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沥青早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 6 on 10/30 with a daily change of 10; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 106 with no daily change; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 126 with a daily change of 20 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread was 15 on 10/30 with a daily change of -2; the 12 - 03 spread was -6 with a daily change of -7; the 01 - 02 spread was -5 with a daily change of -1 [3]. - The BU main contract (01) was 3254 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day [3]. 2. Trading Volume, Open Interest, and Warehouse Receipts - The trading volume on 10/30 was 212,219, a decrease of 21,636 (-9%) compared to the previous day; the open interest was 338,671, a decrease of 1,392; the warehouse receipts were 9,120, a decrease of 800 [3]. 3. Spot Prices - Brent crude oil was $64.9 on 10/30, up $0.5 from the previous day [3]. - Jingbo's spot price was 3,260 on 10/30, down 20 from the previous day; Hongrun's was 3,180, down 10; Zhenjiang warehouse's was 3,360, down 20; Foshan warehouse's remained at 3,380 [3]. 4. Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 251 on 10/30, down 33 from the previous day; the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 693, down 26 [3].
反弹受阻
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 11:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market opened high and closed low, with the spot market being lukewarm. The downstream domestic demand is sluggish, and there is low acceptance of high prices. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of winter storage [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and closed low on October 30, 2025, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1627 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market is tepid, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][2]. - The daily urea production has slightly rebounded recently, with some plants under inspection or shut - down, resulting in little production fluctuation. The cost side is strongly supported by the high coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The demand side shows that the operating load of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the terminal sales are not as expected, and the inventory of finished products in the factory has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1648 yuan/ton, closed at 1627 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.97% and a position of 489700 lots (-3447 lots). On October 30, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long position increased by 2773 lots, and the short position decreased by 731 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot market is not active, and the downstream has low acceptance of high prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on Henan, the basis of the January contract was - 47 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [6]. - Supply: On October 30, 2025, the national daily urea production was 19.04 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 80.45% [7]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 155.43 tons, a decrease of 7.59 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.66%. The pre - sale order days were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.62% [11]. - Downstream: From October 24 to October 31, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average utilization rate of Chinese melamine production capacity was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [13].
股指期货早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The IC2512 has a discount of 90.97 points, and the IM2512 has a discount of 122.72 points, showing a bearish signal [3]. - The market should focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting today. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and Powell hinted that it might be the last rate cut this year. The two markets rose generally yesterday, with the ChiNext leading the way, and market hotspots rotated. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The margin trading balance was 2476.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The IH2512 has a premium of 1.78 points, and the IF2512 has a discount of 15.24 points, showing a neutral signal [3]. - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH main contracts increased, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector rebounded, and the index rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions if there is a sharp intraday rise, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Index Data**: For various futures contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM, detailed information including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms is provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 futures are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [12]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. are presented [15][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is shown [22]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trends of the PEs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [24]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trends of the PBs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [26]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: The historical trend of A - share net fund inflow and the CSI 300 index are shown [28]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trends of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are presented [30]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32]. - **Stock Unlock**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Fund Cost**: The historical trends of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are presented [38]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trends of the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [41][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content is provided other than the title. Other Indicators - **Futures Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield**: The historical trends of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the 10 - year treasury yield, are presented [50]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The historical trend of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate is shown [52]. - **New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Newly Established Scale Changes of Different Types of Funds**: The newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, but no specific content is provided other than the titles [55][57][59].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:苯乙烯港口库存压力持续-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory has slightly declined, but low downstream开工 rates of styrene, CPL, and adipic acid have dragged down demand, leading to a continuously weak port basis. Domestic pure benzene开工 has also decreased, and the impact of previous sanctions on some refinery loads can be resolved by switching crude oil resources [3] - For styrene, despite short - term maintenance, port inventory has not been reduced, and there is still pressure. New device startups such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical have had an impact. Downstream开工 has changed little, but提货 is average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers is still high, so the port inventory pressure of EB persists [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report mentions figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the basis of pure benzene futures contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the spread between consecutive contracts of pure benzene and EB [8][11][16] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Information on production profits and internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene is provided, such as styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, and import profits of pure benzene and styrene [19][22][30] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory,开工 Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 8.50 million tons (- 1.40 million tons), and its开工 rate has declined. Styrene port inventory is still under pressure, with East China port inventory at 193,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and its开工 rate is 69.3% (- 2.6%) [1][3][34] IV. Styrene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 255 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 61.98% (- 0.54%); PS production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 53.80% (+ 0.00%); ABS production profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+ 48 yuan/ton), with an开工 rate of 72.80% (- 0.30%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream开工 and Production Profits - For pure benzene downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1850 yuan/ton (+ 35), with an开工 rate of 88.89% (- 3.52%); phenol - acetone production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0), with an开工 rate of 78.00% (+ 0.00%); aniline production profit is 1050 yuan/ton (+ 224), with an开工 rate of 76.48% (+ 0.75%); adipic acid production profit is - 1165 yuan/ton (- 23), with an开工 rate of 55.80% (- 3.30%) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, go long on the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) [4]
《能源化工》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 02:15
Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis
《金融》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly present various data related to different financial products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **IF**: The current - spot price difference is -15.24, with a change of 7.14 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 45.00% and 29.10% respectively. Different inter - period spreads show various values and changes, e.g., the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -10.80, with a change of 2.00 [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot price difference is 1.78, with a change of 0.60 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 66.30% and 66.90% respectively. Inter - period spreads also have their own values and changes, like the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -0.80, with a change of -1.20 [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot price difference is -90.97, with a change of 19.06 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 24.50% and 4.50% respectively. Inter - period spreads show significant variations, for example, the spread between the January and current - month contracts is -401.60, with a change of -0.80 [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot price difference is -122.72, with a change of 20.90 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 85.00% and 13.70% respectively. Inter - period spreads have specific values and changes, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -73.20, with a change of 1.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, and others are provided, along with their changes and percentiles. For example, the ratio of CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50 is 2.4423, with a change of 0.0358, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 94.20% and 75.20% respectively [1]. Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.9462, with a change of -0.0759, and the percentile since listing is 52.30%. TF basis is 1.9288, with a change of -0.0031, and the percentile is 56.20%. T basis is 2.0877, with a change of -0.0425, and the percentile is 71.40%. TL basis is 2.2535, with a change of 0.0762, and the percentile is 80.90% [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads for each type of treasury bond futures are presented. For example, for TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and the percentile is 43.20% [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different types of treasury bond futures are given. For example, the spread between TS and TF is -3.4940, with a change of -0.0650, and the percentile is 8.70% [3]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Futures Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 910.88 on October 29, up 1.05% from the previous day. AG2512 contract closed at 11338, up 2.62%. In the foreign market, COMEX gold closed at 3941.70, down 0.67%, and COMEX silver closed at 47.28, up 0.29% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3929.66, down 0.56%, and London silver was at 47.49, up 0.98%. Shanghai Gold TD was at 912.42, up 1.75%, and Shanghai Silver TD was at 11351, up 3.23% [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values and their changes, as well as ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, are provided. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures is 1.54, with a change of 6.23, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 98.70% [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Interest rates of US Treasury bonds, exchange rates, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges and ETF holdings are presented. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.08%, up 2.3% from the previous day [5]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different companies are provided. For example, MAERSK's price is 2445 dollars/FEU, up 2.09% from the previous day, while CMA CGM's price is 2788 dollars/FEU, down 4.06% [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1312.71, up 15.11% from October 20. Other indexes like SCFI composite index and its sub - indexes for different routes also show their values and changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided. For example, the price of EC2602 is 1606.0, up 3.70% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract (EC2512) is -208.6, down 23.21% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export balances, and overseas economic indicators are presented. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3330.07 million IFU, and the port on - time rate in Shanghai in September is 42.77%, up 133.59% from August [6].
《金融》日报-20251029
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:56
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - The report presents the price spread data of various stock index futures on October 29, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It shows the changes compared to the previous day, the latest values, and the historical quantiles [1]. - For example, the IF spot - futures spread is -22.37, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 37.20% and an all - time quantile of 63.50% [1]. - The report also provides cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios for different stock index futures [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - On October 29, 2025, the report shows the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures such as TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - For instance, the TS basis is 1.5509, with a change of -0.0241 compared to the previous day and a 24.00% percentile since listing [2]. - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads are also presented with their respective changes and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - On October 29, 2025, the report details the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory positions of precious metals [4]. - Domestic AU2512 and AG2512 contracts decreased by -3.51% and -3.03% respectively compared to the previous day [4]. - The COMEX gold futures decreased by -0.72%, while the COMEX silver futures increased by 0.66% [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - The report on October 29, 2025, covers the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [6]. - Some shipping companies' spot rates like MAERSK, ONE, and EMC increased, while CMA decreased [6]. - The SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI indices all showed significant increases [6]. - Fundamental data includes changes in global container capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic data [6].
天胶早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -610 with the spot at 14750, showing a bearish signal. Exchange and Qingdao region inventories are decreasing week - on - week, with the former also decreasing year - on - year and the latter increasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 28 [8] Inventory - Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao region inventories are also continuously decreasing [14][17] Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are also at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on October 28 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]
纯碱玻璃周报-20251028
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 09:29
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - Donghai Futures Black Building Materials Weekly Strategy" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Huifeng, Wu Bingxin [2] Group 2: Soda Ash and Glass Futures Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.65%. The closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan, with a daily decrease of 3 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -0.27%. The trading volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,407,877 lots, an increase of 2231 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume of the glass main contract was 1,721,622 lots, an increase of 163,001 lots from the previous week [6]. - **Price Trends**: The report presents the historical closing price trends of the soda ash and glass main contracts, as well as the weekly price fluctuations and trading volume changes [3][4][6]. Group 3: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: China's soda ash production has increased week - on - week, with some plants resuming operation and the operating rate rising. Soda ash is still in the capacity - launch period, and the supply pressure persists [68]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The overall capacity utilization rate of soda ash has increased. The capacity utilization rates of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process are 91.09% and 76.23% respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.67 and 0.49 percentage points, and week - on - week increase rates of 1.87% and 0.65% respectively [30]. - **Inventory**: The total factory inventory of soda ash is 170.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons, an increase rate of 0.09%. Among them, the heavy - soda ash inventory is 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons, a decrease rate of - 0.66%, and the light - soda ash inventory is 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons, an increase rate of 1.03% [36]. - **Profit**: The weekly profit of soda ash has decreased, and the current loss is expanding [68]. Group 4: Glass Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The number of operating glass production lines and the capacity utilization rate remained stable last week, with overall supply remaining stable and little week - on - week change [69]. - **Demand**: The order days of downstream deep - processing plants are 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days. The peak - season demand has slightly improved, but it is still not good compared to the same period last year, showing a situation of "peak season not prosperous" [69]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the inventory trends of glass in different regions and overall in China, including factory inventories and trader inventories [49][56][60]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels have decreased week - on - week [69]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - **Soda Ash**: Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document issued in the soda ash industry yet. The driving force of soda ash following the policy is insufficient. Currently, the supply pressure of soda ash still exists. In the medium - to - long - term, the contradiction on the supply side is the core factor dragging down and suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a long - term bearish view [68]. - **Glass**: Glass is supported by the anti - involution policy, but the overall demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand for glass during the year - end peak construction period. Short - term range trading is recommended [69].
纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯港口库存回落,但基差表现仍弱-20251028
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene port inventory has declined again, but the basis performance remains weak due to weak downstream demand, with varying degrees of decline in the开工 rates of styrene, CPL, and adipic acid. The domestic开工 rate of pure benzene has decreased at an accelerating pace, and the pure benzene load of some refineries in Shandong and Ningbo has been affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States [3]. - For styrene, there are still short - term maintenance plans, and new device launches such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical have an impact. Downstream开工 changes little, but the提货 performance is average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics remains high, so the port inventory pressure of EB persists, waiting for further loss - driven production cuts [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures related to the basis and inter - period spread of pure benzene and EB are presented, including the basis of pure benzene and EB main contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper cargo, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene and EB [8][12][19] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures show the processing fees of naphtha, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene devices, and various internal and external spreads of pure benzene and styrene [22][25][31] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures display the inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene, including the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory of styrene, and the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene [42][44][47] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are the downstream products of styrene [53][55][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of related products like PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, etc. [63][66][77] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term strategy is to expand the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) when it is low [4]