Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.16%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are low inventory and cost support from strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was running at a high level with a daily increase of 0.09%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals are weakly stable with a slight increase in inventory. However, the expected policy benefits are fermenting, and combined with strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation. Be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.26%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the expected policy benefits have improved market sentiment, driving the iron ore price back to a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth, and the growth rates were rising [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, net cash injection was 363.3 billion yuan. The balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of June was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [7]. - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In June, China imported 105.948 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 7.817 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%; from January to June, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,190, and 3,292 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 3 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 2 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with an increase of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 with an increase of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,070 with a decrease of 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 749 with a decrease of 1, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 702 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.75 with an increase of 0.37, and from Brazil was 19.33 with an increase of 0.92. The SGX swap (current month) was 97.80 with an increase of 0.20, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.30 with a decrease of 0.25 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,138, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The highest price was 3,143, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 1,164,609 with a decrease of 489,936, and the open interest was 2,122,341 with a decrease of 78,184 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The highest price was 3,281, the lowest price was 3,256, the trading volume was 454,659 with a decrease of 155,211, and the open interest was 1,580,291 with a decrease of 19,457 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 766.5, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The highest price was 769.5, the lowest price was 763.0, the trading volume was 239,244 with a decrease of 121,405, and the open interest was 664,821 with an increase of 2,959 [11]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of rebar decreased by 44,200 tons week - on - week due to steel mill conversion, but the supply is still at a relatively high level this year, and the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand for rebar is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 33,700 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume significantly shrinking. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week due to steel mill adjustment, but the supply is still at a high level this year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil is less resilient, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 18,600 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency trading volume also shrinking. The price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation, but be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand have weakened. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills has continued to decline, and the arrival of ore at ports has increased significantly week - on - week, but the shipment of miners has continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].

八一钢铁（600581）公告，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-6.5亿元到-7亿 元，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-6.6亿元到-7.1亿元。 公司业绩预亏主要原因是钢铁行业整体面临"供需双弱"的局面，市场启动缓慢，市场需求低于预期，叠 加钢材价格低位运行，产能未完全发挥规模效益，购销价差同比下降，进而压缩企业利润空间。 ...

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Although the steel mill production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore has decreased but remains at a high level within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills provides strong support for the ore price. The port arrivals have increased month - on - month, but after the end - of - fiscal - year shipment rush, the shipments of miners continue to decrease, the overseas ore supply contracts, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable. The supply side is relatively favorable. The ore demand has certain resilience, and with the optimistic sentiment remaining, the ore price is supported to continue the upward - oscillating trend in the short term. However, the fundamentals of the ore have not improved substantially under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upside potential should be cautiously optimistic, being alert to the switch of trading logic to the industrial side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is also oscillating with a slight upward trend. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the current contradictions are not significant, and the ore price is rising in an oscillating manner. There are specific explanations for calculating the rise and fall amplitude and definitions of different trends [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, but ore consumption remains high within the year, and the good profitability of steel mills supports the ore price. Port arrivals increase, but miner shipments decrease, overseas supply contracts, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The demand has resilience, and the short - term ore price is supported to run with a slight upward trend, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and caution is needed for the upside potential [3].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to weaken. Short positions above 14,000 should be held. Attention should be paid to the raw material supply in each production area and the changes in US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex in Shanghai decreased by 0.36%, and the full - latex basis decreased by 216.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup - shaped rubber decreased by 0.63%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.59% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.19% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production in Thailand increased by 157.52%, the production in Indonesia increased by 3.19%, the production in India increased by 5.07%, and the production in China increased significantly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased, the domestic tire production decreased slightly, the tire export volume increased by 7.72%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 13.35% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.40%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7.67%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The log market is expected to enter a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2509 log contract closed at 785.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of major deliverable standards remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: The monthly port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships decreased by 7.94% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.23 million cubic meters, a decrease of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand increased by 0.12 million cubic meters. As of July 4, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.69 million cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price is rising. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, the oversupply situation may intensify [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained mostly unchanged, and the basis decreased [4]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 350.00%, the 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, the production in Xinjiang increased by 1.90%, the production in Yunnan increased by 146.26%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 73.22%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 13.75%, and the production of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The export volume of industrial silicon in May decreased by 8.03% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 13.19%, the social inventory increased by 1.85%, the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.98%, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.53% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The polysilicon futures price has risen, but the fundamentals remain weak. Although the policy expectation drives the price up, the downstream demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the terminal demand and absorption [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 8.33%, the average price of N - type granular silicon increased by 7.35%, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 219.42% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The PS2506 contract increased by 5.12%. Some inter - monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 1.69%, the monthly production in June increased by 5.10%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed in May, and the silicon wafer production decreased in the week and increased slightly in June [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The soda ash market is in an oversupply situation, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and observation is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 glass contracts increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.11% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices in North, East, Central, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 soda ash contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 basis decreased by 8.77% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.08%, the weekly production decreased by 1.07%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate changed, with the completion area and sales area showing improvement [6].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a downturn due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices falling by 2.03% to 263,520 yuan/ton [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with smelter operating rates at low levels, and downstream demand entering a seasonal lull, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises and a sluggish spot market [1] - Domestic social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on tin prices, while the operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 53.97% [1] Group 2 - Downstream demand is weak, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with a decline in orders and production rates in East China and South China [2] - The high tin prices are suppressing downstream purchasing, with companies primarily maintaining just-in-time procurement [2] - Despite the weak demand, there is no significant pressure on the supply side, as tin ore supply shortages persist and smelter production is declining, leading to a potential high-level fluctuation in tin prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, with economic data in May slightly falling short of expectations and PMI data in June showing a slight improvement. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices may have fully reflected various negative factors. The iron ore market has a relatively high supply of global shipments, and the decline in port inventory has slowed down, putting pressure on futures prices. [2][5] - Technically, the steel futures price maintains a slightly stronger oscillating trend, with strong resistance expected near the 60 - day moving average. The iron ore futures price is in a large - range oscillating pattern, with a long - term downward trend and short - term weak oscillation. [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Environment**: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year has intensified. From January to June, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline was larger than last month. [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the production of thread steel increased, factory inventory rebounded, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory decreased. Apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price stabilizes during a correction, and do not chase the rise. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 1.19% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The main basis of thread steel was 117 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the main basis of hot - rolled coil was 64 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 217.84 tons, up 2.67% from last week; the social inventory of thread steel was 363.4 tons, down 1.45% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory has slowed down, and the proportion of trading ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on futures prices. [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Short - term long positions can be taken after the price correction, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 708.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.98% from the previous day and up 0.78% from last week. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures was 24 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day. [5] - **Supply and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1730.6 tons, down 8.14% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 tons, down 9.52% from last week. Port inventory totaled 13930.23 tons, up 0.26% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - On July 1, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14465.77 tons, a decrease of 28.74 tons from last Monday. Except for the southern and river - side regions, the inventory of imported iron ore at ports in other regions decreased compared with last Monday. [8] - Satellite data showed that from June 23 to June 29, 2024, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1238.4 tons, a decrease of 18.8 tons from the previous period, and the inventory was at a relatively low level since the second quarter. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the overall economic data in May was slightly below expectations. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price may have fully reflected the negative factors. The futures price of steel products maintains a narrow - range shock, and there may be a second bottom - probing in the short term [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, putting pressure on the futures price. The long - term trend of the futures price is downward, and it is weak in the short - term shock [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Environment**: The central bank's suggestion to strengthen monetary policy regulation has strengthened the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but it has little impact on the market. The real - estate market is still bottom - building, with the total sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year, and the decline has widened compared with last month. The economic data in May was slightly below expectations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory rebounded, the social inventory continued to decline, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased slightly month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will weaken further, and inventory will rise slightly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a shock mindset. Short - term long positions can be taken after the callback stabilizes, and do not chase the rise [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 2997 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3123 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week. Other data such as basis, spread, and various prices are also provided in detail [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills last week exceeded 2.423 million tons, but it is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline rate is slowing down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is high, putting pressure on the futures price [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - term long positions can be taken after the callback, and do not chase the rise or kill the fall [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 716.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.92% from last week. Data on overseas shipments, sea freight, inventory, and various prices are also provided [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In June, the PMI of the steel industry was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, and it is expected that in July, the demand will be under pressure and the steel price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot - rolled coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [7]. - From January to May 2025, China's steel exports are still at a high level, and the future trend is uncertain. The steel billet exports have increased too fast year - on - year, and the annualized calculation may exceed 10 million tons [7]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.997 million tons month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.491 million tons month - on - month [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi will be shut down for maintenance from June 28 to July 12, with an estimated impact on the total raw coal output of 375,000 tons [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月27日08时22分 报告导读： 本周原油价格大幅走低，对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数 据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目 前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回落，在价格下跌 时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，最近几日的下跌，也有可能是二次探底结束，后市大概率延续震荡 操作建议： 维持观望，回调企稳后可做多，不可追涨 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | ...