程强表示，"十五五"开局之年产业仍是重点，扩内需、科技创新、"双碳"值得关注。政策部署更注重短 期政策力度和长期制度改革结合，会议提出"坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既'放得活'又'管 得好'"和"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"。程强认为，产业发展被提升到了一个前所未有的高 度，未来几年的工作重心将放在产业领先和安全建设方面；探索构建产业发展导向的宏观政策体系，在 推动科技创新、加快培育新动能、促进经济结构优化升级上取得实质性、突破性进展，将成为未来工作 的重要方向之一。 人民财讯12月12日电，12月12日，德邦证券首席经济学家程强表示，今年中央经济工作会议政策的总基 调更加突出"提质增效"，2026年经济增速目标将调整至更务实、更符合提质增效和高质量发展要求的水 平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The possibility of a trend - based economic recovery in 2026 is low. To cope with uncertainties, monetary policy still needs to have aggregate - based loosening. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts next year, and the bond market can be optimistic. In the short term, the bond market adjustment may have basically ended, and the bond market pressure in the first quarter of next year may be lower than expected. The bond market interest rate may break through the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Economic Goal - The economic growth target for next year may remain at around 5%, but there are still many old problems and new challenges, and it will be difficult to achieve [6]. Fiscal Policy - Compared with last year, the expression of fiscal policy has weakened. The deficit rate may remain at 4%, with 5 trillion yuan in new special bonds, 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds. Considering macro uncertainties, some new special bonds may be revitalized in the second half of the year. The net financing of government bonds may be about 1.5 trillion yuan more than this year [7]. Local Finance - Changing from "increasing local autonomous financial resources" to "attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties" does not provide more incremental information [8]. Debt Resolution - Debt resolution remains the focus of local work next year. The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to take the initiative to resolve debts, and not allowing illegal new implicit debts, and also requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises [10]. Monetary Policy - The tone of monetary policy is still "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier for reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has changed from "opportunistically" to "flexibly and efficiently". The central bank may not conduct aggregate - based loosening based on financial data changes but anchor economic growth, inflation, and boosting social confidence. There may be structural policies to support key areas. The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, one at the beginning of next year [11]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The expression of expanding domestic demand has weakened. Although it mentions "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", the "optimization - based" means seem insufficient. "Continuing to play the role of new policy - based tools" and "deeply promoting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries" may be important measures next year [12]. Real Estate - In the arrangement of key work, the priority of real estate has dropped, and the expression has also weakened. The urgency of real - estate work has decreased [13]. Anti - Involution - Anti - involution continues to be steadily promoted. It emphasizes that anti - involution needs to be based on the construction of a national unified market. Regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies may reduce duplicate production capacity initiated by local governments, but demand will also be affected, and price recovery may face certain resistance [14]. Reform of Small and Medium - sized Financial Institutions - The reform of small and medium - sized financial institutions will accelerate mergers. The trend of large institutions merging small and medium - sized ones is clear. More than 350 small and medium - sized banks have exited the market this year, and state - owned large banks have participated in integration activities [15]. Policy Rhythm - The demand for policies to be implemented earlier has weakened, and the possibility of a good start in the first quarter of next year needs further observation [16].

Group 1 - The restaurant stocks are performing well, with notable increases: Jiumaojiu (09922) up 4.82%, Haidilao (06862) up 4.14%, Yum China (09987) up 2.63%, Xiaobai (00520) up 2.50%, Xiaocaiyuan (00999) up 2.54%, and Nayuki (02150) up 1.92% [1][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2] - The rise in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, with household appliances and clothing prices increasing by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively, while prices for air tickets, domestic services, and dining out rose by 7.0%, 2.4%, and 1.2% [1][2] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities forecasts that the share of domestic service consumption in total household consumption has recovered to 46%, nearing the critical structural threshold of 50%, indicating a potential rapid growth phase for the industry [1][2] - Service consumption is expected to become a key driver for domestic demand and consumption recovery, offering higher growth elasticity and user stickiness compared to goods consumption due to its personalized interaction and unique experiences [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on chain restaurants and tea beverage companies, highlighting that those with brand advantages and supply chain strengths will have greater development potential, particularly those with scale effects and performance elasticity [1][2]

分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-12 研究所 风险提示： 中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；政策效果不及预期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务 价格相对稳固》 - 2025.12.11 宏观研究 中共中央经济工作会议精神学习：符合预期，整体 定调更具针对性 核心要点 本次中央经济工作会议基本符合预期，整体定调更具针对性，各 项核心部署基本契合市场预期，政策导向的延续性与灵活性得到充分 体现。2026 年我国经济发展仍是目标导向，经济增长预期目标或应有 所下修。宏观政策"更加积极"定调不变，政策倾向于保持谨慎克制， 政策力度或基本持平去年水平。 从 8 个重点工作内容来看，（1）扩内需仍是首位工作，重点关 注服务消费突围、"两重"投资回暖。（2）国际科技创新中心引领新 动能培育和发展，新型基础设施建设是 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, driven primarily by a reversal in food prices from a decline to an increase [2][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][4] - The increase in CPI was influenced by seasonal price rises in services and industrial consumer goods, with notable increases in household appliances (4.9%) and clothing (2.0%) [2][4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, reflecting seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4][5] - The PPI decline was less severe than in previous months, with improvements noted in sectors such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, indicating a narrowing of price drops due to ongoing capacity governance [4][5] - Emerging industries, including new materials and intelligent services, are driving price increases in related sectors, with significant year-on-year price rises in external storage devices (13.9%) and artistic products (20.6%) [5][6] Group 3 - To maintain price stability and promote reasonable price recovery, there is a need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing market competition [6][7] - The upcoming year-end period is seen as a critical time for consumption, with plans for various promotional activities to stimulate consumer spending [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that with the implementation of demand expansion policies and ongoing capacity governance, prices are expected to rise moderately, supported by improvements in supply-demand structures [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "promote qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" for the upcoming year, aiming for a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Economic Growth and Challenges - The conference highlights the importance of maintaining a reasonable GDP growth rate over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [1] - Current economic challenges include longstanding issues, new challenges, and a deepening impact from external environmental changes, with a notable contradiction between strong supply and weak demand [1][2] Policy Measures - The conference outlines several key tasks for the upcoming year, including enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, and maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - It is estimated that a 1% increase in GDP can provide approximately 2 million jobs, emphasizing the urgency of improving economic growth capabilities to address insufficient demand [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - "Domestic demand as the main driver" is identified as the top priority for economic work, focusing on strengthening domestic demand to ensure economic stability and security [3] - Specific measures to boost consumption include implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, formulating income increase plans for urban and rural residents, and promoting urban renewal [3] Innovation and Reform - Innovation is ranked second among the eight key tasks for the upcoming year, with a focus on driving new momentum through technological innovation [4] - The conference emphasizes the need for reform to stimulate economic potential, with a focus on overcoming development challenges through targeted reforms [5] Real Estate Market Stability - The conference places significant emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, advocating for city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality [7] - The goal is to enhance market activity and address potential homebuyer demand, with expectations for continued policy support in the real estate sector [7]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 12 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议 学习体会 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升 "扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。 "惠民生"和"稳投资"有望共同发力。 财政、货币增量政策仍然值得期待。 着眼明年的发展任务，会议将"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"放在了 会议公报相对靠前的位置，强调"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，明 年宏观政策有望更加靠前发力。 会议增加了"扩大内需、优化供给"、"做优增量、盘活存量"等重要表 述，并在明年经济工作的重点任务中，将"坚持内需主导"放在了各项 发展任务之前，明年"扩内需"的战略地位进一步提升。"扩内需"是 应对当前"老问题、新挑战"的重要抓手，其能够有效对冲外部需求的 不确定性，加速消化国内"强"供给，带动企业盈利与居民收入修复， 进而进一步推动反哺有效需求。为更好的实现这一良性循环，2026 年宏 观政策有望"更加积极有为"的发力"扩内需"。 其一，为实现"十五五"良好开局，增量政策仍然值得期待。其二，盘 活"存量"资源，"因地制宜"的做好经济工作。以发展新质生产力为 例，2024 年中央经济工作会议强调要以科技创 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest level since March 2024, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in vegetable prices, which turned from a decline of 2.9% in October to an increase of 0.2% in November, contributing positively to the CPI [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year in November, indicating a continued upward trend [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, attributed to seasonal demand increases and rising prices in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, indicating improvements in market competition and capacity management [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The economic outlook suggests that core CPI will continue to rise steadily, supported by coordinated policy efforts to boost consumption and improve living standards [3][6] - The PPI is expected to decline by approximately 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant narrowing of the decline, driven by ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the rapid development of emerging industries [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 2025 and the highest since March 2024, while it slightly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, remaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending[1] - Food prices shifted from a 2.9% decline in October to a 0.2% increase in November, primarily driving the CPI increase[1] Group 2: PPI Insights - In November 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, achieving positive growth for two consecutive months, but the year-on-year decline widened to -2.2%[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed narrowing year-on-year price declines, reflecting effective supply-demand optimization policies[2] - The prices of new materials and intelligent technologies rose significantly, with external storage devices increasing by 13.9% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The CPI's recovery is largely dependent on short-term supply shocks from fresh produce, while long-term food prices, such as pork, remain low[4] - The divergence in price trends between traditional and emerging industries reflects ongoing economic transformation, with traditional sectors still undergoing capacity reduction[4] - Future expectations suggest a gradual recovery in prices across key industries, with CPI likely to continue a moderate upward trend and PPI expected to turn positive in 2026[4]

虽然两个月CPI重回正增长，但整体需求依旧偏弱。下一步有望实施更加积极的财政政策；充分利用美联储降息窗口 进一步降准降息，激发投资需求 文｜《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑｜王延春 工业生产者价格同比变动数据显示，11月，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降2.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价 格总水平下降约1.79个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降6.1%，原材料工业价格下降2.9%，加工工业价格下降1.9%。 12月10日，国家统计局发布数据，11月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，较上月（0.2%）回升0.5个百 分点。 11月，全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，较上月（下降2.1%）回落0.1个百分点。 图表来源：国家统计局 对于CPI数据，招商证券宏观首席分析师张静静团队分析，一方面，北方产区寒潮、南方部分产区连续降雨等天气因 素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成本增加，共同推动11月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加 2024年同期低基数效应，导致11月价格同比大幅上涨。另一方面，市场猪肉终端需求跟进较为乏力，叠加市场生猪供 给持续增加，当月猪价同比跌幅依然较深，较上 ...