Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rose due to a weaker dollar, while soybean meal fell and soybean oil increased [2][10] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for January is 3.23 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 3.79 million tons [2][10] - Domestic protein meal shows strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, but limited by arbitrage funds [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, supported by good export data and declining production [3][11] - January palm oil exports increased by 7.97%-9.97% month-on-month, while production decreased by 14.81% [3][11] - Domestic oil prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, while soybean and rapeseed oil followed [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 1.57% to 11,285 yuan/ton [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China was 12.7 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg week-on-week [5][12] - Increased supply and general demand led to a decline in pig prices, with a recommendation for short-term trading [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract down 0.72% to 3,047 yuan/500 kg [6][13] - The national average egg price was 3.94 yuan/lb, up 0.08 yuan/lb week-on-week [6][13] - Short-term pre-holiday stocking supports current prices, but long-term supply pressures may arise due to increased breeding intentions [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures decreased as funds shifted to the May contract, with near-term contracts leading the decline [7][14] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices support market prices [7][14] - The overall pace of grain sales is slower compared to last year, with stable prices in the sales regions [7][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market has complex trends with different varieties showing various performances such as oscillation, strength, or weakness, and is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Metals - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, overseas smelting cost increase drives the price up, hold cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, pay attention to geopolitical changes and take profit on long positions when the situation eases [3]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Weak adjustment, Vale's accident but the price is still under pressure, short positions can be set up around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Short - term bullish, may try to break through 9300 [3]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: Bullish oscillation, take profit on long positions at high prices, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Copper (CU2603)**: CL premium narrows and spot discount widens, take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the 99000 - 100000 support level [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The dollar drops to a four - year low, driving the price up strongly. Wait for a pullback to set up long positions in the 23500 - 25000 range [3]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: The price rises at the end of the session but spot trading is cold. Be cautious in the short - term, consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. - **Nickel (NI2602)**: The driving force is limited after the news is digested, conduct range - bound trading in the 140000 - 150000 range [3]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Oscillation adjustment, the main contract ranges from 14200 to 15000 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Spot price stabilizes, futures price rises and then falls, the main contract ranges from 8200 to 9200 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX (PX2603)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 7100 - 7500, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 5100 - 5400, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF2603)**: Follow raw materials, do positive arbitrage in TA5 - 9, shrink processing fees at high levels [3]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2603)**: Multiple devices are under maintenance and factories are destocking, processing fees are supported, ranging from 400 - 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Positive arbitrage opportunity, sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high prices [3]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: Supply - demand improves but high inventory suppresses, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Supply - demand weakens and high valuation pressures the price, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Trading volume decreases, wait and see [3]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, price oscillates, wait and see [3]. - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: Supply pressure is high, price center moves down, short on rebounds [3]. - **PVC (V2605)**: May enter wide - range oscillation, short - term low - buying, wait and see on short positions [3]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Take profit on long positions, short at high prices [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Oscillation is weak, wait and see [3]. - **Glass (FG2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, pay attention to production lines and inventory changes, wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Strong bottom support, range oscillation [3]. - **Live Pigs (FH2603)**: Supply - demand game intensifies, range oscillation [3]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Oscillation [3]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot trading slows down, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot is stable, pay attention to the support at 14400 - 14500 [3]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot is stable with a bullish bias, range oscillation [3]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Demand increases, participate in the rebound with a light position [3]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Stocking is nearing the end, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures (IF2603, IC2603, IH2603, IM2603)**: Broad - based indexes oscillate in a range, theme industries rise structurally, control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: The bond market is in an oscillatory pattern, conduct range - bound operations, and pay attention to positive arbitrage in TL and T contracts [3]. - **Precious Metals Futures (AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, PD2606)**: The price trends of precious metals diverge, take profit on gold long positions at high prices, and be careful with silver and platinum [3]. Building Materials - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel price is stable, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens, hold long positions on the spread [3]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices in Shanxi loosen, Mongolian coal price falls from a high, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Coke price increase is hard to implement, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF603)**: No major supply - demand contradiction, cost may rise, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM605)**: Ore replenishment is nearly over, supply - demand improves, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, sell out - of - the - money put options at the price lower limit and short at high prices [3].

-200 -100 -300 -400 -200 -500 华东基差(镇江库) 山乐县差 (+80) 2022 2021 2023 2024 2020 2025 华南基差(佛山库) 山东县差 交国景 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 10/1 11/1 9/1 -100 -200 -300 -300 研究中心能化团队 2026/1/28 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | FARE REAL 1/27 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/26 | 1/21 | 1/23 | 1/26 | | 日度变化 | 팀 | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -22 | -17 | -56 | -79 | -69 | 10 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | -115 | -7 | -56 | -79 | 1 | 80 | | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | -195 | -27 | -56 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 28, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 shows that the basis on January 21 was - 115 yuan/ton, and from January 22 - 27 it was - 116 yuan/ton [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Energy Commodities**: Basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of INE crude oil was - 11.28 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. For instance, on January 27, the basis of rubber was - 355 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 21 - 27, 2026 are shown. On January 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1948 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was - 740 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.97 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of copper was - 1180 yuan/ton [27]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 27, 2026 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (93.80) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 204 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was - 43 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 [35]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of CSI 300 was - 12.41 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 44.6 [47].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The overall internal and external valuation is moderately high. Despite the decline in PDH operation rate, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the US and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, combined with negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the upward momentum will weaken. The domestic LPG spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [4] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Spread Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From 2026/01/21 to 2026/01/27, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, showed fluctuations. The daily change on 2026/01/27 included a 70 - yuan increase in South China LPG, a 2 - yuan increase in East China LPG, and a 10 - yuan decrease in Shandong LPG. [4] - **Spread Data**: The 03 - 04 spread was - 274 (- 6), and the 04 - 05 spread was 88 (- 5). As of 9 pm, FEI and CP paper prices reached $539.64 and $534.64 respectively. Weekly spreads also changed, with the 03 basis at 96 (- 83), 02 - 03 spread at 64 (- 16), and 03 - 04 spread at - 261 (- 32). [4] 2. Market Conditions and Factors - **Domestic Market**: The domestic market was significantly affected by geopolitical and international factors this week. Civil LPG prices were divergent, with Shandong at 4460 (+ 20), East China at 4372 (- 151), and South China at 4780 (- 255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+ 10). Warehouse receipts were 5898 lots (- 79). [4] - **International Market**: FEI spreads rose, while MB and CP spreads slightly declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased slightly, FEI strengthened against CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 55.1 (- 18.7). Propane arrival discounts in East China, and FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US also changed. Freight rates decreased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (weekly + 9). [4] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper profits dropped significantly. [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%. Refinery storage utilization increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. [4] 4. Industry Operation PDH operation rate was 62.25% (- 10.82 pct). Juzhengyuan Phase II was under maintenance, and Ruiheng had a breakdown and stopped production, expected to resume next week. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The supply - side has stable blast furnace profits and rising disk profits, so steel mills may continue to increase production with a low probability of significant reduction. The demand - side is affected by winter cold, with seasonal weakening of rebar demand and inventory accumulation, and hot - rolled coil demand may slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices will fluctuate within a range [3]. - Iron Ore: Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the downside is supported by the healthy fundamentals of steel, good profits of steel mills, and inventory replenishment expectations. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of rainy seasons in Australia and Brazil on shipments. It is expected that the price decline space is limited [23]. - Coal and Coke: Coking coal is in a pattern of "strong spot, weak disk" with a high basis. Without strong policy expectations to boost the disk, as winter storage enters the second half, the demand sustainability is limited, and the spot price of coking coal may face downward pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, if there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic supply recovery" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [36]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. The upper limit of silicon - manganese is restricted by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicon - iron are slightly better than those of silicon - manganese. In the short term, ferroalloys will fluctuate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [52]. - Soda Ash: The short - term commodity sentiment is warming up, which may drive some low - valued varieties. If the disk rises, there is some inventory replenishment space for middle and downstream players, but the demand is average with limited elasticity. In terms of fundamentals, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the oversupply expectation is intensifying. The export of soda ash remains high, which alleviates the domestic pressure to some extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [66]. - Glass: Although the daily melting of float glass has dropped to a certain low level, the demand reality and expectation are also weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines for cold - repair and ignition, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. Currently, the high inventory of the middle reaches of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists [90]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3199 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan from January 26), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3330 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The basis and month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4][10][12]. - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day. For example, 01 rebar/01 iron ore was 4, and 01 rebar/01 coke was 2 [20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan from January 26). The basis also increased, and the prices of various iron ore varieties such as Rizhao PB powder also rose [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the 45 - port desilting volume decreased, the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased, the 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel mill inventory increased, and the available days of 247 steel mills also increased [30]. Coal and Coke - **Price Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was - 178 (down 12.5 from January 26). The disk coking profit increased, and the ratios such as the main ore - coke ratio also changed [39]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions remained relatively stable on January 27, 2026, with some slight changes in the import profit of different types of coal [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - Iron**: On January 27, 2026, compared with the previous day, the basis of silicon - iron in Ningxia increased, the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke and动力煤 decreased slightly, and the number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased [53]. - **Silicon - Manganese**: On January 27, 2026, the basis of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia increased, the month - spreads changed slightly, the spot prices in various regions remained stable, and the prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts increased slightly [54][56]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [67]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the overall inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, restricting the price [66]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 27, 2026, the prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan from January 26). The month - spreads and basis changed [91]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the period from January 17 - 23, 2026 [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 27, 2026, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to offer data references for investors [1][5][20][26][35][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The basis on January 26, 2026, was - 116 yuan/ton, consistent with January 23 and 22, and slightly different from January 21 (- 115 yuan/ton) and January 20 (- 112 yuan/ton). The 5 - 1 and 9 - 1, 9 - 5 inter - month spreads remained at zero during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratios**: For example, on January 26, 2026, the basis of fuel oil was - 4.21 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395. Different energy commodities had different basis and ratio values on different dates [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rubber, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 595 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 was - 670 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 was - 75 yuan/ton. Different chemical products had different inter - month spread values [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1977 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [9]. - **Basis**: The basis of different chemical products such as rubber, methanol, etc., varied on different dates. For example, the basis of rubber on January 26, 2026, was - 280 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 74 yuan/ton, the 9(10) - 1 was - 24 yuan/ton, and the 9(10) - 5 was 50 yuan/ton. Different black metal products had different inter - month spread values [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.98, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was - 158 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal varied on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on January 26, 2026, was 147 yuan/ton [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market varied on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on January 26, 2026, was 220 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts, Shanghai - London Ratios, Import Profits and Losses**: On January 23, 2026, the LME premium/discount of copper was 66.06, the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.85, and the import loss was 638.66. Different non - ferrous metals had different values in these aspects [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn varied on different dates. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 26, 2026, was - 224 yuan/ton [35]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 29 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 was - 3 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 was 26 yuan/ton. Different agricultural products had different inter - month spread values [35]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.91, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 505 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 varied on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 26, 2026, was - 68.03 [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between the next - month and the current - month, and the next - quarter and the current - quarter contracts of different stock index futures varied. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus the current - month spread was - 12.4 [47].

成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 12/25 | 1/20 | 1/22 | 1/23 | 1/26 | MISUL O HOLOLAL FACY 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -55 -115 | 1 11 | -92 -72 | -56 | -79 -79 | -23 -23 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | | | | -56 | | | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | -195 | -9 | -92 | -56 | -49 | 7 | | | | 01-03 | -32 | -57 | -83 | -88 | -69 | 19 | | | | 02-03 | -7 | -17 | -14 | -14 | -17 | -3 | | | | 03-06 | -30 | -16 | -8 | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | ：11:1 | BU主力合约(02) | 2992 | 3139 | 3242 | 3236 | 3279 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly due to geopolitical factors and the influence of the external market. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals are still tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. However, as the cold wave ends, Middle - East supply returns, and considering the negative feedback of poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March, the driving force will weaken. The domestic market's month - spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Daily Market Data - From January 20 to January 26, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China and Shandong, as well as related products like propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed different changes. The paper import profit decreased from 148 to - 169, and the main contract basis decreased from 519 to 142. On January 26, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG decreased by 10, the price of East China LPG increased by 10, the price of Shandong LPG decreased by 40, and other indicators also had corresponding daily changes [1] 2. Daily Market Conditions - On Monday, under the influence of macro and geopolitical sentiments, the futures market showed a strong performance. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 246 (+15), and the 04 - 05 month - spread was 91 (-13). As of 9 p.m., the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 551 and 540 US dollars respectively [1] 3. Weekly Views a. Price and Basis Changes - The domestic market rose this week. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 261 (-32). Civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the price in Shandong being 4460 (+20), in East China 4372 (-151), and in South China 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 (-79) [1] b. International Market Indicators - The FEI month - spread increased, while the MB and CP month - spreads decreased slightly. The oil - gas ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The domestic - foreign PG - FEI c1 reached 55.1 (-18.7). The arrival - at - shore discount of propane in East China, China was 85 (+8); the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 18 (week - on - week +9) [1] c. Profit and Inventory - PDH spot profits fluctuated, and paper - cargo profits dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and incoming shipments decreased by 13.21%, indicating a narrowing demand. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]