有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/05 210 4659 115035 30936 -860.77 -63.25 38.0 46.0 23.05 162550 63850 2025/12/08 145 3804 115035 29956 -857.49 -131.15 40.0 46.0 8.19 164550 63175 2025/12/09 110 4266 115035 29531 -838.94 -8.32 40.0 46.0 0.00 165675 63100 2025/12/10 35 4271 115035 28931 -1168.76 -70.55 41.0 48.0 11.69 164975 65400 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 变化 -30 ...

截至12月11日当周，中国甲醇产量为2039705吨，较上周增加16240吨，装置产能利用率为89.81%，环 比涨0.81%。中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，较上期减少0.87万吨，环比降2.40%；样本企业订 单待发20.75万吨，较上期降低3.22万吨，环比降13.45%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | | | | ★ | 反弹偏空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 盘面维持升水结构，企业库存窄幅增加。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港 | | L | 空头延续 | 资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。 | | ★ | | 油价中期仍存下移风险，成本支撑不足 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/11 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/0 4 801 2125 2075 2430 2465 2435 2608 245 317 7 -24 -1080 2025/12/0 5 801 2090 2058 2430 2465 2435 2608 241 317 12 -15 -1044 2025/12/0 8 801 2088 2068 2425 2465 2435 2595 243 317 -10 0 -1092 2025/12/0 9 801 2090 2053 2423 2465 2385 2590 243 317 -15 5 -1106 2025/12/1 0 801 - 2053 - 2465 2395 2580 - - - 25 - 日度变化 0 - 0 - 0 10 -10 - - - 20 - 观点 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread was at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday; the cracking spread of European HSFO fluctuated weakly, and the EW spread fluctuated. The cracking spread of 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis fluctuating at low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. [3] - With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. [4] - The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low but there was no driving force. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 dropped from 348.42 to 335.47, a decrease of 4.32; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 dropped from 390.01 to 381.64, a decrease of 3.04. [1] - The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 spread changed by 0.06, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 11.68, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.64, the LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.96, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.28. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 dropped from 345.72 to 341.31, a decrease of 11.08; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 dropped from 350.42 to 349.84, a decrease of 9.74; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 dropped from 419.63 to 416.32, a decrease of 10.14. [1] - The price of Singapore GO M1 dropped from 83.93 to 83.59, a decrease of 1.87; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 spread decreased by 0.31, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 3.69. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst dropped from 334.01 to 333.81, a decrease of 9.72; the FOB price of VLSFO dropped from 418.67 to 415.01, a decrease of 10.02. [2] - The 380 - cst basis increased by 1.18, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.3. [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of FU 01 dropped from 2437 to 2418, a decrease of 90; the price of FU 05 dropped from 2499 to 2488, a decrease of 85; the price of FU 09 dropped from 2468 to 2464, a decrease of 70. [2] - The FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5, the FU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15, and the FU 09 - 01 spread increased by 20. [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of LU 01 dropped from 3010 to 2989, a decrease of 82; the price of LU 05 dropped from 3021 to 3003, a decrease of 88; the price of LU 09 dropped from 3060 to 3033, a decrease of 72. [3] - The LU 01 - 05 spread increased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 16, and the LU 09 - 01 spread increased by 10. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]