Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in the discount rate, with expectations for quantitative excess returns to rebound [1]. - The average returns for various enhanced strategies from the beginning of the year show positive trends, with the 1000 enhanced strategy yielding an average return of +36.1% year-to-date [1]. - The report also notes the performance of different indices, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 showing a year-to-date average daily trading volume of 3,424 billion, reflecting a 61.3% increase compared to the beginning of the year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Metrics - The average returns for the 300 enhanced strategy are +1.5% weekly, +6.7% monthly, and +18.6% year-to-date, with excess returns of -1.3%, -2.3%, and +2.7% respectively [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 500 is 4,862 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 94% [3]. Sector Performance - The top three performing sectors this week are electrical equipment (+8.8%), non-ferrous metals (+4.1%), and pharmaceutical biology (+4%) [4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 48%, while the coal sector has decreased by 5.1% [4]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the annualized discount rates for current contracts are +2.2%, +5.8%, and +7.1% for IF, IC, and IM respectively, placing them in the 50.9%, 36.2%, and 36.5% percentile of the past year [4].

成文日期: 20250908 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:菜粕 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) timation 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250908）期货品种菜粕 rm2601 合约高开震荡调整。 较昨日上涨 0.24%，收至 2542 点。全日成交量为 37.14 万手，持 仓量为 39.35 万手。 图 1:菜粕 rm2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 1.2 品种价格 菜粕期货各合约全天均有不同涨跌。品种持仓量 491406 手,较 上一交易日增加 1810 手。 图 2：菜粕期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 合约代码 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 曾低价 | 交收最 | 令结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量(手) | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交额(万元) | 交割结算价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers, and risks of crude oil and macro - economic pullbacks should be guarded against [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,408 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, and (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,456 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase, and (night session) 8,416 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a 1.04% increase, and (night session) 9,737 yuan/ton with a - 2.14% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 51.20 cents/pound with a - 1.41% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 10 to 3 lots, and open interest decreased by 1 to 1,225 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 8 to 110 lots, and open interest decreased by 103 to 2,988 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 42 to 50 lots, and open interest remained unchanged at 5,121 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 60 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,730 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 9,790 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 28 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 274 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 160 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 292 yuan/ton; between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,076 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 118 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 6 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 132 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non - farm payrolls in June were revised down from 14,000 to - 13,000, and in July were revised up from 73,000 to 79,000. After the revision, the total non - farm payrolls in June and July were 21,000 lower than before [2][3] - OPEC+ representatives said that OPEC+ in principle agreed to increase production again in October, with an expected increase of about 137,000 barrels per day, starting to gradually cancel the next layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of production cuts [3] - The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for imported rapeseed from Canada until March 9, 2026 [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Prices and Trading Volume - The prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 have shown different degrees of change from August 6th to September 4th. For example, the BU main contract price decreased from 3529 on August 6th to 3468 on September 4th, a daily change of -82 and an interval change of -3 [4]. - Trading volume increased from 219,521 on August 6th to 396,842 on September 4th, with a daily change of 152,545 and an interval change of 96,736. The open interest decreased from 455,367 on August 6th to 464,569 on September 4th, with a daily change of -28,631 and an interval change of 84,140 [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices of asphalt in different regions also changed. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3750 on August 6th to 3540 on September 4th, with a daily change of -10 and an interval change of 20. The East China market price remained stable at 3700 from August 27th to September 4th [4]. Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of asphalt contracts also showed different trends. For example, the Shandong basis increased from 221 on August 6th to 72 on September 4th, with a daily change of 72 and an interval change of 23. The BU06 - BU09 spread decreased from -142 on August 27th to -125 on September 4th, with a daily change of -44 and an interval change of 17 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from -67 on August 27th to 21 on September 4th, with a daily change of 70 and an interval change of 88. The asphalt Ma Rui profit increased from -128 on August 27th to -49 on September 4th, with a daily change of 64 and an interval change of 79 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 68.6 on August 27th to 67.6 on September 4th, with a daily change of -1.5 and an interval change of -1.0. The Shandong market price of gasoline decreased from 7599 on August 27th to 7531 on September 4th, with a daily change of -22 and an interval change of -68 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. The short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the four major A - share stock indexes had a significant correction. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% to 12118.7 points, the ChiNext Index fell 4.25% to 2776.25 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 6.08% to 1226.98 points. Market turnover was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, commerce and retail (+1.63%), beauty care (+1.19%), and banks (+0.79%) led the gains; communications (-8.48%), electronics (-5.08%), and composites (-4.49%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2295/139/2990 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -39.3 billion, -28.4 billion, 400 million, and 67.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -19 billion, -700 million, -2.8 billion, and +22.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 97.15, 109.05, 23.21, and 10.67 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.27%, -15.65%, -5.11%, and -3.53% respectively. The three - year historical percentiles were 20%, 6%, 19%, and 24% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the yields of bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.362, a decrease of 0 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.566, a decrease of 1.31 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.708, a decrease of 0.96 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.076, a decrease of 1.79 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.032, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the five - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.048, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the ten - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.048, and an IRR of 1.31%; for the thirty - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.276, and an IRR of 0.73% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 212.6 billion yuan and withdrew 416.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices declined, weakening cost support for PTA. PTA supply was sufficient, downstream polyester filament sales were 42.67%, and the market lacked confidence, leading to a decline in PTA prices and a weakening basis [2]. - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly, and the spot market price followed suit with a slight increase, while the basis negotiation continued to strengthen [2]. - OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at Sunday's meeting. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has inhibited the further increase of PX production to some extent. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually returned, and domestic PTA production has increased [2]. - South Korea's naphtha cracking unit plans to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded, and the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially Saudi Arabian plants, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. This has also continuously boosted the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: On September 4, 2025, the INE crude oil price was 481.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 12.20 yuan from the previous day; the PTA - SC was 1160.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.66 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio was 1.3320, an increase of 0.0117; the PTA主力期价 was 4656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.0 yuan; the PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4705 yuan; the spot processing fee was 88.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.4 yuan; the disk processing fee was 134.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.4 yuan; the main basis was (57), a decrease of 6.0; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 29742 [2]. - **MEG**: On September 4, 2025, the MEG主力期价 was 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.0 yuan; the MEG - naphtha was (112.24) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price remained unchanged at 4435 yuan; the main basis was 88, an increase of 4.0 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - On September 4, 2025, the PX start - up rate was 82.59%, unchanged; the PTA start - up rate was 74.26%, unchanged; the MEG start - up rate was 60.68%, a decrease of 1.09%; the polyester load was 88.16%, an increase of 0.17% [2]. Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860 yuan, 7130 yuan, and 8035 yuan respectively on September 4, 2025. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also remained unchanged at 101 yuan, (129) yuan, and 76 yuan respectively. The sales rate of polyester filament was 43%, a decrease of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6575 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 166 yuan, and the sales rate was 39%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - glossy chips remained unchanged at 5795 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of chips remained unchanged at (64) yuan, and the sales rate was 49%, an increase of 3% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance on September 4, 2025, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to stop for maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on September 5, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are - 111.4, - 113.4, - 117.4, - 120.4, - 121.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil on September 4 is 142.49 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt is 0.1382 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on September 4 is - 910 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 75 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 4, LLDPE - PVC is 2354 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 48.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, on September 4, the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.97 [21]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 4 is 93.0 yuan/ton [22]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 4 is 250 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is (67.16) [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 4 is 95 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 46 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are provided. For example, on September 4, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn is 1.80 [42]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 29, 2025, to September 4, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 4 is 15.81 [54]. - **Inter - period**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 9.4 [54].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025, covering fuel oil data from August 29 to September 4, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst strengthened oscillatingly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, and the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. A new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation. The external MF0.5 basis started to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter could be noted [4][10] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 389.06 | 377.63 | -0.64 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.37 | 441.32 | -4.96 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.14 | -7.05 | 0.41 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 654.16 | 665.68 | -7.81 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -197.79 | -224.36 | 2.85 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.15 | 24.02 | -0.39 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 67.31 | 63.69 | -4.32 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.16 | 388.65 | -8.63 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 416.16 | 398.86 | -10.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 485.77 | 468.34 | -16.91 | | Singapore GO M1 | 85.94 | 87.04 | -1.49 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -4.48 | -5.32 | 0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -150.19 | -175.76 | -5.89 | [2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 399.85 | 387.09 | -9.17 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.05 | 474.28 | -11.56 | | 380 Basis | -1.10 | -1.00 | 0.45 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 8.0 | 9.4 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2812 | 2760 | -80 | | FU 05 | 2773 | 2721 | -76 | | FU 09 | 2735 | 2694 | -48 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 39 | -4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 38 | 27 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -77 | -66 | 32 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3479 | 3395 | -97 | | LU 05 | 3435 | 3359 | -89 | | LU 09 | 3312 | 3341 | -100 | | LU 01 - 05 | 44 | 36 | -8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 123 | 18 | 11 | | LU 09 - 01 | -167 | -54 | -3 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of polyolefins has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new capacity and the increase in the overall operating rate of existing devices. The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, resulting in certain pressure on the supply side. The cost - end support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks short - term new orders, with limited upward - driving force [3]. - For trading strategies, a neutral stance is taken for single - side trading; a 01 - 05 reverse spread is recommended for inter - period trading; and going long on the L - P spread is suggested for inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7247 yuan/ton (- 5), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6954 yuan/ton (+ 11). The LL spot price in North China is 7180 yuan/ton (+ 10), in East China is 7170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6830 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL basis in North China is - 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), in East China is - 77 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the PP basis in East China is - 124 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.7% (+ 0.0%), and the PP operating rate is 80.2% (+ 2.0%). The PE oil - based production profit is 107.1 yuan/ton (- 95.7), the PP oil - based production profit is - 452.9 yuan/ton (- 95.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 151.5 yuan/ton (- 125.4) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Not provided with specific content in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 280.1 yuan/ton (- 20.0), the PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.0), and the PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+ 6.2) [2]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 17.5% (+ 2.9%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 49.6% (- 0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 42.3% (+ 0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: Short - term PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip prices follow oil prices, with limited upward drivers. Ethylene glycol has a "strong present, weak future" pattern. Strategies vary by product, such as PX11 and TA being under observation, and attention to support levels [2]. - **Fertilizer Industry**: Urea futures face pressure due to weak demand and high supply. It is advisable to monitor the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [5]. - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol supply is abundant in September, while traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices and inventory digestion [12]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: OPEC + supply news increases concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The oil price is likely to be weak, and a bearish strategy is recommended [15]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In September, the polyolefin market shows a pattern of "decreased supply and increased demand", with controllable inventory pressure. It is suggested to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [22]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: Caustic soda prices may remain firm in the short - term, and PVC is expected to continue weak and volatile [30]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Short - term pure benzene and styrene prices are under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not drop sharply. For EB10, short - term support around 6900 can be monitored [34]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 3, Brent crude oil (November) was at $67.60/barrel, down 2.2%. Most polyester product prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cash flows showed different changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to increase, while demand has limited upward potential. PTA supply - demand prospects have improved, but the implementation of device maintenance is not as expected. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics [2]. Fertilizer Industry - **Prices and Supply - Demand**: On September 3 - 5, most fertilizer product prices were stable, and urea production and inventory data showed small fluctuations. Urea demand is weak, and supply is relatively sufficient [5]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, methanol supply is high, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at $67.39/barrel, down 0.31%. Most oil - related prices and spreads changed slightly, and the crack spread of refined oil increased slightly [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC + supply news intensifies concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is likely to be weak [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, PE supply pressure is limited, and PP shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing". Downstream demand has increased slightly [22]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was stable, and the price of PVC was also stable. Chlor - alkali inventories showed different changes [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply will gradually recover, and demand may increase. PVC supply is expected to increase, while demand remains weak [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at $734/ton, up 0.8%. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, and demand support is weakening. Styrene supply is high in the short - term, but there are expectations of improvement in supply - demand later [34].