焦煤焦炭周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-01-09 目录 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | PART 01 1. | 1月7日下午，重点焦化企业代表召开专题市场分析会。深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走势：焦化企业均处于深度亏 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 损状态，限产幅度保持在15-35%。与会焦化企业达成以下共识：各企业继续主动限产、减产，继续缓解供应压力。减少或停 | | | | 止采购高价煤炭，优化煤炭库存结构，有效控制成本。主动与钢厂沟通，稳定价格，对于再提降价的，坚决停止发货。 | | | 2. | 陕蒙重点电煤矿山调研结果显示，目前陕蒙矿山均未收到与产能核减相关的正式文件及官方通知，市场消息尚未对煤矿生产 | | 市场焦点 | | 销售环节产生实质性扰动。 | | | 3. | 据百年建筑调研，截至1月6日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.53%，周环比下降0.37个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位 | | | | 率为60.59%，周环比下降0.41个百 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the steel market, the supply - demand situation is weak during the consumption off - season. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the off - season. Although macro - level confidence is enhanced, market supervision actions have an impact on market sentiment. For the iron ore market, demand may decline seasonally, supply remains high, and the rising price of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, threaded steel production increased, overall inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased overall, inventory increased, and production increased slightly. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the consumption off - season. Winter storage is still some time away [2]. - **Market Sentiment**: Macro - level confidence has been enhanced, with the stock market rising strongly and positive policy expectations boosting confidence. However, the market supervision action has affected market sentiment [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day and up 46 yuan or 1.47% from the previous week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227.43 million tons, up 0.85 million tons or 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased. The market is still in the off - season, and molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The restocking demand before the Spring Festival will come later this year. On the supply side, global shipments remain high, and the rising port inventory suppresses futures prices. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract is strongly supported by the 10 - day moving average, and a mid - term upward trend is emerging [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 15.0 yuan or 1.81% from the previous day and up 23.5 yuan or 2.98% from the previous week. The overseas iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 1698.5 million tons, down 207.0 million tons or 10.86% from the previous week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of January 8, threaded steel production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 290.18 million tons, an increase of 7.52 million tons or 2.66% from the previous week. The apparent demand for threaded steel was 174.96 million tons, a decrease of 25.48 million tons or 12.71% from the previous week [7]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37% from the previous week and an increase of 27.04% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [7].

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 需求端：淡季效应深化，冬储谨慎，截至 1 月 8 日当周，表观消费 量周环比下降 25.48 万吨至 174.96 万吨，年同比下降 15.09 万吨，北方地 方施工停滞，南方工期收尾，表需连续三周下降，后续关注冬储需求启动。 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 40418 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 1350602 手。全天震荡回落后尾盘企稳回升，均线来看站 上 5 日，20 日均线，最低 3156，最高 3198，收于 3168 元/吨，上涨 14 元/吨， 涨幅 0.44%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3310 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 142 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 库存端：库存开始增库，截止 1 月 8 日当周，总库存周环比上升 16.08 万吨至 438.11 万吨，连续 9 周去化之后开始累库，其中社会库存 290.18 万 吨，周环比上升 7.52 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report of the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1] Group 2: Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil Core Viewpoint - In the consumption off-season, supply and demand are both weak, winter storage is yet to come, macro confidence is strengthening, the stock market is breaking through strongly, and the sharp rise of coking coal and coke boosts confidence, so the upward space of futures prices is greater than the downward space [2] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading. For those with no positions, it is not recommended to chase the rise. Enter the market to buy on pullbacks [2] Data Summary - **Price**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,187 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from the previous day and 2.08% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3,332 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day and 1.90% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills is 188.22 tons, up 2.08% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 304.51 tons, up 3.74% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties is 850.78 tons, down 2.50% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 282.66 tons, down 3.92% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 288.64 tons, down 2.72% from last week [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties is 841.02 tons, up 0.89% from last week; the rebar apparent demand is 200.44 tons, down 1.11% from last week; the hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 310.77 tons, up 1.21% from last week [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Core Viewpoint - Although the market is in the consumption off - season, iron ore prices are supported by the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke, and the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10 - day moving average, with a mid - line level upward trend unfolding [4] Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions and conduct mid - line trading [4] Data Summary - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 828 yuan/dry ton, up 3.37% from the previous day and 4.88% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 109.05 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.42% from the previous day and 4.18% from last week [5] - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1,698.5 tons, down 10.86% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 698.5 tons, down 14.46% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 15,970.89 tons, up 0.71% from last week; the port trade ore inventory is 10,833.52 tons, up 0.48% from last week; the total inventory of imported sinter powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1,261.72 tons, up 4.60% from last week [5] Group 4: Industry News - Key coking enterprises agreed to continue to actively limit and reduce production, reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal, optimize the coal inventory structure, communicate with steel mills to stabilize prices, and stop shipments if steel mills ask for price cuts again [7] - According to data, the national building material production is 445.32 tons, down 4.96 tons from last week; the social inventory is 343.99 tons, down 6.06 tons from last week; the apparent demand is 429.93 tons, down 37.54 tons from last week [7] - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises is 1,414 tons, down 11.7% from the previous ten - day period, up 14.3% from the beginning of the year, down 1.0% from the same ten - day period of last month, up 14.3% from the same ten - day period of last year, and up 14.4% from the same ten - day period of the year before last [7] - The planned rebar production in January is 731.22 tons, an increase of 25.98 tons or 3.68% from the actual production in December [8] - Mongolia has revoked the special mining licenses of 4 companies, which will not affect Mongolia's coal exports to China [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term [2][4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected impact on the total output of construction steel of 741,000 tons [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center [4] - The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong performance. Macroscopically, Fed officials had different statements, and the federal funds rate futures market still believes that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at the next meeting from January 27th to 28th is about 82% [3] - As of January 6, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.65 per ton, a decrease of $0.41 per ton from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in the intended transaction price of both buyers and sellers compared with the previous period [4] - The average CIF price of SMM Guinea bauxite was reported at $65 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton from the previous trading day [4] - In the domestic bauxite market, the tight supply in the north and the continuous weakening of alumina prices are in a game. Currently, alumina plants have a low willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium, and the domestic bauxite price is expected to have some downward space [4] - In the imported bauxite market, there are still differences in the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers recently. The long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas also provides support for the long - term supply [4] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% compared with the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [4] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have started to accumulate, breaking through the two integer thresholds of 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The cumulative inventory increase at the end of December compared with the inventory on December 18 was close to 15% [4] - The continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots is mainly due to the superposition of four factors: "increased arrival of supply, weak digestion on the demand side, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" [4] - Driven by the boost of macro - sentiment and the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the price is strong at a high level. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival. Be vigilant against the high - price risk and pay attention to the continuity of macro - enthusiasm and downstream feedback [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session. The market sentiment is bullish as most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar prices closed down while hot-rolled coil prices closed up, and both rose during the night session [1] Important News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [1] - Henan aims to start construction on about 1,500 new projects in the first quarter of 2026 [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, global shipyards received a total of 31 + 4 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 24 + 4 orders, South Korean shipyards receiving 1 order, and Finnish and American shipyards also receiving relevant orders [1] - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The conference emphasized the need to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts. Various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be flexibly and efficiently used to maintain ample liquidity [1] Market Logic - Most commodities rose during the night session, and rebar and hot-rolled coil prices soared, with bullish market sentiment. Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the top five steel products both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The resistance level for the main rebar contract is 3,200, and the support level is 3,030. The market will gradually enter the winter storage period, and there will be an increase in demand. The futures market has started to price in the winter storage logic in advance, leading to a price rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage, which is estimated to be limited [1] Trading Strategy - Try to establish long positions and set stop-loss levels. Hold existing long positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off-season of consumption, supply and demand are both weak, and winter storage is yet to come. With enhanced macro confidence and a strong stock market boosting market sentiment, futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading, and those with empty positions should avoid chasing up or selling down, instead adopting a volatile trading approach [3]. - For the iron ore sector, although the overall output of the five major steel products increased last week and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month, the market is still in the off-season, and molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is at a high level, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. However, technically, the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10-day moving average, and a medium-term upward trend is unfolding. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar and hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total output of the five major varieties rose month-on-month. Overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's continued to rise. Due to a significant drop in steel mill margins and the off-season, steel production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal and coke futures prices has raised cost support for the market [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also changed. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Production and Operation**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, and the average daily molten iron output was 227.43 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.1%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased, while the capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.50% to 850.78 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 1.05% to 381.37 million tons. Rebar and hot-rolled coil social inventories decreased, while hot-rolled coil steel mill inventory increased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 0.89% to 841.02 million tons. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's increased [3]. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month. However, in the off-season, molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices, and the pre-holiday restocking demand will come later this year [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [5]. - **Price and Spread**: Iron ore spot and futures prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads of iron ore futures also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was -15 yuan/dry ton, up 25.5 yuan from the previous value [6]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased. The arrival volume at the six northern ports increased by 13.70% to 1512.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.71% to 15970.89 million tons [6].

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 周报 钢材：基本面矛盾有限，关注冬储 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周市场震荡运行,在宏观消息炒作下，价格低位稍显改善，但实际需求差，成 交情况表现一般。目前钢厂减产加之库存压力不大，推涨意愿强烈，短期供需基本面矛盾不大，但受制于信 心不足，价格上行承压。 展望：近期螺纹钢基本面延续去库，基本面矛盾并不突出。但随着淡季逐步深入，需求预期仍显承压， 基本面亮点有限。同时政策端仍有扰动，冬储补库预期尚未兑现。预计盘面价格低位震荡运行。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.43 | 226.58 | 0.85 | 0.38% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 139.37 | 140.06 | -0.69 | -0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly. The fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, with a cumulative decline of 200 - 220 yuan/ton in four rounds. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Affected by heavy pollution weather, some coking enterprises further limited production, and coal - coke prices were still in a weak bottom - seeking stage. As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity will gradually increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly this week. The fourth - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, and the cumulative decline in four rounds was 200 - 220 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Some coking enterprises further limited production due to heavy pollution weather, and coal - coke prices were in a weak bottom - seeking stage [2]. - Outlook: As the year - end approaches, winter storage intensity will increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 2156.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.13 million tons (0.47%); the total coke inventory was 915.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04 million tons (0.33%) [4]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 227.43 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons (0.38%) [4]. - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (- 22.22%) [4]. Market Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke main contracts, the average price summary of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal and coke, the daily output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [6][8][11][14][17][19][23][25][27]. All data sources are from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [7].