1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - **MEG**: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - **Likely Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - **Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].

Summary of Report Core Content Group 1: Futures Contract Information - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on July 9 were 3623, 3354, 3623, 3440, and 3383 respectively, with daily changes of 34, 62, 34, 51, and 78, and weekly changes of 61, 105, 61, 72, and 89 [4]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on July 9 was 223,234, with a daily increase of 32,161 and a weekly decrease of 3,715. The open interest was 469,021, with a daily increase of 2,276 and a weekly decrease of 16,519 [4]. Group 3: Spot Market Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on July 9 were 3600, 3670, 3600, 3750, and 3850 respectively. The daily changes were 20, 0, - 10, 0, and - 50, and the weekly changes were 40, 20, 0, 0, and - 50 [4]. Group 4: Basis and Calendar Spread - On July 9, the Shandong - East China, Shandong - Northeast, and East - South China basis were - 70, - 250, and 70 respectively, with daily changes of 20, 70, and 10, and weekly changes of 20, 90, and 20. The 03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, and 12 - 03 calendar spreads were 29, - 269, 183, and 57 respectively, with daily changes of 16, 28, - 17, and - 27, and weekly changes of - 16, 44, - 11, and - 17 [4]. Group 5: Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 9 was - 74, with a daily decrease of 9 and a weekly decrease of 20. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit was 432, with a daily decrease of 11 and a weekly decrease of 12. The import profit from South Korea to East China was - 152, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 13. The import profit from Singapore to South China was - 959, with a daily decrease of 8 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4]. Group 6: Related Prices - On July 9, the price of Brent crude oil was 70.2, with a daily increase of 0.6 and a weekly increase of 1.0. The gasoline price in Shandong market was 7831, with a daily increase of 29 and a weekly increase of 102. The diesel price in Shandong market was 6811, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly increase of 16. The residual oil price in Shandong market was 3615, with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly decrease of 25 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is under pressure due to policy disturbances, but the slow - bull market may continue. The C2509 contract has a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400. It's advisable to buy on dips as the fundamentals are acceptable despite increased downward pressure and policy uncertainties [76]. - For corn starch, the price is cost - driven. The futures price is expected to move in the range of 2600 - 2800 for the CS2509 contract, with cost providing support and weak demand capping the upside [126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices stopped falling and entered a sideways pattern. As of July 7, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 403.75 cents per bushel, down 5.25 cents per bushel week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decline, reaching - 206,463 contracts as of July 1, a decrease of 24,181 contracts week - on - week [6]. - Domestic corn futures prices were weak, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2326 yuan per ton, down 2.19% week - on - week; open interest was 1,563,264 contracts, down 2.36% week - on - week. Bullish factors included low imports, nearly exhausted grassroots grain stocks, high purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the bottom - support from wheat's minimum purchase price. Bearish factors were the launch of imported corn auctions and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use [12]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts remained high and stable, reaching 203,732 contracts as of July 7, significantly higher than in previous years. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 625,400 contracts last week [14]. - The term structure of corn futures showed a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with the previous two weeks, futures prices generally declined, with the 09 contract having a relatively large decline. The C09 - C11 spread continued to weaken, falling out of the previous trading range, reaching 43 yuan per ton as of July 7, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton week - on - week. Market expectations turned pessimistic, and corn prices were under downward pressure in the third quarter [18]. - Corn spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 7, the national average corn spot price was 2432.55 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week - on - week. The futures - spot relationship deviated, with the market shifting to a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and the basis strengthened significantly, reaching 106.55 yuan per ton as of July 7, an increase of 73.26 yuan per ton week - on - week [22]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2680 yuan per ton, down 1.94% week - on - week; open interest was 278,828 contracts, up 17.52% week - on - week [82]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts remained stable at 22,922 contracts, a decrease of 900 contracts week - on - week. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 131,800 contracts last week, down 14.89% week - on - week [85]. - As of July 7, the national average price of Grade - 1 corn starch was 2893 yuan per ton, up 0.1% week - on - week; the basis was 213 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan per ton week - on - week [88]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts declined compared with last week, with similar decline rates, showing a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. As of July 7, the spread of the 09 contract was 354 yuan per ton, basically unchanged from last week [94]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA's June 2025/26 balance sheet lowered the beginning inventory by 1 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyiwang's May balance sheet raised the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, resulting in a continued increase in ending inventory [29]. - The growth progress of US corn was normal, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. As of the week of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [30]. - Corn imports remained at a low level. Since the second half of last year, with the tightening of import policies, China's corn imports have decreased significantly compared with previous years. In May this year, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a decrease of 93.8% compared with the same period last year [35]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning rebounded from a low level. Due to the launch of imported corn auctions and the recent decline in futures prices, grain traders' expectations for the future weakened, and their enthusiasm for selling increased. The weekly average number of remaining vehicles last week was 381 vehicles per day, a week - on - week increase of 12.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.64% [36]. - Imported corn auctions were launched, resulting in a decrease in the two - way trading activity, with sales activity still acceptable but procurement completely stagnant, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 1.72 million tons [39]. - Port corn inventories decreased seasonally. As of June 27, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous week; the domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 3,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [41]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn inventories began to decline again, and feed enterprises' corn inventories continued to decline slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from June 27; the available days of feed enterprises' corn inventory were 31.96 days, a decrease of 1.93% from June 27 [45]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn consumption decreased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 104,120 tons, a decrease of 0.90% from June 27; the consumption of 149 deep - processing enterprises was 117,630 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from June 27 [48]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased by 7.3% and 8.1% year - on - year respectively, while the output of concentrated feed decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [54]. - In May, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a relatively large increase [55]. - Pig prices fluctuated upward, but the pig - raising profit was limited. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19.2 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%; the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 139 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 84.27% [57]. - The pig - to - grain ratio stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 7, 2025, the Steel Union's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%; the NDRC's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.21, a week - on - week increase of 1.31% [61]. - Wheat prices remained stable, and the wheat - corn price spread remained low, leading to an increase in the substitution ratio of wheat for feed use. As of July 7, 2025, the wheat spot price was 2442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the wheat - corn price spread was 0, a year - on - year decrease of 87.04% [64]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 7, 2025, the spread in Suihua, Heilongjiang was 440 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30; the spread in Weifang, Shandong was 460 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30 [99]. - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates and output remained stable. As of July 4, 2025, the operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 51.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%; the output was 264,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [102]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses continued to narrow. As of July 7, 2025, the profit of corn starch enterprises in Hebei was 13 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan from June 30; the profit in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan from June 30 [109]. - Corn starch inventories increased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the total inventory of major starch enterprises nationwide was 1.313 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the inventory in Heilongjiang was 613,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% [113]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 4, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 260,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the operating rate of F55 fructose syrup was 55.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [119]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - As of July 5, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - season corn was 97.2%, up from 95.4% last week; the harvesting rate of the second - season corn was 27.7%, up from 17% last week [73]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, up from 1,380,943 tons the previous week. So far this crop year, the cumulative US corn export inspection volume was 56,446,111 tons, compared with 43,523,109 tons in the same period of the previous year [73]. - The USDA announced that 13，500 tons of corn had been sold to Mexico, with 2,900 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2024/2025 market year and 10,600 tons in the 2025/2026 market year [73]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 369,500 tons of corn, with an average daily shipping volume of 18,500 tons per day, a decrease of 56.57% compared with July last year [73]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, CBOT corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract up 2.3%, rebounding from an eight - and - a - half - month low last week [73]. - Hebei launched the minimum purchase price for wheat, and the成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. On July 2, 2025, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced the launch of the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in Hebei. The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased from 97% on July 1 to 54% on July 8 [75]. - It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue. Although the recent corn futures prices have weakened and fallen below the previous support level, while the spot prices have risen slightly but may have reached a peak. The basis has strengthened significantly. Considering the bullish and bearish factors, the C2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400 [76]. Corn Starch - Due to weak downstream demand, the industry operating rate remained low. It is expected that the operating rate in the Northeast region will decrease significantly next week. From July 3 - 9, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week; the operating rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% from last week [125]. - The domestic corn starch spot market price continued to be strong, with fewer low - end transactions. Due to the low supply of raw corn and increasing costs, the cost side strongly supported the price. However, due to weak downstream demand, high - price sales were difficult, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain stable at a high level [125]. - Corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, the spot price was stable, enterprises' losses continued to narrow, the operating rate was low, downstream demand was insufficient, and inventories increased slightly. The corn starch market is cost - driven and generally follows the corn market. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800 [125][126].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking spread fluctuated downward, the near-month spread declined, and the EW was in a low-level oscillation. The 380 8-9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 domestic and foreign spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 cracking spread declined slightly, the month spread oscillated, and the 8-9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU domestic and foreign spreads remained strong, with the 09 oscillating around $17. This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near month was under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, the domestic and foreign spreads had dropped rapidly, the foreign low-sulfur valuation was high, and the LU domestic and foreign spreads were running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [3][4] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by $5.66, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by $4.57, the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased by $0.02, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $13.76, the Rotterdam VLSFO-GO M1 decreased by $9.19, the LGO-Brent M1 increased by $1.28, and the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 decreased by $1.09. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by $7.37, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by $6.98, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by $6.99, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by $0.43, the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 increased by $0.19, and the Singapore VLSFO-GO M1 increased by $10.17. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by $9.62, the FOB VLSFO price increased by $5.90, the 380 basis increased by $1.25, the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spread decreased by $2.3, and the low-sulfur domestic and foreign spread increased by $0.6. [2] Domestic FU Data - From July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 21, the price of FU 05 increased by 13, the price of FU 09 increased by 25, the FU 01-05 spread increased by 8, the FU 05-09 spread decreased by 12, and the FU 09-01 spread increased by 4. [2] Domestic LU Data - From July 2, 2025, to July 8, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 31, the price of LU 05 increased by 44, the price of LU 09 increased by 44, the LU 01-05 spread decreased by 13, the LU 05-09 spread remained unchanged, and the LU 09-01 spread increased by 13. [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 689.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; I01 closed at 707.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of I05 - I09 remained unchanged at -43.5 yuan/ton; I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 yuan to 26.0 yuan/ton; I01 - I05 increased by 1.0 yuan to 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed different price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines (卡粉) increased by 2.0 yuan to 815 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining unchanged at 34 yuan; the price of Macarthur River fines (麦克粉) increased by 3.0 yuan to 708 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 30 yuan [6]. Group 4: Variety Spread - **Spread Changes**: Many variety spreads changed. For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines decreased by 1.0 yuan to 148.0 yuan/ton; the spread of FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan to 48.0 yuan/ton [13]. Group 5: Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, 乌克兰精粉) were added, and the brand premium for all was set to 0, effective from the I2202 contract. Four more varieties (太钢精粉, 马钢精粉, 五矿标准粉, SP10粉) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. - **Brand Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges for other elements were set. A dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium (X) was introduced [11]. Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [26].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coke is broad - range fluctuations [1] - The investment rating for coking coal is leading by expectation and broad - range fluctuations [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamental data, price, and position information of coking coal and coke, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, and spreads, to assist in understanding the market trends of these two commodities [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: JM2509 closed at 891 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (1.02%); J2509 closed at 1424.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.14%). JM2509 had a trading volume of 723,095 lots and a position of 544,987 lots, with a decrease of 4,404 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 16,389 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: There were no changes in most spot prices of coking coal and coke, but some showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of Fengjing converted to RMB decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Meng3 warehouse receipt increased by 21 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke also showed certain changes. For instance, the basis of JM2509 for Meng5 decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2509 for Shanxi quasi - first arrival price decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [2] Price and Position - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports were as follows: 1250 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal in Jingtang Port, 1215 yuan/ton for Australian coking coal in Qingdao Port, 1215 yuan/ton in Lianyungang Port, 1130 yuan/ton in Rizhao Port, and 1205 yuan/ton in Tianjin Port [2] - **July 8th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu increased by 15 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng5) in Shaheyi increased by 4 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng3) in Shaheyi increased by 21 yuan/ton [3] - **Position Situation**: On July 8th, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,491 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,293 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 180 lots, and the short positions decreased by 59 lots [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: July 9, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The BU main contract price on July 8 was 3589, with a daily change of 23 and a weekly change of 25. Different contract months (BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) also showed various price changes [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on July 8 was 191073, with a daily increase of 10177 and a weekly decrease of 52750 [4]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on July 8 was 466745, with a daily decrease of 1654 and a weekly decrease of 27458 [4]. - **Combined Volume**: The combined volume on July 8 was 52390, with a daily decrease of 620 and a weekly decrease of 4620 [4]. Spot Market - **Regional Low - end Prices**: On July 8, the low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China markets were 3580, 3670, 3610, 3750, and 3900 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [4]. - **Specific Spot Prices**: The prices of some specific brands like Jingbo (Haiyun), Runhai, and Modong (Xin Bohai) also had corresponding changes [4]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends. For example, the Shandong basis on July 8 was - 9, with a daily change of - 13 and a weekly change of - 25 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contract months (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12, 12 - 03) also had their own changes. For instance, the 06 - 09 spread on July 8 was - 297, with a daily change of - 15 and a weekly change of 12 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread**: The asphalt Brent crack spread on July 8 was - 64, with a daily change of - 57 and a weekly change of - 135 [4]. - **Profit**: The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on July 8 was 442, with a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly decrease of 97. The import profits from South Korea to East China and Singapore to South China also had different changes [4]. Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Product Prices**: The Brent crude oil price on July 8 was 69.6, with a daily increase of 1.3 and a weekly increase of 2.5. The prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil in the Shandong market also changed [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The Iranian methanol plants are further resuming production, leading to an increase in overseas supply. The port basis is weak, and there is still a large pressure of arrivals in July. There are intentions to conduct maintenance on externally - purchased MTO units in late July, and the port is currently in an inventory - building cycle. However, there are expectations of winter maintenance of overseas natural gas - based methanol plants and the commissioning of externally - purchased methanol MTO units in the fourth quarter, presenting a situation of weak current conditions but strong future expectations. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows sufficient resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Includes multiple figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and import spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [26][27][28] 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - Relevant figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the operation rate of MTO/P (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [34][35][37] 4. Regional Price Spreads - Figures illustrate regional price spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][58] Market Data Inland Area - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 690 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). Inland methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1985 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 193 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2295 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton), with a basis of 103 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton); Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 17 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 53 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton). The inventory of inland plants is 352,280 tons (up 10,730 tons), and the inventory of plants in the Northwest is 223,500 tons (up 18,000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 233,250 tons (down 7,450 tons), and those of plants in the Northwest are 110,400 tons (down 9,100 tons) [1] Port Area - Methanol in Taicang is 2425 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), with a basis of 33 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton); CFR China is 282 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton), and the import spread in East China is - 9 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). Methanol in Changzhou is 2420 yuan/ton; methanol in Guangdong is 2435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), with a basis of 43 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan/ton). The total port inventory is 673,660 tons (up 3,160 tons), the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 333,000 tons (down 23,500 tons), the inventory in Zhejiang ports is 176,500 tons (up 37,000 tons), and the inventory in Guangdong ports is 120,500 tons (down 13,500 tons). The operation rate of downstream MTO is 84.60% (down 2.19%) [2] Regional Price Spreads - The spread of Lubei - Northwest - 280 is - 25 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread of Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 110 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan/ton); the spread of Taicang - Lunan - 250 is - 120 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Lunan - Taicang - 100 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); the spread of Guangdong - East China - 180 is - 170 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton); the spread of East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] Strategy - For the 9 - 1 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the index trends, the influence of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock - index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock - index futures contract roll - overs on July 7th. It provides detailed data on various indices and futures contracts. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On July 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to close at 3473.13 points with a trading volume of 476.197 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7% to close at 10435.51 points with a trading volume of 732.444 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24% with a trading volume of 264.835 billion yuan, opening at 6305.04, closing at 6327.14, with a daily high of 6333.51 and a low of 6303.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.19% with a trading volume of 165.759 billion yuan, opening at 5901.4, closing at 5900.41, with a daily high of 5910.8 and a low of 5889.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% with a trading volume of 56.66 billion yuan, opening at 2736.01, closing at 2731.53, with a daily high of 2736.26 and a low of 2723.96 [1]. Sector Fluctuations' Influence on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 14.94 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as utilities, computers, and basic chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose - 11.03 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors like utilities, non - bank finance, and real estate significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose - 17.03 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking sector significantly pulled the index up, while biomedicine, power equipment, and electronics pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose - 8.91 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking and national defense and military industries significantly pulled the index up, while coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages pulled it down [2]. Stock - Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 53.6, IM01 of - 131.34, IM02 of - 209.83, and IM03 of - 393.64 [13]. - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.29, IC01 of - 95.74, IC02 of - 151.11, and IC03 of - 276.72 [13]. - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 19.74, IF01 of - 37.22, IF02 of - 47.52, and IF03 of - 84.05 [13]. - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 17.1, IH01 of - 22.69, IH02 of - 23.55, and IH03 of - 24.24 [13]. Stock - Index Futures Contract Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM futures, detailed 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) and their corresponding annualized costs are provided [23]. - For IC futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are presented [25]. - For IF futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are given [25]. - For IH futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are shown [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side. After the rapid decline of the spot basis, the bottom - supporting effect may appear. In the short term, the PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results and polyester load fluctuations [5][6]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, pay attention to the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - PTA: - Fundamental: In July, there is not much maintenance, and there is an expectation of the commissioning of the Sanfangxiang PTA device. The supply has increased year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season atmosphere. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has accumulated, and there is a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market. Recently, the spot market negotiation has been relatively light, and the basis is weak. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. [6] - Basis: The spot price is 4790, the basis of the 09 contract is 80, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. [7] - Basis: The spot price is 4347, the basis of the 09 contract is 68, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing factors: - Bullish: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - Bearish: Iran confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season, and the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the disk rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [9][10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products from July 4 to July 7, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][51]. - Operating Rate: It shows the operating rate changes of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][55][57][59]. - Profit: It shows the profit changes of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][66][68][69][70].