并保留我公司的一切权利 分析师：吴剑剑 从业资格证号：F03132084 投资咨询证书号：Z0020830 免责声明： 本报告中信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述期货操作的依据。由于报告在撰写时融入了研究员个人的观点和见解以及分析方法，如与国联期货发 布的其他信息有不一致及有不同的结论，未免发生疑问，本报告所载的观点并不代表国联期货公司的立场，所以请谨慎参考。我公司及其研究员对使 用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告所提供资料、分析及预测只是反映国联期货公司在本报告所载明日期的判断，可随时修改，毋需提前通知。 任何机构和个人不得进行任何形式的复制和发布 如遵循原文本意的引用 黑色周报 20251207 | | 虚高的反噬 | | --- | --- | | | 1、黑色品种，特别是焦煤，交割压力得以充分体现，上月的虚高导致 | | 策略观点 | 了当前的反噬；2、螺纹热卷下方空间不大，但向上需要政策和情绪的 发酵；3、矿石的焦点在长协谈判对市场的影响，箱体特征显著；4、 | | | 玻璃现货下跌空间有限，但期 ...

市场言论和投资者焦点往往会随着时间转变。在当前美国政策多变和科技创新加速的环境下，这种现象尤为明显。 年初至今，关税不明朗因素、通胀压力和美国债务攀升曾是市场的主要忧虑，但经济表现强韧和人工智能推动的强劲盈利克服了这些挑战，支持风险资产在 年初至今表现出色，多项股票指数创下历史新高。 展望未来，我们认为风险资产或仍有进一步上行的空间，但个中原因已有所不同。最大的变化在于市场观望美国降息的日子即将结束：美联储对通胀压力可 能温和且逐步的降温更有信心，决策者的焦点正转向经济增长温和放缓。在此背景下，债券市场有望受惠于降息，我们最近已再次上调投资级别债券的观点 至偏高，对冲基金则下调至中性观点。股债相关度下降，令债券的分散风险效益有所提升。此外，随着美元现金利率下降，原本倾向持有现金资产的投资者 或会考虑布局债市。 来源：汇丰 =丰私人银行 目录 04 欢迎辞 05 投资组合策略 10 五大投资趋势和精选主题 20 股票 つつ 24 外汇和大宗商品 26 对冲基金 28 房地产行业 30 私募市场 32 撰稿人 亚洲应对世界新秩序 10 科技颠覆 12 气候行动 14 社会演进 16 把握盈利和降息顺风时机 18 ...

据智通财经12月3日报道，多地多数电动车行已经开始售卖新国标电动车，不过在售的新国标电动车型 号单一，且数量并不多，每辆新车成本价上涨约几百元不等。 另据大河财立方报道，有家绿源电动车店主称，"新国标在安全方面有很大提升，但价格有所上涨。"据 介绍，新国标电动自行车定价为2799元，同等电池规格的旧国标产品定价为1699元。 12月1日，电动自行车强制性新国标（GB 17761-2024）全面落地实施，被称为"史上最严"的新国标，通 过材料阻燃、身份追溯、技术管控等多维度提升安全门槛。12月1日起，旧版标准车辆同步禁止销售。 据报道，新国标规定，电动自行车车速不超过25km/h时，使用塑料总质量不超过整车质量的5.5%，提 出增加北斗定位、通信与动态安全监测功能，还鼓励电动自行车安装后视镜和转向灯。 华创证券指出，电动自行车24国标本质上是一次更深度的供给侧改革，通过强化企业自产车架等关键零 部件的能力，设立更高的资金和资质壁垒，加速中小厂商出清，进一步提升行业集中度。 尽管短期面临去库存压力，但中长期看，行业需求仍具备增长空间。此外，新国标将加速产品向智能 化、高端化升级，盈利能力有望得到提升。另外，软件订 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **construction materials, steel, and non-ferrous metals industries**. The focus is on the cyclical nature of these sectors and the impact of government policies on supply and demand dynamics [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The "anti-involution" policy aims to curb vicious competition through government intervention and leading enterprises, promoting supply contraction. This has led to significant improvements in the steel industry after the elimination of substandard steel [1][2]. - **Current Industry Position**: Both the construction materials and steel industries are at the bottom of the cycle, with cement companies experiencing declining shipment volumes and some reporting losses. The steel sector shows slight improvement in profitability compared to last year, but remains weak due to high iron ore prices and cost pressures from coking coal [1][4]. - **Housing Policy Impact**: The new housing policy emphasizes quality design and materials, encouraging construction material companies to develop high-quality products to meet the growing demand for comfortable living environments in the existing housing market [1][4]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals Appeal**: The non-ferrous metals sector is attractive due to expectations of global economic recovery, supply chain tensions, and increased demand from the new energy industry. However, uncertainties from global economic and policy changes must be monitored [1][5]. - **Investment Drivers for Non-Ferrous Metals**: The rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by macro demand, supply-side vulnerabilities, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Fiscal expansions in Europe and the U.S., along with domestic manufacturing upgrades, are boosting metal demand [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Supply-Side Vulnerabilities**: Despite high prices for copper and aluminum, new capacity and mining capital expenditures remain low. Existing mines face challenges such as geopolitical risks and natural disasters, limiting supply increases [6][8]. - **Investment Signals**: Key indicators for assessing investment opportunities in cyclical industries include PB (Price-to-Book) and ROE (Return on Equity). High PB and ROE suggest a peak in the industry cycle, while macroeconomic conditions and policy changes, such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve, significantly impact market liquidity and industry performance [9][10]. - **Future Outlook for 2026**: The cyclical sectors are expected to present structural investment opportunities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, as anticipated interest rate cuts may lead to increased liquidity. However, caution is advised as current valuations may not be low [17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the construction materials, steel, and non-ferrous metals industries.

Summary of Hangyang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Hangyang Co., Ltd. is a leading industrial gas company in China, benefiting from the stability of pipeline gas business and the flexibility of retail gas business, with a projected performance of approximately 1 billion yuan in 2025, primarily driven by pipeline gas contributions [2][12] Core Business Segments - The company's revenue structure consists of 70% from pipeline gas and 30% from retail gas, with plans to gradually increase the retail gas proportion to enhance profitability [2][5] - Core business areas include industrial gas equipment, pipeline gas, and retail gas, with pipeline and retail gas being significant growth drivers [10] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese industrial gas market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding over 70% market share. Hangyang is among these leaders, and successful integration with Yingde Gas could significantly enhance market share and pricing power [2][6] - The investment logic for the industrial gas industry in 2026 is based on supply-side reforms and increased market concentration, with expected profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) close to 20% over the next three years [4] Growth Opportunities - Hangyang is actively expanding into controllable nuclear fusion, commercial aerospace, and hydrogen energy sectors, aligning with national development priorities under the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will provide new growth momentum [2][8] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector is expected to create significant demand for low-temperature systems, with potential value contribution of 5% to 16% from this business [7] Competitive Positioning - Hangyang's current valuation is approximately 20 times earnings, lower than international peers like Linde and Air Liquide, which are valued at 25-30 times. The company’s valuation is expected to align more closely with these peers as it advances in nuclear fusion and industry consolidation [3][9][15] - The company possesses strong defensive attributes due to long-term contracts in pipeline gas, ensuring stable revenue even during economic downturns [11][12] Future Projections - Hangyang's performance is projected to grow by over 15% in 2025, with sustained growth of around 20% in 2026 and 2027. If the economic cycle reverses, growth rates could exceed 30% or even 50%, indicating potential for the market capitalization to double [2][9][15] Conclusion - Hangyang Co., Ltd. is well-positioned in the industrial gas sector with a robust growth strategy, strong market presence, and significant opportunities in emerging fields, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the context of industry consolidation and technological advancements [2][4][8]

Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Background - The supply-side reform aims to address excessive capacity in the midstream and upstream sectors after a decade of expansion in export manufacturing and significant infrastructure investment[1] - In 2015, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises in China fell to 74%, below the international standard of 75% for severe overcapacity[8] - By 2015, 13 out of 14 major industrial sectors were experiencing severe overcapacity, particularly in heavy industries like steel and coal[9] Group 2: Causes of Overcapacity - Overcapacity was primarily driven by excessive external and internal demand expansion, leading to abnormal capacity growth[2] - Local governments, incentivized by GDP growth targets, contributed to overcapacity by supporting state-owned enterprises in upstream investments[2] - The overcapacity issue was exacerbated by repeated construction of heavy industrial projects, driven by local government interests in boosting GDP and tax revenues[10] Group 3: Economic Impact - From 2012 to 2015, domestic industrial prices plummeted, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) recording negative values for three consecutive years[10] - By 2015, the total debt in six overcapacity industries reached 10 trillion yuan, with 8.7 trillion yuan classified as debt[15] - The banking sector faced rising non-performing loan rates, with the total non-performing loan balance reaching 1.2744 trillion yuan by the end of 2015, a 51.2% increase from the previous year[65] Group 4: Capacity Reduction Strategies - The reform included three main strategies: administrative capacity reduction, industry self-discipline with staggered production, and market-driven natural clearance[17][18][79] - Administrative measures focused on controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging enterprise restructuring, particularly in state-dominated sectors like steel and coal[17] - The steel industry saw a reduction of 120 million tons of crude steel capacity from 2016 to 2017, achieving 80% of its capacity reduction target[28] Group 5: Outcomes of Supply-Side Reform - The steel industry's capacity utilization improved significantly, with the industry concentration rising to 60% by 2020[29] - The coal industry eliminated 810 million tons of capacity between 2016 and 2018, exceeding the targets set for the 13th Five-Year Plan[30] - The cement industry's profits increased from 33 billion yuan in 2015 to 154.6 billion yuan in 2018, reflecting improved pricing and profitability[33]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has become a central theme in China's economic transformation, aiming to eliminate low-level price wars and promote quality and innovation across various industries [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - A series of policies targeting both traditional and emerging industries have been introduced, including the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Price Law, to create a differentiated governance system [1][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has proposed stricter capacity constraints in the steel industry, requiring a replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron and steel production [2] - The coal industry is implementing annual production targets and conducting inspections to curb excessive production, while the cement industry is promoting self-discipline to address regional supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Developments - In the photovoltaic sector, a joint effort by six departments aims to curb low-price competition and establish a pricing mechanism to prevent illegal practices [2] - The automotive industry is undergoing a series of governance actions to address issues like bottomless price wars and long payment terms, with a commitment to limit payment terms to no more than 60 days [3] - The implementation of the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and Price Law provides legal support for the "anti-involution" efforts, promoting a healthier market environment [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Industrial profits have shown positive growth, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase from January to October, and profits in the equipment manufacturing sector rising by 7.8% [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has begun to recover, indicating a rational return of industrial product prices, particularly in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors [7] - The lithium battery industry has seen a significant price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising nearly 50% to over 90,000 yuan per ton due to rational capacity adjustments and steady demand growth [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a more reasonable distribution of profits within the industrial chain, as inefficient capacities are phased out and competition shifts towards technological innovation [4] - The automotive market is projected to recover, supported by national consumption promotion policies and the ongoing "anti-involution" measures [5] - Analysts suggest that the next phase of the "anti-involution" policy should focus on demand-side optimization to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand, ensuring sustainable economic growth [8]

2025年，"反内卷"成为贯穿中国经济转型的核心关键词。从"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"首次被写入政府工 作报告，到国家发展改革委、市场监管总局联合公告治理价格无序竞争，再到修订后的反不正当竞争法 正式施行、价格法修正草案公开征求意见……一系列政策组合拳覆盖传统产业与新兴领域，通过供给侧 改革深化与市场化引导协同发力，推动多个行业逐步摆脱低水平价格战的泥潭，迈向以质量和创新为核 心的发展新阶段。 最新经济数据印证了政策成效。8月以来，规模以上工业企业利润累计增速已连续3个月实现正增长；10 月份，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比结束持平态势，年内首次回升，同比降幅亦连续第3个月收 窄。 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光分析指出，前三季度工业企业利润整体向好，核心得 益于年中以来持续加码的"反内卷"政策，这反映出经济微观层面已实现表观修复，但深层次的活力仍有 待激发。 构建差异化治理体系 本轮"反内卷"政策打破"一刀切"惯性，针对传统产业与新兴领域的不同痛点，构建起差异化、靶向性的 治理体系，既延续了供给侧结构性改革的成熟经验，又创新了市场化治理工具，形成多层次制度保障。 传统产业层面，政策延续总量 ...

2025 年 12 月 03 日 开源晨会 1203 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 石油石化 0.707 轻工制造 0.550 家用电器 0.426 建筑材料 0.321 通信 0.27 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.750 | | 有色金属 | -1.358 | | 计算机 | -1.336 | | 医药生物 | -1.232 | | 电力设备 | -1.184 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】通向供需新均衡——2026 年宏观展望-20251202 "十五五"规划的三大要点：承前启后、科技强国、扩大内需。通向供需新均衡： 供给&需求、内需&外需、投资&消费。宏观政策更加积极：适时降准降息、广义 赤 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing popularity of Jilin's ski resorts as an alternative to international destinations like Hokkaido, Japan, due to recent flight cancellations and the appeal of local options [6][18] - Jilin's ski resorts, particularly Songhua Lake, are highlighted for their quality snow conditions, accessibility, and overall experience, making them attractive to both seasoned skiers and new visitors [9][20] Demand Side - Skiing is described as a "white opium," indicating a strong demand among enthusiasts who feel a physiological need to ski during winter [8] - Jilin's geographical advantages, such as its latitude, contribute to favorable snow conditions, making it a viable alternative for high-end ski experiences [9] - The province has seen a significant increase in domestic tourism orders, with a reported 560% year-on-year growth during the 2025 ice and snow season [6][12] Supply Side - Improved transportation infrastructure, including the construction of the Shenbai high-speed railway, has reduced travel time to Jilin, making it as accessible as other popular ski destinations [11][12] - The development of new facilities and attractions, such as expanded ski areas and unique terrain features, enhances the overall visitor experience [17][18] - The rise in demand is reflected in rapid sales of ski packages, with Jilin's offerings selling out within 30 minutes during peak booking times [12][13] Experience and Social Dynamics - Jilin is evolving from a destination primarily for hardcore skiers to a broader appeal, attracting diverse visitors seeking unique winter experiences [20][24] - The region is leveraging social media to reshape its image, focusing on the romantic and experiential aspects of winter tourism rather than just the technical features of skiing [25] - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a rich tourism ecosystem that includes various activities beyond skiing, such as hot springs and local culinary experiences [24][25]