徐洪才指出，未来经济高质量发展，现代化进程的推进离不开新旧动能转换，离不开科技创新，它的战 略意义毫无疑问。 第三，深化人才发展机制改革。建立以创新价值、能力、贡献为导向的评价体系；推动校企联合培养， 推广现代学徒制；破除人才流动障碍，推广柔性引才政策。完善国际人才引进制度，提升人才政策国际 竞争力。 第四，优化创新生态环境。培育耐心资本，发展创业投资、知识产权质押融资等服务；完善首台套、首 批次应用政策，建立创新容错机制。建设全国统一技术市场，促进创新要素高效流动。 第五，扩大高水平开放创新。深化国际科技合作，共建联合实验室、创新中心；积极参与全球创新治 理，牵头国际大科学计划。鼓励企业参与国际标准制定，推动中国技术标准国际化。 对此，徐洪才提出五点建议： 第一，完善国家创新体系。强化战略科技力量布局，优化国家实验室体系；健全新型举国体制，针对不 同技术领域采用"大兵团"攻关与"竞争择优"相结合的模式。增加基础研究投入，建立长期稳定支持机 制，将基础研究经费占比提高到10%以上。 第二，强化企业创新主体地位。完善科技领军企业遴选培育机制，支持企业牵头国家科技项目；发展科 技型中小企业，提供研发费用补贴、创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry in China's economy, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to achieve both qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Manufacturing - Manufacturing is a crucial pillar of the national economy, and its reasonable proportion is essential for solidifying the material and technological foundation of Chinese-style modernization [1][2]. - Historical lessons from developed countries show that a premature decline in manufacturing can lead to severe economic and social risks, necessitating a focus on maintaining a robust manufacturing sector [2][3]. Group 2: Current State and Future Potential - China's manufacturing sector has a solid foundation and significant growth potential, with traditional industries transitioning from cost efficiency to quality and brand advantages, while emerging industries are developing new advantages through technological and industrial innovation [3][4]. - The manufacturing proportion reflects changes in industrial structure and competitiveness, with developed countries facing challenges due to a decline in comparative advantages and investment in manufacturing [3][4]. Group 3: Structural Adjustments Needed - It is crucial to balance the development of traditional and emerging industries to maintain a reasonable manufacturing proportion, as a decline in traditional industries without sufficient growth in high-tech sectors can lead to an overall decrease in manufacturing [4][5]. - The transition from old to new growth drivers must be managed carefully, ensuring that investments in new technologies do not neglect the improvement of traditional production factors [5][6]. Group 4: Enterprise and Regional Development - The integration of large, medium, and small enterprises is vital for maintaining a reasonable manufacturing proportion, requiring strong collaboration across different levels of the supply chain [5][6]. - Regional development strategies should leverage local advantages to create a complementary and collaborative industrial landscape, enhancing the overall manufacturing ecosystem [6][7]. Group 5: Dynamic Process of Manufacturing Proportion - The change in manufacturing proportion is a dynamic process that requires continuous monitoring and adjustment of strategic focuses to align with evolving industrial trends [6][7]. - Investment in transformation and development is essential, with a focus on increasing technological innovation and improving traditional production processes to support high-quality growth in manufacturing [6][7].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 美国公布 11 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 6.4 万，失业率为 4.6%，均高于市场 预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.5%，略低于市场预期。虽然 11 月非农就业数据显示 当前美国就业市场可能仍在缓慢向下，但结合美联储 12 月 FOMC 的表态以及近 期美联储官员们的发言来看，美联储短期内降息的可能性并不高。 开源晨会 1218 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.066 | | 有色金属 | 3.03 | | 电子 | 2.48 | | 基础化工 | 2.15 | | 电力设备 | 2.087 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.543 | | 国防军工 | -0.197 | | 煤炭 | -0.115 | | 房地产 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan, tightening global liquidity, and concerns over an AI bubble, while domestic economic data shows weak demand. However, the downturn at the end of 2025 may create opportunities for 2026, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI supported by policy [1][15]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan and increased concerns over global liquidity tightening [1][15]. - Domestic economic data for November indicates continued weak demand, contributing to market volatility [1][15]. - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for significant opportunities in 2026, especially in sectors with high growth potential like AI [1][15]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors looking to capitalize on overall market trends may consider using broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) as a foundational investment, employing a "technology + dividend" strategy [1][15]. - The CSI A500 ETF is positioned to outperform traditional broad indices like the CSI 300 by having a lower allocation to traditional high-weight sectors like banking and a higher allocation to growth sectors such as power equipment, new energy, electronics, home appliances, media, and military [2][16]. Group 3: CSI A500 ETF Characteristics - The CSI A500 index is constructed to prioritize leading companies within each industry, enhancing growth potential and representativeness by including firms with the largest free-float market capitalization [5][19]. - The CSI A500 ETF has demonstrated strong performance, being a preferred choice for core asset allocation in China, reflecting the new economic upgrade and high-quality development trends [8][22]. - The ETF's structure allows for controlled volatility and diversified industry exposure, making it suitable for long-term passive investment strategies [8][22]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The CSI A500 ETF has shown a strong profit performance, with a reported profit of 4.275 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, aligning with its goal of generating returns for investors [14][28]. - The ETF's tracking error is minimal, indicating effective performance in mirroring the index, which is crucial for investor confidence [10][24]. - The fund's average daily scale is leading in the market, providing better liquidity and stability, which contributes to lower tracking errors [11][25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Added Value**: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - **Consumption and Export**: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - **Investment**: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure Optimization**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - **Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - **Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing**: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].

Core Insights - Liaoning's foreign trade showed significant growth in the first 11 months of the year, with total import and export value reaching 684.07 billion RMB, driven by a remarkable export performance of 373.48 billion RMB, which represents a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 3.2 percentage points [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports reached a historical high for the same period, injecting new momentum into Liaoning's comprehensive revitalization [1] - The growth in exports is attributed to the continuous optimization of trade structure and the accelerated conversion of new and old driving forces [1] - The use of bonded logistics for imports and exports grew rapidly, with an increase of 10.4%, becoming a new pillar for stable growth [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises solidified their position as the main force in foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 355.57 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, accounting for 52% of the province's total foreign trade value, an increase of 4.4 percentage points [1][2] Group 3: Market Diversification - ASEAN remains Liaoning's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade growing by 23.2%, indicating deepening economic cooperation [1] - Liaoning is actively exploring emerging markets, with imports and exports to Latin America and Africa increasing by 8.6% and 40.6%, respectively, showcasing significant cooperation potential, particularly with Africa [1] Group 4: Import Dynamics - The total import value reached 310.59 billion RMB, with a strong demand for consumer goods, particularly a 21.2% increase in seafood imports, reflecting a vibrant domestic market [2] Group 5: Overall Trade Resilience - Despite challenges, Liaoning's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and potential, characterized by a robust export engine, improved structure, and diversified partnerships [2]

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

Economic Data Overview - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9%[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9%[2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7%[2] Industrial Production Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value showed a slight slowdown compared to the previous value, with the monthly growth rate aligning with historical averages[3] - High-tech manufacturing sectors outperformed overall industrial growth, indicating a shift in production dynamics[3] - The annual industrial production growth rate is projected to stabilize around 5.8%, with potential constraints from "anti-involution" and a slight weakening in exports affecting December's production[3] Consumer Spending Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales in November was impacted by early online shopping promotions and diminishing subsidy effects, leading to a broader decline across most categories[4] - Notably, furniture, building materials, and home appliances were significantly affected, with automotive consumption dragging down overall growth by nearly 2 percentage points[4] - The annual retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.7%, with a focus on stimulating service consumption in the short term[4] Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in manufacturing, where negative growth persisted for five consecutive months[5] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of stabilization, with improvements in transportation and energy sectors, while water conservancy and public facilities continued to lag[5] - Real estate investment experienced a significant drop of -30.3% year-on-year, with ongoing declines in new construction and completion areas[5] Risk Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties may elevate market risk preferences, potentially disrupting economic stability[6] - Unexpected changes in economic conditions or policies could arise due to increasing volatility in overseas markets and domestic economic transitions[6]

一个冬日的下午，在湖南省湘潭经开区湖南凯利特泵业有限公司（以下简称"凯利特泵业"）的生产车间 里，一台全新的柴油机消防泵正在接受极端压力测试。经历耐静水压强度与综合性能双重考验时，泵壳 未发生任何变形或泄漏，核心部件在模拟高温浓烟环境下仍保持零故障运转，各项安全指标均通过 UL、FM国际认证——这台能在危急火场中扛起"生命通道"重任的应急装备，10年前还只是企业创始人 心中的雏形。 在几公里外的湘潭岳塘区电机电控产业园，湘潭华联电机有限公司（以下简称"华联电机"）的工程师正 在调试一台高转速电机，它的体积只有传统电机的一半，是适配无人机装备的"好搭子"。 在湘潭高新区的湖南华菱线缆（001208）股份有限公司（以下简称"华菱线缆"），一束束铜丝经过挤 出、绞制、编织等10多道工序环节后，将成为航空航天、轨道交通及高速机车、新能源设备等的"神经 脉络"。 如今的华菱线缆是国内电缆行业的"小巨人"和"制造业单项冠军"企业，凭借在特种电缆领域独树一帜的 技术优势与创新能力，在资本市场赢得了认可，而这背后是一个价值被重新发现的故事。 这三家企业的扎根地湘潭，自带厚重的工业基因。百年前，这里的机器轰鸣开启了湖南工业序章 ...

Economic Overview - November economic data shows a consistent trend with previous periods, indicating weakness in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while consumer confidence remains low[7] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, reflecting a significant fluctuation and pointing towards a need for improved supply-demand structure[7] - Retail sales growth in November dropped to 1.3%, influenced by previous high base effects and a decline in consumer confidence post "Double Eleven" promotions[7] Policy and Investment Insights - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, but the impact on investment growth may take time to materialize[7] - The focus on effective industrial investment is emphasized, with policies aiming for high-quality and sustainable growth rather than mere quantitative expansion[7] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility and promoting consumption are expected to gradually improve consumer sentiment[7] Production and Trade Dynamics - Industrial value-added output slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points, but high-tech industries showed a robust growth of 8.4%, indicating technology's crucial role in overall economic growth[7] - Export delivery value improved slightly from -2.1% to -0.1%, suggesting a narrowing of production fluctuations due to external trade conditions[7] Future Outlook - The market anticipates weaker growth in Q4 compared to Q3, with the expectation that the effects of new policies will take time to manifest, leading to continued economic challenges until year-end[7] - Despite current weaknesses, China's economic momentum remains strong, supported by counter-cyclical policies and a focus on domestic demand, particularly consumption[7]