Group 1 - The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total tariff to 50%, impacting key exports like textiles and automotive parts [1] - India has responded by suspending certain tariff benefits to the US and plans to seek trade adjustments through the WTO [1] - Energy cooperation is a significant factor in the US-India trade tensions, with India continuing to purchase Russian oil despite US pressure [1] Group 2 - China has publicly supported India during the US-India tensions, with the Chinese ambassador stating that silence only encourages bullying [3] - China's support for India is seen as a strategic move, as India is viewed as a less significant threat compared to China by the US [3] - The trade volume between China and India is projected to reach $138.4 billion in 2024, with China being India's largest trading partner [3] Group 3 - There are ongoing discussions between China, Russia, and India to restore a trilateral cooperation mechanism amid deteriorating US-India relations [5] - Recent improvements in China-India relations include agreements on direct flights and government dialogue mechanisms [5] - India's Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of mutual learning between China and India, rejecting US mediation in border disputes [5] Group 4 - The potential for a 60% decline in Indian exports to the US if the 50% tariff remains in place poses a risk to India's GDP [7] - Major Indian manufacturers are halting expansion plans due to the high tariffs, indicating significant economic pressure [7] - India's foreign policy is characterized by uncertainty, but the current US-India tensions may provide India with an opportunity to adjust its diplomatic stance [7]

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属低位上行，沪金主力收涨0.46%，沪银主力收涨1.89%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月零售销售强 劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至 80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压， 人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has publicly stated that "the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine war must go through India," indicating a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards India [1] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued import of Russian oil, escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and India [3][4] - The U.S. government's actions are seen as a response to perceived threats to national security and economic interests, with the tariffs being part of a broader strategy to pressure India [3][4] Group 2 - India's response to the U.S. tariffs has been one of strong criticism, emphasizing the need to protect its national interests and energy security [3][4] - The imposition of a 50% tariff is expected to severely impact several labor-intensive industries in India, including textiles, seafood, jewelry, and auto parts [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes highlight the complexities of U.S.-India relations, with potential long-term implications for both countries [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline have raised significant concerns regarding energy security in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly for countries heavily reliant on Russian energy supplies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Pipeline Attacks and Energy Supply Disruptions - The Druzhba pipeline has faced three supply interruptions in August alone due to attacks, highlighting the ongoing threat to energy infrastructure amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. - The pipeline, which spans approximately 4,000 kilometers, is crucial for oil supply to several Central and Eastern European countries, including Hungary and Slovakia, making them particularly vulnerable to disruptions [1][3]. - The attacks have prompted Slovakia to initiate urgent investigations into the damages and to suspend certain energy transfer processes [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications and Responses - The conflict has turned energy infrastructure into a battleground, with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of "energy terrorism" and retaliatory strikes [5]. - Hungary's position remains neutral, opposing sanctions against Russia and emphasizing the detrimental impact of such measures on its own energy security [5][7]. - The differing stances of Hungary and Slovakia reflect the complex geopolitical landscape in Central and Eastern Europe, where energy dependence on Russia complicates alignment with broader EU policies supporting Ukraine [5][7]. Group 3: Broader Energy Crisis and Calls for Dialogue - The ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure exacerbate the energy crisis in Europe and contribute to regional instability, with international consensus urging restraint and a return to dialogue [7]. - The need for political solutions to ensure energy security and long-term stability in the region is emphasized as a common goal among European nations and the international community [7].

Core Insights - The international crude oil market is experiencing a rare reversal in its pricing structure due to expectations of oversupply and geopolitical factors [1] - Brent crude futures prices fell below Dubai crude by 3 cents per barrel, marking the first negative spread since April of this year [1] - This price inversion indicates significant changes in the supply-demand fundamentals in the key European and Asian markets [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary factor leading to the weakening of Brent prices is the market's pessimistic outlook on future supply [1] - Traders expect that both OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase production, resulting in an oversupply situation in the coming months [1] - This expectation has not only depressed the forward prices of Brent futures but also weakened the inter-month price spread, which typically signals ample short-term supply and a bearish market sentiment [1] Geopolitical Influences - Demand for Middle Eastern crude has been unexpectedly boosted by geopolitical factors [1] - Reports indicate that U.S. President Trump is pressuring India regarding the procurement of Russian oil, leading Indian refiners to seek alternative supplies from the Middle East [1] - As most crude oil exported from the Persian Gulf is priced based on Dubai crude, this additional demand has provided stronger support for Dubai prices compared to Brent, ultimately driving the reversal in their price spread [1]

今日周一(8月25日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于38.82一线下方，今日开盘于38.89美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报38.75美元/盎司，下跌0.18%，最高触及39.00美元/盎司，最低下探38.74美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 周日（8月24日），乌克兰在独立日当天对俄罗斯发动了一系列无人机袭击，不仅令俄罗斯最大核电站之一的库尔斯克 核电站运行受限，还引发了诺瓦泰克旗下乌斯季卢加燃料码头的大火。与此同时，国际局势也出现了微妙变化，美国五 角大楼对乌克兰使用美制武器的限制引发热议，而俄罗斯总统普京则透露俄美关系可能迎来转机，双方或将在北极与阿 拉斯加展开合作。这一连串事件不仅牵动俄乌冲突的走向，也为全球地缘政治格局增添了新的不确定性。 国际白银上个周期成功上涨至39附近，目前收盘还是在39附近，相对来讲，白银的走势比黄金更加强势，本周白银在多 头趋势下继续看上涨空间，预计上方目标可以看到39.5高点。但如果本周白银出现调整空间，下方关注38.5支撑点得 失，跌破38.5后白银也有可能会陷入震荡走势。今日白银下方关注38.60美元或38.20美元支撑，上方关注 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent strategy of positioning for a long position in gold at lower levels has yielded positive results, with gold prices successfully rebounding after reaching entry points [1] - The market sentiment has been influenced by dovish signals from Powell, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has driven gold prices upward [7] - The technical analysis shows that on the daily chart, gold is trading above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of a potential bullish crossover in the MACD indicator, indicating a clear demand for a rebound [8] Group 2 - For aggressive traders, it is suggested to enter long positions near the support level of $3300 per ounce, while more conservative traders should consider entering around $3270-$3280 per ounce [8] - The futures market for gold is influenced by international gold prices and exchange rates, with support at 770 RMB per gram and resistance around 775 RMB per gram, indicating a range for trading [8] - Overall market conditions are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for stop-loss and take-profit strategies in trading [8]

Group 1 - The recent increase in tariffs by the US on India has unexpectedly catalyzed changes in the geopolitical landscape of Asia, revealing the fragility of US alliances under its "America First" policy [1][3] - India, traditionally seen as a counterweight to Eastern powers, is reassessing its position due to economic pressures from the US and pragmatic cooperation with Eastern nations, narrowing its strategic options [3] - The Eastern power has implemented two key strategies: deepening economic cooperation to strengthen mutual interests and maintaining restraint on border issues to foster dialogue, which alleviates India's strategic anxieties [1] Group 2 - The US's tariff policy, intended to suppress competitors, has inadvertently prompted Asian countries to adjust their strategies, highlighting the shortsightedness of US geopolitical strategy [3] - The Eastern power's approach of cooperation is quietly reshaping the Asian order, contrasting with the US's reliance on tariffs as a strategic tool [3]

Group 1 - The Canadian government has decided to compromise by adjusting previously imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, canceling most tariffs while temporarily retaining tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - Canada was the only developed country to directly confront the U.S. since the new trade agreement pushed by Trump, imposing a 35% tariff on U.S. goods starting August 1, 2018, significantly higher than the 15% tariffs imposed by other developed nations [1][2] - The economic pressure from the U.S. has forced Canada to reconsider its stance, as its economy is closely tied to the U.S., necessitating a balance of internal interests [2] Group 2 - Trump's long-term plan may involve integrating Canada into the U.S. political system, with a probability exceeding 60% that Canada could become a U.S. state by the end of 2028 [4] - The U.S. aims to strengthen economic ties with Mexico while also seeking to consolidate its influence over South American countries like Brazil and Argentina [4]

Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report from AVIC Futures dated August 22, 2025 [2] - The main view is that this week, the asphalt fundamentals continued the characteristics of weak supply and demand. The supply - side weekly output and operating rate decreased, and the demand - side shipment volume decreased slightly. The refinery inventory still showed a slight accumulation, while the social inventory decreased. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the asphalt price is dominated by crude oil fluctuations. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes [6][62] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the BU2510 contract [6] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include low refinery inventory and marginal macro - improvement [9] - Bearish factors include lower - than - expected demand and insufficient upward drive on the cost side [9] Macroeconomic Analysis - The results of the meetings between the US and Russia, and the US and European countries basically met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. However, the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations still needs to be tracked [10] - The risk of "secondary tariffs" has subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for the time being, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [11] Data Analysis Supply - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from last week. Some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, and some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns [12] - As of August 20, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly [22] Demand - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 391,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The demand weakened due to rainfall [23] - As of August 22, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 16.99%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from last week. Except for Southwest and South China, the capacity utilization rates in other regions remained stable [26] Import and Export - In July, domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [31] - In July, domestic asphalt exports were 55,700 tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [36] Inventory - As of August 22, the refinery inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 716,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The refinery shipments were poor due to the impact of rainfall on demand [46] - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The decrease was due to weak downstream demand and reduced refinery output [53] Spread - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt processing diluted weekly profit was - 474.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 20, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.97, and as of August 21, the asphalt basis was 255 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread remained stable [60]