Production Side - In January, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces was 78.96%, showing a slight increase but still weak[3] - The operating rates for electric furnaces and rebar were 62.44% and 38.77%, respectively, both higher than the previous month's average[3] - Cement mill operating rate fell to 27.92%, a decrease from last month[3] - Chemical product operating rates generally improved, with soda ash, PVC, and PTA at 84.36%, 79.12%, and 76.10%, respectively, all significantly higher than last month[3] Demand Side - In January, the average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.64% year-on-year, while land transaction area in 100 cities fell by 32.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars significantly cooled down, while movie box office revenue dropped by 11.21% year-on-year and 25.26% month-on-month[4] - The average subway passenger volume in ten major cities was 62.89 million, up 5.19% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products rose by 5.55% year-on-year, while the chemical product price index increased by 3.70% month-on-month but decreased by 7.37% year-on-year[5] - Copper and aluminum prices rose by 8.45% and 6.39% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 32.26% and 15.58%, respectively[6] - Rebar prices remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%[6] Risk Factors - Risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and overseas policies exceeding expectations[7]

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the Iran conflict continues to escalate, MTO shows resistance with some plants shutting down. Methanol faces difficulties moving up or down, with MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options seems appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is growing, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is expected to face significant pressure in the future [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. The overall inventory is neutral, and the balance sheet for 05 and later is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook remains poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2267 to 2237, a decrease of 38 [2]. - Market Situation: The Iran conflict affects the market. MTO plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi are shutting down or planning to reduce production, waiting for the situation in Iran to normalize [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 700 (except for February 2 when it was not provided). The华北LL price dropped from 6740 to 6730, a decrease of 100 [2]. - Market Situation: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changing regional price differences. The oil - and coal - based production profits are deteriorating, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [2]. PP - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the山东丙烯 price remained stable at 6370. The华东PP price dropped from 6670 to 6615, a decrease of 55 [3]. - Market Situation: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has decreased slightly. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans have increased, and the overall inventory is neutral [3]. PVC - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the西北电石 price increased from 2450 to 2550, an increase of 50. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4720 to 4830, an increase of 50 [4][5]. - Market Situation: The basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low. The short - term seasonal production recovery is underway, and long - term real - estate demand is weak [5].

Group 1: Employment and Work Hours - The average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises is 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[3] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with employees averaging over 54.5 hours of leisure time per week after accounting for work, rest, and commuting[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to increase the consumption rate by enhancing residents' income and reducing their burdens, thereby improving consumption capacity[3] Group 2: Consumption and Economic Impact - More leisure time provides additional consumption scenarios, primarily reflected in the recovery of service consumption demand[3] - One of the constraints on expanding service consumption is the concentration of consumption scenarios, leading to poor consumer experiences[3] - Measures to protect workers' rights to rest and vacation, and to prevent illegal extensions of working hours, are beneficial for improving consumption demand[3] Group 3: Risks and Economic Indicators - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, global recession, and unexpected monetary policy changes in major economies[3] - The proportion of enterprise employees in employment types has reached 60%, with the remaining 40% also significantly impacting leisure time and consumption rates[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX & PTA: Geopolitical risks disrupt oil price fluctuations on the cost side. Currently, polyester costs are high, and profit distribution has shifted from being concentrated on the PX side to a situation where both PXN and TA processing margins have rebounded to a moderately high level in the past five years. With acceptable processing profits for PX and TA, there are few changes in PX and TA devices. TA overseas devices have maintenance plans in February. China's PX maintains a monthly average of 90%, and domestic TA maintains a monthly average of 77%. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, polyester raw materials will enter the inventory accumulation channel in February, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure for PX and PTA in February is obvious. In the second quarter, polyester raw materials will undergo spring maintenance, and the polyester restart load will rebound. The far - month fundamentals are expected to be good. It is expected that the market in February will be low at first and then high. Attention should be paid to the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of the month and significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [144]. - MEG: On the supply side, some overseas devices, including those in Saudi Arabia and Singapore, have restart plans around March. There are few changes in domestic devices in February. Currently, the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and port inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival holiday in February, the weak reality of downstream industries is gradually materializing. Polyester factories, including terminal texturing, weaving, and dyeing factories, will gradually resume work from early to mid - March. According to CCF's assessment, the average operating load of polyester in February can drop to 80 - 82%. Then, in mid - to late March, as the devices restart, the polyester operating load will rebound. Overall, the supply of ethylene glycol increases while the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation in February is strong. The valuation has been repaired, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - side price fluctuations, and the risk of less - than - expected demand recovery in the second half of February [144]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Geopolitical Disturbance of Crude Oil Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of January 30, 2026, the closing prices of PTA, MEG, and PX were 5270 yuan/ton, 3913 yuan/ton, and 7400 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 yuan/ton, + 67 yuan/ton, and - 156 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.2%, 1.7%, and - 2.1% [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread data show certain seasonal characteristics. For example, the basis of TA01, TA05, and TA09 contracts has different trends in different months. The PTA nine - one spread and five - nine spread also show different values in different periods [8][9][10]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also have seasonal characteristics, and the basis and spread of different contracts (EG01, EG05, EG09) change over time [12]. - **PX Basis**: As of January 30, 2026, the PX basis was 30 yuan/ton, with a change of 162 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 122.8% [14]. - **TA - EG Spread**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - EG spread was 1357 yuan/ton, with a change of - 77 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 5.4% [16]. - **TA - PX Processing Margin**: As of January 30, 2026, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread was 416 yuan/ton, with a change of 92 yuan/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of 28.6% [20]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: As of January 29, 2026, the ethylene glycol spread between Europe and China was 199 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 17 US dollars/ton compared to December 26, 2025, and a percentage change of - 7.8% [23]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Little Change in Devices - **PX**: As of January 30, the Asian PX operating load was 81.5%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 89.2%, with a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point. The 800,000 - ton PX device of Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting at the end of January and was expected to produce products soon [33]. - **PTA**: As of January 30, the PTA operating load was 76.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points. Some devices had maintenance plans, such as the 1.25 - million - ton/year device of Ineos, which stopped on January 16 and was expected to restart in March; the 700,000 - ton/year (6) device of CAPCO in Taiwan was planned to be overhauled from February 5 and was expected to last until mid - March; the 225,000 - ton/year (QTA) device of Hanwha in South Korea was shut down for maintenance from January to March [36]. - **MEG**: As of January 30, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 74.27% (a month - on - month increase of 0.95%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 81.02% (a month - on - month increase of 3.74%). Some devices had maintenance or production - transfer plans, such as the 700,000 - ton/year device of Gulei Petrochemical, which would start maintenance in early March and was expected to last for 50 - 60 days; one line of Satellite Petrochemical was planned to stop production and transfer to PE production in mid - to late February, and the recovery time was to be determined [52]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Cancellation of India's BIS Certification - **PX Import**: In December 2025, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 933,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [56]. - **PTA Export**: In December 2025, the PTA export volume was 361,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 3.82 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decline of 13.6% [59]. - **MEG Import**: In December 2025, the ethylene glycol import volume was 835,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 7.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8% [63]. - **Polyester Export**: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.3074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 32,600 tons [67]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Low Profits and Low Inventories of Downstream Finished Products - **PTA Inventory**: The PTA total inventory is at the bottom. The inventory data of PTA in different aspects, such as total inventory, polyester factory inventory, in - warehouse and in - port inventory, and total warehouse receipts, show certain trends over time [76][77]. - **MEG Inventory**: As of January 26, the ethylene glycol port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 858,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 128,000 tons [79]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Tests - **Domestic Polyester Device Changes**: In January 2026, many polyester devices had maintenance or restart plans, involving different types of products such as short - fiber, long - fiber, and bottle - chip [83]. - **Domestic Polyester - Related Data**: As of January 30, 2026, the polyester operating load was 84.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.2 percentage points. The operating rates of texturing machines, looms, and dyeing factories also decreased to varying degrees. The inventory days and cash - flow data of different polyester products also changed [86]. - **Polyester Demand and Terminal Demand**: Polyester demand shows certain resilience, but terminal demand is declining. The operating rates of polyester, texturing machines, and looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, as well as the sales volume of polyester yarns, show different trends. The inventory of long - fiber and short - fiber products is at a low level, but the terminal digestion ability of the weaving industry is weak, and the export of textiles and clothing in China is also weak [87][101]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PTA futures position was 2,186,334 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 335,082 lots and a year - on - year increase of 897,595 lots [114]. - **MEG Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total MEG futures position was 453,170 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 102,376 lots and a year - on - year increase of 184,266 lots [114]. - **PX Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2026, the total PX futures position was 460,833 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,922 lots and a year - on - year increase of 331,416 lots [114].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is "sideways" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply - demand is weak. Downstream steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is nearing the end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking plants are in continuous losses, with strong price - increase intentions. There are still expectations for subsequent policies at the macro - level. Overall, the market is under pressure due to the news of the Fed nomination. In the short term, it will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, and a low - buying strategy can be considered. Attention should be paid to the support near the previous low and the resistance near the previous high [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Coke Inventory - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 133,000 tons to 1.01235 billion tons, reaching a 7 - and - a - half - month high, with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Demand - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% week - on - week to 79%, 1.02% higher than the same period last year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 39.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 1,200 tons week - on - week to 2.2798 million tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a decline in supply. The coking coal inventory in mines decreased by 72,000 tons to 2.672 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 460,000 tons week - on - week to 28.6434 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] News - US President Trump officially nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair to replace Powell whose term ends in May. The nomination of Warsh as Fed chair triggered hawkish expectations, causing violent fluctuations in the financial market. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.26~1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约上涨2.31%，收报于103680元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚 需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存174975吨，上周小幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至 233004吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供需平衡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].