Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, industrial enterprises experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% while profits increased by 3%, indicating a recovery in profit margins despite a high base from the previous year [1][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth of industrial enterprises fell to 2.6% in April, primarily due to a high production level drop and increased price pressures [1][12]. - Profit growth for industrial enterprises rose to 3% in April, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with the growth rate exceeding the median of the past five years [1][6]. - The cost of goods sold per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.54 yuan, with expenses at 8.28 yuan, reflecting a decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates [12]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - The nominal inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises decreased to 3.9% in April, while the actual inventory growth rate remained stable at 6.8% after excluding price factors [4][13]. - The production and sales ratio for enterprises improved significantly, rising from historical lows to median levels, indicating a marginal improvement in operational pressure [3][13]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, saw a notable acceleration in profit growth, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth in the first four months of the year [3][9]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9% year-on-year in the first four months, with significant contributions from the semiconductor and smart product manufacturing sectors [3][9]. Future Outlook - The current external uncertainties pose risks to the stability of profit recovery, with expectations for further implementation of growth-stabilizing policies [1][3].

1 — 4 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4% （按可 比口径计算，详见附注二）。 1 — 4 月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额 7022.8 亿元，同比下降 4.4% ；股份制企业实现利润总额 15596.4 亿元，增长 1.1% ；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利 润总额 5429.2 亿元，增长 2.5% ；私营企业实现利润总额 5706.8 亿元，增长 4.3% 。 1 — 4 月份，采矿业实现利润总额 2875.0 亿元，同比下降 26.8% ；制造业实现利润总额 15549.3 亿元，增长 8.6% ；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额 2745.8 亿 元，增长 4.4% 。 4 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0% 。 来源： 统计微讯 1 — 4 月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长 45.6% ，有色金属 冶炼和压延加工业增长 24.5% ，电气机械和器材制造业增长 15.4% ，专用设备制造业增长 13.2% ，通用设备制造业增长 11.7% ，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 11.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China showed a slight increase in the first four months of the year, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors and ownership types [1][7]. Group 1: Profit Performance - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 21,170.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1]. - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 7,022.8 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, while joint-stock enterprises saw a profit of 15,596.4 billion yuan, up 1.1% [1]. - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises achieved a profit of 5,429.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%, and private enterprises reported a profit of 5,706.8 billion yuan, up 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The mining industry experienced a significant profit decline of 26.8%, while the manufacturing sector saw an 8.6% profit increase [2]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the agricultural and sideline food processing industry at 45.6%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry at 24.5% [2]. - The power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a profit increase of 4.4% [2]. Group 3: Revenue and Costs - The total operating revenue for industrial enterprises above designated size was 434,400 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, with operating costs rising by 3.4% to 371,600 billion yuan [3]. - The operating profit margin was recorded at 4.87%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of April, total assets of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 181,350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, while total liabilities grew by 5.7% to 104,620 billion yuan [4]. - The equity of these enterprises totaled 76,720 billion yuan, up 4.7%, with an asset-liability ratio of 57.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 5: Accounts and Inventory - Accounts receivable amounted to 25,860 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, while finished goods inventory was 6,610 billion yuan, up 3.9% [5]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.3 days, up by 4.0 days year-on-year [6].

1—4月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额169.2亿元。 1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。 1—4月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额7022.8亿元，同比下降4.4%；股份制企业实现利润总额15596.4亿元， 增长1.1%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额5429.2亿元，增长2.5%；私营企业实现利润总额5706.8亿元，增长4.3%。 1—4月份，采矿业实现利润总额2875.0亿元，同比下降26.8%；制造业实现利润总额15549.3亿元，增长8.6%；电力、热力、燃气及水 生产和供应业实现利润总额2745.8亿元，增长4.4%。 1—4月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长45.6%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长24.5%，电气机械和器材 制造业增长15.4%，专用设备制造业增长13.2%，通用设备制造业增长11.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长11.6%，电 力、热力生产和供应业增长5.6%，纺织业增长3.7%，非金属矿物制品业下降1.6%，化学原料和化学制品制造业下降4.4%，汽车制造 业下降5.1%， ...

Economic Overview - The overall trend of China's economy remains positive, with recent financial data indicating sustained growth in monetary aggregates and support for the real economy [3][4]. - As of the end of April, the M2 (broad money) balance grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, influenced by low base effects from last year and effective counter-cyclical adjustments by the central bank [3]. Financial Indicators - In the first four months of the year, the social financing scale stock, broad money M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. Industrial Performance - In the first quarter, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year-on-year decline of 3.3% to a growth of 0.8%, driven by the continued release of policy effects [4]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant profit support, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial economic quality and efficiency [4].

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]

2025年1—3月份全国规模以上工业企业利润增长0.8% 1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同比增长0.8%（按可比口径计算）。 1—3月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额5599.5亿元，同比下降1.4%；股份制企业实 现利润总额11101.5亿元，增长0.1%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额3883.5亿元，增长2.8%；私营企业 实现利润总额3709.7亿元，下降0.3%。 1—3月份，采矿业实现利润总额2204.4亿元，同比下降25.5%；制造业实现利润总额10826.4亿元，增长 7.6%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额2062.8亿元，增长5.4%。 1—3月份，主要行业利润情况如下：农副食品加工业利润同比增长40.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增 长33.6%，专用设备制造业增长14.2%，通用设备制造业增长9.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长7.5%，纺织业 增长7.1%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长6.1%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长3.2%，化学原料和 化学制品制造业下降0.4%，石油和天然气开采业下降3.1%， 汽车制造业 ...

Economic Impact - The inbound economy is expected to boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025[4] - Inbound tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 0.5% in 2024 to 0.65% in 2025[4] - The number of inbound tourists is anticipated to recover from 130 million to 150 million by 2025, with per capita spending increasing by 15% to $821[4] Consumption and Retail - The new tax refund policy is expected to increase retail sales growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2025[5] - Inbound consumption is composed of approximately 80% service consumption and 20% goods consumption[5] - The estimated additional boost to goods consumption in 2025 is projected to be between 57 billion to 74.8 billion yuan[5] Industrial Performance - In March, industrial revenue grew by 4.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.6 percentage point increase from the previous value[6] - The total profit for March turned positive at 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery from negative growth[6] - The contribution to profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year was +7.5, -2.6, and -3.3 percentage points respectively[6] Profit Distribution - As of March, the profit share of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries was 29.9%, 38.2%, and 21.1% respectively[7] - Upstream profit growth improved to -7.4%, primarily due to rising prices in non-ferrous metals[7] - Midstream sectors benefitted from new policies, with significant profit growth in computer communication and electrical machinery sectors[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the year - on - year profit of large - scale industrial enterprises turned positive to 2.5%, and the profit momentum improved marginally. The increase in quantity, driven by the "rush to export" and inventory replenishment, was the main reason for the profit recovery, despite the expanding year - on - year decline in PPI [26]. - The profit shares of the mid - and downstream industries increased compared to January - February, while the upstream share decreased. The mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry performed well with an expanding year - on - year increase, and the profit growth rates of optional and necessary consumer goods in the downstream weakened [26]. - Looking ahead, the "rush to export" rhythm may slow down in the second quarter. The industrial enterprise profit momentum may weaken marginally due to the potential impact of export slowdown on PPI and sales volume. However, with the "Four Stabilities" policy and possible incremental policies in the middle of the year, the profit recovery may gradually shift to domestic demand such as consumption and investment [29]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: "Rush to Export" Boosts Mid - and Downstream Performance - **Upstream**: The year - on - year decline in the mining industry widened, and the energy supply industry turned from positive to negative in terms of profit growth. For example, coal and oil and gas mining saw an expanded decline in profit, while non - metallic mining turned from negative to positive [9][18]. - **Mid - stream**: The year - on - year profit turned positive, and the equipment manufacturing industry outperformed the material processing industry. The profit of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, and the material processing industry also had a positive growth rate of 18% [19][21]. - **Downstream**: The growth rate of necessary consumer goods slowed down, and the profit of optional consumer goods weakened. However, the electronic equipment industry still performed strongly [20][21]. 3.2 Cost End: Marginal Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to March, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income for large - scale industrial enterprises was 85.37 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.17 yuan and a 0.26 - yuan increase from January - February. The cost pressure increased marginally. - The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.43 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16 yuan and a 0.13 - yuan decrease from January - February, indicating significant cost - reduction effects. - The cumulative operating income profit margin was 4.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 pct but a 0.17 - pct increase from January - February, showing a slow improvement in profit efficiency [22]. 3.3 Inventory: Slight Replenishment of Actual Inventory - By the end of March, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.55 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 4.6%, a 0.1 - pct increase from the end of February. After excluding PPI, the actual inventory growth rate was 6.7%, higher than 6.4% in February, indicating a slight replenishment [25]. - From January to March, the turnover days of finished - product inventory were 21.2 days, a 0.1 - day increase year - on - year but a 1.1 - day decrease from January - February. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.9 days, a 4.0 - day increase year - on - year but a 4.0 - day decrease from January - February. Although the turnover and collection speed were still slower than the same period, there was a marginal improvement [25]. - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of single - month operating income rose to 4.4%. Considering the expanding price decline, the actual destocking rhythm accelerated compared to January - February [25].

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 2025年3月，工企营收累计同比3.4%、前值2.8%；利润累计同比0.8%、前值-0.3%。3月末，产成 品存货同比4.2%、前值4.2%。 核心观点：利润回升主要源于营收改善，而成本压力等中期约束仍在。 3月利润增速回升主要源于营收改善，其他损益、费用等短期指标也有贡献；而成本压力等中期约束有所 增大。 3月，工业利润当月同比回升2.8pct至2.5%。拆分结构看，利润回升主要源于营收改善，实际营收 支撑利润同比上行6.2%。利润率的贡献主要体现在费用、其他损益（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项 支出）等短期指标回升，带动利润同比上行3.8%、0.3%。相比之下，成本对利润仍然构成较大约束，拖 累整体利润下行5.9%。 3月，营收增速回升较大的是煤炭冶金链与下游消费行业，主要受益于基建提速及以旧换新政策拉动。 分结构看，3月基建提速支撑冶金产业链实际营收改善幅度较大，当月同比较前月回升2.5pct至6 ...