临近年底，供给端的变化更受市场关注，工信部此前发布的《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026 年）》提出：继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实年度 产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡。因此，年底产量压减仍是市场关注焦点。 目前市场已经进入12月，市场也比较关注冬储，今年钢厂出台冬储政策较往年晚，一方面是春节比去年 晚，另一方面今年钢贸 "中间蓄水池" 功能继续下降，冬储意愿不强。冬储规模极大可能低于去年。当 下市场行情不明朗，明年仍有较大不确定性，减少冬储规模也是众多商家选择。更多商家采取 "边走边 看，到春季再决定" 的策略。 行情展望 从目前来看，行情走势并不弱，现货稳定性同样较高。在10月份螺纹、热卷表需回暖之后，供给侧减量 的预期再推动行情涨至11月份以来新高，目前来看，基本面的利多驱动基本告一段落，市场情绪更倾向 于宏观，对12月份中央经济工作会议、地产政策以及美联储降息仍有预期，而且螺纹、热卷仍处在估值 向上修复通道当中，不排除短期内还有小幅上涨的机会。 从盘面来看，黑色商品多数收涨，主力合约除了铁矿石微跌之外，焦煤止跌快速拉升，最终收涨超 1.1%，焦炭保持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue the two - way fluctuation pattern of "weak US dollar and stable RMB", with the core fluctuation range between 7.05 - 7.10. The RMB appreciation rhythm will be relatively mild, and the two - way fluctuation characteristics will be more obvious. Some institutions predict that the US dollar - RMB exchange rate may gradually approach 7.025 by the end of December [4]. - The short - term profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises is under pressure and is likely to maintain a weak shock pattern. In the medium - and long - term, the profitability of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a gradual repair channel in 2025 [2]. - Stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the balance between long and short forces [6]. - For treasury bonds, medium - term long positions can be continued to hold, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. - The container shipping European line futures price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game between the expectation of resuming navigation and the price - holding actions of shipping companies [8]. - For precious metals, in the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise, and in the short - term, the price elasticity is increased [16]. - For base metals such as copper and aluminum, the prices are affected by factors like the increase in LME copper cancelled warrants, the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, and the improvement of macro - sentiment, showing different trends [17][19]. - For black commodities, the prices of steel products may gradually increase in shock, and iron ore prices will maintain a high - level shock pattern [23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term; other products have different trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [33][35]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different varieties such as pigs, oilseeds, and oils are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather, showing different trends [77][78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US ADP data unexpectedly declined, with employment decreasing by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI expansion rate reached the fastest in nine months, with the price index at a seven - month low and the employment index at a six - month high. The new Fed Chairman Hasset is likely to be appointed, and bond investors have warned the US Treasury [1][5]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0661, up 51 points. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, the lowest since March 2023. The short - term RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to be in a two - way fluctuation pattern [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 76.532 billion yuan. The US ADP data made investors almost certain that the Fed would cut interest rates next week, but the impact on the market was limited. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: T, TF, TS fluctuated and closed up, while TL continued to decline. The open - market reverse repurchase was 7.93 billion, with a net withdrawal of 13.4 billion. The money market was loose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, and medium - term long positions can be continued to hold [6][7]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line continued to fluctuate. The market focused on the game between the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and the price - holding actions of shipping companies in late December. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [8][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium were mainly driven by investment attributes, showing a shock - upward trend. The Fed's December interest rate cut probability was about 89%. Long - term platinum ETFs increased, while palladium ETFs decreased [13]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were in a shock pattern. The US ADP data supported the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise [14][16]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose sharply due to the large increase in LME copper cancelled warrants and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. The short - term copper price is expected to remain high [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai aluminum was shock - upward, mainly driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be shock - upward [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a shock - upward trend. The ADP data strengthened the interest rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc may shrink, and the demand is in the off - season [20]. - **Tin**: The tin price rose driven by funds. The short - term supply is tight, and the interest rate cut expectation is strong. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [20][21]. - **Lead**: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply of the lead smelting end decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [21][22]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were shock - upward. The overseas macro - sentiment was warming up, and the market expected policy support. However, the iron ore valuation was high, and there was a risk of decline [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose first and then fell. The short - term fundamentals improved, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [26][27]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal price was under pressure, and the coke price may face a decline. The 01 contract of coking coal can hold short positions, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - term allocation [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were shock - downward. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [31][32]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The oil price was in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [33][35]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply increased slightly, and the demand changed little [36][37]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. The aromatics blending oil speculation has cooled down, and the PTA processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent [38][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG valuation is under pressure. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The 12 - month inventory accumulation expectation is revised to a tight balance [43][46]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract of methanol maintains a weak expectation. The main factors affecting it include the slow unloading in ports and the situation of Iranian device shutdown [47][48]. - **PP**: The PP price has a marginal improvement expectation. The supply may decrease, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the basis change [49][50]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and the basis change [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the price of Dar Blend stabilizes [55][56]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is in a weak shock pattern. The winter storage may be insufficient in quantity, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy [56][58]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and the synthetic rubber price may decline. The difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is expected to expand [62][63]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The high supply is under pressure, but the export policy provides support [64][65]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: The soda ash price is mainly cost - determined, and the glass price is affected by cold - repair expectations. The caustic soda price is expected to be weak [66][68]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is expected to continue to rise, and the offset paper price is expected to be shock - upward [69][70]. - **Log**: The log price is in a low - level shock pattern, and the supply and demand are not improved [71][72]. - **Propylene**: The propylene market remains loose, and the price is in a shock pattern [74][75]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure of pigs is still high, and the long - term supply may be affected by policies [77]. - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is mainly concerned with the supply and Chinese procurement. The domestic soybean meal lacks a single - side driver, and the rapeseed meal has a supply recovery expectation [78][79]. - **Oils**: The oil price is in a shock pattern. The supply pressure of palm oil and soybean oil exists, and the supply of rapeseed oil may be alleviated [80]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the downstream demand. Pay attention to whether it can break through the hedging pressure level [81]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is in a weak state, affected by factors such as production in India and Brazil [82][84]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg production capacity is still excessive, and the short - term price may rebound [85]. - **Apples**: The apple price maintains a strong pattern, and the inventory is increasing [86]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is in a low - level shock pattern. Pay attention to the new jujube production determination [87][88].

以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪提振 关注淡季需求 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 2 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上受美国经济数据疲软以及美联储官员做出 鸽派发言的影响，交易员认为 12 月降息的概率提高至 87%。美国制造业 11 月连 续第九个月萎缩，工厂面临订单下滑和原材料价格上涨的双重压力，进口关税的 拖累持续存在。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，因其在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，且今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] -铝土矿预计价格维持弱势震荡，虽北方地区国产矿供应偏紧，但铝土矿绝对库存仍处高位，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿偏低[4] -铝价预计短期高位震荡，宏观多空情绪交织，基本面对海外供应收紧有预期，国内淡季来临消费延后兑现，库存走势反复且上方有压力[5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材方面 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右[3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝土矿方面 -北方地区国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，因接受环保督察开采未恢复，但铝土矿绝对库存高位，供应整体宽松，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿低[4] 铝价方面 -本周国内铝加工龙头企业周度开工率环比增0.3%至62.3%，铝型材等板块开工有好转[4] -周度铝水比例连续三周回落，铝锭供应压力略增，但铝价高位回落使近一周国内铝锭和铝棒出库量环比分别增20%和13%，带动铝锭库存降至60万吨以下[4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下跌1.7万吨，较上周四下跌2.5万吨[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Overall Market - Overseas, US employment data shows significant differentiation. The Fed's 12 - month rate - cut expectation is strengthened, and the focus is on November employment data and the Fed chair selection process. Domestically, the economic fundamentals cool marginally, but policy remains firm, and the market expects more policies. [2] - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to "oscillate and build a bottom, with a slowly declining central value". RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, but it's hard to have a unilateral rapid appreciation in the short - term. [4] Commodities - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand will push up prices. Short - term, focus on the December Fed rate - cut expectation and 60 - day moving average. [12] - Copper prices are expected to be strong, with the futures price possibly breaking through 87,000. [13][14] - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. [15] - Zinc is expected to oscillate. [16] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are in a wait - and - see state. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger. [17][18] - Tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and it's recommended to enter the market on dips. [18] - Lithium carbonate may have a phased correction, and it's advisable to enter on dips after the correction. [20] - Industrial silicon will oscillate in the short - term and has long - term value for bottom - fishing. Polysilicon should pay attention to the position risk. [21][22] - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar may move between 2,900 - 3,200, and hot - rolled coils between 3,100 - 3,400. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] - Coking coal's 01 contract may be under pressure, while the 05 contract has long - term long - allocation potential. Coke's short - selling space is limited. [28][29] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly. [33] - PX - PTA may correct, and it's advisable to go long after the correction. [33][34][35] - MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. [38] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. [40] - PE is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a put - option strategy can be considered. [42] - Pure benzene and styrene are affected by export and maintenance news. Pay attention to actual transactions and maintenance plans. [43] - Fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. Consider widening the high - low sulfur spread. [44][45][46] - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] - Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] - Soda ash is expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [51] - Glass's 01 contract will follow the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - Caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high - level supply pressure. [54] - Logs' 01 contract is weak in reality, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] - Propylene's supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: China promotes new business forms and AI application, urges a solution for Anshi Semiconductor, and Vanke discusses bond extension. US jobless claims fall, durable goods orders rise, and the Fed's Beige Book shows limited economic change. The UK announces a tax - increase plan, and there are developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthened. Domestically, economic fundamentals cool, but policy is firm. [2] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthens against the USD. Policies are introduced to boost consumption, and the New Zealand central bank cuts rates. The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD in the long - term but may slow down in the short - term. [3][4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices fall. Rumors of new public - fund fee regulations may cause selling pressure, but policies may hedge it. It's advisable to go long on dips. [5] - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Futures prices fall due to the Red Sea resumption expectation and weak spot prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. It's advisable to hold mid - term long positions and go long on dips. [5][6][7] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Prices rise. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and delivery pressure affect prices. Platinum and palladium futures are listed. [9] - **Rate - cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The Fed's rate - cut probability is high. Gold ETF holdings increase, while silver, platinum, and palladium ETF holdings change differently. Inventories of gold and silver change. [10] - **This Week's Focus**: US Thanksgiving affects CME precious - metal trading hours. [11] - **View**: In the medium - to - long - term, prices will rise. Short - term, focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and technical indicators. [12] Copper - **Market Review**: Copper prices rise. The basis and the Shanghai - London ratio change. [13] - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventories change, and the 2026 copper concentrate benchmark price may decline. US jobless claims data is released. [13][14] - **View and Strategy**: Spot trading has a price - pressing mentality, but futures have an upward expectation. It's advisable to pay attention to support and pressure levels and go long on dips for downstream enterprises. [14] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices change. [14] - **Core View**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina weakly, and cast aluminum alloy at a high level. [15] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices oscillate, and the night - session opens higher. [16] - **Core Logic**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is high, and the dollar is weak. The smelting end has a strong demand for ore, and domestic inventories are decreasing while LME inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate. [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rise. [17] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices, premiums, and inventories are reported. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel - iron prices fall, and stainless steel has export benefits but weak demand. [18] Tin - **Market Review**: Tin prices oscillate, and the night - session price rises due to long - position funds. [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is weaker than demand due to production resumption issues. It's recommended to enter on dips. [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and trading volume and open interest increase. [19] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and downstream materials change. [19] - **View**: In December, the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price may correct at 100,000 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to go long on dips. [20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Futures prices change, and trading volume and open interest change. [20] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of industrial silicon and photovoltaic products change. [21] - **View**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks. [21][22] Lead - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillate, and the night - session price is pressured. [22][23] - **Core Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Review**: Prices fall slightly. Iron ore affects the rise of finished - product prices. [25] - **Core Logic**: Steel supply and demand both increase, and inventories decline slowly. Iron ore prices oscillate. Finished - product prices are expected to oscillate within a range. [25] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Prices are at a high - level oscillation. [24] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and electric - furnace steel mills' capacity utilization and scrap consumption change. [26] - **View**: Prices are strong in the short - term, affected by coking coal. It's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices are at the bottom and oscillate widely. [27] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and coking coal auction prices fall. [27][28] - **Core Logic**: Coking coal supply is marginally loose, and demand is weak. Coke has priced in multiple rounds of price cuts. It's advisable to go long on coking coal's 05 contract on dips and avoid short - selling coke blindly. [28][29] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Review**: Prices fall. [29] - **Core Logic**: Steel mills' profitability declines, iron - water production decreases, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese face high - inventory and weak - demand issues. It's expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals LPG - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices change. [32] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand change slightly, and inventories increase. [32] - **View**: The RMB - denominated LPG is relatively strong, and the market may oscillate strongly. [33] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is expected to be high, and PTA has many shutdowns. Polyester demand is expected to be high. PX benefits are good, and PTA processing fees are low. [33][34][35] - **View**: The PX - PTA market is affected by oil - blending speculation. It's advisable to go long on dips after the correction. [35] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory and Devices**: Port inventory is stable, and some devices restart or shut down. [35][36] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand is expected to be high. Inventories may decline to a tight balance. [36][37] - **View**: Demand is stable, but supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. It's advisable to sell call options on rebounds. [38] PP - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [38] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and demand growth slows after the "Double 11" festival. Inventories decline. [39] - **View**: PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to weak demand and cost support. [40] PE - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [41] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand weakens as the agricultural - film season ends. Inventories decline. [41][42] - **View**: PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and is expected to oscillate at a low level. It's advisable to use a put - option strategy. [42] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise. [42] - **Inventory and View**: Pure - benzene and styrene inventories change. The market is affected by export and maintenance news. [42][43] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: Futures prices are reported. [43] - **Industry Performance**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil change in November, and inventories change. [43][44][45] - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply increases, and demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply may be affected by refinery issues, and demand is relatively stable. High - sulfur cracking is expected to fall, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. [44][45][46] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices change. [47] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, demand increases slightly, and inventories decline. [47][48] - **View**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Macro and Inventory Information**: China conducts MLF operations, and US economic data is released. Rubber inventories change, and Thailand's floods affect production. [48][49] - **Core View**: Rubber supply tightens, and demand weakens. It's expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Inventory decreases, and it's expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [50][51] - **Glass**: The 01 contract follows the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices change locally, and supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high - level supply pressure. [54] Logs - **Market and Valuation**: Futures prices change, and spot prices and inventory costs are reported. [54][55] - **Core Contradiction**: The 01 contract is weak in reality, and the 03 contract has a weak peak - season expectation. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] Propylene - **Market Dynamics**: Futures prices fall, and the PP - PL spread compresses. [57] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand increases. Other downstream industries have low profit levels. [57][58] - **View**: Supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Futures prices rise, and spot prices change. The near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59]

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [4] 铝锭 -市场关注海外铝厂减产消息，有供应收紧预期，部分需求后移，氧化铝行业利润收缩，北方环保监察，新疆交割库累库加剧基本面压力 [3][4] -上周铝加工行业淡季特征深化，各板块结构性分化，原生铝合金开工率稳定，铝线缆开工率回升，多数板块面临下行压力 [4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下降1.7万吨，较上周四下降2.5万吨 [4] -宏观多空情绪交织，国内淡季下游走弱库存走势反复，预计价格区间震荡，关注库消走势和矿端情况 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

Overall Investment Ratings No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to show a pattern of "oscillating to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value." Domestic pro - growth policies are entering the implementation phase at the end of the year, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement demand is rising, increasing the intrinsic appreciation power of the RMB. However, short - term one - sided rapid appreciation is unlikely. The upside potential of the US dollar is weaker than in the previous cycle [2]. - For various commodities: - Precious metals: In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the Fed's December interest rate cut expectations and the 60 - day moving average. Gold resistance is at 4250, support at 4000, and strong support at 3900. Silver resistance is at 52.5, support at 49, and strong support at 47 [12]. - Copper: The copper market lacks a driving force and is expected to remain volatile. The price faces resistance at 86500 - 86600 and is accepted around 86000 [14]. - Aluminum industry chain: For electrolytic aluminum, short - term macro factors are positive, and focus on the probability of interest rate cuts. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum prices, and pay attention to the price difference between alloy and aluminum [16]. - Zinc: It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They had a short - term correction. Be cautious about Indonesian policy stimuli. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger than the upside, and pay attention to long - term export expectations for stainless steel [18][19]. - Tin: It is affected by news and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - Lead: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited [20]. - Steel products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Iron ore is expected to be relatively strong. Coking coal and coke: The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal is strengthening. Ferroalloys are expected to be weak with oscillations [21][22][27]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern. LPG is expected to oscillate. PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation fades, and there are support levels for operation. MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. Methanol's 01 contract has limited upside. PP's downside space is limited. PE is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak with oscillations. Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening. Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to winter storage policies. Rubber and 20 - grade rubber are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Urea is expected to continue to oscillate. For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, supply disturbances are increasing [31][35][38][41][44][45][46][49][52]. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, US employment data is divided, and Fed officials' statements increase the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but policy is firm, and the market expects more policies. The release of the US Q3 GDP forecast is postponed, and the PCE price index will be released on December 5 [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1056, up 47 points, and the mid - price was 7.0847, up 28 points. The USD/CNY spot rate may "oscillate to form a bottom with a slowly declining central value" [1][2]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was mixed. The decline in trading volume was 2378.87 billion yuan. External disturbances are both positive and negative, and the stock index is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose slightly, and the capital was loose. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and the mid - term has room for an increase. It is recommended to hold mid - term long positions [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The SCFIS was 1639.37, up 20%. The futures market was slightly down. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term. Traders can choose different strategies according to their types [5][6][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Monday, precious metal prices rose due to an over - 80% expectation of a December interest rate cut. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to rise, and short - term attention should be paid to the interest rate cut expectation and technical indicators [10][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price was mixed in different markets. The market lacks a driving force and is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has support at the bottom [15][16]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuated in a narrow range. The reduction in smelting TC in November may lead to production cuts, and the inventory is changing [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and long - term export expectations [17][18][19]. - **Tin**: It was affected by news from the Congo and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [20]. - **Lead**: There is still short - selling pressure, but the downside space is limited due to raw material shortages and cost support [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand and supply of steel products increased this week, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upside. They are expected to oscillate in a range [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: It is relatively strong. The price is affected by coking coal and its own fundamentals. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before short - selling [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's 1 - 5 spread is strengthening. The supply of coking coal is marginally loose, and the demand is weak in the short - term, but it has support in the mid - term [24][26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations due to high inventory and weak demand, but the supply - side reduction limits the downside space [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It rebounded due to the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut. It is in a "weak recovery, bearish - dominated" pattern, and pay attention to OPEC + production, winter demand, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [30][31]. - **LPG**: It is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the changes in supply, demand, and inventory [31]. - **PX - PTA**: The supply of PX is expected to be high in Q4. PTA's supply and demand have improved marginally. Pay attention to maintenance plans and actual dynamics of blending oil [32][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Consider selling call options on rebounds [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract has limited upside. The port pressure may increase in December, and the inland is relatively strong [37][38]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and the demand growth has slowed down. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [40][41]. - **PE**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [43][44]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak with oscillations. The Asian pure benzene surplus situation may improve, but the domestic fundamentals are still weak [45]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin may decline in the future, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking margin is weakening [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to winter storage policies, and there may be a long - position opportunity for BU2603 [49][50]. - **Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to inventory, demand, and weather factors [52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue to oscillate. High supply is under pressure, but export policies and coal prices provide support [53]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Supply disturbances are increasing. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, glass is affected by cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda's demand is affected by downstream industries [53][54][56].

晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝高位运行。宏观上市场目前押注美联储将在下个月再次 降息。周四推迟公布的美国非农就业报告对劳动力市场的描述喜忧参半， 几乎没有改变美联储在 12 月降息的预期，因为决策者们仍在美国政府停摆 带来的经济迷雾中犹豫不决。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观 ...