹股表 现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约（2603）分别收跌 1.10%、1.12%、 1.40%、1.59%，表现强于 ...

宏观经济 中央财办有关负责同志表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从 供需两侧发力提振消费。综合整治"内卷式"竞争方面，企业层面，要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。要加快完 善重点行业产能调控机制，加强动态监测预警，既让落后产能有序退出，也让新增优质产能平稳接续。 市场监管总局：近期围绕规范平台经济、食品安全以及反垄断、反不正当竞争工作，一系列新规将陆续 发布实施。正在研究制定"首违不罚"和"轻微免罚"清单。首违是指两年内，经营主体无同类违法记录； 轻微则必须同时满足后果轻微、及时改正等硬性条件。既给经营主体提供容错空间，也为执法人员提供 清晰指引。 人社部：1至11月，全国城镇新增就业1210万人，城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%。将实施稳岗扩容提质 行动，全力以赴稳定就业大局；聚焦就业重点群体，精准施策稳定和扩大就业。 新华社：上半年，基于商品、服务和内容的数字消费规模达9.37万亿元，占居民消费支出总额的 46.5%。其中，实物商品数字消费额占数字消费总额的66.3%，数字服务（如在线教育、在线医疗等） 和数字内容（如数字音乐、网络视频等）消费额分别占29.2%和4.5%。 Que ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is some uncertainty in the market at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline, while being vigilant against redemption risks [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level; aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range; nickel is recommended to wait and see; tin is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range; alumina is recommended to wait and see; stainless steel is recommended to wait and see; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][13][16][17][19][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly; glass is expected to oscillate narrowly; soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, attention should be paid to the cost - push factors and the direction of the black sector; industrial silicon is expected to run weakly; and polysilicon should pay attention to the pressure at the 60,000 - yuan mark [31][34][36][37][40][42][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral short - term operation is recommended; for crude oil, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for methanol, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended; for urea, it is recommended to go long at low prices; for pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year; for PVC, it is recommended to go short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, there is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance; for PTA, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for p - xylene, attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips; for polyethylene, it is recommended to shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies; and for polypropylene, it may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [52][54][55][57][59][62][64][66][68][70][72]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts; for eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended; for sugar, a short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended; and for cotton, it is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [75][77][80][82][85][87]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The top priority for next year is to expand domestic demand, and efforts will be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides. Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply gap of 260,000 tons in 2025 and 600,000 tons in 2026. The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2]. - **Strategy**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On December 16, the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping measures on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to improve the mechanism for expanding domestic demand. The central bank conducted a net injection of 18 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday [5]. - **Strategy**: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - demand repair and rebound, and vigilance against redemption risks [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14,731 yuan/kg. The weak US non - farm payroll data supported the prices of gold and silver in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US non - farm data affected the dollar index, and copper prices oscillated. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium changed. The import loss of domestic copper spot narrowed [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract ranging from 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M from 11,500 - 11,800 dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026, and aluminum prices oscillated upward. Global aluminum inventory continued to decline [12]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are strongly supported and may rise after adjustment, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract ranging from 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M from 2,850 - 2,910 dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell. Zinc ore inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The Lun zinc had a large - scale warehouse delivery on December 16 [14][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell. Lead ore inventory was basically flat, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices were weak. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices fell slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the Shanghai nickel price ranging from 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M from 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi faced problems such as low processing fees and insufficient raw material supply. The demand was affected by high prices, and inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract ranging from 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin from 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose. The market is divided on supply release and demand fulfillment [22]. - **Strategy**: Lithium carbonate is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract ranging from 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The Guinea ore price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with the domestic main contract AO2601 ranging from 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the market is in a tight - balance state and lacks a clear direction [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading volume was low [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and demand pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed slightly. The rebar production decreased, and the inventory declined. The hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and the inventory removal was difficult. Export license management will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom and may gradually digest the policy impact [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. The iron water output decreased [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is balanced [38]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore and electricity price changes [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The production decline was limited, and the demand was weak. Polysilicon prices rose. The production is expected to decline, and the inventory pressure is high [41][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the 60,000 - yuan mark [42][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated. The inventory was low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Neutral short - term operation, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories increased [53]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and test the OPEC's export - price support willingness [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fluctuated. The port inventory decreased, but the import is expected to be high, and the olefin plant has maintenance expectations [55]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The demand improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Go long on urea at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed. The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low, and the inventory situation is different [58]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, the demand was weak, and the cost was stable [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies due to strong supply and weak demand [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was expected to improve, but the inventory continued to rise [63]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of rebound due to unexpected maintenance [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decline in the off - season [65]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The production load changed, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly [67]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell. The upstream production decreased, the inventory was high, and the downstream demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy**: Shrink the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose slightly. The upstream production increased, the inventory situation was complex, and the downstream demand oscillated seasonally [71]. - **Strategy**: It may be supported by the change of the cost - supply pattern in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated slightly. Some regions had different trends in sales [74]. - **Strategy**: Short after the consumption rebound and go long on the far - end contracts [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for the near - end contracts and pay attention to the upper pressure for the far - end contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Soybean and rapeseed meal prices changed. The US soybean sales were slow, and the South American production was expected to be high. The domestic inventory was high [78][79]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the export was poor. The soybean planting progress in Brazil was good, and the US soybean oil inventory increased [81]. - **Strategy**: Short - term operation based on high - frequency data is recommended [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. The production in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the domestic import profit window is open [83][84]. - **Strategy**: A short - term wait - and - see attitude is recommended [85]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices fluctuated. The downstream开机率 was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [86]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [87].

Group 1: Economic and Market Developments - Trump is set to interview current Federal Reserve Governor Waller for the position of Fed Chair, with an announcement expected in early January [1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.62% and the Nasdaq up 0.23%, while major tech stocks like Tesla and Meta saw gains [2] - The international oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of nearly 2.73% [2] Group 2: Corporate News and Developments - AMD's CEO Lisa Su visited Lenovo's headquarters in Beijing, showcasing Lenovo's latest products and technologies [4] - Apple is expected to launch at least seven new iPhone models by fall 2027, including a foldable iPhone and a 20th-anniversary edition [5] - XPeng Motors received a license for L3 autonomous driving road tests in Guangzhou, while Huawei's Hongmeng Zhixing began internal testing for L3 capabilities [6] Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Changes - The EU plans to abandon the 2035 ban on internal combustion engines, allowing some plug-in hybrid vehicles and reducing emissions targets [9] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU pork products, ranging from 4.9% to 19.8%, effective from December 17 [22] - The Chinese government approved the establishment of a joint venture between Chilean companies for lithium mining, with conditions to ensure fair supply [15] Group 4: Industry Trends and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley predicts a copper supply deficit of 60,000 tons by 2026, indicating a tightening market [20] - The automotive sector in China saw significant growth in commercial vehicle production and sales, with November figures showing a year-on-year increase of 18.6% [21] - The postal industry in China reported a 6.7% increase in business revenue year-on-year for the first eleven months of the year [21]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.1%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,723.99 billion yuan [2][7] - In the industry sectors, retail, beauty care, and social services led the gains, while telecommunications, comprehensive services, and non-ferrous metals faced the largest declines. Concept sectors such as duty-free shops, ride-hailing, and pre-made dishes saw significant increases, while superconductors, newly listed tech stocks, and silicon energy concepts experienced notable declines [2][7] Market Performance - Domestic market performance showed the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,824.81, down 1.11%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,914.67, down 1.51%. The total trading volume was 1,723.99 billion yuan [4] - Internationally, the Dow Jones closed at 48,114.26, down 0.62%, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,800.26, down 0.24%. The Nasdaq, however, rose by 0.23% to 23,111.46 [4] Economic News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for 2025, focusing on boosting consumption from both supply and demand sides. Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market by controlling new supply and activating existing stock [3][8] Retail Data Analysis - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 438.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, marking a significant decline in growth rates compared to previous months [9][12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November was 0.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from October [9] - Retail sales in urban areas grew by 1.0% year-on-year, while rural areas saw a higher growth rate of 2.8% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail. Specific recommendations include: - For the liquor industry, it is believed to be in a bottoming phase with low valuations and high dividends providing support [13] - In the consumer goods sector, attention is drawn to dairy products, beverages, and condiments due to favorable conditions for profit release [13] - The social services sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in tourism, duty-free, and education [13] - In retail, gold and jewelry are recommended due to their appeal as safe-haven assets amid changing global trade environments [13]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The central financial office emphasizes that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, with domestic demand contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters of this year [1] - The social security fund aims to leverage long-term capital to support national development needs and promote high-quality development of the fund industry [1] Employment and Labor Market - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years [2] Capital Market Developments - International institutions like UBS and JPMorgan are optimistic about the profit improvement potential of Chinese assets, with foreign long-term funds net buying approximately $10 billion of A-shares and H-shares through various channels by November [2] - The central economic work conference calls for deepening capital market reforms, which may enhance the role of brokerages in direct financing services, leading to potential valuation recovery for brokerage stocks [2] Industry Highlights - The storage chip market is expected to see a price increase of 30%-35% for LPDDR4X/5X in Q1 2026 [5] - The global demand for lithium is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant increase in demand for energy storage batteries [5] - The National Medical Products Administration has approved the first invasive brain-computer interface product for treating drug addiction in China [5] - Alibaba has released a new generation of AI models aimed at professional film production and image creation [5] Company Updates - Muxi Co., a full-stack GPU manufacturer, has attracted market attention with its IPO, priced at 104.66 yuan per share, with potential for significant first-day gains [5] - Xichuang Data plans to invest up to 9 billion yuan in server procurement to enhance its cloud computing services [6] - Changan Automobile is set to trial L3 autonomous driving applications in Q1 2026 [7] - Huazhong Cable intends to acquire a 70% stake in San Zhu Technology to enhance its industry chain [7] - Luckin Coffee is considering acquiring Blue Bottle Coffee to enhance its brand image and expand into the high-end coffee market [8]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约多数高开、TL 低开，早盘震荡上行，午后略有回落，全天波 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 动幅度较小，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.19%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1173 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日合计净投放 180 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.45%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.44%。 | ...

Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The central economic work conference emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year [1][4] - Domestic demand has remained stable this year, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters, with effective consumption policies showing significant results [1][4] - However, there has been a recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth, indicating the need for continued efforts to boost domestic demand [1][4] Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Vanke announced a proposal to extend the principal repayment date of its fourth tranche of medium-term notes for 2022 by 12 months to December 15, 2026, with interest of 60 million yuan due on December 15, 2025, to be paid within a grace period [2][5] - During the grace period, unpaid principal will accrue interest at 3.00%, while unpaid interest will not accrue additional interest, and the coupon rate will remain unchanged at 3.00% [2][5] - After the market close on December 16, several companies disclosed shareholding changes, with some increasing their holdings and others, including Ningbo Color Masterbatch and Huashu Co., announcing reductions [2][5] Peripheral Markets and Related Assets - On Tuesday, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.62%, the Nasdaq up 0.23%, and the S&P 500 down 0.24% [3][6] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla gaining 3.07% and reaching a new closing high, while Qualcomm fell over 1% [3][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.34%, with notable declines in companies like Zhongjin Medical and Kandi Technologies [7] - International oil prices saw WTI crude oil drop 3% to below $55 per barrel, currently at $54.97, while Brent crude fell 2.58% below $59 per barrel [7]

来源：喜娜AI 一、国际新闻 国际金融市场方面，现货黄金价格持续走高，突破4310美元/盎司，日内涨幅达0.16%[1]。原油市场波 动显著，美国至12月12日当周API原油库存大幅减少932.2万桶，远超预期的-219.7万桶，而汽油库存则 增加483.5万桶[2]。受此影响，WTI原油价格失守55美元/桶，日内跌幅近3%，布伦特原油亦跌超2.5%至 59美元/桶下方[3][4]。加密货币市场中，比特币升破88000美元，日内涨幅1.82%[5]。 中国宏观政策层面，中央财办明确扩大内需为明年首位重点任务，今年前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率 达71%，但近几个月消费和投资增速放缓，需持续加力[27]。 企业动态方面，万科在上海清算所发布公告，提议将2022年度第四期中期票据本金兑付展期12个月至 2026年12月15日，利息6000万元将于12月22日前支付，并由发行人提供增信措施[28][29][30]。12月16 日，A股市场增减持动态显示，丽尚国潮、诺瓦星云等公司披露增持计划，宁波色母、赛微微电等5家 公司披露减持情况[31]。 航空领域，中国赴日航班数量大幅削减，明年1月3日至3月28日"富山-上海" ...

中信证券研报表示，2025年11月中国社零总额43,898亿元/同比+1.3%，低于Wind一致预期的+2.9%，限 额以上商品零售总额16,430亿元/同比-2.2%，剔除汽车、石油类限额以上零售额增速+1.8%。汽车高基 数叠加补贴退坡导致降幅走阔；粮油食品表现良好，日用品增速转负；低基数下可选表现平稳，国补品 类有所拖累；服务消费、餐饮收入稳健。11月社零读数低于预期，表明当前内需仍有待提振，商品销售 在补贴退坡后渐显疲弱。近期中共中央政治局会议、中央经济工作会议继续强调扩大内需的必要性，我 们认为，由于当前宏观环境仍然偏弱，消费景气的自身修复预计仍需时间，短期消费整体beta性机会可 关注财政刺激类政策的可能性。同时，基于当前产业观察，2026年建议重点关注财富效应传导、供给端 优化推动的经营拐点机会。而长期配置再次强调重视消费结构的变化。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...